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Betting "Edge" Required for Long Term Profit
Betting "Edge" Required for Long Term Profit
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Replies: 136
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True dat m8
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striding .
Say , if you have done your research and you have found that backing ALL horses with BSP 2.5- 3.5, in running @ 12 to be profitable and you then decide to have a few fun bets on the football , surely this is bad discipline ? |
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Stooz, it does make sense, but your avatar says it all, you're a trader, so of course price is king to you, and judging by the language and style of your writing, you're a number cruncher in real life also, as am I ( C.A. ), I'm saying as a punter that the horse is king and has proven to be for me and my betting. My P & L is all the proof I need, believe me with 4 kids, no matter how good my salary is, I could not sustain (or be allowed by she who must be obeyed) to lose on a regular basis. I have lost heavily when I ventured into American Racing where I based my selection solely on price.
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How do you know what the "correct" probability of a horses chance are - statistically a dice given in the example below has fixed odds (binomial type distribution) and even though it is a good analogy in my opinion cannot be easily applied here. Horse racing is not so clear cut.
I am all for statistics and base my approach very much around numbers. The only way I think you can quantify probabilities (correctly or not) is by the odds at BSP. I cannot see any other realistic or mor accurate approach. Strike Rate and Odds (a horses chance) have to be measured toegther to give perspective. Ultimately this gives your edge and profitability. |
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fun bets shouldn't affect anything
if you have a system that works for you and yet fritter it away on something else you don't have an edge in that's plain daft. my point about discipline is that it's banded around on here as though it's the clincher and it isn't. the funniest thing is when i hear (on football in particular) 'i made £5000 from £100 in a week and then lost my discipline and gave it all back', obviously there was no discipline in the first place to accuulate such a sum in so short a space of time. |
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Are there not computer programmes that can quantify probabilities ?
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Certainly, I'm a trader. I agree with what you're saying about as a punter & I too am 1st & foremost a horse racing fan and as a fan it doesn't matter about betting, price, etc because it's about having your favourite horses & stables & enjoying the spectacle for what it is. If that's what the game is for you (which it is when I attend racecourses) then I'm happy to stick my fiver each way on my favourite horse regardless of price & cheer him home.
My view is that to really win at the game you need to have a fundamental understanding of the theory & then bring this to the table when analysing form and studying what you think will happen in the race & finding an angle for you to profit from it. As you say your P&L is all the proof you need, if you're a good judge of form then it's likely that you're finding the value anyway, you're just not overtly looking for it. |
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^ Yes, Brimardon.
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H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 H11 H12 H13 H14 H15 H16
0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0/0/0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wipeout, I am using my own method to quantify probabilities and odds are not a factor, it is giving me a very high strike rate. Like everything in life, if you put the work in, you will reap rewards. I'm sure you'll understand that what makes up the left hand side is my own business, but if I was ever to open a tipping line, based on results over the years, subscribers would not be disappointed, unlike the scammers who attempt to advertise their services on here regularly. |
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By studying the form wipeout i dismiss horses chances of winning daily based on ground, stamina, ability. Trust me hard work pays off price is secondary to form. Understanding the form book is what gives you accuracy and with experience, profit.
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1mil - ground , stamina , ability is only half the story .
It all depends whether the horse is ready to win HORSES DON'T WIN RACES - TRAINERS DO . |
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Only half the analysis I use copied over in the above table, but like I said, put the work in and results will follow, from my own experience my own greed and when I lapse into indiscipline brings about a sure downfall.
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Glasgow you're reading the form wrong m8
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The Formbook
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what if the formbook says yes but the price is double what you expect and the horse is usually punted when it runs well?
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IMO - if the horse has everything going for it i.e - ground , trip , trainerform , h'cap mark , track etc etc etc - The price will be no value whatsoever .
You need to analyse form differently from the masses . |
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LOL @ Aviboyd, so true, but that's half the fun, when looking to write your own and beating the fcukers.
