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Ballymoss was a 4yr old when he won the Arc.
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mqs de sevigne won again today over 7f group 1 .
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Owner, Baron Ed De Rothschild sounded pretty definite about going to the Arc with MQSE DE SEVIGNE.
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for some unknown reason I described mqs de sevigne as him she is of course a mare the spelling wernt to clever either
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Opera Singer the winner of The Nassau could be this way bound. A 12/1 for this. I think Look De Vega is still my choice.
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havent given up on delius was given a lot to do and the winner looks a good un ,a more positive ride should suit and probably room for some improvement being so lightly raced .
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MQSE DE SEVIGNE runs in the Group 1 Sumbe Prix Jean Romanet (1:33) as a prep for the Arc.
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Does anyone really think Los Angeles is a serious contender for The Arc? I understand he was giving weights in The Voltigeur. To me he's a grinder and lacking the acceleration for this race to win.
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Content just won the Yorkshire Oaks despite pulling very hard for most of the race; the pace was not strong enough for her (apparently). Could she end up here? She's not in the betting (yet).
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on the back of her last run where she scraped home at short odds mqse de sevigne drifted out to 40/1 with bills ,on the face of it a disappointing performance by the mare but that was prob just a prep for the arc and Fabre seemed happy enough saying she always wins narrowly. could be there is plenty more in the locker ,whatever, I have been taking the 40s which seemed great value assuming all is well as the 25s before her last race looked fair to me ,33s bills now and I have been going in at that as well.
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No horse stamped their authority on the race today coming out of the trials.
Thought the Japanese horse ran a fair race yesterday looking like further will suit.Looks wide open atm. |
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Shin Emperor ran similar races in their Guineas (10f) and Derby (12f).
Running on late. But agree he ran a solid trial yesterday. |
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In my opinion none of the runners have put up a performance usually expected of an all age Gp1 winner. I agree with the comments about Shin Emperor. I have his performance at Leopardstown better than anything I've seen from Sosie, Look De Vega, etc.I also agree it appeared that going further would be in his favour. I thought his jockey was a bit erratic, would need to ride with a bit more confidence around Longchamp.. In what looks to be a subpar renewal on paper, it could be the year the Japanese finally win it. Not a bet I'll be having with any great confidence but he's the only one that appeals.
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Look De Vega did look a touch burly in the Prix Niel in comparison to the Jockey Club.
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2 weeks till the arc and the picture looking a bit clearer , the neil threw up a few clues and most of the talk post race was that the look de vega needed the race thast may well be so but fabre and rouget know whats required and would have left a fair bit to work on for the big day .i had some 40/1 ew sosie after the jockey club when fabre said he is the sort that would improve for a step up in trip and would go on improving as the season went on ,the price has gone now and we dont know what the ground will be so he is no value now . look de vega impressive jockey club winner should improve for the neil but so should the winner and 2nd and of the 3 delius could offer value at an ew price but prob better waiting till nearer racetime when bog kick in .al riffa bluestocking both seem to have improved a bit this season but price has collapsed on al riffa after pricewise tipped him ante post and blue stocking needs supplementing .
shin emperor ran a decent race in the irish champion but possible soft/heavy ground would be concern i have also backed delius ante post and the one that interests me most at the prices who i am top heavy on is is mqs de sevigne who can still be backed at 33/1 with the firms a multi group race winner albeit in small fields mainly and she seems to only win by narrow margins shds necks etc ,fabre seems keen and connections are not worried about the step up in trip ,she only just does enough and could have a lot more in the locker than she has shown and who knows she could improve for it ,her narrow wins are probably the reason for her price but has form on good soft /heavy ground and looks the value call to me at this stage . selection mqs de sevigne 33/1 ew . |
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Why do you think soft ground will be a concern for Shin Emperor, Foyles?
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might be a concern ..by my reading he has mainly raced on firmish unless i have read it wrong brandy .might be better or as good on soft but its an unknown
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Will LDV improve more than Sorsie having been off 61 days longer than Fabres horse is a key question?
If he does, and if he can reprise his run at Chantilly where he beat Sorsie by 2L+, then he is a value bet at 8.0. Fabre is a master trainer so we can expect him to improve Sorsie again but he did have only 41 days off after winning the GPdeP so he came into the race a fitter horse than LDV, whilst that horse's trainer admitted afterwards that the horse was much heavier than at Chantilly. There is the argument that LDV can reverse the form. There are other horses of course, to consider, but these two have decent claims. |
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41 days not 61.
