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thinking of going big on frankel for the race next week. am i a hype loving mug, or is it a sure thing?
horse expert advice please
horse expert advice please
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Millerracing67
Many things I am, fool I am not
I will not lower myself in the way that you have by classing me as a fool
What I will do is write the following once and once only -
When a trainer as good as Henry Cecil is fortunate enough to have a horse as good as Frankel in his stable - he is not going to rush anything, do you believe that Frankel has ever run to his 100% ability, are you aware that Frankel still has more improvement to come, Frankel has been messed about in a few races due to pacemakers being used - yet he has won all his races well
Frankel is still maturing, do you not know that their is still more to come from this big baby
Anyway thank you for the compliment on my horse knowledge - have a good night
Many things I am, fool I am not
I will not lower myself in the way that you have by classing me as a fool
What I will do is write the following once and once only -
When a trainer as good as Henry Cecil is fortunate enough to have a horse as good as Frankel in his stable - he is not going to rush anything, do you believe that Frankel has ever run to his 100% ability, are you aware that Frankel still has more improvement to come, Frankel has been messed about in a few races due to pacemakers being used - yet he has won all his races well
Frankel is still maturing, do you not know that their is still more to come from this big baby
Anyway thank you for the compliment on my horse knowledge - have a good night
Millerracing67
I forgot to mention, I will be happy if Frankel runs to 80% of his ability as I know that will be good enough
I forgot to mention, I will be happy if Frankel runs to 80% of his ability as I know that will be good enough
Spelling mistake
Frankel is still maturing, do you not know that "there" is still more to come from this big baby
Frankel is still maturing, do you not know that "there" is still more to come from this big baby
i seriously put 80% of my bank on frankel lto this time ill put on 100% he will not lose
if youve got the 3 why do you want the 1
nice way of looking at it
nice way of looking at it
if youve got the 3 why do you want the 1
cos its a sure thing
cos its a sure thing
I think it goes 'If you've got the 3 you don't
need the 1'
If it was a sure thing there would be no betting.
Probably priced up right at 1/3.
Totally your choice Paulme.
need the 1'
If it was a sure thing there would be no betting.
Probably priced up right at 1/3.
Totally your choice Paulme.
,it could suffer an over reach on the gallops
Have you seen this horse gallop? Over reach is the one thing that can't go wrong in my opinion.
I've never seen a horse reach so far.
Have you seen this horse gallop? Over reach is the one thing that can't go wrong in my opinion.
I've never seen a horse reach so far.
my only worry is the course.
when there is cut in the ground ascot there appears to be an issue with pace.
if its good or softer i wouldnt want him front running is all im saying.
when there is cut in the ground ascot there appears to be an issue with pace.
if its good or softer i wouldnt want him front running is all im saying.
He barely seems to touch the ground though. It's almost as if he's floating above it.
I remember Alec Bird saying the same of (I think it was) Mill Reef.
I wonder how big his stride is.
I remember Alec Bird saying the same of (I think it was) Mill Reef.
I wonder how big his stride is.
i will not be backing frankel.. a race to watch and enjoy not punt on... hope he wins but there are better 1/3 shots everyday in racing
Inono: I stand by what i said 2 your 1st post about Frankel only needs 2 be 80% "FIT" to win on Sat. U dont win G1s like this race unless u are 100% fit my friend. As 2 Frankel has more 2 come in the improvment department, i think we all no that he will and has been doing so all season, and will no doubt improve again at 4.
In good faith i ment no offence 2 u with the (fool) statement, but it was a (foolish) statement 2 make on your part about that Frankel need only 2 be 80% fit 2 win, being a racing man or woman, u should no better.
In good faith i ment no offence 2 u with the (fool) statement, but it was a (foolish) statement 2 make on your part about that Frankel need only 2 be 80% fit 2 win, being a racing man or woman, u should no better.
Millerracing67
No offence taken and no offence meant
I really do believe that 80% of an improved once again Frankel will be good enough to take the money
Good luck
No offence taken and no offence meant
I really do believe that 80% of an improved once again Frankel will be good enough to take the money
Good luck
avoiding a mishap, just has to not go too early and should see off immortal verse.
i hope.
as i say, bad for the sport if he doesnt finish the season unbeaten
i hope.
as i say, bad for the sport if he doesnt finish the season unbeaten
No doubting Frankel's superiority in this field. The problem is the price and the chaos factor. Things go wrong sometimes, a saddle slips, another horse comes over and knocks runners sideways,horse looses a shoe,gets trapped on rail,
has picked up a virus or niggling injury that isn't apparent until put under strong pressure, etc. etc. No horse ever warrents 1 to 3 on odds.
has picked up a virus or niggling injury that isn't apparent until put under strong pressure, etc. etc. No horse ever warrents 1 to 3 on odds.
