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Following a few recent posts on here regarding value betting it got me thinking. Also been reading a book called "Fixed Odds Sports Betting" which is fairly statistical.
Someone mentioned in order to make a long term profit you need to be consistently backing at better odds than Betfair SP (i.e. the return on your inivestment is better than the theoretical probability whether it be odds of 2.0 or 20.0). I definitely agree.
Does anyone have any thoughts what % edge is realistic over BSP you need to achieve to make worthwhile long term profits and does anyone have a similar approach to their betting? I aim for a 10% edge over BSP on all my bets.
Someone mentioned in order to make a long term profit you need to be consistently backing at better odds than Betfair SP (i.e. the return on your inivestment is better than the theoretical probability whether it be odds of 2.0 or 20.0). I definitely agree.
Does anyone have any thoughts what % edge is realistic over BSP you need to achieve to make worthwhile long term profits and does anyone have a similar approach to their betting? I aim for a 10% edge over BSP on all my bets.
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Its not rocket science, if you fancy something to win or place and you think there is value in the price for it to do that, then get involved, if not leave it out.
Your either a good judge, or a bad judge, a good judge will make it pay in the long run, a bad judge will not, unless he has information. |
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a loser that is 'value' is no good to anyone
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You have to be a minimum of your betfair commission rate better to make money, ie if your commission rate is 5% and you backed randomly at BSP you could expect to loose 5% of your stake in the long run, assuming you made hundreds of bets.
So to be break even you have to have a 5% edge. So your aim for a 10% edge would have you in an expected profit of 5% of your stake (in the long run). |
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Escobar.
28 Aug 12 13:33 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 310 | Blogger: Escobar.'s blog a loser that is 'value' is no good to anyone I disagree. Getting top price about winners need no further explanation. But, getting top price about your losers is also key to winning at this game. A) You can't be certain if your selections will be winners/losers before the race B) If you use adjustable stakes according to price. |
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I would only be looking at the horse in question with regards to the win anyway. So, I think we are in an agreement. I want to find the winner of the race and if the price about the selection is bigger then I expect? I step in. If the horse is shorter? I don't go looking for something else to back in the same race and simply let it run. Everyone will have their own opinion on what the price of any given horse should be in a race. I truly believe you can't be taught this and you can read every book going about the game and it still won't help you. You need experience and instinct.
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^
no its not. Price is everything. if you fancied 'heads' in a coin toss but were given 21/20 'tails' would you play? the mug may not as he thinks margin terms theres no point, the sharp will merrily play the 21/20 all day long safe in the knowledge he ll win long term. Horse racing is no different, its all just probability to 100%, opinion is factored and the perception of value takes skill but with betfair / oddschecker telling everyone what is value now its never been easier - all is required is discipline and the ability to get down. |
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that post was meant to Medellin.
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I see your point Stoozbet. The 10% edge I aim for is on top of BF commission. I should have mentioned this.
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wipeout
28 Aug 12 13:15 Joined: 25 May 08| Topic/replies: 21 | Blogger: wipeout's blog Someone mentioned in order to make a long term profit you need to be consistently backing at better odds than Betfair SP That's rubbish I'm afraid, BSP can offer some exceptional value. You would certainly need to beat industry SP by at least 10% though... |
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5%
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A 10% edge is perfectly healthy and if you can maintain it then you just need to rince & repeat to win consistently. I've seen others maintain an edge even higher but 10% is perfectly good & well and coupled with a good staking plan & discipline is fine to grind out the profits.
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That's rubbish I'm afraid, BSP can offer some exceptional value. You would certainly need to beat industry SP by at least 10% though...
BF SP is to 100%, this is the line / market / true reflection from now until infinity, it is the sample as long as liquidity exists. isolated inputs wont matter, your comment makes no sense. And regarding the industry sp remark, the industry SP is flawed in that it follows here but to margin, add to the fact the industry SP has a huge list of variables.... |
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what edge did others maintain (something for me to aspire too)?
