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Thought I would have a go at one of these challenges and see what happens.
Each day try the ultimate mug bet of the lucky15. Stake £10 a line.
Betfair offer double the odds one winner.
Best odds guaranteed on runners.
10% bonus if all 4 win.
DAY ONE
17-Jun-14
13:00
Lucky 15 (x15) 17:20 Thirsk, 19:00 Brighton ...
70.35
Open --
17:20 Thirsk
Win - Head Space
Best odds
4/1 -- Open --
19:00 Brighton
Win - Choral Festival
Best odds
4/1 -- Open --
20:30 Brighton
Win - Darnathean
Best odds
10/3 -- Open --
20:40 Nottingham
Win - Raskova
Best odds
4/1 -- Open --
Max stake allowed £4.69 a line
Each day try the ultimate mug bet of the lucky15. Stake £10 a line.
Betfair offer double the odds one winner.
Best odds guaranteed on runners.
10% bonus if all 4 win.
DAY ONE
17-Jun-14
13:00
Lucky 15 (x15) 17:20 Thirsk, 19:00 Brighton ...
70.35
Open --
17:20 Thirsk
Win - Head Space
Best odds
4/1 -- Open --
19:00 Brighton
Win - Choral Festival
Best odds
4/1 -- Open --
20:30 Brighton
Win - Darnathean
Best odds
10/3 -- Open --
20:40 Nottingham
Win - Raskova
Best odds
4/1 -- Open --
Max stake allowed £4.69 a line
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Replies: 464
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u must be a mug to be allowed up to £4.69 a line.
my max is £0.47 per line same bet  |
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I assumed everyone is given the same offers on the sportsbook after the CEOs comments to analysts last week.
Why would you be offered less? All the prices I took as still available on the sportsbook. |
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One winner from four. Raskova 4/1 paid 8/1 due to double the odds being offered.
Total Actual Stake £70.35 Total Actual Return £42.21 Total Profit/Loss -£28.14 Actual Racing Levy (@10%) £2.81 If the total stake of £10 a line (£150) had been accepted Total Asked For Stake £150 Total Asked For Return £90 Total Asked For Profit/Loss -£60 Asked For Racing Levy (@10%) £6.00 Racing Industry so far down £3.19 due to bets caps. |
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frog2......you should send these figures to the gambling commission,
the minister of culture and sport, and trade descriptions, they bear out everything that is wrong with bookmaking in this country now. |
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In my experience the betfair sportbook often offers lower prices than elsewhere
E.g in the 3.05 at ascot today. betfair sportbook bet365 Anthem Alexander 4.0 4.5 Tiggy Wiggy 6.0 7.5 |
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DAY 2
18-Jun-14 11:28 Lucky 15 (x15) 13:50 Hamilton, 14:10 Uttoxeter ... 140.70 Open -- 13:50 Hamilton Win - Miami Carousel Best odds 4/1 -- Open -- 14:10 Uttoxeter Win - A Tail Of Intrigue Best odds 11/4 -- Open -- 14:30 Royal Ascot Win - Muwaary Best odds 5/1 -- Open -- 14:45 Uttoxeter Win - Fearless Leader Best odds 11/4 -- Open -- Max stake allowed £9.38 a line Only capped by 62p a line today. Maybe because I lost on day one? or maybe because the odds of the selections are shorter? |
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Your winning them over frog.
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Yesterday one winner from four again. Tail of Intrigue @ 11/4 paid 11/2 due to double the odds being offered.
Total Actual Stake £211.05 Total Actual Return £103.18 Total Profit/Loss -£107.87 Actual Racing Levy (@10%) £10.79 If the total stake of £10 a line (£150) had been accepted Total Asked For Stake £300 Total Asked For Return £155 Total Asked For Profit/Loss -£145 Asked For Racing Levy (@10%) £14.50 Racing Industry so far down £3.71 due to bets caps. |
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DAY THREE
19-Jun-14 11:58 Lucky 15 (x15) 16:45 Southwell, 17:20 Southwell ... 102.15 Open -- 16:45 Southwell Win - Two Shades Of Grey Best odds 6.50 -- Open -- 17:20 Southwell Win - Tahchee Best odds 3.75 -- Open -- 18:55 Lingfield Win - Crafted Best odds 5.00 -- Open -- 18:10 Ffos Las Win - Roll On Ruby Best odds 6.00 -- Open -- Max stake allowed £6.81 a line of requested £10 |
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The "mugs" with suitable funds are enticed from the Exchange.
Winners need not apply. |
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Strictly speaking the racing industry not down at all - there's no Levy paid on bets struck with offshore bookies.