If Frankel turns up in the same form as goodwood and if he is ridden in the same way, then he will win easily as the other horses are simply not capable of that level of form. I therefore cannot see how there are many better 1/3 shots on the horses, as if Frankel runs to form, he wins and there is no chance of any of his opponents improving past him.
im no expert but if he runs he wins and on that basis with a good forecast i took him ante post 1-3 and i think thats value.he'll set off 1-4
That's my point,paulme. The ,as you put it 'unforseeable' is not unforseeable. It is the chaos factor. The chaos factor in horse racing accounts for about 20% of the factors affecting an outcome.
Brigadier gerard had won all his mile races up to being beaten in the b +hedges gold cup[international now]
he was available 7/4 ante post and went off at something like 2/5 at the off,beaten,with apparently no excuses, by derby winner roberto.
the brigadier then went on to be unbeaten for the rest of his carreer over 1 and quarter to 1mile and a half,including an eclipse and 2 champion stakes.
frankel looks a good thing and prob is ,but not at those odds against a tip top filly in imm verse and excellebration for me.
he was available 7/4 ante post and went off at something like 2/5 at the off,beaten,with apparently no excuses, by derby winner roberto.
the brigadier then went on to be unbeaten for the rest of his carreer over 1 and quarter to 1mile and a half,including an eclipse and 2 champion stakes.
frankel looks a good thing and prob is ,but not at those odds against a tip top filly in imm verse and excellebration for me.
yes you can,as some american president said.500 thats my max bet.i cant really afford to go but im scared this might b frankels last run so i pulled all the stops out.no 1 on the things to do before i die.See Frankel run.Ijust love Horse Racing
Matt22 has it right
All about the odds.
1.24 or shorter~~~~ Lay It
1.25-1.35~~~~ Just watch the race, or back one of the higher odds outsiders,like Dick Turpin,who are not much inferior on overall form than Excel or the french horse IMO
1.36-1.44~~~~ Worth backing
1.45+ ~~~~ A big bet is advisable.
My own prices for this FWIW
All about the odds.
1.24 or shorter~~~~ Lay It
1.25-1.35~~~~ Just watch the race, or back one of the higher odds outsiders,like Dick Turpin,who are not much inferior on overall form than Excel or the french horse IMO
1.36-1.44~~~~ Worth backing
1.45+ ~~~~ A big bet is advisable.
My own prices for this FWIW
| QE II | Rating | Price | |
| Frankel | 137.5 | 1.30 | |
| Excelebration | 124.5 | 21 | |
| Immortal Verse | 124 | 22 | |
| Dick Turpin | 124 | 22 | |
| Cityscape | 122.5 | 29 | |
| Rio De La Plata | 121 | 37 | |
| Dubawi Gold | 118 | 64 | |
| Side Glance | 114.5 | 126 | |
| Poet's Voice | 114.5 | 126 | |
| Bullet Train | 85 | 4000 |
One of the reasons, bookmakers survive so long in making a living in horse racing, is that they love this time of the year.
Changes to the going and horses going "over the top" are 2 main reasons why you get unexpected results.
On all known form Frankel is in a different league to the opposition, but bear in mind he has been on the go all season,
and that is one of the things that would concern me if I was having a very big bet on him, not that backing odds on chances
is my way of betting anyway.
Changes to the going and horses going "over the top" are 2 main reasons why you get unexpected results.
On all known form Frankel is in a different league to the opposition, but bear in mind he has been on the go all season,
and that is one of the things that would concern me if I was having a very big bet on him, not that backing odds on chances
is my way of betting anyway.
Tobermory is bang on the target. His odds are just his opinion, and you have to decide your own
odds yourself, but his approach is precisely right.
odds yourself, but his approach is precisely right.
Tobes had danedream as 100/1+ shot for the Arc. His ratings are twank.
"Tobes" has his own opinions. What I'm saying is that his approach to betting is right. His
analysis of the form book might be totally sh1te, but that's another problem.
analysis of the form book might be totally sh1te, but that's another problem.
