Horse Antepost
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Obviously very early days but I have been sucked in to an antepsot bet on a horse that is currently going a bit under the radar.
The horse is question is Endorsement - trained by Aiden O'Brien.
Beautifully bred by Wooton Bassett out of an unraced Galileo mare who is a full sister to a number of high class middle distance horses including Johannes Vermeer.
He caught my eye big time on debut in a 1m maiden at Killarney in a race where he was the stable second string behind 2/5 shot Benvenuto Cellini who had there benefit of a previous, very encouraging, run at the Curragh. It was clear to my eyes that he was not asked for maximum effort and would have finished a lot closer to the winner with some effort from his jockey (Jack Cleary).
I looked forward to his next start which took place last Sunday at Tipperary in a 9f maiden which had a few horses who had shown promise on debut where he went off a well backed Evens favorite.
He was on the outer most of the way on a fairly tight turning track and despite a slightly awkward head carriage when first asked for his effort he eventually got well on top in the last half furling and won going away by 1 3/4 lengths.
After the race Wayne Lordan said things hadn't gone exactly as planned and he would have been watching the replay a few times if he'd got beat to see what he could have done differently. I think I read somewhere that he may be aimed at the Zetland next?
The last time I went in so early for the Derby was on a horse in the same silks who had a very similar early campaign - that was Japan who went agonisingly close to winning the Derby in 2019 with Wayne Lordan dropping his whip.
The horse is question is Endorsement - trained by Aiden O'Brien.
Beautifully bred by Wooton Bassett out of an unraced Galileo mare who is a full sister to a number of high class middle distance horses including Johannes Vermeer.
He caught my eye big time on debut in a 1m maiden at Killarney in a race where he was the stable second string behind 2/5 shot Benvenuto Cellini who had there benefit of a previous, very encouraging, run at the Curragh. It was clear to my eyes that he was not asked for maximum effort and would have finished a lot closer to the winner with some effort from his jockey (Jack Cleary).
I looked forward to his next start which took place last Sunday at Tipperary in a 9f maiden which had a few horses who had shown promise on debut where he went off a well backed Evens favorite.
He was on the outer most of the way on a fairly tight turning track and despite a slightly awkward head carriage when first asked for his effort he eventually got well on top in the last half furling and won going away by 1 3/4 lengths.
After the race Wayne Lordan said things hadn't gone exactly as planned and he would have been watching the replay a few times if he'd got beat to see what he could have done differently. I think I read somewhere that he may be aimed at the Zetland next?
The last time I went in so early for the Derby was on a horse in the same silks who had a very similar early campaign - that was Japan who went agonisingly close to winning the Derby in 2019 with Wayne Lordan dropping his whip.
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Well a nice franking of Endorsement’s debut form with Benvenuto Cellini winning impressively on Irish Champions day.
He is now favourite for the Derby but looks pretty pacey to me and might be more of a French Derby horse like St Marks Basillica. His full sister Giselle won a shocking Lingfield Oaks trial but was thrashed in the Epsom Oaks. |
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Nice to see the 2nd, 5th and 6th from the Tipperary race all win next time out (3rd and 4th haven’t run since) suggesting it was a very strong race.
Bookies might as well pay me out now.  |
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lol
Good luck unk |
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Ditto. Nice write up.
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I presume "Bonnard" is Francais for bloke?
Must be a bon horse, oncle poncle? |
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You’ve lost me Pete.
 Well as expected he ran in the Zetland but the writing was on the wall once the decs came in with Super Soumi on board the stables other horse Pierre Bonnard who was subsequently hammered in to 6/4 from 4/1. The race was a bit strange for a Zetland with six horse in a line 2f out, suggesting a less than truly run race, with the favourite gradually getting on top on the stands side once they hit the rising ground. Endorsement ran perfectly respectfully in second and I won’t rip up my virtual tickets just yet. I don’t see him as a likely tyoe for the two Leopardstown derby trials, and certainly not a Dante, so a trip to Chester or Lingfield seems the most likely target. |
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These days the Derby is a bit more likely to be won by a horse unexposed as a 2yo, such as Lambourn and Desert Crown, than it is by the likes of Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy. As yet I haven't seen a 2yo performance even close to an average winner, and today's race is probably the last chance that I might. Strictly on figures I have Oxagon marginally ahead of the fav, due to his second behind Puerto Rico, but he was a few pounds below that in the Dewhurst so he doesn't appear as likely to improve further here.