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and 64 days off for Sorsie not 41. My apologies. Had a few posting issues.
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Sandown, do you think Sorsie's form is better than that of Shin Emperor?
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Personally I don't believe Look De Vega's PDJC win is anything like as good as I thought immediately after the race. Even allowing for that he was definitely below par last time, which may have been due to lack of fitness, but if I did still rate him and had backed him I'd now be harbouring doubts about him having the stamina for the Arc after his latest effort.
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I think the $64k question about LDV is value, and not ability in comparison to Sosie. For instance his price has doubled from 7/2 to 7/1 because he was "heavy and defeated" in the Prix Niel - he ran accordingly. However, he did beat Sosie in the Jockey Club with a competitive racing weight; had he bypassed the Prix Niel and come straight for this he'd be no bigger than 7/2.
On the other hand anyone with a bet on Sosie - the winner of the Prix Niel - will hope the visibly/perceived lacklustre performance of LDV in the Prix Niel was not solely down to the condition he was carrying. Otherwise, his backers will still have his defeat in the Jockey Club at the back of their mind. And, for the remainder LDV would have been the one to beat here prior to the Prix Niel, and his "defeat" in the Prix Niel had given them added hope. I think if LDV is trained by Fabre or Rouget - multiple winning trainers of this race - his price may not have doubled to 7/1 for sure. I also think Shin Emperor is more likely to finish infront of Los Angeles (LA) again here - he overtook LA just before the finishing line in the Irish Champion Stakes. This time on 6th Oct all will be known. May the best horse win. Goodluck! |
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I agree with you impossible 123 about LDV v Sorsie. We shouldn't forget that LDV went off at 8/13 in the Niel so the horse was clearly expected to beat Sorsie and Delius . I think that Sorsie was fitter on the day and LDV wasn't given a hard race when his chance had gone . We can expect to see a fitter horse on Oct 6 and if he can perform as he did at Chantilly he has a very good chance of reversing the form with both of those who finished in front of him in the Niel.
Figgis. I have reviewed my figures for LDV and I have down-rated him. Certainly at this stage he is no Ace Impact but I believe that he compares well with a number of recent Arc winners. I don't have a worry about the trip for him after looking again at all his runs. As impossible 123 says, it is more about value at this stage and less about which horse has the best winning chance, so I have backed him again at the 8.0. |
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Sandown, well, at least on paper, it looks like he wouldn't have to be as good as Ace Impact to beat this field. LDV still has the potential to prove himself an above average 3yo. I suppose the same could be said for Sosie given his profile, even though I don't fancy him and see his form as weak as Feed The Flame's was going into last year's race. Otherwise, it looks a very weak race.
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I meant above average in Gp1 terms, he's obviously already an above average 3yo.
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Figgis
This years race certainly has the look of a sub-par race. None of top 30 or so in the betting have achieved ratings which when adjusted for WFA and Sex put them in a bracket to-date which might indicates a strong candidate on previous form to win the race.(If I'm wrong, please point them out.) Therefore, either the winner will have to show significant improvement and /or the conditions will help to spring a surprise.Looking at the weather forecst for the next 14 days in Paris, it doen't look as though there will be much in the way of drying weather so I'm guessing that the going will be on the soft side at least, as is normally the case. You asked me for my view on Shin Eemperor. I have a few question marks against the race form at face value because although it was hard fought G1 and the RPRs given were high (Economics 124) the final time was slowish giving a TS of just 101. The finishing sectional of 24.8 for the winner wasn't great which means Im have a question mark . As for the Japanese horse, he looked as though he could go on from that, he is relatively lightly raced but there are doubts that he hasn't raced on anything slower than good. All bar this race have been on good to firm so that is a doubt. I give him a chance but he must improve.On the plus side, he hadnt raced since May so you would think he should improve for that run. |
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My two for this are LDV and Shin Emperor. Personally, these are the two most viable candidates to win. Both have the least questionable potential and most chances in comparison to the rest including Sosie. Any other winner will almost certainly render this renewal as mediocre and subpar, sadly.
