There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 2817 comments are related to the topic:
2012 Flat Season - Notebook Selections
2012 Flat Season - Notebook Selections
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 2,817
|
By:
do you have inside information or are these tips from stable contacts?
|
|
By:
George's all seeing eyes
 |
|
By:
I need inside information, who here has good inside information?
|
|
By:
not many on here (imo)
 |
|
By:
volontiers, they're not tips, just observations / selections from an unhinged forumite
God forbid anyone loses money following them. If I manage to break even by the end of the Flat season, I'll have had a result! |
|
By:
that's not a good system, if you are aiming to break even, you might as well stop now.
|
|
By:
Volontiers, did you really join in April or have you any previous forum names you'd like to share with us, iyo?
 |
|
By:
I got my computer in march and after I learnt how to use it, joined here.
|
|
By:
Btw, Alain Charnier is ya man for stable information
|
|
By:
gl
 |
|
By:
is he here often and how can I receive information from him, my mate who is a greyhound punter says if I back inside information at big prices I can then lay them for no loss, is this true?
|
|
By:
shut up fool nobody gives out that kind of info on here !!
|
|
By:
volontiers, they're not tips, just observations / selections from an unhinged forumite
God forbid anyone loses money following them. If I manage to break even by the end of the Flat season, I'll have had a result! Be great if we could all break even . Not many can if honest with themselves Since joining in 2002 I'm £2400 down on here (somebody has to ) thats without what is frittered away elsewhere dave |
|
By:
He's a frisky won, aint he.
 |
|
By:
that's an average loss of a fiver a week over 10 years, good going.
|
|
By:
George just a couple of suggestions on recording everything so you can learn from results.
1. I would record your actual stakes as you are doing 2. Record the Level Stake profit in the win (BSP if you like) 3. Record LSP in the place market too Thing is until you see the numbers clearly on a spreadsheet it is hard to see where you P/L is coming from, especially when you get deep in the season and there are a lot of bets. A simple spreadsheet will help you work out how best to bet your selections How long do you intend to keep each notebook horse for? I mean how many runs withouut a win before you bin them? Are you adding more notebook horses as you watch the season unfold? Interesting thread |
|
By:
Bet 2: Titus Bolt 1 pt win @ 6-1 Joe C, SJ, 5.55 Wolver
The thing about this sort of thread is that to do everything possible to try and ensure you give yourself the best chance of making a profit, is (apart from obviously finding a winner or 2) to make sure you get out of bed early enough to get the best prices... Not surprised Titus Bolt has been well backed, cos he did catch the eye on his second start with how well he travelled before not at all being given a hard time. Very much of interest on his return to poly' for his handicap debut. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Just had a look at that 5.55 George and Dylan's Dream is on a/w debut from a Sire we both like
 |
|
By:
judorick, thanks for your suggestions. I'm not too concerned about recording everything as not every notebook horse I have will be put up as a selection, but it's not a bother to do as you suggest for the horses which are posted as selections.
Yes, every race will be looked at and more horses added. All horses will remain on file for consideration, but obviously I won't be following any over a cliff. |
|
By:
I am going to keep doubling up until you have a winner and then stop.
|
|
By:
That reminds me, i must get my fishing tackle out and get it ready for the new season.
|
|
By:
Virgin, good luck with Dylan's Dream. No hardship to have a little on at 40s+ on here..
|
|
By:
what I mean about comparing your actual staking to other staking options such as level stakes or gradual increases and so on is that you might spot a way to make more profit
For instance, I went through a similar process about 10 years ago and found some interesting stats on my bets. I was averaging three points per bet but was only staking one point on horses at 20 or bigger. As it turned out these 20+ selections had a better ROI than any other price range and I was missing out on profit by over staking the shorter ones and under staking the bigger priced ones that was just for my selections but I only found out by recording and analysing so I suggest this to every one - record everything and find out for your own betting |
|
By:
BFSP level stakes so far -
Win market: -4 Place market: +0.1 |
|
By:
George Ta
 just took some 33-1 with BOG 365 everytime I deposit on here I p1ss it away |
|
By:
Yes, interesting comment, judorick. Not very bright to be staking more points on relative shorties which get turned over and having just the minimum on decent priced winners.
