Will Excelebration be raised to 135?
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And don't forget SP although Snow Fairy and Midday are lovely mares but all bar one of their European wins were against their own sex. Quite a bit of difference. Ouija Board was one of my favourites and she only managed to win one European race against the boys and what a bad race that was so Snow Fairy's latest win could be looked upon as being even more detrimental to the boys in the race.
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Yep BJT, definitely as Aussie and funny you should used the words really and disappointing in the same sentence as Black Caviar as those were my exact sentiments after seeing her run.
I'm suggesting CDA was the best horse in the Champion Stakes based on the fact that he won it and not what his price was and if just by backing the shortest priced horse in the race always ensured we were on the best one then the game would be easy. Prices are just bookies and punters opinions and opinions are often wrong, just as a horse's official rating is the opinion of the handicapper and So You Think was rated lower than Nathaniel so it would be more accurate to say that Nathaniel was the best horse in the race. Yeah? It's irrelevant whether CDA had a break during the 2012 season or not, it was still his 6th run of the year/season and if the suggestion when trying to knock Frankel was that CDA was having only his 2nd run since May and he was lacking fitness or whatever other fantasy excuse you want to come up with, the fact is he ran two weeks before facing Frankel and won by 9L and so had no fitness worries there. Keeping up? Yeah? Still with me? Did I see the race? Yes of course I did and evidently saw it a look more accurately than you did because the whole races WASN'T run 3-4 wide as only parts of it were and Bullet Train went to the rail with about half a mile to go and CDA was a horse's width off him and the rail, but even using your inaccurate interpretation of things, if they ALL went 3-4 wide then they ALL were in the same boat and ALL benefited from the better ground......Sorry, is this supposed to be an example of your so called superior intelligence you have over me? How do I know soft ground suits CDA better? That would be to the numerous wins the horse has on heavy and very soft ground and although Frankel has won a few times with a bit of give in the ground, those were at a mile and he had only just shown that he got 10f once before the Champion Stakes but was then having to show he got the 10f on the soft going. I never said Frankel didn't like the going either, I said the going suited CDA BETTER and think that's a fair comment to make based on what both horses had done on a combination of ground and trip? Keeping up? So let's go by you figures than and you claim: At the 2f pole was within about half a length from the video I am looking at. Roll forward. 1f pole he is about .75-1 length ahead and being pushed out. Roll forward. About 100 metres to go he is 1.5-1.75 lengths in front. So Frankel is: 2f = within half (.5) a length of CDA 1f = about .75-1 length ahead 100 metres to go he is 1.5-1.75 lengths in front and as the winning distance was 1.75 lengths ahead that certainly looks like pulling away to me considering he came from behind to lead and then increase that lead at ever distance mark stated.......are you sure you've got the order right about which of us is supposed to be lacking in intelligence? And if you have you own eyes then I suggest you get them down to Specsavers as pulling away and increasing the lead the further a horse goes doesn't make it a spent force or are you disputing the official winning distance too? As for what had Black Caviar got to do with the Qipco Champion Stakes of 2012, well nothing directly but we all know indirectly Aussies have to try their best and attempt to rewrite history and the facts because their so called superstar looked decidedly ordinary at Royal Ascot, whereas Frankel looked the genuine superstar and best horse in the world that he is and Aussies are still clearly hurting over that? Yeah? Are YOU Keeping up now?  |
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The headline was a novel (as in publishing from Brig)...........nowhere any reasoning or personal observation to explain........or is just me being pedantic?
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A novel? Was it about a ship named Excelebration GT?
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Excellebration has not beaten any top class group 1 horses. Cityscape is a group 2 horse. Moonlight cloud's best trip is 7 furlongs and Elusive Katie is a nice group 1 filly, nothing great.
This is the reality. |
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FFS when will you lot stop at using bits of string etc?
