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2012 Flat Season - Notebook Selections
2012 Flat Season - Notebook Selections
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O Ma Lad 1pt win @ 18-1, bog, 5.25 Newb
Always out the back of the telly on his reappearance 27 days ago - jockey reported the gelding reported moved poorly throughout and the vet found him to be lame. The fact he's reappearing within 4 weeks would suggest (hopefully) it was nothing too serious - even though he was a NR last week. OML was added to the notebook on his last start last season when on just his 6th start and first at 12f, he was unfortunate to run into the progressive Hot Spice, with the first 3 clear of the rest (3rd horse run well since on the AW). He steps up to 2m today and there is stamina on the dam's side, and though he has prove himself on the ground, he is of interest as an unexposed potential stayer. |
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L Frank Baum 1pt EW @ 20-1, bog, 5.25 Newb
L Frank Baum was added to the notebook following his victory at Bath last season when under 10 stone in soft ground he looked value for more than the winning margin as he looked to be dossing a bit in front. He blew out badly on his next 2 starts (the first time in the Cesarewitch) and was subsequently sold out of Gay Kelleway's yard for just £15K last October. He starts out for his new stable off just a 2lb higher mark (runs off 77, has been rated as high as 90) than for his Bath victory on just his 15th start. Cheekpieces are applied, soft ground suits and stamina is clearly his forte. So is selected in the hope that he is his ready to roll on his first start for his in-form (3 winners in the past 2 weeks) yard. |
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Newnton Lodge 1pt EW @ 14-1, bog
Impressive debut at Sandown to quicken up on soft ground from last position and win comfortably. Perhaps the overall form could have worked out better, though the second has won twice since including off 80, suggesting NL isn't harshly treated off 83. Given the promise of the debut win it was alarming to see NL not appear again until 2 months later when wearing a hood, weak in the betting and running a shocker to finish last. Reported by his trainer to be powerfully built, a chance is taken at a price in a race where the fav is taking a big chunk out of the market, that Newnton Lodge can build on his debut promise now returned to soft ground, and it is encouraging that the trainer had a winner earler this week with one on its seasonal return (albeit a short-priced fav who was expected). |
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*Just noticed he's 16-1 with Vic, bog
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LOL, out to 18s now. Do they know the horse has gone at the game, or the fav will be winning by half-the-track?
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just seen Hugh Taylor has followed you in with L Frank Baum, George....your fame is spreading obv
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Funny that, cos I could have swore the price was being shortened before Hugh posted it as a selection.
Some bookies must be psychic, eh? |
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Btw, wish he'd waited til I'd found a 4th one for me EW yankee before wrecking the price
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he's a menace, George...seems a top bloke but the game's hard enough without having to worry about what Hugh might be putting up
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Duncan, it's a strange one. Hugh can clearly make the game pay, yet chooses to wreck the prices before he's even on him himself.
Hard to believe that however much ATR pay him, it's enough. Perhaps he keeps a few back for himself! |
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They must be paying him plenty, George...otherwise he'd go down the tipping line route surely...you never see Henry Rix on a bike and he barely tips a winner anymore! (or so i've heard)
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2 wins from 29 lucky dips, fair to say it ain't great, and as they say on the telly about out-of-form trainers, I could use a winner...
For Betfair SP calculations, Lui Rei did place. He gave the others a few lengths start, and then had to wait for daylight when trying to challenge before keeping on. Doubt it was the difference between winning and losing, but a satisfactory comeback and we'll keep an eye on him. Newnton Lodge ran as the market predicted - shockingly. Free early on before dropping out the back of the telly. The less said about the last race the better P/L ISP / Early Price: -11.5 Betfair SP: -4.42 Betfair SP 1pt level stake: Win: +2.56 (2/29 7%) Place: -0.72 (9/29 31%) |
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Hugh put the mockers on you, George....still showing a profit to BSP tho, so not much to worry about
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Ice Blast 1pt win @ 11-2, bog
Now 16lb below his highest rating. He caught the eye on his final start last season at Beverley when travelling well into contention before not being knocked about and the jockey looking over both shoulders for some reason. Suspect there'll be a day for this one, no doubt the market will dictate when. |
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*6.05 Thirsk
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Allied Powers, 1pt win @ 9-1, bog. 2.00 Newb
Shaped well in this race last year on his reappearance when the ground would have been quick enough for him, putting in some good late work under a sympathetic ride. He has a bit to find on the figures, but the ground is in his favour, his stable are in good form, and he has been gelded. |
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Forest Row, 1 pt win @ 5-1 bog, 4.55 Newb
Half-brother to Presvis who caught the eye on his debut at this track when coming from some way back and finishing off strongly despite greeness (Trumpet Major finsihed 3rd). He wasn't seen again until 5 months later when well backed but disappointing. He has been gelded since last seen and is given another chance to confirm that debut promise. Petaluma also caught the eye on debut, putting in some good late work once the penny dropped. |
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Now for the more specualtive ones...
