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penzance
14 Aug 24 22:05
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Date Joined: 26 Feb 04
| Topic/replies: 19,088 | Blogger: penzance's blog
Ambiente Friendly around 8/1 with the books for this & 12s on here.
Maybe his stamina was found wanting in the Irish Derby when btn just
over 1L when 3RD.Travelled well for a long way but only just held the 4TH
in that late on.Went well for a long way in the Derby aswell when rnr/up.
Sure that connections said they would avoid City Of Troy this season but
they're taking in on again in this.Good pace over this trip could see him
improve a bit more & I see him going close here,should at least make the
frame anyway.With Calandagan,the Japanese rnr, Alflaila & Bluestocking
thinking about running this should be a cracker.
   GL ALL

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Replies: 133
By:
elisjohn
When: 14 Aug 24 22:30
Economics going for a french race on thursday, god sake should be in the juddmonte
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 15 Aug 24 15:48
Not had run since the Dante.
I wouldn't pitch him in the International either.
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 16 Aug 24 16:23
Bluestocking going to the Yorkshire oaks I think ?

Also White Birch waiting for the Irish Champion
By:
elisjohn
When: 16 Aug 24 21:22
i think white birch told not to run versus obriens super horses id say
By:
penzance
When: 16 Aug 24 22:13
Really!
By:
unclepuncle
When: 17 Aug 24 11:41
Looks like being a belter even without White Birch and Economics.

I hope Docklands takes his chance but expect they will bottle it and go for the Strensall.
By:
A_T
When: 17 Aug 24 17:38
a very weak race - no group 1 winners apart from ballydoyle horses

for all the talk of travers stakes/breeders cup classic city of troy looks to be taking the australia/st marks basilica path
By:
unclepuncle
When: 19 Aug 24 11:13
Alflaila Jim Crowley
Docklands Hayley Turner
Durezza Christophe Lemaire
Hans Andersen TBC
Israr William Buick
Maljoom Tom Marquand
Royal Rhyme Clifford Lee
Zarakem Maxime Guyon
Bluestocking Rossa Ryan
Ambiente Friendly Robert Havlin
Calandagan Stephane Pasquier
City of Troy TBC
Ghostwriter Richard Kingscote

12 Declared
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 19 Aug 24 21:01
I think it's a great race. Great for betting anyway.
By:
elisjohn
When: 20 Aug 24 07:10
much more interesting now with bluestocking going for this, well done them
By:
unclepuncle
When: 20 Aug 24 07:20
It's actually 13 declared.

Definitely the best race of the season and group d should be perfect so while COT is the most likely winner I have to look for some value.

I had a specualtive punt on Docklands at 66/1 antepost and backed Zarakem at 24 on here on Sunday evening. The latter still looks the value to me with his form tie in with Horizon Dor making him very solid.

I'm not keen on Bluestocking at the trip against the boys, Calandagan beat trees at Ascot so I'm not sure he is as good as he looked that day, Alfalfa has a great record at the track but seems to struggle to get competitive at this level. Likewise with Ghostwriter.

Ambiente Friendly has a solid chance but just seems a bit soft even allowing for his stamina ebbing away in the two Derby runs.

Maljoom would be interesting if he stays but I have my doubts on that front.

Israr is the other one I might do as a back to lay - he cantered round on the steel at Ascot and while I doubt he can win he could trade in single figures approaching the 2f pole.
By:
A_T
When: 20 Aug 24 11:12
much more interesting now with bluestocking going for this, well done them

yes good that there is G1 winner taking part other than the favourite
By:
johnnyrant
When: 20 Aug 24 14:20
A rarity during the Flat season these days - a competitive looking G1. Just a shame Passenger got injured - I think he would have danced home as long as going good or quicker.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Aug 24 16:16
A decent size field, competitive event and an interesting betting race, but I agree with A_T, regarding Gp1 quality this is a poor renewal. I still believe that COT's Dewhurst win was vastly overrated, but it's the only piece of form on offer that I reckon is (just about) up to Gp1 winning standard. However, this season, despite winning twice, he hasn't quite performed at the same level. For me, this year's Derby was crap, and even though he won decisively I have him 4lbs lower than the Dewhurst. His Eclipse win was generally regarded as well below his Derby win but I have it just 1lb lower. If he can return to his Dewhurst best I don't see anything in this field beating him on these terms. Even if he only runs to the same standard he's been running to this year he can win, but I have enough doubts about him that I can easily refuse to take this kind of price.