It is the loosing sequence that is a killer for me, even though you are still betting with an edge! To minimise my losing sequences I try to look for value in horses closer towards the head of the market. |
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your bank is key to a losing sequence.
it must be able to withstand a really bad run...and expect that on the gee gees |
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You might think a horse won't win but for most there is a probability that it could. Making it pay is being able to judge that probability and jumping in where you find its chances are better than others predict. I agree with Whippin about getting good prices/ value on losers: I bet using fixed profit so the better the price the less I lose on losers and they'll be plenty of these.
To get back to Wipeout’s question, I think the only real measure of success is your profit on turnover from all bets over a decent period of time ie money made against that risked/ staked. |
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It's not about finding the winner.It's about finding horses that are overpriced in your opinion.
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An example with evidence (I'm not affiliated with this website/person in any way) is http://bettingbias.com/todays-tips who maintained a 38% edge throughout 2011. I would suggest that this is very much at the top end of what is possible though...
I've been advising trades on my Betfair Blog here for the last month http://community.betfair.com/stoozbet/blog and have an 86% strike rate (over a very small sample of 22 trades advised in August). If you traded these to make 30% profit each time (many trade so that higher profit levels are available) then your ROI is around 12% which seems pretty maintainable. |
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We all have a learning curve to climb but when someone says 'price is irrelevant if it loses' you know they are at the bottom of their curve
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Its a never ending argument, what good is 10/1 about a 5/1 loser, some will argue its no good, others will say if you keep getting 10/1 about a horse that goes off 5/1 then you will win in the long run. Simple maths they will argue, but its not guaranteed because true odds are impossible to compile in horse racing, what you think should be 6/1 could be a 12/1 chance in someone else's book, the betfair market gives you what the majority perceive to be the true odds but its still only opinion. There are sound points on either side of the debate but the middle ground is where you want to be imo, only back when you think there is value in the price but dont back something you dont think can win just because the price is bigger than you think it should be, 33s about a 20/1 chance is still a 20/1 chance, for the long term maths to work out, you might have to find 33s about 30 other percieved 20/1 chances to show a profit before even taking into account all the factors that go into a race.
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To blindly say that price is all that matters is very silly, some people are assuming that if you run a race 20 times, the 20/1 shot will win one, when that is not the case, you could run the race 50 or 60 times and it might not have won, you might have to run it 1000 times before it achieves a strike rate of 1 in 20, that is the flaw with the maths angle.
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a loser that is 'value' is no good to anyone
A very common mistake made by losers . When will you learn ?????? YOU WILL NEVER MAKE THE GAME PAY LOOKING FOR WINNERS . |
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MAKE THE GAME PAY BY LOOKING FOR LOSERS THAT ARE VALUE
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^^^^
If you constantly find overpriced horses you will win over the long term . DEFINITELY Which type of horse sums you up ? A 9/4 fav that holds on by a neck or a 12/1 shot with form figures 049 , that gets beat by a length ? |
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how many times were the all blacks and fedderer value or over priced when harry was making millions betting them blind,and when he hit a losing streak was it because they wernt value,or because they hit a post or it rained, or the reff had a stinker or fed broke a racket string, etc, etc ,etc,
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poster -
To win long term the price must be 'wrong' Any daft tw@t can pick winners I know of many people that stand in bookies and throw 20s and 30s on regularly --- but i know of not 1 single person who would risk that amount on anything more than 8/1 . The compilers know what sort of horse these mugs go for . |
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10 weeks ago you could have had what many on here would consider the key to a fortune,hugh taylor giving you the nod 12 hours in advance just before you went on a 70 odd race losing run,
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I wouldnt define myself by either of those brian, can you show me the evidence that you have made profit in the long run by backing overpriced horses? You need the discipline of a monk and there is absolutely nothing to say you wont be losing for ten years before a mad rush in the 11th puts you in profit, do you have the bank to lose for 10 years?
