Betting "Edge" Required for Long Term Profit

It's why bookmakers and casino's are opening up faster than any other business all over the world.

I wouldnt define myself by either of those brian, can you show me the evidence that you have made profit in the long run by backing overpriced horses? You need the discipline of a monk and there is absolutely nothing to say you wont be losing for ten years before a mad rush in the 11th puts you in profit, do you have the bank to lose for 10 years?


I disagree with you there whitty - There are strategies/ systems that will exist til the last man on earth takes his last breath .

And dont believe anything else .

hello
sum very intelligant people hear

"others will say if you keep getting 10/1 about a horse that goes off 5/1 then you will win in the long run".

it no true most gamble no win so no true.

"Simple maths they will argue, but its not guaranteed because true odds are impossible to compile in horse racing",
no true it be to
true odd can be made               my freind he make it true odd


"what you think should be 6/1 could be a 12/1 chance in someone else's book",
it no mater what other peoples think   it what price you make pick
best luck   page very good

I'm in favour of doing your own tissue - or at least using a mechanism to rate the horse's chances - not least because it forces you to evaluate the chances of every horse in the race.

I don't look at the market until I have done so and will back a horse if there is an obvious discrepancy (or occasionally lay one). I don't play unless I think the discrepancy is large enough (which is the hardest part because then you've done a lot of work for no bet).

I don't try and second guess which horses will be trying because I don't have information to that effect - I only play in races where it is highly likely most of them will be trying anyway.

I deliberatley ignore trainer comments with a few exceptions (Haggas would be one because his analysis of his horses chances are usually rational)because I think it is much better to operate in a vacuum.

Of course, occasionally I'll have a strong opinion which is contrary to what my analysis tells me - then a matter of judgment as to whether my opinion is strong enough to disregard the figures.

I do alright (better over fences where I find you can track a horse's  development more effectively from bumpers through to chases).

However you punt Wipeout, if you're trying to make it pay, just play for pennies, or better still, nothing for a couple of years until you get it right. And even then only bet to a small proportion of your bank - never more than 1%. I speak from bitter experience.

Doing your tissue is the best way, I do with greyhounds but would struggle to do a 30 runner handicap. Is better reaseheath if its a handicap as the runners are fully exposed rather than a madien or seller?

yep, tend to focus on Class 2 handicaps with 16 runners plus but sometimes do them for small field Class 1 races based on set criteria to validate (or not!) an opinion based on watching previous races.

Not saying my method is the right one or the only one but I'm comfortable with it - if, or rather when, I am on a losing run I'll re-evaluate the criteria I use for the tissue and maybe tweak them a bit.

Its got to be horse a vs b vs c etc rather plus if you know a horse hangs or something which is now worn or not.

Ill give it ago later this week and see how I get on. I think I will struggle compaired to greyhounds as theres so many angles to look at.

How many races would you do and how long would they take?

ada 28 Aug 12 21:54 Joined: 15 Jan 09 | Topic/replies: 632 | Blogger: ada's blog
Doing your tissue is the best way, I do with greyhounds but would struggle to do a 30 runner handicap. Is better reaseheath if its a handicap as the runners are fully exposed rather than a madien or seller?


Unless it's their first run in a Handicap.

Glasgow Brian
28 Aug 12 17:20   











Many a pro punter will make 10% profit on turnover each year .

How many betting shop regulars would be happy with a 2k profit after a 20k turnover ???


Ans -  NONE


And most punters who bet on here have the same mentality,there are very very few diciplined punters who make any money consistently,prices form knowledge discipline i doubt more understand more than two of those.

Excellent thread and I hope to add to it with three main points:

1: Value is NOT (in theory at least) in the eye of the beholder. There is a TRUE probability for every possible outcome at the start of the race, it's just that nobody can possibly be good enough as a compiler to know what that is. That's why value to me might not be value to you in reality. And also why you need an edge of a certain percentage to cover yourself when you're wrong (i.e. It's OK to be wrong, as long as you're not wrong by much).