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a TS of just 101
The low Tospeed figure is just a limitation of the method employed. All the other races on the card would need to be held down in order to accommodate the fast time recorded by Dance Night Andday in the handicap. |
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impossible 123
Given that there isn't one horse with even an average rating to-date to win an average Arc, the 2 horses you mentioned (LDV and Shin Emperor) do have the potential to improve as you say,(allowing for the ground doubt with the Japanese horse.) I would also have to seriously consider Sosie (trainer factor) and Las Vegas (trainer factor) if the latter runs. They will be the horses I will concentrate on. ( NB Bluestocking ran well in winning but she has some ground to make up on ratings. ) |
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Figgis
That Dance Night Andday rating may be suspect because they play around with the 7f distance. The same race last year was offically over 7.33f and in June it was 7.27f and 7.21f. Might that explain why the 10f race allowance was affected if they tried to use one GA for the 7f and 10f races? |
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Sandown, yes that could be the reason, although the first race on the card wasn't out of whack like that race was. I used to think that the more races on a card it would be easier to analyse the times, but over the years I've learned that it isn't necessarily so. The longer a meeting lasts then the more chance of wind changes, etc. Personally, at the very least, I would exclude that race from any attempt at coming up with an allowance for the other races. Admittedly this makes the job more subjective, but, in my view, allowing all the other time performances to be tied down by that one race is obviously wrong.
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attheracesnews ande fabre gives his take on his arc principles
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My a.p bet this year is 100/1 Haya Zark. The owner has stated that he runs here as he also has an entry in the Prix Dollar.
Lots of rain around in Paris and no heat, the current penetrometer reading is 4.4 which is very soft and I can't see it getting a lot quicker. Haya Zark needs at least 3.8 or higher for best performance. They are hopeful of a place in these conditions. He's a better horse than last year when down the field, and he had a nice come back in a 10f trial a few weeks ago. |
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good luck smokey my kind of price and why not , my thoughts further down the thread ground should be soft which wont hinder my 3 ,have been going in on the mare almost everyday at all rates down from 40s to 25s will keep going in at the 25s ........god knows how much i have put on in around half a dozen accounts and 2 shops dont want to look tbh ,often go in like a bull in a china shop when i fancy one which is fine if one dart happens to hit the target .
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I understand Shin Emperor has only run on GF going in Tokyo but he seemed to handle Good going at Leopardstown very well. He also finished best. Maybe the impending much softer going at Longchamp next weekend may not be such a hindrance as some pundits are envisaging. I believe the offsprings of Siyouni (sire) have run well on soft going in the past.
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there is a horse that has won 5 group 1s trained by a master who holds the record for arc wins also trains the fav and says he fancys the mare , one is 4/1 the other 25/1 this horse has never run over 12f but he says he thinks she will lmprove for the step up in trip he also says she loves soft ground ...........hmn .......i woke up a few months back and smelt the coffee !
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Just over a week to go for the most premier open race of the Flat season in the world. I hope all the principals turn up possibly even with a maximum field.
Good luck all! |
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Fabre confident Sevigne can sparkle over Arc trip
Yes Foyles, that headline on the ATR website fills you with confidence regarding MQSE DE SEVIGNE. I noted earlier on this thread that owner, Baron Ed De Rothschild was targeting the Arc. |
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I started this thread saying that it was good news that Auguste Rodin was being kept in training with the possibility of running in the Arc. But since then I have formed the opinion that he is not to be trusted and, if he runs, I will make sure he is the only red in my book. The only mitigating circumstance that I can think of to explain his shocking runs which seem to occur randomly inbetween wins is that he doesn't handle any sort of soft ground at all. His 2yo wins on heavy or soft don't count because he wasn't fully developed at the time and the horses he beat have generally turned out to be moderate or overrated.
However, on Firm and Good to Firm he is 3 from 4 and these were all G1 races. Latest reports from Paris state that the going will be either Good to Soft, Soft or Very Soft. Jean-Guillaume d’Orglandes, track superintendent at Longchamp and two other French tracks explained: ""We were at 3.5 [soft] on the penetrometer this morning following 4mm of rain in the previous 24 hours and nearly 20mm since last Tuesday. "This time of the year at Longchamp you get cool nights and a heavy dew so the moisture tends to stay in the ground." |