Doubt I'll be putting many up like the ones I did on the first day unless they're confident selections at those prices. |
|
By:
8.55 Wolver - Casa Bex 2 pts win @ 7-2 generally, bog
Also Zuzu Angel, 8.55 Wolver, 1pt EW @ 8-1 Billies, bog Disappointing lto but Casa Bex had previously looked like a winner waiting to happen, shaping as if a step up in trip was needed on his return in January and then not getting the breaks over 7f at Lingfield. Another step up in trip, headgear off and Fortune booked. So better expected. Zuzu Angel has given the impression the best has yet to be seen of her and a step up in trip will suit (half-sister to a 10f winner). Entitled to have needed comeback when I didn't think she was disgraced. So having a saver on her. |
|
By:
8 selections, 8 losers...Fecking soul destroying this, innit?
Intercept: Weakened tamely and perhaps a best fresh horse given he didn't go on last season. Had a good draw as it turned out, maybe the ground was against him and he sat too close to a strong pace given the closers dominated (other than Great Expectations who raced away from the seemingly favoured rail as well and only weakened in the last half furlong). Titus Bolt - Money continued to come for him before the off, but he was slow away and never in a good position, and could make only some late headway without ever threatening. Running Loss: Early Price / ISP -17 Betfair SP -17 Betfair SP level stakes: Win: -8 (0/8 0%) Place -3.01 (3/8 38%) There's always another day... |
|
By:
maybe tighten criteria for a bet/an stay with it
only bet certain races handicap/non-handicap/10 runners or less/fav/2nd fav ect races do come up--which offer better odds/value |
|
By:
Florio Vincitore 3.55 Newcastle, 1 pt win @ 7-2 bog
Interesting on the stable switch alone, and caught the eye on his debut for Brian Ellison at Wolverhampton, when not helped by being hampered around 4f out before being switched to the outer in the straight and keeping on nicely. Already well found in the market, but should go well if handling the ground. |
|
By:
2.00 Ling, Coporal Maddox, 1pt win @ 16-1 bog
Of interest on his polytrack debut as a horse who can travel well and whose sire has good polytrack stats. Caught the eye at Chester 3 runs back when looking to have plenty to give but not getting the breaks and then backing that up with a good second at the same course. Of course given the owner a race at Chester may be the plan again, so just the token 1pt. |
|
By:
I wouldnt get downhearted yet, George...the average price of your selections means losing runs is going to be commonplace....plus the only way to fine tune your methods is to recognise what isnt working and change it ie maybe notice certain types of eyecatchers either dont fulfil the promise or take time to do so (or are readily found by others and thus underpriced). GL today.
|
|
By:
the only way to fine tune your methods is to recognise what isnt working and change it
just to expand on the above, i used to note horses that did well despite racing up with a strong pace and, after some time, noticed a trend that they would often disappoint next time before making good on the promise further down the line....i concluded what was happening was the exertion of racing up with strong pace and battling on was leaving a mark on some in the short term. |
|
By:
Cheers for that, Duncan. I think Great Expectations could be a candidate for that theory.
|
|
By:
Morning George, just noticed you've started the note book thread up again, I will pop in now and again and see how you’re faring... I'm sure you will unearth some nice priced winners in due course, best of luck.
|
|
By:
Morning Robster, I think last year's 'threat' started badly before I found some form. Hopefully I'll find a couple of winners before I reach -100!
|
|
By:
4.45 Ling, 1 pt win - Jack Of Diamonds @ 9-2 Vic bog
Another relative shortie, but happy to risk a point on JOD at 9-2 on his first start since being gelded. The fav shaped with bags of promise on his debut on Donny and has been well backed again, but it all looked rather laboured at Kempton and I want to see that 7f on poly' is a suitable test for him before getting involved at those odds. JOD was originally notebooked on his debut when all over the shop but finishing off strongly, before performing with credit in 3 subsequent runs, and he looks a tad overpriced at 9-2 if ready to roll on his first run since the op. |
|
By:
5.15 Ling - Yankee Storm - 1pt win @ 7-1 general, bog
Notebooked 4 runs back when spotted travelling powerfully up the inside rail at Lingfield but getting no run and ending up just 2.5l behind Haadeeth. Now 6lb lower, hasn't had many goes for 'Wiggy', Moore takes over, and there should be enough pace on this time. So better expected. |
|
By:
That run was a bummer
 gl George |