2: Some horses are not running on their merits, so even when you do get their probability of success more or less right with the information you have available, there will be occasions when you get the rough end of the stick through no fault of your own. The key to dodging these bullets is to not be too greedy in my opinion. If you are a 10-1 type of punter and can back one of these at 14s or 16s, good on you. But if I'd done serious work on a race and was fairly confident of my assessment and this horse had drifted all day and could be backed at 20s or more, I'd be wary of backing it.

3: You need to work with percentages, NOT odds. It makes it clearer to see some of the pitfalls. For example, if you back a 4-1 (5.0) shot that you think should be 3-1 (4.0), you are in effect backing a horse that you think has a 25% chance of winning when the odds you nabbed suggest it has a 20% chance of winning. That shows you the margin for error in probability terms of making such a "value" approach work over a long time. However, if you back a 100-1 (101.0) shot that you think should be 50-1 (51.0), you are in effect backing a horse that you think has a 2% chance of winning when the odds you nabbed suggest it has a 1% chance of winning.

This last point shows why so many bigger-priced value seekers tend to fail. IF you were right about the odds it should be all the time, you would be laughing over a large number of bets, but I suggest nobody (without inside info) can be right within a 1% margin of error, especially about big-priced horses that probably have little form for you to work with. So, when you think you are getting value with your 101.0 shot, you might not be. Are you sure you are accurate to 1%?

I have been in the game a long, long time, and do make a modest profit from betting now. But I typically operate in the single figure area of the market as history shows I am more likely to get these prices right (or only slightly wrong) on my tissue, which means I spot the outliers and step in when that is the case. And I know that after all the experience and effort I put in, I couldn't hope to be accurate to less than 5% or so for most races.

Backing horses that are constantly available at bigger prices than you think it should be is no longer the road to riches, I had a thread on here which reached 100pts profit level stakes profit and over that period and now I would rather back a horse at 6's that I thought was a 10/1 shot than the other way around..

Good thread, its a bloody long apprenticeship and one of the 1st things you need to get into your head is that this mythical "Silver Bullet" does not exist, one day you can be a genius and the next day a mug, the truth lays somewhere in between.

A lot of full time and part time punters i speak to on the net agree on one thing, your season usually revolves around 10 or so days of the year, the rest of the time you plod along, not losing much or vice versa, you will have times where you might as well be reading the card in Serbo Croat and other times where everything is crystal clear, its stamina sapping and hard work and we all have our little niches we work on, learn to recognize your own faults and be honest with yourself.

This thread has started to mention the side of gambling which I actually believe is more than 50% of the skill-set required to win. This is the discipline & mental side of things.

Anyone can learn the theory of how to win (this thread pretty much lays it out) and they can then develop their own ways of identifying value & have their own strategies that are +EV.

The really hard part is not letting a loosing run affect your staking plan or decision making so that you are able to maintain your edge throughout thick & thin. This is of course if your edge existed in the 1st place which you will start to question on a loosing run. The thing to remember is what's expected from the odds that you are backing at. If for example you are selecting at average odds of 12/1 you would actually expect to go on a losing run of 30-40 at some point, it's literally odds on that this will happen to you.

As Tomdean's excellent post above says, you have to know your own capabilities & be honest with yourself. If picking in the single figure prices means that a super long loosing run is much less likely & you're going to stay sane then that's the strategy that you should employ.

It really does take a huge amount of effort to bring all 3 things together to win (theory, strategy & mental discipline). And as already mentioned, many serve a long apprenticeship, but so long as you really want to get better & improve then it is possible.

betfair markets are essentially an exchange of value, every time you place a bet someone or people are on the other end also believing they have obtained the value, what makes one right and the other wrong?!

The result

Imo your strike rate is more important if you have a decent strike rate u can get value on your selections if you take early prices

Strike rate without talk of average price you play is meaningless

I have to agree with the judge.

It is the difference between the two which I use to define my "edge" and determine value bets. Strike Rate over several hundred bets against theoretical probability (deduced from average BSP over these bets).

