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just did a fair write up on this horse and betfair decided to refresh my page so its lost. any long and short of it is i'm backing this animal - had it at 6-4 best price in my book. Bottis will have to be very special to beat this.
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laid the botti horse at 6-5.thought it was way too short first time out.alot of the yards horses are big drifters if they are punted heavily initially
yeah I think you're right Saddo, only slight worry is he's a gelding so HC's are surely gonna be his bag
plus Andrea's on board and I just dont trust her
plus Andrea's on board and I just dont trust her
happyhibby
surely the collateral form of the mdn the stoute horse ran in suggests it should be favoutite here. that race is well above average and botti's will have to be very straight on debut in all probability to be superior today (which of course is possible).
however you look at it for the early weeks of the season, the stoute horse is bringing a very decent level of form to the table. you'd expect the horse would have a good chance of progressing this year being by sir percy.
if you look at subsequent ratings of the other top 7 finishers in that race
winner 105
2nd 88
3rd 85
4th stoutes horse
5th 83
6th 72
7th 75
i actually thought the stoute horse would be nearer evens with the obvious unknown being botti's debutant!
surely the collateral form of the mdn the stoute horse ran in suggests it should be favoutite here. that race is well above average and botti's will have to be very straight on debut in all probability to be superior today (which of course is possible).
however you look at it for the early weeks of the season, the stoute horse is bringing a very decent level of form to the table. you'd expect the horse would have a good chance of progressing this year being by sir percy.
if you look at subsequent ratings of the other top 7 finishers in that race
winner 105
2nd 88
3rd 85
4th stoutes horse
5th 83
6th 72
7th 75
i actually thought the stoute horse would be nearer evens with the obvious unknown being botti's debutant!
be very interested to see how this betting pans out up to the off
Stoute has been alarmingly out of form for a few years now. I don't care if it wins by half the track, you would want your head examined to back a horse at 6/4 from a yard operating so far below it's best for such a prolonged period. The vast majority of Stoute horses over the last few years failed to progress with anything like the specific patterns that horses from that yard usually progress.
It takes more than a few Maiden winners to determine if a yard like that is back. You judge it from the hardcore handicappers that progress through the summer from 80 to 100+. Stoute has hardly had any of these the last few years, in a normal year he has many.
It's a yard to watch right now, not back at 6/4.
It takes more than a few Maiden winners to determine if a yard like that is back. You judge it from the hardcore handicappers that progress through the summer from 80 to 100+. Stoute has hardly had any of these the last few years, in a normal year he has many.
It's a yard to watch right now, not back at 6/4.
just as a matter of interest i had a look to see what types stoute usually runs his 2yos first time to then place them to win on debut as 3yos (for their 2nd run)
his best course to run a once raced 2yo to progress as a winning 3yo fto are newmarket july course ( where todays runner began) 8-16 and leicester 8-20.
of course each horse needs taking on its merits but again to me this suggests he rates this horse well above average
his best course to run a once raced 2yo to progress as a winning 3yo fto are newmarket july course ( where todays runner began) 8-16 and leicester 8-20.
of course each horse needs taking on its merits but again to me this suggests he rates this horse well above average
would you want your head examined to back a horse you've never seen before
stoute was 23% with 3yo mdn last year, thats hardly disasterous, his standards were so high he has undoubtedly dropped down a bit in recent years but put it in the context of this race.
stoute was 23% with 3yo mdn last year, thats hardly disasterous, his standards were so high he has undoubtedly dropped down a bit in recent years but put it in the context of this race.
gamerawins nose, the stoute stable has been out of form for years he has no chance of winning this class 6 maiden
it's good to hear some reasoning from people for a change even if i don't agree with some of it!
that's partly my point virgin a trainer like stoute has a horse in a lowly mdn with form already worth an 80+ mark and 6/4 is madness against an unraced horse?
that's partly my point virgin a trainer like stoute has a horse in a lowly mdn with form already worth an 80+ mark and 6/4 is madness against an unraced horse?
How can people complain about its head carriage after 1 run it was green as grass ffs. Newmarket a tough track for any 2 yr old also
good debate fellas. I'm not changing my mind - think 6-4 and above represents value in this race. May not be right about this one but happy to take my chances at the price.
23% last year? To back at 6/4 you would nearly want a 50% strike rate.
Hannon, Varian, Botti, Balding all have runners. Ok prob still a weak race and he prob wants to start with a winner but seriously you won't get rich backing 6/4 shots from a yard operating way way way below it's best for several years. Forget about maiden stats. There has been something WRONG with the horses in the yard for a few years. This is the 1st runner this season and it is 6/4 and people are forming a q.
