Will Excelebration be raised to 135?
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Thanks DI. Some on here think there is nothing commercial about their ratings. Funny thing is AOB was interviewed the other day and, although he thought Excel was a very good horse, in no way did he suggest he is the best he has trained. Never mind, AOB is always backward in coming forward about his horses.
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i think you've misunderstood...i was being sarcastic...you are talking nonsense as per
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Coming from you DI that is a compliment.
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you're welcome
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Three months on and still the same old shyte. Anything to prove black is white.
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Read the thread title Harry. If you are not interested you could always not read it or post on it. Or are we only supposed to write about things you are interested in?
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Harry is correct, brigust is surely the most blinkered poster in the history of the horse racing forum. Pathetic to keep twisitng the facts as much as possible to run down Frankel and boost Brigadier Gerard, Dancing Brave etc. Lets face it if Frankel had won his races by 20 lengths he'd have just said the others all ran below par. It's sad to see someone so obsessed.
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You may not be interested in the machinations of this sport Aspargus but that is no reason to slate anyone who is. You may be the type of character to just give up without a fight, just lay down a die, the kind of friend everyone needs,but that is no reason why I should. You may think it is sad but I find it exilerating, but you wouldn't understand that I suppose. This forum is falling apart over the last year or so because people don't post any more and then when someone does you criticise them. I posted the thread before he was raised to 135 and today he has been. And your 20 lengths comment is b ollo x because before the Juddmonte I posted the distance he was required to win by.
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what is it you are fighting oh-so-noblely for again?
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Are you telling me you are commenting on something you know nothing about DI? Did you not read the thread title BEFORE you posted on it?
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You may be the type of character to just give up without a fight, just lay down a die, the kind of friend everyone needs,but that is no reason why I should.
this is about Excelebration being rated 135? f*ck me, i thought the Nazis were coming again the way you were talking |
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It is certainly a better thread than 'Spencer is a pr*ck' in my opinion of course. Quality.
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one needs to wind down at the end of the afternoon!
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Having an opinion is what makes the world go around. Some have an oponion on lots of things and some on just a few. What irks me is when others think having an opinion on something they disagree with is wrong. That's all.
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Brig, if you go back thru all these Frankel-B Gerard threads, i have not once said i think Frankel is the best ever...i've enjoyed watching him but am in no position to say he's better than Secretariat or BG....i have never said your opinion is wrong...but i will say when i believe your reasoning or arguments to be wrong....tho it's prob time to move on in truth!!
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In actual fact DI my gripe concerns Sea Bird 11 but I know more about BG than I do about SB. I know the momentum of the time is coming to an end but that is not just yet. I know it is not exactly the same but there is a phrase that goes something like 'evil succeeds when good men do nothing'. I still find it fascinating otherwise I wouldn't be on here. I'm not complaining that no-one else is posting that is entirely upto them but why try to silence people when there is plenty of room for everyone. Even those who think 'Spencer is a pr*ck'.
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will he win the bc mile?
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I've always thought he was a 7 furlong horse so the track should definitely suit but I aso think Moonlight Cloud is a 7 furlong horse as well.
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Being a bit cynical, I know that is not usually my style, but I just wondered why Coolmore took a full page ad in the RP today only a few days before the BC. If they thought he was a worthy short priced favourite why not wait until after the race? Surely that would enhance his fees?
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7f horses don't win Gr1 mile races going away and barely coming off the bridle in soft ground against other Gr1 winning milers.
There's never been anything in the evidence of his races to suggest Excelebration was a 7f horse and if you take out Frankel then he's hosed up in most of them and certainly has when not facing Frankel......unless people were seriously thinking that being beaten at a mile by Frankel makes Excelebration a 7f horse. For Excelebration to be a 7f horse would mean so would every miler that has finished behind him have to be, so the only reasoning I can come up with as to why anyone would ever say that would be to knock Frankel by association, as if to say Frankel was nothing special as he was only beating a horse that didn't get the mile.....which we now know is and always was totally wrong. |
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You should be aiming your tirade at AOB Ima, not me. They were his words. And I never said he WAS a 7 furlong horse I said I THOUGHT he was. It must be a good feeling being right all of the time.
I notice you never said anything about Moonlight Cloud. Perhaps you think she is a 7 furlong horse who can win over a mile? If you don't think 7 furlong horses can have the class to win over a mile can I tell you that is wrong? And your point about winning Gr1's depends completely and solely on the quality of the opposition. You should know that. |
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Has it ever occurred to you Brig that one horse could be so good and so dominant that those behind deserve a higher rating than multiple winners?