If you are as near as certain you have an edge COVER YOUR BALANCE UP and check it after the month .

June  seemed a roller coaster and i was as good as certain i had had a losing month - when i checked my balance i had won £150 from £50 liabilites .After looking at my betting history , it would have been easy to have lost faith and changed the strategy .

To have any chance of winning you need to take the emotion out of gambling .

There is no quick fortune to be made betting on horses if you are in it for the long haul - and if anybody says they can do it , they are lying .

I take early prices because they are reduced dramatically usually unless theres no value to start with (in which case i will take sp).I pick my horse without even looking at the prices

That old chestnut the horse don't know his price he just goes out there and does his thing

Glasgow brian don't gamble. Study form and invest

only1mill 29 Aug 12 14:05 Joined: 19 Aug 10 | Topic/replies: 102 | Blogger: only1mill's blog
I take early prices because they are reduced dramatically usually unless theres no value to start with (in which case i will take sp).I pick my horse without even looking at the prices

Same here, last thing I look at after I have picked my horse.

I agree that price should be a consideration if you know your limitations and likely s/r in order to maximise profit but i work on the premise that every horse i back is going to win. Not the case by btw,lol.

Not wishing to be critical only1mill but your thinking is flawed. Every horse has it's chance & true odds of wining, you can't possibly pick the winner every time, therefore all that matters is what you get paid when you do win. Hence all that matters is price, the selection you make is actually irrelevant.

IYO STOOZ

Yes I guess it is my opinion. It's also an opinion backed up by facts & stats.

1mil - price is everything and you must realise this before placing another bet .

Stooz, The whole point of a race is to find the winner so how is your selection irrelevant ?
What is the point of backing ten losers in a row and saying but i got good prices, your s/r is what matters and then price becomes less of an issue

stoozbet 29 Aug 12 14:52 Joined: 17 Feb 11 | Topic/replies: 49 | Blogger: stoozbet's blog
Not wishing to be critical only1mill but your thinking is flawed. Every horse has it's chance & true odds of wining, you can't possibly pick the winner every time, therefore all that matters is what you get paid when you do win. Hence all that matters is price, the selection you make is actually irrelevant.

Stoozbet, biting my lip here not to sound rude, but that's ridiculous, you say that all that matters is what you get paid, that the price is more important than what horse you select, you cannot win unless you know what is going to help you to win, and that's mainly the horse, the price is certainly not going to do this, looking at some of your posts, you are advising arbing to gain a 30% profit, so this is why price is important to you, good luck to you, but some of us would view 30% as failure, if after 40 yrs backing them the best I could achieve is 30% based on the time and effort I put in, I'd hang up my betting boots.

Price is everything.

Agreed, when you're arbing!!

Price is everything if you're arbing,betting,laying.Price is everything in every gambling situation.Trying to find the winner of the race is for mugs.

Its refreshing to see that the many good posts on here have not been drowned out by the those that have no idea what they are talking about. If you want to know which catagory you are in take a look at your bank balance.

1 mil - just say you fancy IDLER in the 3-40catt - what price will you take - any price ?

and if it wins you are only experiencing a psychological illusion due to the fact that you " knew " it was going to win .

Whereas in reality , if that race was run 10 times over it may not win again , possibly ?

Every horse has its price and for you to keep your head above water you must understand this .

Oh no mate you've got it twisted i'm not averse to laying a horse , i just know when to lay and when to back

No my Blog is simply a strategy that I like to employ. The fundamental principal of gambling is that it does not matter what you back but the price you back it at.

If you reduced a horse race to a role of a dice which has 6 sides, imagine that 5 of those 6 sides were red and the final side was black.

If you bet on red & it lands red you get paid at 5/6 (1.83) BUT if it lands on black you get paid at 7/1 (8.0). What do you bet on?

