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*advise please* thinking of going big on frankel for QEII - should i?
*advise please* thinking of going big on frankel for QEII - should i?
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Replies: 151
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is abundantly cler hes the best horse in this its a matter of whether u think he will reproduce his normal brilliant form!! in this instance youre risking your money on whether cecil can get him there in good nick, he has way more ability that the othrs but i dont even know why im pointing out the obvious hes a 1/3 shot for cryin out loud!
all i know is , there are NO certainties and if u back him, there is an element of risk u wont get paid! its just a matter of whether u think his odds reflect his chance of winning the race, do they, yes, hes unbeaten in 8 races , most of which are at thw top level and has beaten most of, if not all of the rivals that he'll meet in this race!! u have no edge, hes prices accordingly, there are no secrets! thank you! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Paulme
The thread has digressed into 2 different debates mate in all honesty , my responses were relative to whether lumping on any 1/3 shot was prudent and i've no opinion whatsoever whether Frankel will win or not , many others see the thread as an opportunity to express views on the outcome of the race. I guessed you were looking for advice as to whether punting big lumps on shorties was sensible rather than looking for views whether this particular horse will win or indeed represented any value , if you were looking for the latter then ignore my posts altogether. Good luck whatever you play  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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thanks guys. just wanted the views of the horse racing forum shrewdies in general
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shrewdies too busymaking money to post on here
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shrewdies dont bet on horses like frankel. too much hype i guess
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paulme
This is easy money, I do agree with what ilwab has posted in as far as - do you really want to be betting at odds 1/3 in a group1 race The way I am looking at it is that this race is an easy money opportunity Just remember, if it all goes pear-shaped (I can't see that happening) you will be chasing your tail for a while To put it another way, if something goes wrong and I lose a chunk of my bank - I will need to be correct with my next 4 back bets of 1/3 FAVS to go green again over 5 X 1/3 win bets, now do you know how hard it is to select 4 X 1/3 winning FAVS on the run Thats the problem with the bet Looking at it the other way - and I am - none of us will be offered such a good opportunity to buy money for a long time to come Frankel is rock solid and we all know it, have no fear, wait until the day of the race and back Frankel like there is no tommorrow As many have already mentioned - The Odds Say It All All the very best | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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if your thinking off going big , why on earth are you asking for view on here? make your own mind up
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because im useless at horse betting and needed some expert opinion on whether frankel is likely to make it 9 from 9 or is it a bridge too far?
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well frankel has won at 7/4, 1/2, 3/10, 4/6, 1/4, 1/2, 3/10, and 8/13 have you backed it the last 8 runs? if not, why now? if so then you dont need to have a bet cos youve made your money??
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where do you get that info from denman?
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my head!
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On gd ground or better he wont be beaten on Sat. But at 1/3 it should only be a race 2 enjoy in the case of betting on Frankel.
The fool on here that thinks Frankel will only need 2 be 80% at his best on Sat 2 win should give up betting asap, u dont win G1s at 80% mate. Paulme if u bet big and dont have a prob with long odds on shots then get stuck mate, but wait till race time and your "100%" happy with everything. Best of Luck. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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if youve got the 3 why do you want the 1
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Millerracing67
Many things I am, fool I am not I will not lower myself in the way that you have by classing me as a fool What I will do is write the following once and once only - When a trainer as good as Henry Cecil is fortunate enough to have a horse as good as Frankel in his stable - he is not going to rush anything, do you believe that Frankel has ever run to his 100% ability, are you aware that Frankel still has more improvement to come, Frankel has been messed about in a few races due to pacemakers being used - yet he has won all his races well Frankel is still maturing, do you not know that their is still more to come from this big baby Anyway thank you for the compliment on my horse knowledge - have a good night | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Millerracing67
I forgot to mention, I will be happy if Frankel runs to 80% of his ability as I know that will be good enough | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Spelling mistake
Frankel is still maturing, do you not know that "there" is still more to come from this big baby | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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i seriously put 80% of my bank on frankel lto this time ill put on 100% he will not lose
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if youve got the 3 why do you want the 1
nice way of looking at it | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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if youve got the 3 why do you want the 1
cos its a sure thing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think it goes 'If you've got the 3 you don't
need the 1' If it was a sure thing there would be no betting. Probably priced up right at 1/3. Totally your choice Paulme. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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,it could suffer an over reach on the gallops
Have you seen this horse gallop? Over reach is the one thing that can't go wrong in my opinion. I've never seen a horse reach so far. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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my only worry is the course.
