2015 Dubai Carnival - Selections

1.33 in the run for a few quid.
Good to get off to a depressing start

good luck today george. looks a tough card, I like Layl in the 3,55. could be tough to catch. Like Ajwad in the 4.30. small bets for interest

Well done jockeyhunter

Just been mowed down, Barzalona dropped his whip the idiot

Good winner george.

Well done George/jockeyhunter

Only just seen the thread George nice to see it return hopefully be able to put up a few winners good luck!

It will soon be Thursday

Just had a quick look, nowt leaping off the page at me but should be able to come up with a couple of guesses

2 for today

Sholaan
Energia Fox

GL George

Running P / L: +6.5

3.55 Pit Stop 1pt EW @ 12-1

Caught the eye on more than one occasion when with Michael Halford,  shaping as though a stiffer test would suit and that he was up to winning off his mark when things panned out more favourably; steps up to 10f today, however there are some imponderables - new stable (trainer has had 3 places from 9 runners so far, including at Group 2 / Listed level), different surface (though did win his only start on an artificial surface, and sire's sole runner to date on the new surface won), he's returning from a 4 month break so fitness has to be taken on trust, and he appears the stable's second-string on jockey bookings.
He has been dropped 1lb and Cam Hardie takes off a further 3lb, so at a double-figure price, a chance is taken that he will handle the dirt and build on the promise he showed when with his previous yard.

3.55 Respect Me 1pt EW @ 40-1

Easy maiden winner on dirt at Al ain on his return from a break in November; has been disappointing on the face it since, however possible excuses on 2 occasions (trip / Listed company), so given a chance under potentially more suitable conditions, at a big price.

4.30 Zurigha 1 pt EW @ 16-1

Good record fresh having been first the past post on her first start on each of her 3 seasons to date (subsequently DQ'd after winning a Listed race on her reappearance last season); stable not renowned for having runners at the Carnival, and she has to prove herself over the trip, but efforts such as a strong finishing 4th in the French 1000gns suggest it shouldn't bother.

5.40 Zahee 1 pt EW @ 14-1

Hardly encouraging that super-Soumy jumps ship, but possible that he didn't take to the dirt when well beaten on his reappearance; 2-4 on turf, and is closely matched with stablemate Anaerobio on their running in a turf handicap at last year's Carnival; every chance on the figs if able to show his best form.

6.15 So Beautiful 1pt EW @ 33-1

I selected this fella last week on the basis that he was potentially well handicapped on the form he was showing 2 years back at the Carnival, and with his stable were in better form this time around he was worth risking at a price; to be frank, he didn't really show enough to justify being selected again, however because he was poorly positioned in a slowly run race, and he looks worth a try over today's 12f, I'm going to give him another chance.

6.15 Full Combat 1 pt EW @ 25-1

Put forward as a potential UAE Derby horse last season by his trainer, but after a promising reappearance over an inadequate trip, he failed to progress; a leap of faith is clearly required after another disappointing run on his reappearance, but a switch back to turf and step up in trip are both possible sources for improvement, so not forgetting that earlier promise a chance is taken at big odds.

You have to be 'Premiership' class to write guff and bluff like that!

Merhee 9        48 
Sholaan 1        46.5 
Beat Baby 8        45 
Speed Hawk 6        43.5 

Henry Clay 3        51.5 
Busker 1        51.5 
Robert The Painter10        50 
Fattsota 6        48.5 

Sefri 7        44.5 
Hunting Ground 1        43 
Cry Joy 10        42.5 
Street Act 6        38.5 

Pilote 7        52.5 
Steeler 5        51 
Our Channel 3        46.5 
Zurigha 9        43.5 

Tamarkuz 1        52.5 
Haatheq 10        52 
Samurai Sword 2        51.5 
Edu Querido 7        48.5 

Safety Check 2        59.5 
Shaishee 1        54 
Red Ray 7        52.5 
Anaerobio 5        51.5 

Jutland 8        51.5 
Saxo Jack 3        48.5 
Al Saham 4        48 
Earth Drummer 9        48 

One stand out.
GL

2.45 Merhee

2nd in this race last year off a mark of 105 after almost 6 month off the track.

"Soon led, kicked clear 2f out, ran on but headed final 55yds"

Today runs off a mark of 100 and has had a prep race over 7f just 2 weeks ago of a mark of 106.

"Soon led, headed 5f out, every chance 2f out, one pace final furlong"

More to follow:

Good luck GEORGE

Oi GEORGE.B,

What about me?

3.20 Energia El Gigante 

Just a big enough price to take a chance on. Could be anything on dirt after hacking up on its only run in what is by far the best time I can find for that race. Negative is the trainer's dire record here.

3.55 Hunting Ground

A lot better than these on its Southwell performances , just a question of whether the trip is on the sharp side.

Good luck all

afternoon George

2 plays for me today

3-20 Henry Clay

5-05 Haatheq

x2 singles + a dble

I backed Layl last Thursday for similar reasons

Beat Baby .Record after a lay-off reads 2-3-9 .

I think china spoke too soon, that was the cue for the trainer to have a winner

300/1 .WD anyone who found it and for sure somewhere some did .
Either way the folly of backing the so called favs continues to br the case.(handicaps)