Benvenuto Cellini, the fav, looks the most obvious, coming here after a peak effort last time, with the possibility of more to come. I think he'll still need to improve around half a stone to be a likely Derby winner so won't be backing him at these odds. I have Hawk Mountain half a stone behind his stablemate but he hasn't been fully tested yet and could still be anything. So it's just a watching race, for me, but I hope it throws up a very possible classic winner, as I believe the Dewhurst did. |
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Hawk Mountain is the victor. Epsom fav?
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The positives are that Hawk Mountain was certainly impressively physically and there was a lot to like about the way he relentlessly galloped on when challenged. Considering that it couldn't have been an easy race in that ground he appeared to take it very well in the immediate aftermath. The big negative, in my view, is that even though HM showed improvement today it was still a long way from the level of a possible Derby winner. As often with this yard, the insider market moves told us which horses had worked well, with Benvenuto Cellini performing well below his last effort.
For me, the Derby market has overreacted as badly as it did to BC's Leopardstown win, as I have Hawk Mountain's win today only 1lb above him. They both will need to improve around half a stone to win an average Derby. Maybe one of them will, but I wouldn't want to be backing any of them at this stage. |
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*impressive physically.
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Can't have any WOOTTEN BASSETT offspring over 1m4f at Epsom.
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Pierre Bonnard is the one I like. I was impressed with him at Newmarket coming off a slow pace and as a fine big horse should have plenty of improvement to come next year. Lets see how he gets on here in France.
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looks very good
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A weak Gp1 and don't think it told us anything we didn't already know about PB, as the time performance was even slower than the Gp3 he won at Newmarket. Not the horse's fault, but we won't really know what he's made of until he runs in a faster race. At the moment I have his best performance 11lbs below the level shown by Hawk Mountain yesterday, but still in the could be anything category.
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A phenomenal training performance from the master of Ballydoyle with Puerto Rico.
How he has got him to improve so much run after run in an eight race juvenile campaign is incredible. I know he has untapped potential coming through his hands year after year. But the man is head and shoulders above anyone around. |
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When I read that Pierre Bonnard had won in France I thought that was a nice boost to the Zetland form involving Endorsement.
Didn't find out till I looked at the full result later that Endorsement had also run in the race and been well beaten having made the running.  Hopefully he can come out and run a decent trial next spring but that might be wishful thinking.  |
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That was the cause of my crypic comment above, Uncle.
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*cryptic
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These Wootton Bassett's will make antepost Derbys even harder,!
I do like the favourite and have him at bigger luckily. Also I like Montreal I think he is seathestars |
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Coolmore must be rubbing their hands in glee. Its' very likely the increase to £1m to the winner is their way bound. But, switching The Coronation to Saturday is good; free parking is doubly good; free entry for under-18 is a positive too.
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Well a decent enough return for Endorsement but as in the French race he was simply used as a sacrificial lamb for his stablemates.
Given he had the clear lead any jockey actually wanting to win the race would have come right across to the stands rail given what had played out in the previous races, but instead he was kept up the middle of the track to enable his stablemates to challenge him. Given he was ridden by a useless jockey and not ridden to maximise his chance you could almost say he comes out as the best horse in the race. Whether he ever gets the chance to run on his merits is another matter. I expect he’ll act as pacemaker again for Pierre Bonard in the Derrinstiwn. |
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I can’t read the article Uncle but I’m guessing he might of been reading you
There may well have been a Classic winner lurking in the Ballysax - but it wasn't the winner or beaten favourite Robbie Wilders with his take on the first major Derby trial of the year Hope your treatment was a success. |
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If memory serves I do not think AOB has sent over his No 1 Epsom Derby charges lately for The Dante unless the horse is iffy about its well-being or stamina. The Ballysax and/or The Derrinstown Stud are usually the two key prep races.
