That's 5 points staked at one of my least favourite tracks, it could be an expensive evening by the seaside

Just noticed that Ermyn Flyer's race is a classified not a handicap, and she's a little 3YO filly against her elders in a slog in the mud.

One of my better researched selections that one

Has every chance on the adjusted figs, we'll see.

npe

Ermyn Flyer does it nicely for you though  George well done

*Nick Mordin, not "a Nick Mordin"

Lady Amakhala 1pt EW @ 12-1 bog, 3.55 Don

Lady Amakhala makes some appeal trying 2+ miles for the first time. She  looked all about stamina last season, keeping on well to be second to Midsummer Sun in a Haydock 12f maiden, staying on strongly over the same trip to win at Ripon having been outpaced over 3f out, then putting in some late work having struggled to go with the principles when attempting to follow up in the Bell-Ringer h'cap over the same c/d.

She disappointed on her final start and didn't land a blow on her reaapearance at Catterick (behind Sohcahtoa), but she was entitled to need the run and with her fitness now hopefully advanced, this stretch 2 miles promises to suit.

Little Dutch Girl 1pt EW @ 12-1 bog, 365, 2.55 San

Well backed to win at Chepstow (1m) on debut but victory looked unlikely for much of the journey, having missed the break and run green, she was driven along from some way out before staying on strongly inside the final furlong to win narrowly from a couple of subsequent winners (one of which is now rated 75 and LDG races off 74 here). It is hoped the blinkers she wore were on to wake her up rather any temperament issue.

She looked strong at the finish that day, and as a half-sister to a 2m Flat winner / 3m hurdles winner, she is likely to improve for this greater test of stamina. Her trainer had horses win / run well in soft conditions on their reapperances last weekend.

Well done George almost a really good day

Sergeant Ablett 1pt EW @ 25-1, bog, 365. 7.10 Don

A speculative punt is taken with Sergeant Ablett who shaped with promise on his reappearance in a warm 10f handicap at the Craven meeting last year, pulling clear with 3 others who would all go on to win handicaps off higher marks. Perhaps that effort can be marked up given he cut out the donkey work and raced away from the other 3, and therefore it was disappointing that he didn't progress himself though he ran OK on occasions.

He returns today having been gelded and off a 2lb lower mark than that good run at last season's Craven meeting, and with his stable in fair form. He would appear to go well fresh having won on his debut (for MJ) when beating Sud Pacifique (subsequently rated in the 90s) on g/s at Newcastle.

great thread george.b..your analysis of all horses is top class and very informative...better than the drivel of certain racing publications...with u on Maven..also up 2LB for that 2nd LTO..1LB off last winning mark on a/w....they should force it tonight with her on this going with no confirmed front runner in race..best of luck..

keep to level stakes win and place and u will def be in the black longterm.....no doubts there..from july on is when u will see the rewards..esp with the 3 y olds...i tend to follow them for 3 runs esp if they were placed in hertitage hacp's with big weights....nice angle that one.take that 810 race with Maven...every runner is in profit one way or the other to level stakes @ ISP..that scenario is more common than ppl think..now to BSP..well u know

Bank On Me as well gl George

Junket 1pt EW @ 15-2 spoilsports, bog, 6.05 Don

Disappointing lto when stepped up in trip, but is of interest back at a mile against her own sex. She had run well in both her previous starts this year, better than the bare result when not getting the run of things at Lingfield, then doing well to finsh second at Kempton having been given enough to do.
She had also caught the eye on occasions last season, including twice on soft ground, first time out at Sandown when having too much to do but going on at the finish and at Donny over 7f when (despite having won over 6f previously) the trip looked sharp enough.
Proven on the ground and of a mark she clearly looks capable of winning of, she is selected to return to form.

Mitchum 1pt win @ 5-1 bog, spoilsports, 6.25 Hay

Impressive winning debut at 2 and better than the bare result on his second start at Beverley, possibly not best positioned as things panned out, but going on well at the finish. He was then outclassed in Group 2 compnay before returning 3 months later and a shade disappointing on his handicap debut.
He ran ok on his return from 7 months off, showing speed to track Es Que Love (Newmarket winner since) before being left behind up the hill. He can now race off a mark 6lb below his opening one and has Dean Heslop taking a further 5lb off.
Mitchum looks to have a knee action and may well improve for racing on soft ground and is selected to make race fitness tell against a couple returning from absences / gelding operations.