This is why bookies drive Jaguars and live in mansions.
Let him win if he wants.
Hannon, Varian, Botti, Balding all have runners. Ok prob still a weak race and he prob wants to start with a winner but seriously you won't get rich backing 6/4 shots from a yard operating way way way below it's best for several years. Forget about maiden stats. There has been something WRONG with the horses in the yard for a few years. This is the 1st runner this season and it is 6/4 and people are forming a q.
This is why bookies drive Jaguars and live in mansions.
Let him win if he wants.
win or lose gman i think the price is fine
i've heard nothing to dissuade me of that.
gl mate
i've heard nothing to dissuade me of that.
gl mate
what a ridiculous post gamerawins
to back at 6/4 you'd want a 50% strike rate WTF
the strike rate was at all prices
to back at 6/4 you'd want a 50% strike rate WTF
the strike rate was at all prices
if the horse was unraced or was in an average race on debut i could agree with you on price
but this horses first run is very strong, exceptionally so for this grade of race in the early weeks of the season
but this horses first run is very strong, exceptionally so for this grade of race in the early weeks of the season
for me there was a change of gear at Newmarket from the Stoute horse that will really suit Leafy, I think he'll go really well an I can see why you'd get involved 6/4 looks fair at the prices Im taking a chance on Kohlaan though
gl gman
gl gman
Dude.
We are on different pages.
Thats ok.
I hope he wins for you but it wouldn't be my style.
gl
We are on different pages.
Thats ok.
I hope he wins for you but it wouldn't be my style.
gl
that's fair enough
but you wont get many mdns with debut form like that in a class 6 at much bigger than 6/4 this season, not in a class 6. thats a certainty.
but you wont get many mdns with debut form like that in a class 6 at much bigger than 6/4 this season, not in a class 6. thats a certainty.
not the sort of price i play at,but to be fair to the OP,the animal would probably only have to run to a mark of 74/75(obviously we dont know about the Botti horse)
so good luck Gman
so good luck Gman
Yes, strictly on the book you are correct. But my whole point is that one has no idea how any horse from this yard will run. Horses going a little forward, then two steps back, up and down all the time. To back at 6/4 everything has to be right and in this case the single biggest factor in backing a horse (the trainer) is a huge negative.
^ and his debut form is already up and above that mark,i should have added
agreed striding-
not sure i buy the out of form argument... he's only had one runner this year and it won... not sure that's enough form to go on to say in or out of form...
not sure i buy the out of form argument... he's only had one runner this year and it won... not sure that's enough form to go on to say in or out of form...
45 comments on a lowly maiden at lingfield - good effort nontheless
well i did show that even when you think the yard was dire, the strike rate last year was 23%.
also that stoute likes to run good 2yos on the july course (50% of these have won as 3yos fto!)
and that the form even if the horse has stood still all winter is hard to argue again it being rated in the 80's
i think the price at 2.8 is very fair but hey we all have different views, what makes this game so interesting
also that stoute likes to run good 2yos on the july course (50% of these have won as 3yos fto!)
and that the form even if the horse has stood still all winter is hard to argue again it being rated in the 80's
i think the price at 2.8 is very fair but hey we all have different views, what makes this game so interesting
@gman500: When a yard has been way out of form for several seasons would it not make sense to wait for a turn around in fortunes before deciding that they are no longer out of form??????????
Personally I would need to see systematic progression over at least a month or two of several runners from the yard before I would suggest it was no longer out of form.
Avoid out of form stables until there is strong evidence that they are back in business.
Personally I would need to see systematic progression over at least a month or two of several runners from the yard before I would suggest it was no longer out of form.
Avoid out of form stables until there is strong evidence that they are back in business.
artic admiral good price and the most experienced runner gl
Gl road runner. sure to run its race and will be the yardstick... one or two have better form in the book
Reasons not to back it.
1 Been gelded,so clearly not 100% straightforward.
2 Stable usually slow to start.
3 Looks on breeding to want 10furlongs plus.
4 And last but not least,why didnt it run again after its debut.
I wouldnt be backing it thats for sure and if it gets as short as 2.5 I will be laying it.
