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2026 Epsom Derby Thread
2026 Epsom Derby Thread
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AOB was oblivious about the money for Con River. The plan is he's more likely to go to France, at the moment. Charming!
When is the last dec for the French and English Derby? |
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you couldnt make it up, unbelvable ,
Aidan O'Brien said the French Derby remains more likely for Constitution River, but added 'maybe the lads changed their mind. I haven't heard yet, but maybe they have' The market for the Betfred Derby was in upheaval on Sunday after a big move for Constitution River propelled him to the head of the betting, only for his trainer Aidan O'Brien to be non-committal about going to Epsom, saying "the vibes" he had been getting was preference for a trip to France. Paddy Power were among the bookmakers to take evasive action on Sunday morning, with the impressive Dee Stakes winner cut into 5-2 favourite (from 9-2) for the Epsom Classic on Saturday week. The son of Wootton Bassett had been 6-4 with the same firm for next Sunday's Prix du Jockey Club, but was pushed out to 5-1 for the French Classic. Stablemate Benvenuto Cellini's odds headed in the opposite direction for each race. However, O'Brien's comments prompted a quick reversal. Constitution River was pushed back out to a best-priced 7-2 for the Derby, and was made a strong favourite again for the French version, with Benvenuto Cellini a general 3-1 shot for Epsom. Betfred Derby latest betting Betfred: 3 Benvenuto Cellini, 7-2 Constitution River, 4 Item, 8 Maltese Cross, 10 Pierre Bonnard, 14 James J Braddock, 16 Bay Of Brilliance, 20 bar. Speaking at the Curragh on Sunday afternoon, O'Brien said his understanding was that connections were still preferring the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly for Constitution River, but said plans "could change". O'Brien said: "I thought everyone was leaning towards the French Derby [for Constitution River], but I didn't hear about that [the market move for Epsom]. Those are the vibes I was getting. "The plan was for Constitution River to go to the French Derby with Hawk Mountain and Montreal. "Then Benvenuto Cellini and Pierre Bonnard are pencilled in for Epsom, with maybe the horse who was second in the Dante [Action]. That could all change, but that's the way we're thinking at the moment." Half an hour later, following the win of Great Barrier Reef, the topic of Constitution River's target re-emerged. O'Brien added: "I thought he was going to France, but maybe the lads changed their mind. I haven't heard yet, but maybe they have." O'Brien had indicated a similar plan at a press morning on May 11. Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield said on Sunday: “Our traders have been left scratching their heads after originally making Constitution River favourite this morning following sustained support, but then Aidan O'Brien’s statement has meant Benvenuto Cellini is now back at the front of the market, with Constitution River joint-second favourite. Aidan did add ‘that could all change’.” Constitution River earned a Racing Post Rating of 119 for that dominant seven-length win in the Dee, a pound better than Item achieved when successful in the Dante at York. His Chester form received a significant boost on Saturday when Golden Story, who was almost ten lengths behind Constitution River that day, won the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood. Speaking at that press morning at Ballydoyle this month, O'Brien made clear how highly he regards him, saying: "Constitution River went to Chester as we knew he could be an Epsom or a French Derby horse. We were happy that it was a mile and a quarter, in case he was going to go to France. "The only thing is that, if he is going to France, he's gone only left-handed. But we felt he looked very different going through all his work and looked very good last year. We were hoping, and expecting, to see that at Chester. "He's one of these mile-and-a-quarter horses who could get a mile and a half, but you couldn't be sure. If you're riding him over a mile and a half, you'd be riding him patiently. He has a lot of speed and class." A headache for Ryan Moore? O'Brien has trained the winner of the Derby 11 times, including the last three years, but his dominant hand in this year's race could pose a difficult question for Ryan Moore. Moore, a four-time winner of the Derby courtesy of Workforce (2010), Ruler Of The World (2013), Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy (2024), was not on last year's winner Lambourn, instead partnering Delacroix. He was on both Constitution River and Benvenuto Cellini at Chester, and O'Brien indicated this month that he would have a difficult decision