ADRIAN MASSEY REPLACEMENT

Err, that's finished now Deck. I'm trying to find a similar ratings site/service so that I can use past ratings (like those which Massey put up) to assess the likelihood of ratings success in FUTURE races. For example, if I have the ratings for each of the last 10 years' runnings of the Derby, I can see where the winner came in those ratings and apply that "rule" to the ratings for the current year's running.

Can anyone help?

/

Has Ady gone belly up?

I can't understand why he didn't just handover to someone else.What a waste.

I hope so,but similar clean cut CHECKABLE ratings urgently needed here.We'll see what Horseracebase's revamp looks like soon.Hopefully that will fill the void.

Have you thought of phoning the Thommo line artie?

No artie. Your hero gets straight to the crux of the matter.

No checkable ratings - no interest here.

the above site is free btw

/

"Change in personal circumstances".

think I'll steer well clear Jon, thanks for the advice

horseracebase is a quality site imo

never looked at ratings but the profiler of horses and ability to run detailed queries can allow you to form your own.

no mate can't say i've used them features.

Adrian Massey's site was an excellent resource and up until about a month ago I was using his data to lay horses with some good results. However after starting to look a little deeper I came to the conclusion that horses are a little bit like Athletes. What I mean is that if you were to look at Athlete's last few performances say over 1500m for example , you will see a common theme occurring.

Obviously there's no such thing as going or weight penalties in Athletics but the core data remains the same.

Let me explain further: If there is a handicap hurdle over 2m and last time out horse 1 ran the same distance on the same going in a time of 3m56.25s and horse 2 ran last time out the same distance on the same going in a time of 4m07.10s there is a 11 second difference between performances. Now 11 seconds doesn't sound much but if 1 length = roughly 2.5 metres and 1 second equal roughly 5 lengths, in this instance 11 seconds equals 55 lengths. Now that sounds crazy!!! There is no way horse 2 will ever beat horse 1.

Add into the equation that their next race is the same going and horse 1 has a 6lb penalty and horse 2 has a 4lbs reduction there is still not much chance of horse 2 closing up a 55 length gap.

This is a very basic example but I think you can see where I'm going. There are other factors to take into consideration but that's the gist of it.

It takes me on a 3 meeting card about 3 hours in the morning to trawl through the data. I started with real money with just £20  last Wednesday and my balance as of today is £202 .

All I do is take into account speed, distance, time, going, weight, and  find out each horses speed in meteres per second and lay the slowest horse with weight and going taken into consideration.

I never lay horses with odds greater that 17.0

I've been paper laying for about a month prior to starting with £20 and my strike rate is hovering around the 94/95% mark which is damn good. Oh, one other thing liability, not going to say what my staking plan is but you should ask the question what is my win to loss ratio?

I find it so rewarding knowing that I have found a way using my own judgement, while Adrian Massey's data was an excellent resource all I can say that if your prepared to do some leg work you can achieve some good results.

.

Further to iBETu's post the day before yesterday.

By utilising the horseracebase System Builder it takes only a few seconds to come up with a list of horses running today that are tackling the same going and race distance as encountered on their last UK run, together with their forecast odds in today's race.

Please note that race distances on horseracebase are grouped thus: 5f, 5

iBETu - http://www.patternform.co.uk looks like it is right up your street.