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I'd say Westover will be the next one to move in the betting because Ralph Beckett has just said that he will get a racecourse gallop at Epsom next week. There is bound to be some mentions of this in the press in what will be a quite week. I am waiting patiently...
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Do they still think of The Predominate as a derby trial..or even still run it?Remember Troy..
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Still run it. This coming Friday, now called The Cocked Hat
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Piz Badile to be ridden by Dettori.
Don't know too much about the boy Ryan who's been on him on all 3 starts but I think it's a bit of a shame being jocked off.Youngsters should be given the chance but then again the ownwers pay the bills. |
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So O'Brien's battalion is Dettori free. This cannot be good for his other runners, but good news for fav backers.
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Frankie has earned the right to jock off less experienced riders in big races. Of those riding in Europe, Dettori and Soumillion would be my go to jockeys in big races. In run of the mill races, especially winter aw races Sean Levey, Hollie Doyle would be excellent choices, but for the biggest prizes I would want a jockey who has repeatedly proven their ability at the highest level.
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As Piz Badile is trained by another O'Brien no harm done on the relationship between Dettori and Coolmore; Dettori for me at Epsom and Ascot before anyone else.
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its a long break for piz badile since his last run . I was taken by his courage to get back up on the inside , normally a horse will feel intimidated and the one on the outer wins . so he showed a pair of nuts their . His class is a question mark and so is his break as if he were thriving I think he would,ve run in the other trial . The positivity is springing from the jockey booking . Just observations
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Is Point Lonsdale missing the Derby? Huge price on here.
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if that's the case then probably - of course we won't get official confirmation until the money's all been taken
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21 left in - and yes no Point Lonsdale
Cazoo Derby (Epsom June 4) 1 Buckaroo Joseph O'Brien 2 Changingoftheguard Aidan O'Brien 3 Desert Crown Sir Michael Stoute 4 Eydon Roger Varian 5 Glory Daze Andy Oliver 6 Grand Alliance Charlie Fellowes 7 Hoo Ya Mal Andrew Balding 8 Ivy League Aidan O'Brien 9 Lysander William Haggas 10 Masekela Andrew Balding 11 Nahanni Charlie Appleby 12 Piz Badile Donnacha O'Brien 13 Royal Patronage Charlie & Mark Johnston 14 Sir Bob Parker David Menuisier 15 Sonny Liston Charlie Hills 16 Star Of India Aidan O'Brien 17 Stone Age Aidan O'Brien 18 United Nations Aidan O'Brien 19 Walk Of Stars Charlie Appleby 20 Westover Ralph Beckett 21 West Wind Blows Simon & Ed Crisford Scratched Derby horses Bluegrass Aidan O'Brien Cash David Simcock Claymore Jane Chapple-Hyam Dillian Michael Bell Duke De Sessa Dermot Weld El Bodegon James Ferguson Eldar Eldarov Roger Varian Franz Strauss John and Thady Gosden French Claim Paddy Twomey Green Team Owen Burrows Lionel David Menuisier Luxembourg Aidan O'Brien Magisterial John and Thady Gosden Mr McCann Hugo Palmer New London Charlie Appleby Point Lonsdale Aidan O'Brien Savvy Victory Sean Woods Sea Stone Ismail Mohammed Temple Of Artemis Aidan O'Brien Waterville Aidan O'Brien White Wolf Saeed bin Suroor Zechariah Martyn Meade |
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after the confirmations and a positive note from charlie appleby on walk of stars , I think he is the value . You dont get the amount of top horses in their yard through breeding imo . They may be training differently or tues , no doubt about it though that the yard is in front . So walk of stars at 20-1 ish is my selection . best of luck
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I'm not stoked even though the event is only 2 weeks away. Anyone feeling the same? For me it's a lack of outstanding horses eg 2000G winner or runners taking part eg Coroebus/Native Trail/Luxembourg, etc. But, for Desert Crown/Stoute it could have been worse with AOB running his battalion once again.
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From memory I think that a contender will do his last piece of strong work 1 week before the derby . I think that the market vibes at that point will identify the ones that have come forward . I'm worried regarding walk of stars as hes had another "walk" in the market . Not being in the business i could be backing a n/r but i prefer his profile and odds over a stone age . hold hold hold
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Nations Pride and El Habeeb are both getting supped according to the RP
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Any significance? Or merely money into bookies satchels?