to make if they both showed up at Epsom. O'Brien said: "Ryan would have to find it hard to get off Benvenuto Cellini, but I'd imagine if Constitution River went, he could get off him. It definitely wouldn't be a given [that he'd ride Benvenuto Cellini in that scenario]; Ryan would think a lot about that." Opinion: should it be Chantilly or Epsom with Constitution River? By Maddy Playle We want to see the best horses in the best races and, as a British-based racing fan, I would love to see Constitution River run in the Derby. As well as the glowing feedback from Ryan Moore after the Dee Stakes at Chester, the murmurs suggest he is at the head of the Ballydoyle pecking order. If so, it would be a shame if he did not line up at Epsom. The issue is Aidan O’Brien could probably win the Derby even in his absence, as Benvenuto Cellini has obvious claims and history would tell us not to underestimate Pierre Bonnard or Action either. Coolmore are in the business of making stallions and if that is their overriding priority then do not be surprised if they opt for their original plan of the Prix du Jockey Club. The race’s shorter trip could make Constitution River a more attractive prospect in the modern stud market. Heading to France would ask fewer questions of his stamina. His sire Wootton Bassett has got stayers, and he has the top middle-distance performers Wonderful Tonight and Heartache Tonight in his pedigree, but he looked full of speed last time and a mile and a half may not be his optimum distance. Selfishly, I hope Constitution River runs at Epsom. But the logical part of me thinks Chantilly makes more sense. Read more: 'It wouldn't be a given who Ryan would ride' - Aidan O'Brien nominates his main Derby contenders as big Constitution River decision awaits Would Constitution River and Diamond Necklace stay a mile and a half based on their pedigrees? The Derby is next for Benvenuto Cellini - but I've never been more certain he is your 2026 Breeders' Cup Turf winner |
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The first stage of forfeits is in 15 mins, I don’t expect the River to be pulled if he will be at this stage.
They’ll keep everyone waiting more likely. |
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22 left in
River still there with Hawk Mountain |
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I don’t see that he has to run both in it to win the race looking at the opposition.
He has a line to those from the French 2000 Guineas, Hawk Mountain has the Speed to win over 1m 1f and has won over 1m at 2. Soumi said he rode him forwards last time to make sure that he didn’t get done for one with more toe such as the runner up Lord Clover who was supposedly Graffards Jockey Club horse if you take his stable tour comments at face value. Why run your best against a Group 1 winner, damage his stud value, who’s the first foreign horse to win a key trail the Prix Quiche?  |
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Hawk Mountain
Causeway Flushing Meadows Christmas Day Montreal Dorset Endorsement Constitution River Are AOB’s entries. Graffard has the once raced Daryzan Hankelow, Komorembi & Seagul come from the French 2000 As well as Elastic for the Wertheimers Perhaps the most intriguing horse is the German horse of the year Gostam (unbeaten) beat Commsnders Intent last year 2L over 7f |
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I think Con River will be France bound if everything is good with Ben and Pierre. Con River could then go for the Irish version post France, if successful. And, Ben and / or Pierre could be aimed at The King George. The Arc is a possibility for the vanquish.
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You might be right, but they were never going to leave the two that are deffo Epsom bound in the PDJC.
I can’t help but remember Ben was behind Hawk Mountain as a two year old, you can blame the ground but we have a fav for the Derby who hasn’t his CV. It’s uninspiring and makes no sense to down his career, whereas both Ben and Pierre could take in the Irish Derby. Can’t see River going there the Irish Derby would do nothing for him, the Eclipse after Epsom or PDJC for him. |
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So Benvenuto Cellini is NOT entered for the French Derby .
Why is that do we suppose? Something to do with the fact his pedigree shouts 12f possibly? Constitution Rivers pedigree shouts 10f and he is entered. Conclusion? |
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Ben will go to Epsom similarly, Pierre. Both need every metre of the trip it seems. The (external) unknown would be Item. Imagine Item doing both Ben and Pierre for acceleration at the business end. AOB and Coolmore will be beside themselves given the prestige and value attached to the Derby winner.