Agree totally. It's great methodology but just like his football prices he's chucking the wrong petrol in a very fine engine. It's a commendable approach and that's definitely to be acknowledged.
ignore german group at your peril,m johnston doesnt mind sending his over there ie german st leger?.any horse winning a g1 race by 5 lenths must be respected.
frankel different ball game ,next year, 4yold giving weight to top class 3yrolds?.
deadbrain59 -
dude... By next year Frankel is going to be nigh on a 140 rated beast... (SOME of us believe he is already that calibre)
Have YOU seen anything this year in the 2yr olds you think will be 130+ next?! Which they will need to be to even get within sniffing distance of his arse as he goes by them, even receiving 8lbs early in the season I'll be astonished... but role on next year as we may be getting some odds AGAINST when he runs :O))
dude... By next year Frankel is going to be nigh on a 140 rated beast... (SOME of us believe he is already that calibre)
Have YOU seen anything this year in the 2yr olds you think will be 130+ next?! Which they will need to be to even get within sniffing distance of his arse as he goes by them, even receiving 8lbs early in the season I'll be astonished... but role on next year as we may be getting some odds AGAINST when he runs :O))
frankel for me after 7 bar the FAV , BOOKS STRUGGLE for cash out of the rags ? which looks the case for saturday ..cant ever forget newmarket run a classic from the front queally is a thinker and will have thought this thro come raceday ..I wish him well and SIR HENRY , also owner great supporter of racing worldwide love these colours over the years . a great chance to buy money for big players , only an opinion from an older betfairian .. GUT FEELING ESSENTIALL TO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH YOUR HYPE ................
ty Pete, yes i would advise people to make their own ratings/prices.
In Group 1s this year my prices have only really looked a bit silly afterwards in the Euro Racing.
I also had Immortal Verse at 30 for the Jaques Le Marois . The French form is difficult to rate with the way they run their typical group races. .No matter how great the winner of a G 1 is , there is often still something useless only 2 1/2 lenghts back .If Frankel was trained by Freddie Head and only ever ran at Longchamp and Deauvile, his biggest winning margin would likely be about 1.5 lengths.
As for Danedream i just have to admit i've always thought German Racehorses the equivalent of British Tennis Players. Last 4 runs she had 3 easy wins in top German races , 1 run in France, and finished 5th in a nothing special field. Then there is Campanolgist; over here , every time you see him he is tailing off in a Group 3, goes to Germany and wins Group 1s comfortably . Well done to the people who could see beyond all that and feel there was something special about Danedream, wether in her running syyle or whatever (still don't think the actual form was suggesting she could have done that).
Frankel i have , since the Guineas , always had quite a bit shorter than he is available anywhere.
In Group 1s this year my prices have only really looked a bit silly afterwards in the Euro Racing.
I also had Immortal Verse at 30 for the Jaques Le Marois . The French form is difficult to rate with the way they run their typical group races. .No matter how great the winner of a G 1 is , there is often still something useless only 2 1/2 lenghts back .If Frankel was trained by Freddie Head and only ever ran at Longchamp and Deauvile, his biggest winning margin would likely be about 1.5 lengths.
As for Danedream i just have to admit i've always thought German Racehorses the equivalent of British Tennis Players. Last 4 runs she had 3 easy wins in top German races , 1 run in France, and finished 5th in a nothing special field. Then there is Campanolgist; over here , every time you see him he is tailing off in a Group 3, goes to Germany and wins Group 1s comfortably . Well done to the people who could see beyond all that and feel there was something special about Danedream, wether in her running syyle or whatever (still don't think the actual form was suggesting she could have done that).
Frankel i have , since the Guineas , always had quite a bit shorter than he is available anywhere.
Frankel is the superstar of horse racing. Like Usain Bolt, Lionel Messi and Sachin Tendulkar he transcends his sport. You don’t need to be interested in form, odds, tactics or jockeyship to be impressed by his freakish speed.
Frankel could have a Bolt-style impact on the popularity of horse racing among the masses if only the powers that be market his brilliance in the manner he deserves.
from the Manchester Evening News.
Frankel has to win for the good of the sport!!
Frankel could have a Bolt-style impact on the popularity of horse racing among the masses if only the powers that be market his brilliance in the manner he deserves.
from the Manchester Evening News.
Frankel has to win for the good of the sport!!
buses - you said on other thread you're going EW. really 
oh definitely paul, good solid bet EW for me!!
