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just did a fair write up on this horse and betfair decided to refresh my page so its lost. any long and short of it is i'm backing this animal - had it at 6-4 best price in my book. Bottis will have to be very special to beat this.
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Gl, gman.
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cheers saddo. only concern is the trip 1m+ would have been ideal... hope can get away with 7f today - showed plenty of speed on debut
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came there swinging on it's debut....found very little off the bridle despite getting a few cracks...
head carriage looked iffy to me and he hung left... can't remember if the mother has produced anything else but something tells me she has... i wasn't particularly a fan of her anyway tbh... wide draw today... looks more of a handicap project to me.... certainly wouldn't have it as a 6-4 chance.... a race to watch imv... |
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oh and clearly had some issues as you'd have expected a 2nd run at least after making his debut in july...
maybe they gelded him after that run....? not one i'd be backing today at these prices that's for sure... |
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Haven't looked at the race, gman, main fancy today is Sam Spade in the last, 65 looks a fair mark imo, but price has gone.
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I've looked at a few in this race
STOUTE lacks LB (long break) wins APRIL at Linga in Mdn Stakes HORSE POS S.P Flag Lieutentant 5 1.63 Velvet valley 6 3.50 Cabal 2 1.63 Commend 2 4.50 BOTTI hasn't got a good FTO strike rate in AW mdn stks at LINGA Vettorenjoy (GB) WON Infortual 3 Eastern Amour 10 Raving Monsun 8 Golden Share 5 Kholaan - price drifting like a barge A maiden at the lowest grade and the likes of Stoute never used to race many at this level - but had a couple of wins last year Pistol 2 Diamond Dame WON Strident Force 3 Maria's Choice WON Revered Citizen 2 (data relatesto 3yo's) |
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are they gonna run Kohlaan for a handicap mark here?
7 looks a big price if not imo |
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I would never let that "third run" business put me off if I thought one had a chance.
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it's just something numpty pundits roll out trying to show us how clever they are saddo...
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kohlaan hasn't learnt the game yet - if you were going to back it probably worth waiting a furlong to see if the head has dropped.
Hibby - mother hasn't produced anything else. think you are unfair re head carriage - think it was green and wide and didn't really know what was going on. I make it that the botti horse has to run to 80ish to beat this. On debut quite a stiff ask. |
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i think this is the mare's first foal tbh...
it might well bolt up but couldn't back it myself... |
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aye..just realised it was the 1st foal gman....
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head carriage...hanging left...gelded (not sure when but not a great sign after only 1 run)....
3 negatives are enough for me at the price it is gman... it might be the next TROY for all i know tho... |
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Ok - up to you. when you look at the opposition thats how i priced up 6-4. 2-1+ on betfair appealed to me
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if it was around 5-1 i might think about backing the SMS horse gman...
too many negatives for me to be backing it at the price it is atm.... not saying it can't or won't win tho... clearly the horse ain't useless.... |
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agree re sam spade saddo. was following that animals in maidens. got pulled out of one last weekk..... handicap job here... handiwork 4.30 has similar profile - being a motivator step up to 12f looks ideal for the handicap debut.
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so how do you price up the field?
...... TG 5-1..... |
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the race is too hard for me to even bother pricing up gman...
no idea how good the BOTTY horse is for starters... |
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These races give e/w value and I've had a little bet on Gift Of Silence (overpriced with Kohlaan on lto result) and even Born To Run's last race has seen some nice results with the 4 in front all in the frame (2 winners) when stepped up in trip nto ....
Good Luck all |
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laid the botti horse at 6-5.thought it was way too short first time out.alot of the yards horses are big drifters if they are punted heavily initially
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yeah I think you're right Saddo, only slight worry is he's a gelding so HC's are surely gonna be his bag
plus Andrea's on board and I just dont trust her  |
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happyhibby
surely the collateral form of the mdn the stoute horse ran in suggests it should be favoutite here. that race is well above average and botti's will have to be very straight on debut in all probability to be superior today (which of course is possible). however you look at it for the early weeks of the season, the stoute horse is bringing a very decent level of form to the table. you'd expect the horse would have a good chance of progressing this year being by sir percy. if you look at subsequent ratings of the other top 7 finishers in that race winner 105 2nd 88 3rd 85 4th stoutes horse 5th 83 6th 72 7th 75 i actually thought the stoute horse would be nearer evens with the obvious unknown being botti's debutant! |
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be very interested to see how this betting pans out up to the off
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Stoute has been alarmingly out of form for a few years now. I don't care if it wins by half the track, you would want your head examined to back a horse at 6/4 from a yard operating so far below it's best for such a prolonged period. The vast majority of Stoute horses over the last few years failed to progress with anything like the specific patterns that horses from that yard usually progress.
It takes more than a few Maiden winners to determine if a yard like that is back. You judge it from the hardcore handicappers that progress through the summer from 80 to 100+. Stoute has hardly had any of these the last few years, in a normal year he has many. It's a yard to watch right now, not back at 6/4. |
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just as a matter of interest i had a look to see what types stoute usually runs his 2yos first time to then place them to win on debut as 3yos (for their 2nd run)
his best course to run a once raced 2yo to progress as a winning 3yo fto are newmarket july course ( where todays runner began) 8-16 and leicester 8-20. of course each horse needs taking on its merits but again to me this suggests he rates this horse well above average |
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would you want your head examined to back a horse you've never seen before
stoute was 23% with 3yo mdn last year, thats hardly disasterous, his standards were so high he has undoubtedly dropped down a bit in recent years but put it in the context of this race. |
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Has a class 6 race ever been debated this much before
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gamerawins nose, the stoute stable has been out of form for years he has no chance of winning this class 6 maiden
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Good Luck Gee, left the race alone...you know why
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it's good to hear some reasoning from people for a change even if i don't agree with some of it!
that's partly my point virgin a trainer like stoute has a horse in a lowly mdn with form already worth an 80+ mark and 6/4 is madness against an unraced horse? |
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How can people complain about its head carriage after 1 run it was green as grass ffs. Newmarket a tough track for any 2 yr old also
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good debate fellas. I'm not changing my mind - think 6-4 and above represents value in this race. May not be right about this one but happy to take my chances at the price.
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23% last year? To back at 6/4 you would nearly want a 50% strike rate.
Hannon, Varian, Botti, Balding all have runners. Ok prob still a weak race and he prob wants to start with a winner but seriously you won't get rich backing 6/4 shots from a yard operating way way way below it's best for several years. Forget about maiden stats. There has been something WRONG with the horses in the yard for a few years. This is the 1st runner this season and it is 6/4 and people are forming a q. This is why bookies drive Jaguars and live in mansions. Let him win if he wants. |
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win or lose gman i think the price is fine
i've heard nothing to dissuade me of that. gl mate |
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what a ridiculous post gamerawins
to back at 6/4 you'd want a 50% strike rate WTF  the strike rate was at all prices |
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gl m8
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if the horse was unraced or was in an average race on debut i could agree with you on price
but this horses first run is very strong, exceptionally so for this grade of race in the early weeks of the season |
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for me there was a change of gear at Newmarket from the Stoute horse that will really suit Leafy, I think he'll go really well an I can see why you'd get involved 6/4 looks fair at the prices Im taking a chance on Kohlaan though
gl gman  |
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Dude.
We are on different pages. Thats ok. I hope he wins for you but it wouldn't be my style. gl |