1 Been gelded,so clearly not 100% straightforward.
2 Stable usually slow to start.
3 Looks on breeding to want 10furlongs plus.
4 And last but not least,why didnt it run again after its debut.
I wouldnt be backing it thats for sure and if it gets as short as 2.5 I will be laying it.
you've talked me out of backing it Frank
obviously knew that sire influence was more stamina, didn't check it out though.
3-51 a mile or less sir percy progeny
that has to be a big concern
good post
obviously knew that sire influence was more stamina, didn't check it out though.
3-51 a mile or less sir percy progeny
that has to be a big concern
good post
so it shows enough speed over 6f but it ain't got enough speed for 7f...
great reasoning stridingedge....
go to the top of the dunces class for that one tbh.
great reasoning stridingedge....
go to the top of the dunces class for that one tbh.
lol
2 to 3 is a long time for a horse with this progeny
2 to 3 is a long time for a horse with this progeny
*obviously on results
sir percy 10f-13f
109 23 21.10% 82.64 56 51.38%
and 3-51 over 7f or less
to me thats a big doubt, one i should have looked at 1st tbh!
i don't mind backing down, better to do that sometimes and admit a mistaken judgement than plough on regardless, especially this sort of price!
sir percy 10f-13f
109 23 21.10% 82.64 56 51.38%
and 3-51 over 7f or less
to me thats a big doubt, one i should have looked at 1st tbh!
i don't mind backing down, better to do that sometimes and admit a mistaken judgement than plough on regardless, especially this sort of price!
yes obviously just a fluke that the record shows a big profit 10f plus and a big loss 7f or less as 3yo sir percy
if i just keep backing them they'll come good eventually
i made a mistake it happens, at least i admit them not like some of the stuffy people on here.
if i just keep backing them they'll come good eventually
i made a mistake it happens, at least i admit them not like some of the stuffy people on here.
I love the way we all think so differently.
Racing will never die and bookies will always be rich.
Racing will never die and bookies will always be rich.
only concern is the trip 1m+ would have been ideal... hope can get away with 7f today - showed plenty of speed on debut
as i said earlier
as i said earlier
just remember Kohlaan was pulled in front of stewards last time...
just remember...before anyone MIS-QUOTES me...
the SMS horse could easily win this imv...
but he wouldn't be a bet for me at around 2.9....
(just in case it wins and some smart-@rse tells me how wrong i was)....
the SMS horse could easily win this imv...
but he wouldn't be a bet for me at around 2.9....
(just in case it wins and some smart-@rse tells me how wrong i was)....
im on, stoute ryan moore lingers enough said, not bad start to season 1 runner 1 winner lets hope the 100% continues!
It's a good job this isn't a beauty contest, or Stoute's won't be winning anything
Kohlaan for me at the prices, btw
Kohlaan for me at the prices, btw
let one go there but wasn't confident of trip
just got there
just got there
wd GMan
Happy Hibby - clueless, keep your big gob shut imo
Happy Hibby - clueless, keep your big gob shut imo
your reasoning was utterly dreadful there stridingedge....
i'm glad it cost you tbh.
i'm glad it cost you tbh.
personally i didn't like that performance at all....
head all over the place...didn't look too keen imv...
rancid race imv.
head all over the place...didn't look too keen imv...
rancid race imv.
HappyHibby 03 Apr 13 15:05
your reasoning was utterly dreadful there stridingedge....
i'm glad it cost you tbh.
you utter pr1ck, had a big doubt of trip when looking at stats so backed out it needed virtually every yard of that 7f!
your reasoning was utterly dreadful there stridingedge....
i'm glad it cost you tbh.
you utter pr1ck, had a big doubt of trip when looking at stats so backed out it needed virtually every yard of that 7f!
hippy you need to get a grip
took time to get going but was going on at the line
my other reasoning as a whole on this thread was upheld ie trainer is in poor form, and the positives with his july course runners as 2yo turning out to win fto as 3yos
christ this place is fcking irritating!
took time to get going but was going on at the line
my other reasoning as a whole on this thread was upheld ie trainer is in poor form, and the positives with his july course runners as 2yo turning out to win fto as 3yos
christ this place is fcking irritating!
Horse is a pig, head all over the place, thats the Mark of Esteem blood coming through. Only won as the 2nd faded in last 50 yards otherwise wouldn't of gone by, it was all in his head, could of won at 6f too if he had a good attitude.
And no, Stoute is not back in form. A long long long way to go to prove that.
And no, Stoute is not back in form. A long long long way to go to prove that.
shows enough speed over 6f in a decent newmarket maiden but it's not got enough speed to win a rancid auction maiden at lingfield in early april....????
with reasoning like that you deserve to go skint imv...