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striding : find out why , glasgow: all trainers are trying to place their horses to win but they can't all win can they that's why you see so many noners with pss poor excuses
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glasgow it depends to some extent how long ago the horse has been kept away from optimum conditions.
in the low grade 5's and 6's you can often get a price on something with ticks in all the boxes as its been purposefully kept away. obviously getting on sooner rather than later when its punted is the key though. |
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i'd say in the worst class of hcps recent form becomes less and less relevant as the animals contesting them areinconsistent.
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Yeah , i agree .
The trainer angle is one that can reap rewards . After all , they are creatures of habit . |
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all trainers are trying to place their horses to win but they can't all win can they that's why you see so many noners with pss poor excuses
in low grade races, a lot of trainers are constantly trying to get competitive marks again by running them over the wrong conditions. people don't like to hear this but it's a fact that getting winners that have limited abilities needs manipulation of the system to some extent or another. i concentrate on this as a starting point now and try and determine the 'off days' above all else. |
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As the saying goes , when a trainer is in great form , they'll win with the yard cat !
TWISTON DAVIES - RUTH CARR - MARK JOHNSTONE IN JANUARY - alan king nov/dec ( used to be anyway )- all have their habits and favourite tracks . YEAR IN YEAR OUT . |
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Glasgow if you're into trainer stats the race trace and course specialist pages in the rp are worth a look. I do back some horses that come up on here but it wouldn't be a reason to back them for me
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not enough info in there mate -
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striding i know that's true m8 i found that out the hard way.As a rule i don't touch low grade stuff anymore just down to the fact that its too time consuming and the fact that you mentioned there's too many inconsistencies
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How much info do u want about trainers lol
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some crude "noisy" statistics in the only daily racing paper available to everyone with a couple of quid or who walks in a betting shop
have we found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow in this thread |
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did
anyone win before betfair was invented ? |
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did
anyone win after betfair was invented ? |
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I did,and so did many others.
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How much info do u want about trainers lol
The secret is concentrating on a few - get to know their habits i.e 2yo maidens , do they usually get one ready 1st time in a handicap ,which track do they excel at etc etc etc etc , and you will reap the rewards . |
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Glasgow all that info is available in the signpost/trainerspot pages m8
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right stooze you spout some shoite but i,n going to give you your head ,so explain this to a mug punter like myself,
you say if you back 12 to 1 shots you should expect to go on runs of 30 ,40 losers,but if they are true odds like you say you should be getting 3 or 4 winners every 40 runners, if you are getting 40 losers that means you need 7 or 8 winners out of the next 40 and so on, why are you just as likey to get no winners out of 40 then suddenly get 7 or 8,  |
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Only the basic stuff is in the RP - you need to scratch below the surface to gain an edge .
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every horse in every race is trying to win
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Probability 1st time poster. Stooze is talking sense.
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Like i said Glasgow it wouldn't be a reason to back a horse for me i was just trying to help a man out u know
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To 1st time poster:
Complicated Answer There is a simple formula you can use to establish the longest winning / losing streak of an event (Source: FlatStats.co.uk): Log(RUNS) / -Log(PROB) Where Log is the Natural Logarithm Function, RUNS is the maximum number of runs in a sequence and PROB is the probability of the event happening. Lets say you have a strike rate of 16% (if you're selecting at 12/1 this makes you a winning punter). If you make say 1000 selections over a year with a strike rate of 16%. Because we want to calculate the losing streak, we need to calculate the probability of tipping a loser i.e. 1 - 0.16 Therefore the formula is: Log(1000) / - Log(0.84) Using a calculator the result is = 39.61 That means you can potentially expect to go on a loosing run of around 39-40 when selecting at those odds over 1000 selections. Simple Answer The reality is that if you are backing at 12/1 then you're expecting to win around 1 time in 12 (assuming no edge). But this is only on average and in the long run you will have hot streaks & cold streaks. The above formula tells you what to expect from a cold streak, if you're a winning punter this is all perfectly normal. Hugh Taylor explains it really well in this video http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-QaHN-57Ajo |
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does hugh taylor have a logarithm to factor in horses well being,jockey, ground,which side of the bed, etc, etc,
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