At least Betfair - unlike every other operator - had the decency to make a voluntary payment roughly equal to what its Levy contribution would have been. http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2011/2011-06-14a.aspx |
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Two Shades Of Grey
Win 5/1 17:20 Sthl 19th Jun Tahchee Win 11/4 18:55 Ling 19th Jun Crafted Win 4/1 18:10 FfosL 19th Jun Roll On Ruby Win 9/2 Lucky 15 (£0.75 x 15) Bet Ref: O/0024680/0003799 £971.78 Close just done this bet, placed 240pm max allowed 75p a line. |
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75p a line to do the same mug bets????
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longbridge
19 Jun 14 14:00 Joined: 25 Nov 10 | Topic/replies: 369 | Blogger: longbridge's blog Strictly speaking the racing industry not down at all - there's no Levy paid on bets struck with offshore bookies. At least Betfair - unlike every other operator - had the decency to make a voluntary payment roughly equal to what its Levy contribution would have been. http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2011/2011-06-14a.aspx Betfair agreed in 2012 to pay 10.75% of racing revenue over the next five years despite being based offshore. Other firms, one of which tried to get Betfair punters to pay levy, do not as far as know. For this Betfair should be praised. They are by far the best operator of a bad bunch. Restricting accounts does cost racing. It costs racing because punters get frustrated with the racing product. Racing offers are made to lure in punters and then denied if people use them. The casinos and games then have those customers by the hook using the same online wallet. It also costs racing because low margin punters are being cut because they might turn a small profit. In the long term these punters are likely to be losers and boost the levy but cannot easily get on. Racing is being used as a shop window to get punters in to be cross sold games and other rubbish which have a constant margin with no levy. The racing industry needs to see this and not support things like FOBTs. |
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Yesterday one winner from four again. Crafted @ 4/1 paid 12/1 due to double the odds being offered on one winner plus best odds guaranteed (drifted to 6/1 sp). Another losing day for me and a winning day for Betfair and racing.
Total Actual Stake £313.20 Total Actual Return £191.71 Total Profit/Loss -£121.49 Actual Racing Levy (@10.75%) £13.06 If the total stake of £10 a line (£150) had been accepted Total Asked For Stake £450 Total Asked For Return £285 Total Asked For Profit/Loss -£165 Asked For Racing Levy (@10.75%) £17.74 Racing Industry so far down £4.68 due to bets caps. |
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DAY FOUR
20-Jun-14 10:59 Lucky 15 (x15) 14:10 Market Rasen, 16:45 Redcar ... 93.75 Open -- 14:10 Market Rasen Win - Early Applause Best odds 7/2 -- Open -- 16:45 Redcar Win - Aqua Ardens Best odds 5/2 -- Open -- 17:20 Redcar Win - Tanawar Best odds 6/1 -- Open -- 17:00 Royal Ascot Win - Hartnell Best odds 4/1 -- Open -- Max Stake Allowed £6.25 a line of the £10 requested |
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same bet placed, thou early app on mine only 3/1. was allowed 68p a line max. betplaced 11.33
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Are you in big profit on the sportsbook gnasher? Seems poor they limit you just to do the same mug bets they allow me to do for more.
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i wish i was. rarely use it to be honest. used to do a correct score/1st goalscorer bet when they were doing money back offers and odd golf bet for the majors. on the odd player when they the same price, its better with them than paying commision.
u have a 100% sportsbook account at mo, i obv am 10% |
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Mine definately not 100%. I was putting on £20 a line. One monday they took £18.95 a line on another losing Lucky15...
16-Jun-14 11:04 Lucky 15 (x15) 14:45 Carlisle, 15:45 Carlisle ... 275.85 Won 220.68 14:45 Carlisle Win - Elizabeth Ernest Best odds guaranteed 10/3 -- Lost -- 15:45 Carlisle Win - Pat's Legacy Best odds guaranteed 7/2 -- Lost -- 17:30 Newton Abbot Win - Bernisdale Best odds guaranteed 11/2 -- Won -- 19:35 Windsor Win - Breccbennach Best odds guaranteed 9/4 -- Lost -- |
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Fluked a couple of winners yesterday. Very lucky with Hartnell in the stewards at Ascot.