Fair enough Brig citing the above but Workforce and STS........not to forget Goldikova did more than the whole lot put together on the track between them. The Classics are not a definitive guide to greatness. |
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Goldikova was a lovely filly but 3 of her Gr1's were in the US, 4 were against her own sex and 5 were in open company. She ran twice as many times as Frankel and 2.5 times as many as Canford Cliffs who also won 5 Gr1's in open company. Beating her in one.
Add to that she wasn't the classic winner of her age and therefore not the best, imo. |
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There you go Brig.........won outside her backyard.Freddie said she was the best filly/mare he had the privelege to be involved with.
I spoke with him and a few other sages after STS came in from the Arc,bear in mind he also rode a nice filly you like. Freddie rode one racing.........trained and rode(on the gallops) Goldi.Is he so wrong? |
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Rose tinted specs GT. I love these mares but they have a pretty good programme now. Snow Fairy, Midday, Ouija Board, Peeping Fawn, Goldikova etc they can win quite a few Group 1s among themselves. Now they have the Breeders Cup, Sha Tin, Kranji ffs. Loads of them.
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A telling fact I suppose is that there are only 5 fillies in the 107 top Timeform rated hores at 135 and up. Three are from France, Black Caviar and Pebbles. That leaves 102 colts/geldings. And 2 of the French horses were from the early 70's.
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brain dead jockeys
Excellebration has not beaten any top class group 1 horses. Cityscape is a group 2 horse. Moonlight cloud's best trip is 7 furlongs and Elusive Katie is a nice group 1 filly, nothing great. This is the reality Cityscape won the big Gr1 race at around a mile at the Dubai World Cup meeting, was also there or thereabouts at the mile mark in the Eclipse, was a narrowly 2nd in the Gr1 HK Mile, 3rd to Wise Dan (one of the favs for the Breeders' Cup Mile) in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile when forced out wide on firm ground he clearly hated, a sh hd 2nd in another Gr1 in Italy to a multiple Gr1 winner and 2000gns 2nd and was 3rd behind Canford Cliffs and Goldikova in their Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, all of which is very strong Gr1 form and but for Excelebration would have won a few more Gr1s at a mile including 2 defeats of Elusive Kate and was 3¼L in front of her last time and without Cityscape then Excelebration would have been a 6¼L winner from EK in the QEII and that is a Frankel type winning distance over Excelebration. Moonlight Cloud's best trip might be 7f but she has only recently been trying the mile again in her last 2 for the first time since the 1000gns and was an unlucky in running 1¾L behind Excelebration in a Gr1 (although I don't think she would have won anyway) and then won a Gr1 in a narrow win from Farhh (good yardstick) with the 3rd another 6L back. Although Farhh might prefer 10f he's a top class horse as his runs in the Pow (unlucky in running), Eclipse and Juddmonte show and 6L being Frankel in the Sussex Stakes at mile puts him even very closely matched to Excelebration (excluding one defeat of 11L in the QA) probably puts Excelebration a length or so better than Farhh at a mile and we already know he's closely matched with Moonlight Cloud at the trip and she has showed her own class and versatility with her narrow defeat at 6f in the Jubilee Stakes behind Black Caviar. |
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Sorry taken so long to reply Brig,this donkey piece of carp cost enough but it took a tart in the bar to get it working.
She is now kipping in the King size bed,wasnt too bad tbf. No Goldikova though............we have to agree to disagree again...........Goldi did what she had to and no mare/filly has or can best her.Ditto STS and Workforce.............Kauto Star. All three unique and it will be a long time before we see their equals..............as for Frankel.........we probably wont see his like again in our lifetime. |
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I do understand where you are coming from Ima and BJT but these are just the finer points. The facts of the matter are that Frankel and Excelebration have been lucky to be around against a poor opposition. Are CDA and Cityscape improving because they had to wait so late in their careers to win a Group 1? I think that is unlikely personally. I think their main opposition has retired and the younger generation are not up to standard.