My Girl Anna 1pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 4.40 Naas Shaped well on her reappearance at Dundalk when having to switch out wide to challenge before running on well. She disappointed lto but there might have been an excuse as the jockey reported she'd lost her action. MGA hasn't been overly raced for her age, looks to have a bit of size about her, and is given the chance to build on her reappearance promise now her fitness has been advanced. Spanish Acclaim 1pt EW @ 25-1 bog, 5.35 Thirsk Didn't look gone at the game last July when staying on well and beaten just over a length at Epsom, but ran shockers on his final 4 starts. Enough negatives here too - ground and stable form. But a chance is taken at a price now he has had the pause that refreshes, he has fallen 8lb below his last winning mark, and is having just his second start for a stable which is capable of restoring him back to his best. Always The Lady 2pts EW @ 20-1, Laddies, 5.25 Newb Got the close-up "weakening" when running over c/d on her handicap debut last October. My opinion was that she did have run left in her but just had nowhere to go and was eased. Her trainer thought enough of her to try on her in Listed company on her final start and while she wasn't up to that task, is of interest now returned to handicap company, for a stable going well. Bapak Pintar 1pt EW @ 14-1 bog, 8.00 Nott Possibly unlucky not to win the other week at Redcar despite finishing only 4th, having to wait an age for a clear run before finishing off well when finally in the clear, despite his jockey not being too hard on him once he realised he couldn't win. Step up in trip and totally different ground the concerns today, but a chance is taken at a price, running here off the same mark. Hurakan 1pt EW @ 20-1, PP 6lb below his last winning mark and of interest now returned to the AW having had a pipe opener at Donny. Was notebooked last July at Ascot under TC when shaping nicely. Having his second run for his new yard today and James Doyle takes the ride. |
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Crikey, that's 17 points (so far
 ) staked, could be owing me booking some wonga after all these have bitten the dust  |
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booking? bookie, ya div.
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Good luck today, George...still inclined to hang fire rather than get heavily involved this early in the season but no doubt be a few eyecatchers this aft.
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Duncan, I agree, hanging fire is deffo the best policy at this stage of the season. But as I'm a bit of an action junkie, what the heck!
The worst that can happen is the thread will end up a few hundred points in the red... Btw, didn't someone ask Hugh the other week about betting on the Flat at this time of year? Think his answer was that there are angles to be found - trainer stats, best fresh horses, etc |
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yeah, Hugh's big on his fto and 2to strike rate stats ie A.Trainer fto 4% 2to 19%...remember a few yrs ago he was all over Karl Burke 2yos 2to.
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A nice trade, but alas another loser with Allied Powers
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It just so happens I have plenty of notebook horses running today and while the hedgehoppers were on, I've typed the last of them up.
Princess Caetani 1pt win @ 10-1 bog. 7.45, Wolv Half-sister to Septimus who caught the eye on debut when trained by MJ, a tall sort who was slowly away and was possibly at a disadvantage racing round the inner on cut-up ground. Not so promising the next twice on quicker ground and this may be sharp enough, but looked the sort who would do well with a winter on her back, and has gone to a trainer who won with one earlier this week which had been sent to him from the Ed Dunlop. Specific 1pt EW @ 14-1 bog, Laddies. 8.15, Wolv Caught the eye on her debut at Newmarket last season, a bit outpaced and not getting the best of runs before going on nicely at the finish. Ran OK on her next start at Goodwood before disappointing on soft ground. Although stable form could be better, of interest on her return as a daughter of Dubawi switching to poly'. Into The Wind 1pt win @ 22-1, bog. 9.15 Wolv First caught the eye at Lingfield in July when looking in need of further, and backed that impression up when twice narrowly denied when stepped up to middle distances at Warwick. Not handicapped out of things, just a question of whether she'll need the run and if the break has restored her to form, so at a price, just the minimum stake. Last Shadow 1pt EW @ 8-1 bog, spoilsports, 7.30 Nott Caught the eye on his recent debut at Donny when quite green and not well positioned being held up as things panned out, but noted making a up s deal of ground up the straight to finish 5th. Selected EW with George Baker an encouraging booking. I make that 21 points staked Gonna be an expensive day |
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Not a bad day as it turned out with a couple of winners and number of placings, but it would have been even better had Princess Caetani not been mullered by the eventual winner when about to challenge.