Total Actual Stake £406.95 Total Actual Return £465.46 Total Profit/Loss +£58.51 Actual Racing Levy (@10.75%) -£6.29 If the total stake of £10 a line (£150) had been accepted Total Asked For Stake £600 Total Asked For Return £723 Total Asked For Profit/Loss +£123 Asked For Racing Levy (@10.75%) -£13.22 Racing Industry so far up £6.93 due to bets caps. |
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DAY FIVE
21-Jun-14 10:35 Lucky 15 (x15) 15:55 Redcar, 16:50 Ayr ... 80.40 Open -- 15:55 Redcar Win - Online Alexander Best odds 6.00 -- Open -- 16:50 Ayr Win - Swan Song Best odds 4.00 -- Open -- 17:15 Newmarket Win - Shore Step Best odds 4.00 -- Open -- 20:50 Haydock Win - Pantoloni Best odds 8.00 -- Open -- Max Stake Allowed £5.36 a line of the £10 requested |
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No winners yesterday. One of the four horses was a non-runner so all the money on other three appart from one single returned.
Total Actual Stake £481.99 Total Actual Return £465.46 Total Profit/Loss -16.53 Actual Racing Levy (@10.75%) £1.78 If the total stake of £10 a line (£150) had been accepted Total Asked For Stake £735 Total Asked For Return £723 Total Asked For Profit/Loss -£12 Asked For Racing Levy (@10.75%) £1.29 Racing Industry so far up £0.49 due to bets caps. |
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DAY SIX
22-Jun-14 11:39 Lucky 15 (x15) 16:10 Pontefract, 16:40 Pontefract ... 86.70 Open -- 16:10 Pontefract Win - Herostatus Best odds 6.00 -- Open -- 16:40 Pontefract Win - Annawi Best odds 7.00 -- Open -- 14:20 Worcester Win - Manogue Supreme Best odds 7.50 -- Open -- 17:30 Hexham Win - Get Ready To Go Best odds 5.50 -- Open -- Max Stake Allowed £5.78 a line of the £10 requested |
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No winners again yesterday.
Total Actual Stake £568.69 Total Actual Return £465.46 Total Profit/Loss -103.23 Actual Racing Levy (@10.75%) £11.10 If the total stake of £10 a line (£150) had been accepted Total Asked For Stake £885 Total Asked For Return £723 Total Asked For Profit/Loss -£162 Asked For Racing Levy (@10.75%) £17.42 Racing Industry so far down £5.32 due to bets caps. |
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Attempted to place a £1 win Lucky 15 on the first four favourites at Chepstow:
Your stake(s) exceeds the maximum limit. Try the Exchange to place your bet(s). The same message pops up in a red box when I tried to place a £0.01 win Lucky 15 on the same four horses. |
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Very strange. So you are cut to zero?
At least we know with Betfair sportsbook all offers such as Best Odds Guaranteed should remain open to everyone. This is much better than other firms where the opportunity to bet BOG is regularly removed. 'There is something odd about bookmakers giving better value to customers where they know that the bookmaker only wins if the customer loses.' Breon Corcoran Betfair CEO 11/06/2014 |
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DAY SEVEN
23-Jun-14 12:17 Lucky 15 (x15) 19:50 Thirsk, 18:40 Windsor ... 80.40 Open -- 19:50 Thirsk Win - Hunting Ground Best odds 7/1 -- Open -- 18:40 Windsor Win - Louie de Palma Best odds 7/1 -- Open -- 20:40 Windsor Win - Stockhill Diva Best odds 6/4 -- Open -- 21:10 Windsor Win - Classical Art Best odds 11/4 -- Open -- Max Stake Allowed £5.36 a line of the £10 requested |
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Beat this one then
Murray v Goffin, Murray 3 - 0 max bet £5 |
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Strange isn't it? Free bets all over the sportsbook to get people in yet customers getting restricting as they lose.
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What is the point of this exercise? What is the point of this thread ?
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Thats a good question artie.