The most likely winner is red but you are getting paid exactly the same odds as the event happening ie you get paid 5/6 for something that will happen on average 5/6 times, ie your edge is zero.
If you bet on Black you're less likely to win on 1 role of the dice, but when you do win you get paid at 7/1 for something that will happen on average 1/6 times. You have an edge of 14% and should back black every time even though it's not the most likely winner.

You canot know the winner of a race, you can only come up with an assessment of each horse's chance. If the most likely winner has an evens shot  and you're backing at 1.8 then although you have chosen the most likely winner of the race you're not going to make money in the long run.

Does that make sense?

Not to millions of people fortunately.

thats the way stoozy .

No stooz it don't it's not about chance for me it's about knowledge

Just because u don't know the winner of a race it doesn't mean others don't

we all know about probability laws of true odds but in this game the only way to know whether you are assessing the true odds well enough is your long run p&l.

this game is not about discipline at all, that statement really bores me to death tbh, the game is about knowing when you are getting a price that is better than the actual chances of the selection.

the theory is very simple, in practice it's extremely difficult.

very few fall down on discipline as opposed to technique and experience.

True dat m8

striding .

Say , if you have done your research and you have found that backing ALL horses with BSP 2.5- 3.5, in running @ 12 to be profitable and you then decide to have a few fun bets on the football , surely this is bad discipline ?

Stooz, it does make sense, but your avatar says it all, you're a trader, so of course price is king to you, and judging by the language and style of your writing, you're a number cruncher in real life also, as am I ( C.A. ), I'm saying as a punter that the horse is king and has proven to be for me and my betting. My P & L is all the proof I need, believe me with 4 kids, no matter how good my salary is, I could not sustain (or be allowed by she who must be obeyed) to lose on a regular basis. I have lost heavily when I ventured into American Racing where I based my selection solely on price.

How do you know what the "correct" probability of a horses chance are - statistically a dice given in the example below has fixed odds (binomial type distribution) and even though it is a good analogy in my opinion cannot be easily applied here. Horse racing is not so clear cut.

I am all for statistics and base my approach very much around numbers. The only way I think you can quantify probabilities (correctly or not) is by the odds at BSP. I cannot see any other realistic or mor accurate approach.

Strike Rate and Odds (a horses chance) have to be measured toegther to give perspective. Ultimately this gives your edge and profitability.

fun bets shouldn't affect anything

if you have a system that works for you and yet fritter it away on something else you don't have an edge in that's plain daft.


my point about discipline is that it's banded around on here as though it's the clincher and it isn't. the funniest thing is when i hear (on football in particular) 'i made £5000 from £100 in a week and then lost my discipline and gave it all back', obviously there was no discipline in the first place to accuulate such a sum in so short a space of time.

Are there not computer programmes that can quantify probabilities ?

Certainly, I'm a trader. I agree with what you're saying about as a punter & I too am 1st & foremost a horse racing fan and as a fan it doesn't matter about betting, price, etc because it's about having your favourite horses & stables & enjoying the spectacle for what it is. If that's what the game is for you (which it is when I attend racecourses) then I'm happy to stick my fiver each way on my favourite horse regardless of price & cheer him home.

My view is that to really win at the game you need to have a fundamental understanding of the theory & then bring this to the table when analysing form and studying what you think will happen in the race & finding an angle for you to profit from it.

As you say your P&L is all the proof you need, if you're a good judge of form then it's likely that you're finding the value anyway, you're just not overtly looking for it.

^ Yes, Brimardon.

H1    H2    H3    H4    H5    H6    H7    H8    H9    H10    H11    H12    H13    H14    H15    H16
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0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0

Wipeout, I am using my own method to quantify probabilities and odds are not a factor, it is giving me a very high strike rate.

Like everything in life, if you put the work in, you will reap rewards.

I'm sure you'll understand that what makes up the left hand side is my own business, but if I was ever to open a tipping line, based on results over the years, subscribers would not be disappointed, unlike the scammers who attempt to advertise their services on here regularly.

By studying the form wipeout i dismiss horses chances of winning daily based on ground, stamina, ability. Trust me hard work pays off price is secondary to form. Understanding the form book is what gives you accuracy and with experience, profit.