Its like the roulette wheel, its not impossible for black to hit 50 times in a row, the doubling up on red banks are long knocked out by then. Probability works out over a huge period of time, you might get lucky early but probably wont, you need serious bank and serious patience, most gamblers do not have. I back horses that I fancy to win, if the price is right, I do not back 25/1 shots because I think they should be 20s. |
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Many a pro punter will make 10% profit on turnover each year .
How many betting shop regulars would be happy with a 2k profit after a 20k turnover ??? Ans - NONE . |
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if you are consistently getting a good price of course you will get losers that are value.
just because you are getting a good price it doesn't mean that some of your losers weren't good prices, it's daft to say that losers cannot be value. of course the only way you know whether you are getting good prices is the long run p&l. as for beating betfair SP, if you could consistently beat this, you would definitely make profits in the long run, that's a mathematical certainty. |
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terry norman always gets my goat as he says 'a horse isn't value at any price if you think it can't win'
how many horses does he think genuinely have no chance of winning in a race, most will be backable at some price that you think becomes a good price or worth a lay at a certain price too. |
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to quote nevo who,s been racing with and seen the way all the so called shrewdies bet,when they used to clean up the mug money in betfairs early days,
he,d now do his tissue and if he thought his fancy was a 10 to 1 shot ,he,d rather back it at 8,s than 12,s because in the long run he no,s the shortening ones are more likely to be running on their merits, still cant work out with all the shrewdies about following the old advice the bigger the price the bigger the bet,and yet they still go on drifting, and drifting,  |
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GB is right, people come into this game thinking it's going to be 16-1 winners day after day...
The only way to be able to make money is to rate all runners against each other. All these stats based apporaches don't tend to last - it's just backfitting. As for value - people take about it like it's the Holy Grail. Value is just another persons opinion, nothing more, nothing less. |
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Whitty .
If you can back/ lay a certain type of horse that has been underestimated/ over by the market you will show a profit over the long term . And i dont agree you need the discipline of a monk . Heres a of a p/l - just a simple laying system for 3YO races - liability fifty quid per race .Total Deposits: Total Deposits: Total Withdrawals: Net Deposits: £1,469.38 £4,549.44 £-3,080.06 £2,230.00 £3,435.73 £-1,205.73 |
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1st time poster 28 Aug 12 17:31
to quote nevo who,s been racing with and seen the way all the so called shrewdies bet,when they used to clean up the mug money in betfairs early days, he,d now do his tissue and if he thought his fancy was a 10 to 1 shot ,he,d rather back it at 8,s than 12,s because in the long run he no,s the shortening ones are more likely to be running on their merits, still cant work out with all the shrewdies about following the old advice the bigger the price the bigger the bet,and yet they still go on drifting, and drifting, getting on gambles at bottom price will not yield profits, if you are jumping on the train following the money you need to get on it before it reaches its final destination. |
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Yeah yeah, value IS the holy grail.
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It's why bookmakers and casino's are opening up faster than any other business all over the world.
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I wouldnt define myself by either of those brian, can you show me the evidence that you have made profit in the long run by backing overpriced horses? You need the discipline of a monk and there is absolutely nothing to say you wont be losing for ten years before a mad rush in the 11th puts you in profit, do you have the bank to lose for 10 years?
I disagree with you there whitty - There are strategies/ systems that will exist til the last man on earth takes his last breath . And dont believe anything else . |
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hello
 sum very intelligant people hear  "others will say if you keep getting 10/1 about a horse that goes off 5/1 then you will win in the long run". it no true most gamble no win so no true. "Simple maths they will argue, but its not guaranteed because true odds are impossible to compile in horse racing", no true it be to true odd can be made my freind he make it true odd "what you think should be 6/1 could be a 12/1 chance in someone else's book", it no mater what other peoples think it what price you make pick best luck page very good |