I said that Charyn's Queen Anne was the fastest I've seen by any older horse this year, so it follows that Docklands must've put up a good performance in second. On his form before that I'd say he's fairly priced, but on that one piece of form he's massively overpriced. The question is whether he has improved into a horse that can do it again, or if it was a one off instance of him running the race of his life. He was held up early on in rear off a very fast pace, and over the years I've found that kind of setup on many occasions where horses ran well above their usual level. On the other hand he did travel easily that day and quickened up really well at the business end, rather than just plodding on past beaten runners. The other unknown is whether he'll be as good over this extra distance. All doubts considered I have backed him.

The only other runner that appeals to me is Calandagan. I have his Ascot win only 1lb below COT's Derby win and think unless COT finds his Dewhurst level then the French runner is capable of giving COT a race. I'll be backing him as well.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Aug 24 18:34
I'd like to see Hayley win this on Docklands; I was very near to Docklands in London on Saturday. If so it will be a massive payday for her. Unless City Of Troy is 2/1 or more anything less is not a betting proposition given the good to firm ground, and big field.

A poor renewal nonetheless.
By:
werbie
When: 20 Aug 24 19:37
We'll if the going wasn't quick at the curragh when COT won then I don't know what it was. Hit the line hard and Ryan had a job to pull him up.
Calandagan beat some handicappers to win at Ascot and previously won a couple of races on desperate ground. Could be an improver but really not sure why he is 2nd fav? 
I think Bluestocking and Zarakem are the 2 potential dangers.


There have been some generous prices about COT this season, I'm amazed he isn't odds on for this. I think we'll see the real deal tomorrowExcited
By:
elisjohn
When: 20 Aug 24 20:15
imp, agree it is a poor renewal but lets be honest i cannot recall a superb renewal of this race , when has there been   3 or 4 really good  horses against each other, perhaps frankel v st nicholas and the godolphin colt could be the best of later years, but i enjoyed commanche run v oh so sharp, when piggott the cat played with cauthen the mouse that day. At least this is a competitive race and lets see how good the fav is, ( if he runs ). Bluestocking snip 1st3 for me.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Aug 24 20:43
There have been many renewals where we've had much better older horses on display. Even in the last 4 years, Mostahdaf, Baaeed, Mishriff and Ghaiyyath had all shown better form (genuine Gp1 ability) than this lot going into the race.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Aug 24 21:07
I hope City Of Troy wins emphatically against these lot.
By:
elisjohn
When: 20 Aug 24 21:08
unbelievable, but just shows that racing was proper then  , dr devious derby winner v rodrigo 2,000 winner same trainer same owner i think running against each other
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 20 Aug 24 21:19
They sold Dr Devious as a two year old so it was different owners.
By:
elisjohn
When: 21 Aug 24 05:49
thx for that
By:
elisjohn
When: 21 Aug 24 06:11
whaw that matchmaker international was a superb quality race, id actually forgotten how great it was, Kooyonga fav, all at sea, ruby tiger, terimon, rodrigo , and d devious, plus few other decent horse . Its on you tube cracking race.
By:
elisjohn
When: 21 Aug 24 06:14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvdHKcTD-sE.                here it is
By:
.Marksman.
When: 21 Aug 24 09:42
As long as you accept the excuses made for City of Troy in the Guineas his form looks clearly the best.  He wasn't able to impress in the Eclipse on the soft ground, but still beat Al Riffa who next time won a German Group 1 by 5 lengths.
Blue Stocking doesn't look good enough.  The form of her wins has been let down and she was still well beaten by Goliath last time.
Ambient Friendly looks held on Derby running.
It's hard to enthuse about Alflaila who has twice been beaten by the unreliable August Rodin.

