yes marksman andre fabre  said quote i fancy the mare and seemed to be hinting he didnt think there was much between sosie and mds he sorta said he  couldnt split them ,obviously much can happen in the race and you need a bit of luck as well but its positive comments like that you want to hear going into the race,  well not long to go now  and a few more could be supplemented should be a largish field ,good luck all .

What's the maximum field size,this year?

Thanks Foyle, but I meant what's the maximum they allow? Betfair are still holding money back against balloted runners at the moment.

24 is max so no horses will be balloted out.

And thanks btw

If LDV was trained by Fabre or AOB he would be clear favourite after these comments especially if the jockey was Soumillon or Moore. But it is what it is and it does mean he is trading at a more backable price. LDV's win at Longchamp on May 5 was where he caught my eye and stopwatch so the course holds no worries, nor does the ground. Just needs a good draw now but the field size may not be an issue.

The ground at PARISLONGCHAMP is officially VERY SOFT (3.9) (1st October 2024).

source: https://irbracing.com/french-ground-conditions/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGX9k74dtpA

For those interested in LDV here is a video of the horse's last gallop before the Prix Niel. The most informative bit is the trainer saying he was 80% fit...before the race. If so, his performance in the Prix Niel was only to be expected. Hopefully, we will see a much improved horse on Sunday.

Final decs at 9.30am tomorrow. The draw is at about 10am. Good luck!

no more rain till sunday according to paris forcast !

In this years Arc there are no standout stars dominating the race. No Enables, or Zarkavas, Peintre Celebres,& Sea The Stars. Horses trading at 4.0 or less.

This year we have 3 horses at between 5.5 and 7.0,another 2 under 11.5.They are around 70% of the market. An open race, on paper.
All need to improve to achieve even an average rating for a  winner of this race. All have cases. So, how to play such a race?

Significant improvement usually is to be found with lightly raced horses .. These are LDV (4 runs) Sorsie  (6) Shin Emperor (7) , Los Angeles (7), so these 4 are the ones I am  concentrating on this year. The first 4 in the market. They all have a case but come with risks.

Of the 4, LDV has the most potential for improvement. He also has a good  win over Sorsie in the French Derby and there are excuses for his last run, which considering he was only 80% fit, and it was a trial, I am prepared to overlook.

Sorsie is trained by Fabre, is proven at 12f and is progressive. The doubt is the ground as he would prefer faster ground.

Shin Emperor and Los Angeles ran to similar ratings in the Irish Champion. The Japanese horse is not at all proven on soft ground and doesn’t win often, whilst Los Angeles has put up the same rating for his last 3 runs.

Therefore, I will be  backing both LDV and Sorsie to win, but HDV will be my largest stake. As a value bet at a bigger price I will have something on Delius EW as he is also lightly raced, progressive and ties in with Sorsie. Trained by Roget who masterfully prepared Ace Impact last year.

Watched the trials again a few times & keep coming back to Bluestocking.
This season she's only been behind 4 horses,3 of which,City Of Troy,Goliath
& Calandagan would be very high up in the mkt for this.That was also over the
extended 10Fs on G/F,I think she's better suited to this trip with  cut in the
ground.After looking in a bit of trouble in the Vermeille she won that more
comfortably than the  margin suggests.No reason the the 2ND,Aventure, will reverse
that to me.I can't see the Neil form being over turned either,Sosie was much the
best in that,Look De Vega had an easy enough lead & was a bit disappointing.
Bluestocking (3) also has a decent draw.
The unbeaten rnr this season,Mqse De Sevigne,form looks good on paper but she hasn't
beat much if you go through her races.She was only just in front of Maxux when she
won LTO,that was hammered by Bluestocking in her previous start.Sunday's her 1ST go
over this trip & she could improve for it,she'll have to aswell.
Bluestocking's connections have paid a fair few quid to put her in this & must think
they have a good cahnce of recouping that.
Around the 10-11/1 mark with the books aswell as on here atm.
   GL ALL

PS
On the more bullish side, I have them as a 52%  combined chance but for staking purposes I am more cautious.

I agree with a lot of what you say, Sandown.
None of these have put up a performance yet to win an average Arc.
I also agree that LDV is the I e with the potential to be the big improver.
I backed Delius and Continuous a few months ago so hoping one of them can scrape a place to cover stakes.
I do not see the angle on the Japanese horse, myself.
He has run on after the race is over in the Japan 2000 guineas,  their Derby and Irish Champion.

pace possibly could come from sevvenas knight a strong stayer

only 7 pound between the top rated and bottom rated on official ratings and  possible anything can win if the cards fall right .

Los Angeles doesn't particularly stand out on form.  But I have now given up laying AOB horses for a whole week and consequently my mental health has improved already, so I am going to make sure that Los Angeles will be green in my book.

I'm fairly certain I came across in an online bookie. I cannot remember for sure where though. It could have been 4-places.

I've over £30 win double Jan Brueghel (5/1) and LDV (7/2). I've lay off some, maybe more tomorrow if the price is right.

When tackling a Gp1 short on really top quality horses, as this one is, it's always tempting to look for a possible improver, something that will produce the kind of performance most of us would like to see. The ones with possible untapped potential look to be the 3yos, Sosie, Look De Vega, and the one who I think has so far shown the best form, Shin Emperor, who is the one I was thinking of backing.

"I haven't seen any top-class three-year-olds, if you put aside City Of Troy, and I think he still has to prove a bit more. Of the others, they are all good but none is top class." The words of Andre Fabre, which I completely agree with.

Sometimes, however, it pays to accept that this may prove to be a below par renewal, and all that's needed to win is a reproduction of the best effort seen already. Earlier this year I couldn't have had Al Riffa on my mind as a possible Arc winner. Nevertheless, if approaching this year's Arc with no preconceptions he is my highest rated going into the race. On these wfa terms I have him 3lbs clear of the Japanese horse. He won the National Stakes as a 2yo in a reasonable time, but more worthy of a Gp2 than Gp1. Then appeared to have difficulties as a 3yo and wasn't seen much. In the Eclipse I had him improving by 5lbs, and he didn't have to run as well to beat some German nags next time.

When a horse shows belated improvement, as he has done this year, it's impossible to say if it'll sustain that form or if it will end as abruptly as it appeared. But I'm sure that if he repeats it he could run to a place in an average Arc, and may just be good enough to win this year if nothing else shows improvement. He's my bet.

Good question, brandy.  It seemed to be chewing up a bit on the inside towards the end of the card, but tomorrow will be on fresh ground next to the rail.  Figgis will know...