It is all very well saying a horse wins this and that but if they are the best around that is what is expected. The question 'what' are they better than? Look at the classics. The 2000 Gns this year and the year before (excluding Frankel)is horrible form, the Epsom and Irish Derby this year and last year really don't look up to any standard and the St Leger winners, well they look very poor. I know some people say the classics are not the be all and end all of horse racing but it is where the best horses are invariably targetted at. All of the clues are there. This is a very poor era, excluding Frankel. |
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Tiznow - Giants Causway how would these rate against Excelebration?
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LOL....you said yourself Frankel was behind at the 2f pole, slightly ahead at the 1f pole and had his biggest margin ahead at that winning line so that in my world counts as pulling away. Pulling away doesn't have to go on doing so for ever, you can pull away and then maintain that distance to the line but it doesn't mean you didn't pull away to begin with and what it certainly doesn't mean is the you are a spent force. So OK, good arguing.
I would also argue that Frankel's jockey would never usually sit so still on the horse until the 1f pole in a Gr1 race and would have kicked between 2-3f out and as a result of that would have been quickening for longer and have had more distance to pull away, just as he did in the QA at RA but because of the extra distance on the soft ground last time, he held onto the horse longer which meant by the time he asked him to quicken, the line was practically on top of him anyway but he would have won by a bigger margin if kicking earlier. But no the best horse doesn't always win, which was my very point and it's you not me claiming SYT was the best horse it's you and mainly due to those 2 well know scientific means of deciding so, those being blinkered Aussie bias and a horse's price in the betting. I've already said Nathaniel was rated higher than SYT so there's an argument there pre-race that he was the best and there's no argument post-race that CDA was the best and much as I would imagine it is the case over there, UK and Irish punters probably over bet their own horses due to having favourite connections as well as many maybe not being as up on overseas form which often allows overseas horses first time racing here to go off at bigger prices than they should. |
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Cityscape
Nmk 8GF C13yG1 241K 9-0 14/15 (23L Sea The Stars 9-0) yes the arc winner(12f) Asc 8Sft C1G1 567K 9-3 2/8 (3L Excelebration 9-3) |
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Ima I'm amazed you keep on with this. Frankel is unique among top quality racehorses in that he races on the bridle throughout his races. You only have to look at the headgear he is wearing then look at the other great horses. None of them had to wear such demanding headgear. The others, as Henry has tried with Frankel, after the start they drop the bridle until they are picked up for a run. Frankel is always running into his bridle that is why Quealey sits still on him with his hands full. The downside is, like the St James Palace and could have been in the Champion, that he has one run. That is exactly why I was disappointed that St Nicholas Abbey never ever led in the Juddmonte and why CDA's owner now thinks he could have done better. I don't think he was ever properly tested in his races.
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St Nicholas Abbey never ever led in the Juddmonte
Taken from the formbook Tracked leading trio, led briefly well over 2f out, soon headed, kept on same pace over 1f out. |
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I stand to be corrected Figgis. I can rely on you but having watched the race I think they are wrong. In my defence I am not sure the form stating Moonlight Cloud as being unlucky against Excelebration is correct either. Perhaps I am wrong on both accounts.
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Comments say "unlucky", not unlucky not to win, so yes, you are wrong on both counts.
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Thank you.
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You're always wecome, brig
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Frankel, it is proven, over and over again, that he has a short 1-200 metre burst, and then needs to be hard ridden to keep some sort of speed up.
Have you ever had a look at his sectionals? Seems like you haven't heeded your won advice. |
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*own
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I fail to see how sectionals can be compared when there is no direct comparison. Surely there are too many variables to make them worth anything and there are too few to be dogmatic about. Often Frankel is compared with Little Bridge who was winning his one and only Group 1 on that day.
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I would love to know how they get there sectionals? Camera angles on videos and streams enough of a blur?
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Then throw in the changing ground,moved rails,and the jamie spencer factor?