Both Con River and Hawk may not be needed for France. I think either is sufficiently qualified to win on its own. But, two is almost a given, I'd think. No supp is needed, and the horses need to run somewhere, maybe with The Eclipse as the next target. I'm not bothered anymore. I've played, only a small wager. I'm already into Royal Ascot with 3 races in mind eg Queen Anne, Coronation and SJP. |
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River would get 12f no problem
It’s an extended 10f at Chester and Ryan Moore described it to Chapman as being like piece of work. They prolong the narrative by taking out Ben today and leave River in. Why would they leave in a certain stayer who needed a strong gallop? By removing him it still leaves doubt and tilts the pendulum in his favour. I Slow horses don’t win the PDJC, Hawk Mountain a Group 1 winner was sent as marker? No I can’t see that, AOB never targets those trials normally. Today the horse he beat there at Chantilly (Lord Clover) avoids him by going for the German 2000 guineas. Stepping up in trip will only benefit Hawk Mountain and possibly even Constitution River. The others aren’t sexy, NH stallions is the most they can be, so hoping he shows because the Derby looks terrible without him. |
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*- I
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If Con River at 12f is no problemo perhaps he'd take in the Irish version, if missing Epsom and going to France instead. I think a Derby win even if it's the Irish version will enhance the horse's stallion fee in the shed.
But, as I've said earlier I'm past caring given the miniscule amount I'm betting these days. |
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Of course you and Sandown could be right.
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I helped myself to a few bucks for Ben at 7 --> 8 yesterday. Then relinquished the same amount at 5. I'm merely playing them (inside info scums) at their own game.
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 Nice one impossible! Agree with your description. |
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Have had a small wager on the Braddock horse , rt handed stick really woke him up , hopefully more to come .
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Wootton Bassett has zero 3‑year‑old runners over 12f, and zero runners in the traditional 12f Derby trials.
His best Derby‑trial performer was Incarville, who won a 10.5f French Oaks prep. This is consistent with his profile as a sire of milers and 10f horses, not stayers. River would get 12f no problem Not saying you are wrong Delashay but I wouldn't be confident that you are correct |
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Hi Sandown I’m aware of that about his sire, so on the flip side imagine they had one that could? He’d be gold.
There aren’t that many 12f derby trials, they were never going to run him straight over 12f first time out. On class alone he beats this lot. I posted lots about this on the main thread stupidly as it just gets looked past. Impossible pointed out and reminded me of the breeding premium that he’s eligible for should he run and win in France, that’s more a reason to go there than trip for me. I’d said that he’d reminded me very much of Whirl and she stayed fine in the Oaks. |
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Delashay • May 11, 2026 6:39 PM BST
With the news that AOB is suggesting that Constitution River will go to Chantilly I looked back at the record of past Dee Stakes winners and where they ran next. This year there is no Camelot or Rodin, or Australia who is the outright leading light for the Derby ahead of the winner. 2005 Gypsy King Kieren Fallon 2:16.47 - 5th @ 7/2 behind Motivator, Dubawi 3rd! 2007 Admiralofthefleet Michael Kinane 2:09.82 - 10th @ 14/1 to Authorized 2012 Astrology Joseph O'Brien 2:21.57 - 3rd to Camelot @ 13/2 2013 Magician Ryan Moore 2:12.96 - won the Irish 2000 Guineas @ 10/3 then last in SJP @ DawnAp 2014 Kingfisher Joseph O'Brien Aidan O'Brien 2:20.49 - 10th @ 50/1 2017 Cliffs of Moher Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:10.85 - 2nd @ 5/1 to 40/1 Wings Of Eagles 2018 Rostropovich Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.33 - 9th to Study of Man @13/2 PDJC, then 2nd 1m4f 2019 Circus Maximus Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:16.51 - 6th @ 10/1 Antony Van **** 13/2 no race 2020 [c] 2022 Star of India Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.25 - 13th @ 16/1 to Desert Crown 2023 San Antonio Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:19.90 - 10th @ 18/1 to Augusta Rodin 2024 Capulet Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:10.67 - never ran again 2025 Mount Kilimanjaro Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.89 - next ran in the Great Voltigeur 2026 Constitution River Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:06.54 - ??? In bold are the winners of the Dee Stakes who went on to run at Ascot. Only ONE went to the PDJC |
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Delashay • May 11, 2026 6:56 PM BST
The year that Rostropovich went to the PDJC 2018 AOB was represented by Saxon Warrior 4/5f @Epsom and the Chantilly race came the day after. |
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There’s NO odds shot or chosen one for the stable this year.
