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3.00 lingfield Stoute horse
3.00 lingfield Stoute horse
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Replies: 119
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that's fair enough
but you wont get many mdns with debut form like that in a class 6 at much bigger than 6/4 this season, not in a class 6. thats a certainty.  |
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not the sort of price i play at,but to be fair to the OP,the animal would probably only have to run to a mark of 74/75(obviously we dont know about the Botti horse)
so good luck Gman |
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Yes, strictly on the book you are correct. But my whole point is that one has no idea how any horse from this yard will run. Horses going a little forward, then two steps back, up and down all the time. To back at 6/4 everything has to be right and in this case the single biggest factor in backing a horse (the trainer) is a huge negative.
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^ and his debut form is already up and above that mark,i should have added
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agreed striding-
not sure i buy the out of form argument... he's only had one runner this year and it won... not sure that's enough form to go on to say in or out of form... |
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45 comments on a lowly maiden at lingfield - good effort nontheless
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well i did show that even when you think the yard was dire, the strike rate last year was 23%.
also that stoute likes to run good 2yos on the july course (50% of these have won as 3yos fto!) and that the form even if the horse has stood still all winter is hard to argue again it being rated in the 80's i think the price at 2.8 is very fair but hey we all have different views, what makes this game so interesting |
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*23% last year with 3yo mdns
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Well he's 100% so far ... he can't get any better
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@gman500: When a yard has been way out of form for several seasons would it not make sense to wait for a turn around in fortunes before deciding that they are no longer out of form??????????
Personally I would need to see systematic progression over at least a month or two of several runners from the yard before I would suggest it was no longer out of form. Avoid out of form stables until there is strong evidence that they are back in business. |
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artic admiral good price and the most experienced runner gl
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Gl road runner. sure to run its race and will be the yardstick... one or two have better form in the book
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Reasons not to back it.
1 Been gelded,so clearly not 100% straightforward. 2 Stable usually slow to start. 3 Looks on breeding to want 10furlongs plus. 4 And last but not least,why didnt it run again after its debut. I wouldnt be backing it thats for sure and if it gets as short as 2.5 I will be laying it. |
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you've talked me out of backing it Frank
obviously knew that sire influence was more stamina, didn't check it out though. 3-51 a mile or less sir percy progeny that has to be a big concern good post |
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*that stat as 3yos
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so it shows enough speed over 6f but it ain't got enough speed for 7f...
great reasoning stridingedge.... go to the top of the dunces class for that one tbh. |
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lol
2 to 3 is a long time for a horse with this progeny  |
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*obviously on results
sir percy 10f-13f 109 23 21.10% 82.64 56 51.38% and 3-51 over 7f or less to me thats a big doubt, one i should have looked at 1st tbh! i don't mind backing down, better to do that sometimes and admit a mistaken judgement than plough on regardless, especially this sort of price! |
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oh and nice attitude there hibby
cheers! |
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oh fk...a SIRE STATS man....
goodnight. |
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yes obviously just a fluke that the record shows a big profit 10f plus and a big loss 7f or less as 3yo sir percy
if i just keep backing them they'll come good eventually i made a mistake it happens, at least i admit them not like some of the stuffy people on here. |
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I love the way we all think so differently.
Racing will never die and bookies will always be rich. |
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only concern is the trip 1m+ would have been ideal... hope can get away with 7f today - showed plenty of speed on debut
as i said earlier |
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all will be revealed in approx 15 mins
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gl anyway mate, i really hope you collect
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just remember Kohlaan was pulled in front of stewards last time...
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just remember...before anyone MIS-QUOTES me...
the SMS horse could easily win this imv... but he wouldn't be a bet for me at around 2.9.... (just in case it wins and some smart-@rse tells me how wrong i was).... |
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im on, stoute ryan moore lingers enough said, not bad start to season 1 runner 1 winner lets hope the 100% continues!
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gift of silence 42/1 back to lay for me
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It's a good job this isn't a beauty contest, or Stoute's won't be winning anything
 Kohlaan for me at the prices, btw |
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If my Auntie had balls she'd be my Uncle
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bet the top two get beat here
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wd gman
defo needs extra trip |
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wd gman
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let one go there but wasn't confident of trip
just got there |
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oioioio
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GEE..the AW king
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wd GMan
Happy Hibby - clueless, keep your big gob shut imo |
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your reasoning was utterly dreadful there stridingedge....
i'm glad it cost you tbh. |
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gman |