*advise please* thinking of going big on frankel for QEII - should i?

No you shouldn't irrespective of whether it wins or not , if you think a horse running over a week away is your best bet of that day without knowing what other opportunities may present themselves then you've no betting strategy and need to develop one to survive , otherwise you'll become a recreational punter that has their bets dictated by marketing hype instead of controlling them yourself.

That said I know that race will hold no interest for me unless there's a guaranteed 8 runners , then it just might be of interest.


Good luck Paulme & find yourself a betting strategy that will prevent you from asking such questions in the future

frankel was bet ofthe season ante post,canford cliffs 11/10,frankel11/8,would not even entertain a bet at that price.having said that frankel,is the best miler,in history,the choice is yours.

8/1 the cumani horse e/w 8 runners will suit me as well hayden

If you are asking for advice no you should not go in big

Of course he will win but horse's are not machines and anything could happen, especially at the end of a season.
The only horse that looks a danger is the french filly Immortal Verse but only if the ground came up soft.
Should be easy money and it's exciting when you have a huge bet but that race still gives me nightmares... was at the course and had my biggest ever bet on Hawk Wing at 1/2

That's partly the point though Paulme tbh , when you develop a strategy that works for you in this instance it will be far less important whether you think the horse in question will win or not , there isn't a punter alive taking the game seriously that would advise you to do lump your hard earned on a shortie when you have no idea of other opportunities available on the day and without knowing anything about your staking plan , the strategy should be instrumental in your punting with opinion a lot further down the pecking order , so in my view you should be guided primarily by strategy boundaries than any opinion of who may or may not win , it's having an opinion on every race/sport/event you can/want to watch live that's most damaging to the vast majority of punters as it creates the " recreational " that bookmakers feed off.


Best of luck mate   

paulme

As giggitygiggity has already stated - Frankel will win

There is nothing wrong with placing a 300/1000 bet on him if you can afford it

Like every horse race ever run - there is always the chance that something will go wrong - just think about that for a moment

Frankel will be 100% fit for the race, yet he only needs to be 80% fit to win it

As long as nothing stupid happens when exiting the gate or during the race THIS WILL BE LIKE A WALKOVER

inono

Frankel will be 100% fit for the race, yet he only needs to be 80% fit to win it.

What absolute cobblers,if he was only 80% fit he would be tailed off.

If Zoffany can give it a race,then this field is more than capable,1/3 is a stupit price and only a complete mug would think of backing it now at that price,the going could turn out to be heavy,it could tread on a stone,it could suffer an over reach on the gallops,and although he has not had that many races he has been on the go from January so he has had a long season and all his races have been hard races which is why Queally came in for so much critisism for his such forcing tactics, anything can go wrong and thats before he gets to the course,there is no such thing as buying money,which is what you seem to think you will be doing,obvoiusly it should win,but then the price tells you that,if you back horses long term at long odds on you will end up in the poor house.
But good luck anyway I will be whatching ,cheering it on with no financial interestwhatsoever.

whatever you do dont back him before thursdays final declaration, price wont change much, and like above said anything can happen so youll get youre money back after then   ,

Win Back. Place Lay. If he loses its because he got pulled up after an injury or disqualified.

Paulme - Frankel could give that field a five length start AND 10lbs and STILL win - it is a stone cold certainty and will take a firing squad or the jock taking the wronmg course for it to lose...

I believe NO_BS is spot on - if you're playing with pre-existing winnings then WADE in with all existing profit and KEEP doing so until it loses,,,

If you are starting afresh though, perhaps have a decent bet and also Make it the banker of a trixie or Patent imho... e.g if you placed a £300 on Frankel and get £400 back WHEN it wins - pre-invest the £100 you WILL win on a £25 trixie or £14 Patent and try and play profits up further

NOT tipping these - just letting you know I put my money where my mouth is... I'm going to take a chance on Twice Over @ 6s and The third leg will be prob be Blue Bunting

A - Frankel - 1/3
B - Twice Over - 6/1
C - Blue Bunting 7/2

To £1 stake     £25 Trixie    £14 Patent
A   =   1.33 =     00000        18.62
B   =   7.00 =     00000        98.00     
C   =   4.50 =     00000       198.00
AB  =   9.31 =    232.75       130.43
AC  =   6.00 =    150.00        84.00
BC  =  31.10 =    777.50       435.40
ABC =  41.36 =  1,034.00       579.04
                                82.72 (£2 extra ABC Accum)
__________________________________________

                2,194.25      1644.21


ASSUMING MY ARITHMETIC IS CORRECT...

£25 Trixie with the £100 WINNINGS from Frankel wld pay £2,194.25

£14 Patent with the £100 WINNINGS from Frankel with the extra £2 on the treble wld pay £1,644.21

it is a stone cold certainty and will take a firing squad or the jock taking the wronmg course for it to lose...

thanks mate, hope you're right

anyone else get the feeling this thread will end in tears....

JULIAN1970
Date Joined: 18 Sep 06 Add contact | Send message
When: 08 Oct 11 13:24 Joined: Date Joined: 18 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 75 | Blogger: JULIAN1970's blog
inono

Frankel will be 100% fit for the race, yet he only needs to be 80% fit to win it.

What absolute cobblers,if he was only 80% fit he would be tailed off.

If Zoffany can give it a race,then this field is more than capable,1/3 is a stupit price and only a complete mug would think of backing it now at that price,the going could turn out to be heavy,it could tread on a stone,it could suffer an over reach on the gallops,and although he has not had that many races he has been on the go from January so he has had a long season and all his races have been hard races which is why Queally came in for so much critisism for his such forcing tactics, anything can go wrong and thats before he gets to the course,there is no such thing as buying money,which is what you seem to think you will be doing,obvoiusly it should win,but then the price tells you that,if you back horses long term at long odds on you will end up in the poor house.
But good luck anyway I will be whatching ,cheering it on with no financial interestwhatsoever.

paulme - regarding the above post by JULIAN1970, ignore it

"JULIAN1970" is obviously living in cuckoo land and has very little knowledge of horse racing
-------------------------------------------------------

Anaglogs Daughter and Somerset_Moan know what we have witnessed with Frankel

Frankel is unbeatable next week - I dont know what on earth JULIAN1970 is going on about

Not once have I suggested you back Frankel Antepost, wait until the day of the race when you know all is well with the horse and that he is safe and well at the racecourse

Once you are happy with everything - back him and then back him some more

Remember there is no way that Mr Abdulla or Henry Cecil will let Frankle run if they have any doubts regarding Frankels health, fitness or frame of mind - Frankle will give them the nod

Big boy Frankel will win easy at 805 fitness

I wont wish you luck as you wont need any

Frankel wont need any luck THIS WILL BE LIKE A WALKOVER

Typo

"Big boy Frankel will win easy at 80% fitness"

1/2 or 1/3 or whatever price it is for Frankle to run a mile without getting injured or slipped saddle. That is what you're backing because no horse will beat him. . .I'm sorry but this post is not up for discussion...comprende

inono - what %ge chance do you give Frankel of winning this race?

elisjohn

which horse does cumani have that would be worth backing against frankel ?

It has turned into a monster i hear, when it was winning the guineas and Royal Ascot it was still a boy..It has now turned into a man.