20 quid ew
20 quid ew
oh sory you really are backing £20 EW.
at 1/3 isnt EW gonna make you like 2p
at 1/3 isnt EW gonna make you like 2p
of course not paul
no bet for me, i dont mind shorties but i dont back 1/3 shots in g1 races no matter how much better they are than the rest!!
he still has to negotiate around the rest of the horses, traffic probs, false step, jockey error, all these things combined i cant bet on him!! there are much better betting opportunities out there at 1/3 and bigger.
not fr me!!
gl if u bet!
no bet for me, i dont mind shorties but i dont back 1/3 shots in g1 races no matter how much better they are than the rest!!
he still has to negotiate around the rest of the horses, traffic probs, false step, jockey error, all these things combined i cant bet on him!! there are much better betting opportunities out there at 1/3 and bigger.
not fr me!!
gl if u bet!
Please ilwab
Go for it just this once
You know it makes sense
Go for it just this once
You know it makes sense
not for me inono, there are far betterbets out there!!
ill be cheering him home!
ill be cheering him home!
lol buses i used to bet 50p EW on the national as a kid.
happy innocent days
happy innocent days
ah yeah
i would never make fun of anyone tht bets small, or just wants to have a quid on for interest!!
is not like any of us can make it pay anyway
i would never make fun of anyone tht bets small, or just wants to have a quid on for interest!!
is not like any of us can make it pay anyway
If Willie Carson says 'put your house on it'.....................don't! 
your a good guy buses. a breathe of fresh air on here. do you not make much like me?
like you i would support frankel without a bet anyway as i think he's good for the sport like messi or bolt
like you i would support frankel without a bet anyway as i think he's good for the sport like messi or bolt
http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/sport/other_sports/s/1461328_horse-racing-frankel-is-in-the-frame
read this buses mate
read this buses mate
Paulme,ilwabs advice for where to put your money is...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BLACK with an off white head and he is NEVER wrong.hth m8[;)]
BLACK with an off white head and he is NEVER wrong.hth m8[;)]
paul me - Us humans are a corrupted lot - dont ever believe all that you hear or see when it comes to these so called stars
Frankel has not been corrupted by our society - he only knows one thing - winning[;)]
Frankel has not been corrupted by our society - he only knows one thing - winning[;)]
paul me that media link should surely read "Frankel Innit"
ah i do ok, im up and down like a yoyo but dont make/ or lose anything worth talking about tbh!
i do dream of eventually making significan sums but its more of a long term thing, and unlikely to happen anyway[smiley:crazy
most just talk sh!te on here andliar about winning aswell as losing large amounts which is very odd!
im pretty sure i could give even the best tipsters a run for their money on either football or horse racing yet they will tell u they are making a bomb!!
all b0llocks paul, the sooner u realise this the better
BUT someone is winning thats for sure, im pretty sure they dont post on this forum tho
i do dream of eventually making significan sums but its more of a long term thing, and unlikely to happen anyway
[smiley:crazymost just talk sh!te on here andliar about winning aswell as losing large amounts which is very odd!
im pretty sure i could give even the best tipsters a run for their money on either football or horse racing yet they will tell u they are making a bomb!!
all b0llocks paul, the sooner u realise this the better
BUT someone is winning thats for sure, im pretty sure they dont post on this forum tho
im pretty sure i could give even the best tipsters a run for their money on either football or horse racing yet they will tell u they are making a bomb!!
spot on. im actually top of a tipping comp on here yet i make F all. too honest i am
inono - FRANKEL INNIT lol
spot on. im actually top of a tipping comp on here yet i make F all. too honest i am
inono - FRANKEL INNIT lol
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
ilwab - I am winning, the only thing that bohers me is that I could be losing soon
ilwab - I am winning, the only thing that bohers me is that I could be losing soon
Like a yoyo Also like a fiddlers elbow paulme but that is only in the Stags Head with Big Brigitte,his advice is usually sound even if his mind is not.[;)]
Also like a fiddlers elbow paulme but that is only in the Stags Head with Big Brigitte,his advice is usually sound even if his mind is not.[;)]
Heading to UK tomorrow ilwab,hoping to meet up with molerat,possibly Donny next week,armed with a thick brown envelope.