Timeform have such a horse that beat multiple winners and yet imo the opposition was so poor for it and the others it was absurdly overated. Can you name this horse? Btw imo.........regardless of how you view rating Excelebration has to be rated according to Frankel and I would say 132 is about right but flattering in relation? |
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grendel 23 Oct 12 12:07
I would love to speed rate the 1971 & 1972 seasons but I can't find the full season form books with race times Grendel, I have Timeform Racehorses of 1971 if you need any information |
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That would be a 'no' GT. I judge horses by what they beat not by what beats them. Providing there is enough evidence to go on. When I look at form I prefer to rely on the nearest protagonist unless there is a seriously unlucky loser. Take the Jacques le Marios. Excel beat Cityscape and Elusive Kate with Moonlight Cloud in 4th. Even though MoonlightCloud was considered unlucky was she unlucky not to win or not to be 2nd? I don't know. If she was unmlucky not to win as seems likely to some, not me, then I would still assess the race through Cityscape because he would have been 2nd to Excel or 3rd to MC and Excel. So Cityscapes form after this run will tell me how good the form works out.
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If I was assessing Moonlight Cloud in the same race I would use Caspar Netscher who finished just behind her. The fact that she may have been unlucky is unquantifiable. For her previous run I would use Whizz Kid and her latest I would use Farhh. What they do after this run is what I am interested in. Caspar Netscher has run once and been beaten, Whizz Kid has run 3 times and won a Group 1 and Farhh has not run since.
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Therein lies the difficulty Brig,interpretation.Todays handicappers have made themselves look complete and utter fools.
They admit the flaws in the past and yet more or less confess to rating a horse on what they would like it to do and what they themselves believe eg Frankel at York and no names. Im sure you and others can guess he rates the GN,that apart the answer earlier was Arkle. |
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The way I see it Frankel is judged not only by his successes but Excelebrations successes as well. Quite rightly. However if it is best to judge a horse by what he has beaten then applying the same method to Excelebration is only reasonable. That is why I think Excelbration does not deserve his rating.
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I think Excelebration is an outstanding miler, as good as the best(Frankel apart) we have seen since the turn of the century including Canford Cliffs, Goldikova and Rock of Gibraltar. He will probably win his fourth G1 at the weekend, without Frankel around he would most likely have been gunning for his 8th G1. This is a measure of the greatness of Frankel.
I don't think it matters what TF or the Official Handicapper say, I can see that he's a very very good miler and that Frankel put him away with ease shows what an absolute monster Frankel is. Anothet point is I think people in some quarters may have been a little bit disappointed Frankel didn't blow away Cirrus des Aigles but let's put into perspective what a towering performance it was. Remember Cirrus won this event last year, the next 4 home were So You Think 10 G1's, Snow Fairy 7 G1's, Midday 6 G1's, Nathaniel 2 G1's. So Frankel was taking on a horse that won this race last year when it was one of the strongest G1's run in Europe in 2011 also Cirrus is renowned for his ability to handle very soft ground. Frankel was taking on the 2nd best horse in the world under his optimum conditions, lost about 4L at the start ran widest all the way around still got to the lead on the bridle a furlong out and was pulling clear close home, an absolutely awesome performance and I'm sure given similar conditions Cirrus des Aigles will show what a monumental task faced Frankel that day. |
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No tirade brigust1 and it never ceases to amaze me how some people think they can tell somebody's tone from words on a screen. If I has been swearing left right and centre then fair enough but....oh and I did say why ANYONE would ever say that and PEOPLE in regards to the 7f claim so it's aimed at everyone. My main point though was if a 7f horse struggles to get home over a mile then it won't usually win on the bridle going away and on soft ground too as the ground will put even more emphasis on getting home.