when there is cut in the ground ascot there appears to be an issue with pace. if its good or softer i wouldnt want him front running is all im saying. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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He barely seems to touch the ground though. It's almost as if he's floating above it.
I remember Alec Bird saying the same of (I think it was) Mill Reef. I wonder how big his stride is. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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PeteTheBloke
Good posts about a great horse | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Thanks inono. Very kind of you to say so.
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i will not be backing frankel.. a race to watch and enjoy not punt on... hope he wins but there are better 1/3 shots everyday in racing
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Inono: I stand by what i said 2 your 1st post about Frankel only needs 2 be 80% "FIT" to win on Sat. U dont win G1s like this race unless u are 100% fit my friend. As 2 Frankel has more 2 come in the improvment department, i think we all no that he will and has been doing so all season, and will no doubt improve again at 4.
In good faith i ment no offence 2 u with the (fool) statement, but it was a (foolish) statement 2 make on your part about that Frankel need only 2 be 80% fit 2 win, being a racing man or woman, u should no better. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Millerracing67
No offence taken and no offence meant I really do believe that 80% of an improved once again Frankel will be good enough to take the money Good luck | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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thanks for the further input. getting nervous now
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go big no question
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avoiding a mishap, just has to not go too early and should see off immortal verse.
i hope. as i say, bad for the sport if he doesnt finish the season unbeaten | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No doubting Frankel's superiority in this field. The problem is the price and the chaos factor. Things go wrong sometimes, a saddle slips, another horse comes over and knocks runners sideways,horse looses a shoe,gets trapped on rail,
has picked up a virus or niggling injury that isn't apparent until put under strong pressure, etc. etc. No horse ever warrents 1 to 3 on odds. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If Frankel turns up in the same form as goodwood and if he is ridden in the same way, then he will win easily as the other horses are simply not capable of that level of form. I therefore cannot see how there are many better 1/3 shots on the horses, as if Frankel runs to form, he wins and there is no chance of any of his opponents improving past him.
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spot on. only an unforseeable can stop him really
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im no expert but if he runs he wins and on that basis with a good forecast i took him ante post 1-3 and i think thats value.he'll set off 1-4
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can i ask how much stake jetaway?
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That's my point,paulme. The ,as you put it 'unforseeable' is not unforseeable. It is the chaos factor. The chaos factor in horse racing accounts for about 20% of the factors affecting an outcome.
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Brigadier gerard had won all his mile races up to being beaten in the b +hedges gold cup[international now]
he was available 7/4 ante post and went off at something like 2/5 at the off,beaten,with apparently no excuses, by derby winner roberto. the brigadier then went on to be unbeaten for the rest of his carreer over 1 and quarter to 1mile and a half,including an eclipse and 2 champion stakes. frankel looks a good thing and prob is ,but not at those odds against a tip top filly in imm verse and excellebration for me. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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yes you can,as some american president said.500 thats my max bet.i cant really afford to go but im scared this might b frankels last run so i pulled all the stops out.no 1 on the things to do before i die.See Frankel run.Ijust love Horse Racing
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Matt22 has it right
All about the odds. 1.24 or shorter~~~~ Lay It 1.25-1.35~~~~ Just watch the race, or back one of the higher odds outsiders,like Dick Turpin,who are not much inferior on overall form than Excel or the french horse IMO 1.36-1.44~~~~ Worth backing 1.45+ ~~~~ A big bet is advisable. My own prices for this FWIW
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