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Please can you explain?
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About £85K apiece,I think.Nations
Pride around 10/1 books,the other El Habeeb any price you like.5th/6 on his only start @125/1. |
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The more I watch the trials,the more I'm drawn to
Changingoftheguard.He will stay and he's more or less going to act @Epsom aswell and should be suited by better ground.6L+ wnr of a trial's not too bad in my view.Hope he gets there. 13s on here & 8/1 most books atm. GL ALL |
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ok penzance that's a wow from me . wins maiden on 4th attempt . Beat new London at Chester whom isn't considered good enough to run by Appleby and is zero value . sorry to be negative , but , I cant see what you like about it ? Stick to your guns though , are you convinced ? If "they" put a bullet to your head or mine whom would you be on ? I think I'd be on desert crown and would be scared of the potential improvement from walk of stars
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I am always interested in the horses Aiden sends to Chester since the Fallon input.
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New London was 2nd fav' with some books to win the Derby
as short as 6/1,if I'm right.He's not running because Appleby probably knows he won't turn that form around. If New London would've done that to Changingoftheguard he'd more than likey be a 4/1 - 9/2 shot. I could be totally wide of the mark,that to me was a good performance. GL |
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AOB will send a batallion to ensure a good pace and make it as difficult as possible for Desert Crown. One plus possibly Changingoftheguard (can win given a soft lead) could make the running with Stone Age handily placed just behind.
I think Desert Crown will have to do it the hard way coming from behind to pass Changingoftheguard and Stone Age. I hope no Dancing Brave scenario for Desert Crown. |
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big news Monday Charlie Appleby was rocking on about nations pride being supplemented for the derby and he would pick him to ride , given he worked well on Wednesday . I cant see any mention of the work and he doesn't appear to be supplemented
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They've got to supplement him on Monday.
If they do that is. |
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according to "the sun " nations pride impressed in his work and a decision to supplement or not will be made in the next 48hrs
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why cant this horse be put in the market to be speculated on ?
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Draw, going, final gallops. All variables and all as yet unknown over and above the speculation about form. Wide open really.
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Appleby confirms Nations Pride to be supplemented for the Cazoo Derby
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Has Stone Age been deserted by Moore? He's been drifting the last few days from 4 to 6 here.
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why is Nations Pride still not listed in the Derby field?
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I believe Monday is when supplementary entries are made
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with gzp here walk of stars for me each way a big unit and wernt fully primed last time according to some got 3/4 of a lenth to find wi united nations so not much between those 2 and its an open looking race.
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Is the Derby an open race? The fav is only 15/8, and 2nd fav only 7/2. But, AOB will have another battalion to deploy team tactic. I hope the other jockeys are wised-up to it this time.
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I don;t fancy this horse and anyway he is with a stable who rarely need a reason and can withdraw them for fun but I wonder if Eydon is an each way play. 4th in the Guineas but lots against him - stamina a question, improvement would seem to be needed, etc. 40;s on the Sportsbook here and worth a play for a few quid at that price in my opinion.
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I don't have any strong views. Gone are the days when Grundy and Mill Reef were household names after their 2yo career. I might back Hoo Ya Mal if it runs. Beaten by 3 Godolphin horses but one was Noble Truth and another Nations Pride so if he improves for the trip, he could sneak a place. Nations Pride by 5 lengths from Hoo Ya Mal? Same connections as Khalifa Sat.
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"But, AOB will have another battalion to deploy team tactic. I hope the other jockeys are wised-up to it this time."
Makes not the slightest difference. Coolmore had x8 runners in Authorized`s Derby and couldn`t get close. As a jockey you can only look after yourself and ride your race without concerning yourself with others. Pacemakers maybe but that doesn`t stop the best horse winning. |
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which one of the Ballydoyles will try the Serpentine?
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Down to 11 runners at the 5 days stage. Aiden only has Star of India and Godolphin have Nahanni and Nations Pride. So no team tactics after all. Very surprising. Are they all scared of Desert Crown? I will definitely be on both of Andrew Balding's runners place only.
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Scrap my last post! There are 2 lines of runners on sportsbook with second fav on a different line from the fav!
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