A while back if anyone disagreed with AOB you would get the inevitable "how many winners have you trained" line but since this is the same AOB who said Camelot was the best he has ever trained you tend not to hear it so much now. Personally I don't for one minute think that he thought Exceleberation was a 7f horse and was more of a case of banging his head up against a brick wall with Frankel and looking like having to go elsewhere to avoid him, in much the same was as they messed about Rip van Winkle in trip after being regularly beaten by Sea The Stars and since they weren't likely to step up in trip with Excelebration then down was the only other option. Either way though I still prefer to let my own eyes judge a horse's runs rather than anything the trainer comes out with and there was nothing there to say Excelebration didn't get a mile and in the end they were happy to keep a supposedly 7f horse at a mile once Cecil indirectly made the decision for them by stepping up Frankel to 10f, so if AOB thought Excelebration really was a 7f horse then why has he run him at a mile the last 2 times and both on ground that put an emphasis on getting the mile? I didn't comment on Moonlight Cloud as I didn't know it was compulsory to, I'm also not necessarily in disagreement with what you previously said and it is actually an Excelebration thread after all. If you want me to do so then I would point out that she's run 14 times but only 3 have been at a mile with 2 of those being her last 2 and has only 1 win from those 3 in a 4 horse race with really only Farhh as her main rival and Farhh's probably better at 10f and MC only won by a head. She's also run 9 times at 7f and won 7 of those and was narrowly beaten over a stiff 6f at Royal Ascot and all of that points to her being more likely a 7f horse than Excelebration considering he has only run at the trip 3 times from 14 and has 4 wins at a mile and has been 2nd or 3rd at a mile 4 more times behind Frankel. Of course genuine top class Gr1 horses can win races not at their best trip against other horses running at their best trip that aren't quite top class and I would expect any of Frankel, Excelebration and Cityscape to beat Black Caviar at 6f, 7f and a mile but top class horses running at their "wrong" trip don't often beat other top class ones running at their right trip, which again is supported by the fact that Farhh can win a handicap at a mile but not a Gr1. Cityscape is a very good Gr1 yardstick at a mile and he would win many 10f races against lesser opposition but probably not a Gr1 and on a line through him puts Excelebration and Wise Dan very closely matched. |
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It doesn't matter how you try and rate a horse because when all the plot lines point to one horse,well then you are only trying in vain to make excuses like "oh it never ran against anything" or "this and that was better anyway because it won these races!
So how do you rate a horse, well you could time the horse but this would depend if the race was run on perfect ground as you wont break a course record of just good ground, it has to be perfect like when Sea the stars won the Juddemonte the average times were a couple of seconds quicker than average and 3 course records were broken that day.When Frankel raced in the Juddemonte he ran on ground 2 seconds slower almost and took the widest possible route and yet still won by over 7 lengths, something sea the stars could never do and yet Frankel did this in nearly all his races like clockwork including the second biggest winning margin of a 2000 Guineas. The other way you can rate horses is by measuring the amount of lengths that the horse beats the second at certain levels of racing, or how much it is beaten by as tis method removes the deviation caused by relying on timepieces only. Well If you use this method you will find that Frankel has beaten the best Group one race fields around by a sum of a furlong nearly in 14 races. To my Knowledge this has never been done before and I doubt it will happen again in our lifetime! |
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I'm guessing BJT you are an Aussie and still hurting over Black Caviar as only an Aussie with an agenda can get so much wrong in such a short post.
If you are then the claim that last year CDA stalked the best horse in the ace was a bit of a give away......last year CDA was the best horse in the race and was why he won it. CDA went into the Champion Stakes off the back of 3 wins from 4 and a 2nd over 9f which was probably a bit short and 2 of those wins were by 8L and 9L and the other was by ¼L from St Nicholas Abbey at 12f, which probably suited SNA better....so puts paid to the argument that CDA wasn't the same horse as 12 months ago. The horse was having its 6th run in 2012 not its 2nd but if you are an Aussie then you are maybe making the mistake of going by when a season starts and finishes over there, which to a degree is fair enough as you might not know when they are elsewhere in the word but prepare to be mocked by other Aussie posters on here because of that and have them suggest you claim to be an expert on European racing.  