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He never runs them in the Dante Impossible they are normally sent somewhere else, last one who won after trialling in Ireland was years back the great sire I think
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I think The Lion In Winter ran at York. Maybe Saxon Warrior too. I'm fairly certain the former did. I'm too lazy to Google. My interest is waning fast.
Tbh I seem to have missed Galileo altogether. I cannot even remember him running or winning The Derby. I'd have been out of the country or unavoidably occupied by something. |
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The Dante is not his preferred trial, Saxon Warrior won the Guineas Impossible, he beat Massar who was third having won the Craven, he won that years Derby.
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The Lion In Winter (TLIW) was good as a 2 yr old. As I believe he was slow to come to hand the following season he was rushed to make The Dante, then Epsom. The Dante and Epsom were complete flops.
AOB and Coolmore were trying to make TLIW into a Derby horse. This season the candidate is Albert Einstein for the 2000G. I believe the result will be the same. |
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Well Derby trial season well and truly upon us and O’Brien doing his usual thing at Chester.
Both winners impressive but with an SP of 2/9 it shows how weak the races were and how desperately weak the UK challenge is. The Lingfield trial looks much more competitive than usual, though they all have to improve hugely to be potential Group 1 winners. The Derrinstown (or whatever they now call it) is the usual O’Brien monopoly but sadly I expect my antepost hope will be the sacrificial lamb again. Entries for the Dante are out tomorrow - hopefully the British trainers can find a few worthy contenders for Epsom. |
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There's been money for Constitution River. He's challenging Pierre Bonnard for 2f at 8.4 here. Pierre Bonnard is 10/11 at Leopardstown this Sunday. Lordon is riding with Moore at Longchamp for the French Guineas.
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Well the Derrinstown went exactly as I expected with Endorsement against ridden vigorously to get the lead then trying to set the race up for Pierre Bonnard. I was quite happy that the Joseph O’Brien horse swooped late to beat the pair of them.
Despite again not being ridden to best advantage, and having a third rate jockey on board, Endorsement was only beaten a short head and a neck. However judging from the comments it seems he won’t be given a chance at Epsom and will presumably go to Ascot for the King Edward or Queens Vase before doing pace maker duties in the Irish Derby. |
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Hi chaps, can I ask people's opinions of P Bonnards last 2 runs please.
Got on him last season, thought I'd seen something there, but a little disappointed thus far. |
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There was something very lately in print where O'Brien said he would run 8 as a trainer, but it was commercially down to the lads what turned up. I enjoyed hearing the trainer's perspective from O'Brien for a change it isn't obvious. Plus many times I'll have a successful book on the O'Brien's Derby horses and wouldn't care him throwing them all in
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Top man and top trainer is Mr AOB.
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Re: Pierre Bonnard
Anyone but AOB can be happy with his last couple of runs this season. The only hope is he turns up, and anything else is a bonus - win or lose. |
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What's the matter with pundits? Some are still trying to sell Pierre Bonnard at 12/1 (a much bigger price but for AOB) despite 2 below par performances. The pundits were so quick and definitive to dismiss City Of Troy at Epsom after his failure at Newmarket. I think Pierre Bonnard is still being assessed on his 2yr old form.
Has Mr Blake received an offer for his beloved Epsom Derby horse, James J Braddock? Does the horse has a good pedogree? |
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ITEM is heading this way. Will AOB direct Constitution River too as a result?
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Been backing Bay Of Brilliance (ave odds 22) can see him running well if he shows.After Lingfield
it showed he gets the trip & Epsom itself shouldn't be a problem.You'd hope he will improve for his seasonal bow aswell.I'd like to think he will reverse the form with Maltese Cross at least. Some books have that @ 8/1 where he's 16/1.Could be wide of the mark here but wasn't overly taken by Item in the Dante. I was more impressed with Constitution River than him aswell as the Vase Wnr.Will he run though? If he does think he'll be the best of Ballydoyle's. GL ALL |
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Constitution River showed a good turn of foot at the business end over 10f similarly, Roaring Lion. The latter did not stay the extra 2f at Epsom.
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The recent money for Con River has been vindicated. Con River is into fav for this.
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