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brigust1 Joined: 07 Dec 01
I fail to see how sectionals can be compared Compared with what? Other sectionals in the same race? As that is what is being talked about. |
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No, obviously where the winner is miles better than the opposition then the sectionals will be better but in general how can sectionals be of any use with such limitd availability?
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I don't use sectionals at all for my own analysis and betting. The point is, the statement that Frankel "has a short 1-200 metre burst", is quite clearly piffle.
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You are probably right there Figgis. My own opinion is that Frankel is a headstrong, free running horse (look at his headgear) that is why Henry never attempted the 12f. He runs into his bridle all of the time whereas most racehorses actually drop the bridle and that allows them to get home. It also means the jockey will have to pick them up to get them back into the bridle, something TQ doesn't have to do because he is always on the bridle. So where a jockey becomes animated to get their horse into the bridle his wins will not look so easy whereas they probably are.
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Yes , he does run into the bridle, so it is perfectly understandable why Cecil was reluctant to step him up in trip early. The thing is, though, while he is running into the bridle he is comfortably running at a speed that is not quite so comfortable for most of his opponents, we know he's doing it comfortably because when Queally really lets him go he (usually) quickens up that speed considerably and does it for longer than most horses can, most horses that had been running into the bridle for so long would wilt. As for "most racehorses actually drop the bridle and that allows them to get home", I would say on the vast majority of his runs he's got home easily and his sectionals haven't dipped any more than you'd expect. We could find certain races in any great racehorse's career where the winning margin was being closed at the finish.
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Couldn't disagree with most of that Figgis. I do think though, I know some disagree, he was fortunate to be born in a weak era. In fairness his style of racing is for impressive viewing I am firmly of the opinion though that what you see is what you get. Had Lester ridden him he would have been a sight to behold.
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Brig, I agree that it's not been a great era, particularly this season's 3yos. Actually, I don't rate Excelebration or Cirrus as highly as some do either (that said, I would also disagree with some high figures from the past). My highest figure for Excelebration would equate to about 130. At first I thought he'd probably improved on that when watching him win last time at Ascot, but on analysing the times I couldn't rate it higher than 129. I believe that the others weren't quite at their best and, as so often happens on soft ground (when the winner handles it well), the win appeared better than it was. However, I can see how some would rate it higher, even though I disagree. I can't weigh up the American form accurately, so I don't know about Wise Dan, but I think Moonlight Cloud can give Excelebration a race. I think the winner of those 2 will be more about whoever retains their form best after a long season, rather than actual ability.
Anyway, back to the point. I accept that it's not been a great era and it would've been great to see Frankel face a couple of 137ish horses to give him a bit more of a test, nevertheless, he has been demolishing some good (130ish), if not great, horses so easily that facing a horse rated 7lbs higher would not have made one jot of difference to the results, except maybe in the St James's Palace and Champion Stakes, but he wasn't seen at his best in those races, which happens at some stage in any great racehorse's career. |
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I couldn't agree more Figgis. That's about 3 or 4lbs higher for Excelebration than I would give him but who cares what we think. It is difficult to know now the races are almost all level weight. I remember BG had to give 22lbs and 19lbs to the 3 year olds and 14lbs to his own age group. He gave 11lbs to the Derby first and second. So it would have been interesting had similar circumstances prevailed. I'm not saying he wouldn't have stood up to it but we will never know. And the 3 year olds are so poor. None of the horses that finished runner up to Camelot has won any sort of race at all, how bad is that. And Excelebration is only very marginally better. It is alright saying Excel would be an almost unbeaten champion miler without Frankel but when, if that was the case, none of the runner ups would have won even a Group race of any sort anywhere how good would those races be?
Dire. |
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*subsequently won any Group races
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Brig, did you agree with the Reference Point rating?
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I'm afraid you have me there Figgis. Obviously I know the horse but whether he deserves his rating I couldn't say. It depends, obviously, upon what he beat and what they have done subsequently.
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