I guess I am interested to test and get a formal record to how an online bookmaker reacts to a type of client doing a traditional 'mug' bet. The margin on multiples is huge for the bookmakers if the odds on each outcome is in its favour as they compound (a four timer with a 10% margin in their favour becomes 34%). For this reason they should be willing to take the bets. The only reason they would not is because a punter is beating the price. But they offer best odds guaranteed on all selections so surely they are not bothered if you beat the price? Or is best odds guaranteed just a hook to get punters to sign up for a sportsbook and then taken away? The question then becomes why would an online bookmaker not take these bets to £10 stakes on horseracing? In my experience they do not take them overtime if the customer shows a hint that he might win. The implications of bookmakers restricting losing accounts is two-fold: 1. It directly reduces the levy because losing punters cannot get their stakes on so they lose less on horseracing. 2. It puts people off betting on racing so they lose their money on something else that does not attract the levy. ................. The figures from the gambling commission make grim reading for racing fans. We all know that racing supports FOBTs because they believe more racing and more betting shops is the answer. But looking at the LBO gross gambling yield figures for football and racing football GGY (£m) 2008/09 224.94 2009/10 155.29 2010/11 273.99 2011/12 233.55 2012/13 293.11 racing GGY (£m) 2008/09 843.79 2009/10 768.42 2010/11 704.82 2011/12 675.06 2012/13 697.88 In betting shops racing is dropping while soccer is rising. More worryingly online for UK online bookies (which must mainly be b365 because others are offshore until dec 2014) show football GGY (£m) 2009/10 172.19 2010/11 271.18 2011/12 281.23 2012/13 266.96 horseracing GGY (£m) 2009/10 201.29 2010/11 105.97 2011/12 92.21 2012/13 118.44 Football well up and racing well down. Racing was number 1 in 09/10 now it produces under a half of the soccer revenues. According the figures GGY online for tennis doubled the year 2012/13 from £68.81m to £121.93m. If this is repeated with the other bookies tennis is now bigger than horseracing online in the UK. I see why the bookies do it. Inplay football and tennis is a maths equation no different from a roulette wheel. Its easy money for them once the data feeds and models are up and running. Racing is more problematic for them to calculate the true odds and inplay is not possible. Racing also has a levy that other sports do not. Is the real reason losing racing customers are cut because the firms want to steer punters to more predicable non-levy products? At the same time racing is used to hook new customers to get them onto the sportsbook/casino websites? Anyway that what I want to see. If a keep losing will I be allowed bigger stakes on my Lucky 15 bets? If I have a winner will may stakes be further cut? |
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@frog2: Yes. I am cut to zero for every bet on the Betfair Sportsbook. I lasted about a week at full stakes on horse racing, which was then cut to a maximum take out of a tenner. Football and cricket, the other two sports on which I bet, went the same way after a few weeks. Soon after that, about 18 months ago, I was cut to zero on every sport, including all those on which I'd never had a bet.
Nothing to do with arbing, though I wish I had done arbs in retrospect. Heaven knows the Betfair Sportsbook offered plenty of them. Perhaps it still does. But I was simply treating the Betfair Sportsbook prices the way I do every bookmaker's: have a bet when they're out-of-line and wrong on sports about which I think I know something. |
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Interesting post that Frog. There's been countless threads on the rationale behind bookmakers' willingness to promote on line gaming or less traditional sports betting over racing.
Personally I don't see it as any more complicated than their being able to cash in on the more predictable profits of risk averse markets, and particularly products - although the side effect of reduced levy payments is presumably an advantage. With regards to sports betting such as football for example, I have no doubt that some punters make plenty. But how many people truly have a competitive advantage in terms of knowledge over the bookmaker or anyone else. And on line gaming is a no brainer for bookies. I think online casinos will be banned eventually as the number of problem gamblers becomes intolerable to society as a whole. |
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Sorry. My last post should have said that it was about 8 months ago that all my Sportsbook bets were cut to zero, not 18 months. It was after they voided a large winning inplay football bet on a friendly between England and Brazil on the grounds of palpable error. I didn't complain, because I wanted to keep on the right side of them, but it didn't make any difference.
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far too much discipline for the books Screaming, by the sound of it...
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Discipline maybe, memory definitely not ...
Found the e-mail over the voided bet incident. The game was a Brazil vs Italy friendly 12 months ago. And it wasn't voided, but paid out at a lousy price instead: I am writing to you in regards to the sportsbook bets you placed last night (22/06/2013) on the Brazil v Italy match odds markets. Unfortunately due to a palpable error in pricing this market you were able to back Brazil when they were 1-0 up at odds which reflect that they were actually 1-0 down. We have had to settle your bets at the correct price as the displayed price of 6.5 was not an accurate reflection of the market. The price has been amended to 1.34 to reflect the true odds at the time. We are covered for such incidents like this in our terms and conditions I have attached below for your attention. Errors · Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets. However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either: a. materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or b. clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. · To establish the ‘correct price’, Betfair will consider prices available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made, including the prices offered by other major betting operators. http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Sportsbook.Rules.And.Regulations/ |
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We are used to betting on Betfair where if we make a mistake putting in the odds we get punished because the bet stands. With the x-matcher in place there is zero chance of cancelling the bet.
The bookmakers operate in a different world. They can cancel any mistakes. If you are seen as someone who tries to exploit errors they will not want your business because they are the counterparty. |
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Two winners yesterday.
Total Actual Stake £649.09 Total Actual Return £689.24 Total Profit/Loss +40.15 Actual Racing Levy (@10.75%) -£7.03 If the total stake of £10 a line (£150) had been accepted Total Asked For Stake £1035 Total Asked For Return £1140.50 Total Asked For Profit/Loss +105.50 Asked For Racing Levy (@10.75%) -£11.34 Racing Industry so far up £7.02 due to bets caps. |