I make that 11 points staked, could be an expensive evening

unlucky  G ....still in profit....thats the main thing...long season there yet...

Competitive stuff in the 2 handicaps at Navan today in which I do have notebook horses running, but with doubts about the ground / draw and whether today is the day (if there ever will be a day for these ), very much minimum stakes fodder.

In the sprint handicap I'm going to take one drawn on either side of the track (cue middle of the track heavily favoured ).

Pipers Choice 0.5pt EW @ 25-1, VC PP bog

Presumably had his problems having made it to the track only once in each of his 3 seasons to race, but interesting that his respected trainer is perservering and while there wasn't much encouragement in his first 2 runs, there were tentative signs of better to come lto. That day at Dundalk having been held up and keen, he was making headway from the rear when short of room in the final furlong and squeezed out.
With regard to the ground, one of his half-siblings did win on soft / heavy over jumps, while another won on slow going at Southwell. His draw on the wide outside may be turn out to be a disadvantage, but a speculative chance is taken now he goes handicapping off a lowly 55.

Gilt Edge 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, PP VC

Caught the eye on his debut over 7f, very slowly away and still last 2f out, before making some nice headway up the inner at Dundalk under hands and heels and going on at the finish. In his 2 subsequent qualifying runs he finished 3rd (subsequent maiden winner Atticus Finch, rated 78, ahead of him) and then never landed a blow having been held up on his 3rd start.
He now drops back in trip but this should be enough of a test given the track / going, and is selected as an unexposed 3YO against his elders with an apprentice (has ridden 3 winners) taking 7lb off.

Ice Ice Baby 0.5pt EW @ 28-1 vc, bog 4.35

It was only a claimer in which she caught the eye on her second start, but she shaped a lot better than her final position. Having raced greenly and been hampered, she was denied a clear run for some way before finishing off well, again showing signs of greeness as she swerved left.
Not seen for 6 months after, she reappeared at Limerick over 7f 31 days ago and did not shape with much encouragement.
As a half-sister to useful stayer Veiled, she is of interest today being stepped up in trip on her handicap debut.

Beloved Leader 0.5pt EW @ 25-1, bog

Of interest now switched to turf and stepped up in trip (stamina on dam's side) having caught the eye over 1m at Dundalk, staying on well having been held up out the back of the telly. Blinkers off, tongue tie retained.

Not an eye catcher as such, but interesting to see if Jessica Harrington can get some improvement from Go On Murt, being nibbled at in the betting. With you on Ice Ice Baby regards the step up in trip, and let’s not forget that last run was her seasonal debut, and final "ahem" qualifying run for a handicap mark.

The month's profits are slipping away. 4 selections, 3 of which never left the back of the telly, and Ice Ice Baby who was given a proper ride, wasn't up to it. Gonna have to knock these more guessy ones on the head and start May with a more disciplined / selective approach.

P/L

ISP / Early Price: +12.15
Betfair SP: +7.18

Betfair SP 1pt level stake:

Win: -0.78 (8/73 11%)
Place: +10.04 (29/73 40%)

Kempton 2.15 -

1 pt win Irie Ute @ 14-1, bog
1 pt win Prince Of fashion @ 9-2, bog

A chance is taken on Irie Ute at a price for his in-form stable. He caught the eye lto on turf travelling well but not not getting the clearest of runs from 2f out, and although he didn't pick up as well as anticipated once in the clear, he wasn't given a hard time and did keep on.
Doubt here is that he doesn't have the best of course records but ran OK behind Queethaara over c/d on his second run back from a break, and can race off a 6lb lower mark here.

In the same race a saver is had on Prince Of Passion who went close off today's mark over c/d last August having been given a bit to do and not getting a clear run through. He subsequently won on turf and shaped pleasingly on his return from a break over c/d 12 days ago, staying on well having had to be switched to the outer for a clear run.