1mil - ground , stamina , ability is only half the story .

It all depends whether the horse is ready to win

HORSES DON'T WIN RACES - TRAINERS DO .

Only half the analysis I use copied over in the above table, but like I said, put the work in and results will follow, from my own experience my own greed and when I lapse into indiscipline brings about a sure downfall.

Glasgow you're reading the form wrong m8

The Formbook

what if the formbook says yes but the price is double what you expect and the horse is usually punted when it runs well?

IMO - if the horse has everything going for it i.e - ground , trip , trainerform , h'cap mark , track etc etc etc - The price will be no value whatsoever .

You need to analyse form  differently from the masses .

LOL @ Aviboyd, so true, but that's half the fun, when looking to write your own and beating the fcukers.

striding : find out why , glasgow: all trainers are trying to place their horses to win but they can't all win can they that's why you see so many noners with pss poor excuses

glasgow it depends to some extent how long ago the horse has been kept away from optimum conditions.

in the low grade 5's and 6's you can often get a price on something with ticks in all the boxes as its been purposefully kept away. obviously getting on sooner rather than later when its punted is the key though.

i'd say in the worst class of hcps recent form becomes less and less relevant as the animals contesting them areinconsistent.

Yeah , i agree .

The trainer angle is one that can reap rewards . After all , they are creatures of habit .

all trainers are trying to place their horses to win but they can't all win can they that's why you see so many noners with pss poor excuses

in low grade races, a lot of trainers are constantly trying to get competitive marks again by running them over the wrong conditions.

people don't like to hear this but it's a fact that getting winners that have limited abilities needs manipulation of the system to some extent or another.

i concentrate on this as a starting point now and try and determine the 'off days' above all else.

As the saying goes , when a trainer is in great form , they'll win with the yard cat !

TWISTON DAVIES - RUTH CARR - MARK JOHNSTONE IN JANUARY - alan king nov/dec ( used to be anyway )- all have their habits and

favourite tracks .

YEAR IN YEAR OUT .

Glasgow if you're into trainer stats the race trace and course specialist pages in the rp are worth a look. I do back some horses that come up on here but it wouldn't be a reason to back them for me

not enough info in there mate -

striding i know that's true m8 i found that out the hard way.As a rule i don't touch low grade stuff anymore just down to the fact that its too time consuming and the fact that you mentioned there's too many inconsistencies

How much info do u want about trainers lol

some crude "noisy" statistics in the only daily racing paper available to everyone with a couple of quid or who walks in a betting shop

have we found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow in this thread

did
anyone
win
before
betfair
was
invented
?

did
anyone
win
after
betfair
was
invented
?

I did,and so did many others.

How much info do u want about trainers lol



The secret is concentrating on a few - get to know their habits i.e  2yo  maidens , do they usually get one ready 1st time in a handicap ,which track do they excel at etc etc etc etc  , and you will reap the rewards .

Glasgow all that info is available in the signpost/trainerspot pages m8

right stooze you spout some shoite but i,n going to give you your head ,so explain this to a mug punter like myself,
you say if you back 12 to 1 shots you should expect to go on runs of 30 ,40 losers,but if they are true odds like you say you should be getting 3 or 4 winners every 40 runners,
if you are getting 40 losers that means you need 7 or 8 winners out of the next 40 and so on,
why are you just as likey to get no winners out of 40 then suddenly get 7 or 8,

Only the basic stuff is in the RP - you need to scratch below the surface to gain an edge .

every horse in every race is trying to win

Probability 1st time poster. Stooze is talking sense.

Like i said Glasgow it wouldn't be a reason to back a horse for me i was just trying to help a man out u know

To 1st time poster:

Complicated Answer


There is a simple formula you can use to establish the longest winning / losing streak of an event (Source: FlatStats.co.uk):

Log(RUNS) / -Log(PROB)

Where Log is the Natural Logarithm Function, RUNS is the maximum number of runs in a sequence and PROB is the probability of the event happening.