Today's results: Ice Blast 1pt win @ 11-2, bog lost Allied Powers, 1pt win @ 9-1, bog. 2.00 Newb 2nd Forest Row, 1 pt win @ 5-1 bog, 4.55 Newb 1st My Girl Anna 1pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 4.40 Naas 3rd Spanish Acclaim 1pt EW @ 25-1 bog, 5.35 Thirsk lost Always The Lady 2pts EW @ 20-1, Laddies, 5.25 Newb 2nd Bapak Pintar 1pt EW @ 14-1 bog, 8.00 Nott 3rd Hurakan 1pt EW @ 20-1, PP 2nd Princess Caetani 1pt win @ 10-1 bog. 7.45, Wolv 3rd Specific 1pt EW @ 14-1 bog, Laddies. 8.15, Wolv lost Into The Wind 1pt win @ 22-1, bog. 9.15 Wolv lost Last Shadow 1pt EW @ 8-1 bog, spoilsports, 7.30 Nott 1st On day Early Price / ISP: +18.24 Betfair SP: +11.63 Footnotes Ice Blast was easy enough to back and was never involved. Spanish Acclaim showed early speed before weakening rapidly. Perhaps if and when his stable hit a purple patch in the summer he'll be of interest again. Specific is a good-bodied filly but looks a little one paced. I think she'll win a race, perhaps back on turf over further. Into The Wind was a big price and shaped OK on her return having been held up. Last Shadow still looked green when winning and I think there will be more to come from him. |
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P/L
ISP / Early Price: +6.74 Betfair SP: +7.21 Betfair SP 1pt level stake: Win: +2.70 (4/41 10%) Place: +13.38 (17 /41 41%) |
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wd George - i even bought a new notebook for this season
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BJG, people may scoff, but how the feck are we supposed to remember everything with so much racing
Especially when ya've got a memory like a sieve |
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Keep it up ... interesting thread George.
Best of luck  |
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Aye, started jottin em down on another forum, startin fresh the start of the season - impossible to keep track unless they are jotted down somewhere
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Got a bit ridiculous with the number of selections today, may try and stick to a maximum of 4 on busy days.
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My notebook is so full of **** I'm thinking of starting a new one
 wd today George |
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Ice blast wants gd/fm ground nice time at york last season and yet been running on the wrong ground.If you look at the horses from that york runis very well handicapped,an obvious easterby non trier!!
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Only just read this thread.
Nice one George and good luck. |
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giggilo, interesting that York run was the only time Iceblast has worn blinkers...must have decided they didnt work
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I think Ice Blast backers knew their fate when curly monkey GBS was being sent off fav.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bapak Pintar is tried in headgear next time, wasn't sure he was putting it all in. |
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Race in focus - 3.20 Curragh
Cnocan Diva is much respected. She originally caught the eye on her handicap debut at Navan last October and did so again when winning at Limerick, doing so despite enduring a wide trip throughout. No surprise if she turns out to be different class to these. I do however have 2 eyecatchers in the race at prices - Maggie The Cat caught the eye on her reappearance. Very slowly away (which isn't unusual for her) and losing several lengths, she was never going to get to the winner who made all (and won again yesterday from the front), but perhaps she was a shade unfortunate not to be placed, travelling well but not having daylight on the bend into the straight and again inside the final furlong. Her reluctance to come out of the stalls is an obvious concern, but she is 6lb below her winning mark, is entitled to come on for her reappearance, and her stable are in form (3 winners past fortnight). Incidentally, the other horse her stable ran in the race, Hawkswood, has since come out and won twice (since fitted with a tongue tie). Winning Impact caught the eye 2 runs back at Dundalk, looking to have plenty of run left in him but getting no run whatsoever inside the final furlong. Now we need to be careful here, cos you'll go skint following 'unlucky' losers who didn't have much luck up that inside rail at Dundalk. However, as he has been lightly raced, has fallen 2lb below his last winning mark, and can go well fresh, he is of interest at a price. Not sure how to play this, cos I'm loath to take on Cnocan Diva who I think could have a lot more to come, yet have a couple at prices I'm interested in. Sod it, absolutely ridiculous to play 3 in a 14 runner race, but who cares 1 pt win Cnocan Diva @ 4-1 bog 1 pt win Maggie The Cat @ 12-1 bog 1 pt EW Winning Impact @ 22-1 bog |
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Face Value 1pt EW @ 20-1 bog, spoilsports
Caught the eye a couple of times when with Brian Meehan (was included in last year's notebook threat). He then ran for Gordon Elliott and won on his hurdles debut (subsequently disqualified - banned substance found in sample), before getting off the mark at Wolverhampton having had a run round Dundalk. His next run when turned over at 6-4 is readily forgiven given it came quick enough just 2 days later, and he got caught wide from his outside draw. He hasn't been seen since and has changed stables (same owner), but he remains of interest given he's lightly raced and races off a mark 5lb below his initial UK rating. |
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5.50 Curragh
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