Know then ilwab that Molerat is doing well here
The only thing that bothers me about Molerat is that he would not believe me when I informed him that I had a reply from the great stable of H.. c.ecil
I could not way it up
Perhaps Molerat is set in his ways and believes nothing apart from the racing Post - Oh well never mind
Right I must get of to bed or I will be in deep *&%$#
Good luck and goodnight
The only thing that bothers me about Molerat is that he would not believe me when I informed him that I had a reply from the great stable of H.. c.ecil
I could not way it up
Perhaps Molerat is set in his ways and believes nothing apart from the racing Post - Oh well never mind
Right I must get of to bed or I will be in deep *&%$#
Good luck and goodnight
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Sorry about that one paulme, I had no intention of messing up your post
The coding for colours and letter sizes gets a touch messy at times
I will go over to the Chit Chat Forum - there is a page there that I have been using for testing the layout of tables and colours etc
My apologies - I will try and get back here with a nice green Frankel just for you
I'ts too early yet to be thinking about the going for the big race
Later
The coding for colours and letter sizes gets a touch messy at times
I will go over to the Chit Chat Forum - there is a page there that I have been using for testing the layout of tables and colours etc
My apologies - I will try and get back here with a nice green Frankel just for you
I'ts too early yet to be thinking about the going for the big race
Later
ok back to the thread... im getting nervous about Frankel.
will the rain affect the him??
will the rain affect the him??
Hearing you've backed him might affect him. Let's hope he doesn't have a link to the Betfair forums in his stable.
PAUL... FFFFFFFFFFFS
GO AND WATCH HIS FIRST EVER RACE... HOSED UP ON THE BRIDLE OVER 8F IN A BOG...
THEN READ HIS PEDIGREE - HIS DAM'S SIDE IS OUT OF RAINBOW QUEST - WHEN DID YOU EVER SEE A RAINBOW QUEST THAT DIDN'T STAY OR HAD A DISLIKE FOR A BIT OF MOISTURE?? His SIRE's SIDE is Galileo and they have no isue with g/soft... this thing goes on ANY GROUND
It's an effing machine - the rain will HELP IT, since it already stays 10f (WE JUST HAVEN'T SEEN IT IN PUBLIC) and it will dull the kick of the 7-8f merchants who will be struggling to get home
GO AND WATCH HIS FIRST EVER RACE... HOSED UP ON THE BRIDLE OVER 8F IN A BOG...
THEN READ HIS PEDIGREE - HIS DAM'S SIDE IS OUT OF RAINBOW QUEST - WHEN DID YOU EVER SEE A RAINBOW QUEST THAT DIDN'T STAY OR HAD A DISLIKE FOR A BIT OF MOISTURE?? His SIRE's SIDE is Galileo and they have no isue with g/soft... this thing goes on ANY GROUND
It's an effing machine - the rain will HELP IT, since it already stays 10f (WE JUST HAVEN'T SEEN IT IN PUBLIC) and it will dull the kick of the 7-8f merchants who will be struggling to get home
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbuQVPwwa30
ROYAL LODGE 2010
ROYAL LODGE 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iicnjw_U6Qc
Sussex stakes 2011 -
Sussex stakes 2011 -
Will post his maiden win in soft at HQ when the SP search is working again...!
"ok back to the thread... im getting nervous about Frankel.
will the rain affect the him?? "
If you're that nervous, then don't back him. The horse will win, but if you're having to constantly have other people reassure you, then that's probably a good sign you shouldn't make the bet.
All the time you're spending concerned about this could be put to much better use seeking out a better bet.
will the rain affect the him?? "
If you're that nervous, then don't back him. The horse will win, but if you're having to constantly have other people reassure you, then that's probably a good sign you shouldn't make the bet.
All the time you're spending concerned about this could be put to much better use seeking out a better bet.
book book = parkinsons
apologies!
and pete is infact correct!
apologies!
and pete is infact correct!
ilwab - You had me sweating for a moment - I trawled through Google trying to find out what was wrong with Frankel
On visiting back here I find you posted to the wrong topic
Check before you click the reply button, you know it makes sense
PeteTheBloke Wrote
ILWAB's from Dublin. Wind-up merchant.
What part of the above is PeteTheBloke correct about?
On visiting back here I find you posted to the wrong topic
Check before you click the reply button, you know it makes sense
PeteTheBloke Wrote
ILWAB's from Dublin. Wind-up merchant.
What part of the above is PeteTheBloke correct about?
Check before you click the reply button, you know it makes senseLaugh
petes statement is correct, pete is always correct iyo.
As straight as Frankel winning his next race
Good luck have a good day both of you
Good luck have a good day both of you
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