Lets say you have a strike rate of 16% (if you're selecting at 12/1 this makes you a winning punter).

If you make say 1000 selections over a year with a strike rate of 16%. Because we want to calculate the losing streak, we need to calculate the probability of tipping a loser i.e. 1 - 0.16

Therefore the formula is:

Log(1000) / - Log(0.84)

Using a calculator the result is = 39.61

That means you can potentially expect to go on a loosing run of around 39-40 when selecting at those odds over 1000 selections. 

Simple Answer

The reality is that if you are backing at 12/1 then you're expecting to win around 1 time in 12 (assuming no edge). But this is only on average and in the long run you will have hot streaks & cold streaks. The above formula tells you what to expect from a cold streak, if you're a winning punter this is all perfectly normal.

Hugh Taylor explains it really well in this video http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-QaHN-57Ajo

does hugh taylor have a logarithm to factor in horses well being,jockey, ground,which side of the bed, etc, etc,

you ,hugh and no one else can apply mathamatical theory to a figure put on a horse by 1000,s of different people for 1000,s of different reasons

1st tome poster :- Try telling that to Willaim Bentner or Alan Woods when he was alive. The most intelligent thing a person with no idea can say is simply "I have no idea"

Price is everything

Goog prices about no hopers = long term profit

avoid winners to secure profit

only mugs back winners

and a watched pot never boils imo

Price is everything.

nice to see one of the forums shrewdies and darlings, mr melish has given up a nights profitable punting for another ruk gig, ,
as they once used to fight to get on the southwell rattler and fight to get their money on they now have a catfight to get in the studio and spout shoite for 3 hours

value, systems,tipsters,studying form, Pricewise Bla Bla Bla , all cobblers. Pick up the paper and a winner will hit you straight between the eyes ,might only be one in 3  months ,might be 2 in 2 days,


95% of punters fail at this game because of one thing GREED...... simples

value, systems,tipsters,studying form, Pricewise Bla Bla Bla , all cobblers. Pick up the paper and a winner will hit you straight between the eyes ,might only be one in 3  months ,might be 2 in 2 days,


95% of punters fail at this game because of one thing GREED...... simples

at a risk of repeating myself ..FFS

I have never believed that 1 can JUMP OUT AT YER , OFF THE PAGE .

I have heard it so many times - along with GUT FEEL .

They both defy logic .

unlike 40 losers will be just as likely be followed by 7 or winners and if its 80 losers 16 winners will follow,etc,etc
now thats logic

If you back 40 losers in a row take my advice and give up

Nothing wrong with 40 losers followed by two 25/1 winners.

as long as u dont follow tommo then u be ok

Everythings in the formbook,if not its there to see through replays i spend 60 hours a week doing the form minimum used to be more winners come naturally as putting that many hours in a week you've constantly got a turnover of bets recorded from decent times,non trier and watching replays for the future.Always one step ahead,usually two days in waiting for the books to come up at 4pm on most occasions i'm halving the prices of what i'm backing these aren't just my bets,they are what i pass on as well.
I very rarely back favs as their prices are rarely value apart from an odd bet,majority of bets i'm looking for the ricks constantly so will be betting lots of prices between 10-20/1,longest losing run 15 picks of which i was reminded
by someone i was sending them to.Moaning they'd lost 3k on the losing run, then telling me they were 30k up on them overall and off to mexxico for three weeks,there's some cheky b'stards around.

I am on the side of the value approach.

Most punters I think lose because they are fixated with short term returns and don't look at the bigger picture.

If, in the short term they lose, they tend to lose control and start betting stupidly. They switch from what may
have been a perfectly good strategy that is experiencing a bad run and bet on anything without rhyme or reason.

Good punters will have a defined strategy that has proved to work over an extended period and stick to it. They
will have a strategy for reducing bet sizes when bad runs are occurring. When good runs occur they will know to
pocket some profits and let the remaining profits compound in bet size.

who do you pass your selections on to, theggiggollo? are you a famous tipster?