History shows that they’ve ended up at Epsom as you can see. Chester is the trial ground for Epsom. The Cocked Hat on Saturday franked both runners form from Chester. |
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Delashay
Golden Shot has a 3lb higher rating for winning at Goodwood so not adding anything much to CR who doesn't need any franking really. CR looked impressive and the figures were excellent. If BC was not around or missed the race at Epsom for some fitness problem than I think CR would be re-directed for sure. Coolmore have to find a good replacement for Wootton Basset at stud . An Epsom Derby win for either would be their best outcome. I'm sure that assessment will determine who goes where. |
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Delashay • May 12, 2026 10:10 AM BST
We’ll see impossible, the past record of Dee Stakes winners is uninspiring but as I showed only one went to the Jockey Club in 2018 when Saxon Warrior was 4/5f for Epsom. Ben is no short priced fav like him. Mr Colonelwho Ben beat at Chester albeit over a different trip but has a line to Bonnard : 06May26 Chs C13yG3 82K 1m4½f Gd 9-2 3/5 btn 6L Benvenuto Cellini 11Oct25 Nmk row C12yG3 37K 1m2f GF 9-4 p1 5/8 btn 4¾L Pierre Bonnard That’s not the form of a Derby winner in either race to me. |
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I mentioned the form franking because the press were talking about it yesterday and it was one sided reporting, failing to say that the Godolphin colts was beaten in the Vase with Ben carrying a penalty.
He didn’t handle Chester however as Hoiles was saying throughout commentary. |
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Trainers are creatures of habit and I look at what they do over what they say. It’s a brave person who’s laying him on the reports that France IS the race for him.
That being the case, no point in running Hawk Mountain or Montreal who’ve both prepped there. Just run the one colt, say what you’ll do without all the bolaaaax and go try and win it for the 3rd time! |
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Saxon Warrior won The Guineas courtesy of his stablemates who were riding shotgun for him. Hence his ridiculous shortie price here. And, just in case Pierre chooses to recapture his 2 yr old form at Epsom a price of 13 here could be enterprising and rewarding for his loyal supporters.
I agree with 'Sandown'. Only a misfortune with Ben would Con River be running here. |
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19 left in the Jockey Club
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Delashay • May 25, 2026 10:57 AM BST
Hawk Mountain Causeway - scratched Flushing Meadows Christmas Day - scratched Montreal Dorset Endorsement Constitution River |
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Leaves in six!
If he takes 3 out and runs what’s been suggested it leaves a 16 runner field if the others stand their ground. Draw is a gamble. |
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Re Wootton Bassett.
Sired King Of Steel who was just done by Auguste Rodin @ Epsom. There was 4-5Ls back to the 3RD. |
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17/2 Constitution River now atm on here.
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Who moved the market on CR Sunday morning I wonder? How much did PP take or not take?
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In the old days when the known "faces" put bets on horses the bookies would retreat to their bunkers for restitution and coffee.
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People are still backing in trickles
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17/2 is hardly a drift compared to Gstaad who went right out before the Guineas when AOB said he might go France and PRico Newmarket
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After the fiasco with Fairy Godmother, Bedtime Story and Lake Victoria to name three the statements of AOB and reports of the racing journos esp at the Racing Post carry little weight with me.
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cons river was backed at 3.85 sun morning
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Agree Impossible and John yes he went into favouritism
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He’s been left in and 19 remain
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