SIRE STATS cost you there...bad luck eh.
with reasoning like that you deserve to go skint imv...
SIRE STATS cost you there...bad luck eh.
aand with all that you thought it was a poor price at 2.9 ROFL
i bigged up the horse with clear reasoning then was worried trip may be too short at last minute, i dont back under 4.0 very often and this doubt put me off.
but i'm the mUG
priceless
i bigged up the horse with clear reasoning then was worried trip may be too short at last minute, i dont back under 4.0 very often and this doubt put me off.
but i'm the mUG
priceless
on to the next one fellas.... handiwork 4.30.... please tell me trip isn't ideal today
it took virtually all that race to get going as it was
chuffed it won for GMAN and others but people like the hibbies of this world want a downer on it all.
you can have the last word, i'm happy with my initial judgement here, it wont be the first winner i back out of this season. dont deserve the abuse.
chuffed it won for GMAN and others but people like the hibbies of this world want a downer on it all.
you can have the last word, i'm happy with my initial judgement here, it wont be the first winner i back out of this season. dont deserve the abuse.
chin up stridingedge...
i'm sure your SIRE STATS reasoning will come good eventually...
i'm sure your SIRE STATS reasoning will come good eventually...
too much bickering on this thread, that's what you get when gay punters have a discussion. #knickerswellandtrulytwisted
i just can't be @rsed with these SIRE STATS numpties...that's all.
horse will only improve for that run. I expect a lowish mark in the region of 73-75. People say it looked like a pig.... hmmmm when he pulled the stick it picked up. 10f+ will be it's optimum trip and i wouldn't rule out coming on plenty for that outing.
Let's see where it goes next but very much doubt you'll ever see it over 7f again.
Let's see where it goes next but very much doubt you'll ever see it over 7f again.
only horse to take from that race is the Botti horse - badly drawn, green as grass, trapped wide and not given hard time. The rest are either poor or dodepots
wd gman,like many i thought he had the form to win but couldn't bring myself to back it at the prices.
Btw,we are short of decent threads on here nowdays,why does a decent thread like this have to turn into the school playground?
Btw,we are short of decent threads on here nowdays,why does a decent thread like this have to turn into the school playground?
i think because ost of us can have a debate but there are plenty who feel the need to throw abuse for very little reason.
I see most of the abuse started after result of race.
Was it sour grapes?
Can never understand why people get so angry on here.
It's not good for heart & health to be angry.
On the Stoute issue...
2 years ago it was the firm ground - he couldn't gallop his horses
Last year it was the heavy ground.
This year may prove a return to winners.
Sir John Hawkwood is one I'm waiting for.
Was it sour grapes?
Can never understand why people get so angry on here.
It's not good for heart & health to be angry.
On the Stoute issue...
2 years ago it was the firm ground - he couldn't gallop his horses
Last year it was the heavy ground.
This year may prove a return to winners.
Sir John Hawkwood is one I'm waiting for.
Not sure. Have him lined up for B (class 2) Hcp early in season.
His last run reminded me when watching 4yo Modun winning at Newbury (April) coming from last to first with a sweeping run. I thought then that Modun would land a B hcp but only came close with two 2nds, but then won AW G3 race.
SJH was in similar position on final run but when pulled out for run did not have speed. It could have been ground or end of season blues?
This one has already landed 3yoBhcp and may progress this season.
I presume you have Ebor in mind for him?
His past Ebor runners aren't convincing and Clerkenwell won as 3yo
Ballet Prince(IRE) 0 25.00
Embracing 8 7.00
Blushing Flame(USA) 0 12.00
Clerkenwell(USA) 1 8.50
Mohawk River(IRE) 5 7.00
Purist 0 9.00
Samasakhan(IRE) 5 7.00
Procedure(USA) 6 2.00
Biennale(IRE) 5 16.00
Alva Glen(USA) 6 12.00
Cover Up(IRE) 4 11.00
Researched (IRE) 8 11.00
Warringah (GB) 5 8.50
Modun 4 7.00
Blissful Moment 9 10.00
His last run reminded me when watching 4yo Modun winning at Newbury (April) coming from last to first with a sweeping run. I thought then that Modun would land a B hcp but only came close with two 2nds, but then won AW G3 race.
SJH was in similar position on final run but when pulled out for run did not have speed. It could have been ground or end of season blues?
This one has already landed 3yoBhcp and may progress this season.
I presume you have Ebor in mind for him?