City of Troy is the selection.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 21 Aug 24 13:09
I agree with many that COT is the class horse and most likely winner,  but I'm not interested at the price.

I think the long straight should suit Zarakem, so had an e/w bet on him.

Alflaila with his course form is also of interest for a small cover bet.

Good luck all.
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 21 Aug 24 15:43
Perfect ride there. Calandagan is a very nice horse too, a shame he has been gelded and can't run in the Arc.
By:
A_T
When: 21 Aug 24 15:45
great run from the favourite - they've got to consider the arc surely
By:
penzance
When: 21 Aug 24 15:46
Class act.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Aug 24 16:35
I make that COT's best performance of the year, clearly better than the Derby, and right up to his 2yo best (actually 1lb lower than the Dewhurst but can't quibble about 1lb). He did it very well and there may be even more in the tank. However, back to his best he only did what would be expected against a bunch of largely Gp3 older horses conceding weight. One of my bets, Calandagan, ran a fine race to get within a length. I have him up 2lbs from Ascot, but he's just not quite a proper Gp1 3yo. So, a solid winning performance but, for me, it was more Roaring Lion than Frankel Wink
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 21 Aug 24 16:50
Not managed to watch any racing yet, but see the times are quick.
Is there a tail wind or just fast ground?
By:
A_T
When: 21 Aug 24 17:36
combination of the two
By:
Try My Best
When: 22 Aug 24 00:39
Back at the hotel now from the best days racing I’ve had in the last 10 years. COT all class and looked a million in the paddock. Try going racing lads you might pick up a few things. Give it a rest Figgass. He’s not a proper group 1 horse? You are an ignoramous of the highest degree and doesn’t matter what this horse does you will always crab him coz you have been proved wrong you dipstick. All hype I think Aiden questioned. No we were just telling the truth. Aidan and the Ballydoyle boys all class and have another one to look forward to in The Lion of Winter who smashed the track record along with COT.
By:
kincsem
When: 22 Aug 24 08:54
Try My Best
That is a gold medal to you for aftertiming.
You are a Ballydoyle fan boy, shouting the odds when they win.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 22 Aug 24 09:00
"We" were just telling the truth Laugh
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Aug 24 09:08
You are a Ballydoyle fan boy, shouting the odds when they win

Noticeably absent pre-race. Predictably absent when they're stuffed Grin
By:
A_T
When: 23 Aug 24 11:40
like a teenage girl drooling over a boy-band
By:
Sandown
When: 27 Aug 24 12:04
Calandagan, ran a fine race to get within a length. I have him up 2lbs from Ascot, but he's just not quite a proper Gp1 3yo. So, a solid winning performance but, for me, it was more Roaring Lion than Frankel

Yet. He might well become a  G1 winner Figgis because of the improvement that he showed. It was a better run over the 10.3f than the 12f at Ascot but I wouldn't draw the conclusion that it was the trip that brought about the improvement (where he also improved). On ratings, not much between him and COT.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 24 12:27
He might well become a  G1 winner Figgis because of the improvement that he showed. It was a better run over the 10.3f than the 12f at Ascot but I wouldn't draw the conclusion that it was the trip that brought about the improvement

Yes of course. I agree that it wasn't the trip that made the difference. Maybe he just improved with maturity and can do so again. Personally, I think it was just due to him being fully extended at York and given a harder race.

On ratings, not much between him and COT

Yes, we're dealing with fine margins here, especially when it comes to middle distance 3yos. The difference between a solid Gp2 performer and a Gp1 winner may only be 2 or 3 pounds. A pity COT won't be going to Leopardstown, where it looks like he probably would've faced real Gp1 older opposition for the first time.
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