Did you walk the course to determine the best going was out wider or does it maybe just suit your argument to say that in an attempt to detract from Frankel? And even if it was, these things are offset by running farther when going wider, although once they straightened up they were side by side at the business end anyway and neither horse was kicking up more turf than the other and that kind of ground suits CDA better anyway. You use the fact CDA was up with the pace and made a good bit of the running once again to detract from Frankel as if CDA lost the race from doing the donkey work and having to set the pace when in fact Bullet Train took over again and led CDA off the turn where CDA didn't take up the running again until they straightened up with about 2½f to go. Yet in the next sentence you state regarding Frankel that "any distance lost at the start really isn't very important in a 5 horse race over 10f as they didn't set a blistering speed, so really counts for very little".......so by the same logic making the running counts for little in a 5 horse race over 10f if they "didn't set a blistering speed." And LOL @ Frankel wasn't pulling away and was spent. He won by 1¾L and at the 2f pole was on the bridle and about 1L down on a hard ridden CDA and later they are roughly side by side at the 1f mark and with Frankel about 3L up at the same stage as Nathaniel in 3rd. Frankel's around 1L ahead of CDA at the ½f pole and the winning distance as stated earlier was 1¾L clear at the line having only been largely pushed out and with one tap of the whip, as opposed to CDA getting 4 slaps and Frankel was also 4¼L ahead of Nathaniel at the line as opposed to 3L clear at the 1f pole, so how any of that equates as Frankel "losing ground at the end" and "he was certainly spent" is beyond me. Unless of course as I said above, you have an agenda and just want to knock a true superstar but unfortunately you can't really do that just be making up your own fairy tales when the facts are there for all to see and can't be changed. |
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This generation of 3yrlds have been very poor on the whole? i just thought maybe this makes the elders,look just a bit better than what maybe they are? I respect that the collateral form looks more than brilliant on the whole for the Frankel line of form,but do just question,why the Excelebration team,did not avoid Frankel once beaten?There were plenty of group1 races about?(maybe trip?) The other thing that bothers me a little is the success of the older fillies on the whole? So many good fillies in one generation maybe suggest the colts not up to it(the lesser ones?)But the main thing that bothers me is the fact there are more group races than ever before in past years. and so the future generations can and do avoid each other?(The champions of the past were more restricted?).So how much more can you stretch a Handicap( 0-100 now 0-140) will this be changed in the future to 0-150-160?
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SP I cannot agree with you about Excelebration. Not a bit. Without Frankel you say he would have won 8 Group 1's and tht may be true but I doubt it. As a single reason perhaps Farhh would have run over a mile sooner and may have given him a real problem. To avoid Frankel Farhh ran in the PoW and the Eclipse instead. Only a small reason why you could be wrong. But of course Farhh may also have been a multiple Group 1 winning miler as well. So many champions in one season. We are blessed.
Ima, back to my point about Excelebration had he won those races you suggest the horses he has beaten (assuming Frankel never ran of course), finished 2nd to him have run 99 times since and not even won a Listed race between them.Do you call that form? Crazy. Absolutely crazy. (Apply the same principle to Canford Cliffs, rated lower than Excel, and you get 11 Group wins of which 6 are Group 1.) And your point about CDA is well made but has he benefited from the horse who previously beat him being retired? When he beat SNA in Meydan JOB gave the second a shocker and his last win he beat a horse that on it's previous attempt in a Group 2 on soft going had finished 17 lengths behind Sea Moon. And of course So You Think has won most of his Gr1's in Australia and Snow Fairy in Hong Kong etc. You see, we can all do it. And I wouldn't go overboard about Frankel losing ground at the start because his pacemaker slowed the pace right down and there is no way it was a true test. That Frankel is a great horse in undeniable but the fact he has met weak opposition and been raced very sparingly is also undeniable. |
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I do think we have all got excited(it's nice) by the fact that almost for sure we had the best of an whole generation(worldwide) racing in the uk,but if you look at the American Wise Dan ,how good is he? He looks a bit inconsistent? So if Ecelebration wins as expected(he should outstay Wise Dan)is it correct to up his rating?
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This is the thing Metro, something has got to win the races. Just because Excelebration has won them so what. Cityscape would have won 3 from his last 4, in fact he probably wouldn't have gone to the states or run in the Eclipse. Suddenly as a 6 year old adter 16 runs he's a multiple Group 1 winner. Just like CDA, never won a Group 1 in 43 starts until last October.
They interviewed AOB the other and he talked about Excelebration. I no way id he suggest he was the best horse in his yard or the best he has trained as the rating and adverts imply. |
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^If Excelbration hadn't run in them that is
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Very good point brigust1.Cirrus looked on the downgrade a little before the Frankel fixture? and plenty on here keep saying the slow pace did not help frankel in that race ,but he is the proven speed horse,he should have been more impressive in my view.
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CDA was 12/1 last year. To suggest he was the best horse in the race is negligent at best.
My comment that he stalked the best horse, was not because of where I come from, it is because the horse I refer to was 7/4F in the race, and by popular opinion, was determined best horse in the race, in a multi million dollar pool. Yeah? winner often a good guide to best horse in the race. that was CDA. cheers. |