His past Ebor runners aren't convincing and Clerkenwell won as 3yo
Ballet Prince(IRE) 0 25.00
Embracing 8 7.00
Blushing Flame(USA) 0 12.00
Clerkenwell(USA) 1 8.50
Mohawk River(IRE) 5 7.00
Purist 0 9.00
Samasakhan(IRE) 5 7.00
Procedure(USA) 6 2.00
Biennale(IRE) 5 16.00
Alva Glen(USA) 6 12.00
Cover Up(IRE) 4 11.00
Researched (IRE) 8 11.00
Warringah (GB) 5 8.50
Modun 4 7.00
Blissful Moment 9 10.00
cheers for reply pinza,yep think he could be aimed at that sort of race,with the long straight at york wind him up early enough and happy days.(well looks good in theory.lol)
he'll be chuffed i let it go again today 
nice to see stoute isn't quite finished yet though
nice to see stoute isn't quite finished yet though
HappyHibby 03 Apr 13 10:17
came there swinging on it's debut....found very little off the bridle despite getting a few cracks...
head carriage looked iffy to me and he hung left...
can't remember if the mother has produced anything else but something tells me she has...
i wasn't particularly a fan of her anyway tbh...
wide draw today...
looks more of a handicap project to me....
certainly wouldn't have it as a 6-4 chance....
a race to watch imv...
came there swinging on it's debut....found very little off the bridle despite getting a few cracks...
head carriage looked iffy to me and he hung left...
can't remember if the mother has produced anything else but something tells me she has...
i wasn't particularly a fan of her anyway tbh...
wide draw today...
looks more of a handicap project to me....
certainly wouldn't have it as a 6-4 chance....
a race to watch imv...
HappyHibby 03 Apr 13 11:24
the race is too hard for me to even bother pricing up gman...
no idea how good the BOTTY horse is for starters...
stridingedge 03 Apr 13 12:42
happyhibby
surely the collateral form of the mdn the stoute horse ran in suggests it should be favoutite here. that race is well above average and botti's will have to be very straight on debut in all probability to be superior today (which of course is possible).
however you look at it for the early weeks of the season, the stoute horse is bringing a very decent level of form to the table. you'd expect the horse would have a good chance of progressing this year being by sir percy.
if you look at subsequent ratings of the other top 7 finishers in that race
winner 105
2nd 88
3rd 85
4th stoutes horse
5th 83
6th 72
7th 75
i actually thought the stoute horse would be nearer evens with the obvious unknown being botti's debutant!
you said you'd back it at 5/1, i think we all would with ratings like that in its newmarket race as a 2yo
the race is too hard for me to even bother pricing up gman...
no idea how good the BOTTY horse is for starters...
stridingedge 03 Apr 13 12:42
happyhibby
surely the collateral form of the mdn the stoute horse ran in suggests it should be favoutite here. that race is well above average and botti's will have to be very straight on debut in all probability to be superior today (which of course is possible).
however you look at it for the early weeks of the season, the stoute horse is bringing a very decent level of form to the table. you'd expect the horse would have a good chance of progressing this year being by sir percy.
if you look at subsequent ratings of the other top 7 finishers in that race
winner 105
2nd 88
3rd 85
4th stoutes horse
5th 83
6th 72
7th 75
i actually thought the stoute horse would be nearer evens with the obvious unknown being botti's debutant!
you said you'd back it at 5/1, i think we all would with ratings like that in its newmarket race as a 2yo
HappyHibby 03 Apr 13 15:15
chin up stridingedge...
i'm sure your SIRE STATS reasoning will come good eventually...
pr1ck
chin up stridingedge...
i'm sure your SIRE STATS reasoning will come good eventually...
pr1ck
HappyHibby 03 Apr 13 14:34
so it shows enough speed over 6f but it ain't got enough speed for 7f...
great reasoning stridingedge....
go to the top of the dunces class for that one tbh.
so it shows enough speed over 6f but it ain't got enough speed for 7f...
great reasoning stridingedge....
go to the top of the dunces class for that one tbh.
stridingedge 01 May 13 18:12
HappyHibby 03 Apr 13 14:34
so it shows enough speed over 6f but it ain't got enough speed for 7f...
great reasoning stridingedge....
go to the top of the dunces class for that one tbh.
HappyHibby 03 Apr 13 14:34
so it shows enough speed over 6f but it ain't got enough speed for 7f...
great reasoning stridingedge....
go to the top of the dunces class for that one tbh.
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