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Epsom Derby 2021
Epsom Derby 2021
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If Epsom get the forecast weather between now and the Derby it looks like the course, which is/was heavy tother day should have dried out to leave decent ground which one assumes would be perfect for Hurricane Lane, based on York run? Personally I didn't like the proximaty of megallan who goes back to 8f at Ascot and sire Frankel was never risked over 12f was he, due to doubts whether he would stay it? I personally don't think High Definition is A Ps best and I'm not convinced that One Ruler isn't Godolphins best either for the Derby. Wish we knew jockey arrangements.......
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One Ruler - James Doyle
Hurricane Lane - Buick. so I read the other day. |
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Ideally Hurricane Lane wants a test of stamina so soft ground might well be a plus, particularly if it inconveniences the opposition. He didn't win at York because of the ground. It was to his credit that was able to win on relatively quick ground over an inadequate trip. His dam was best on testing ground and won on heavy ground over two miles, and it is also the family of Seal Of Approval whose best performance was on soft ground.
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Given the forecast, knowing what we do about Epsom's capacity to dry out in early June, it would be firm ground by 4.00 on Derby Day without watering. Any idea that the current moisture in the ground will somehow provide unwatered ground in 9 days is nonsense. If it's only watering the night before, and no more appreciable rain, it will always dry out by 4 on the day. Not a good augury for colts who require a decent cushion.
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Would you rather have BB at 5/2 or Lone Eagle @ 75/1?!
It's a no brainer... Wake up folks!! He is incredible value considering. Hope he makes the track. |
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so punts, say you've got 1k to put on 1 of them only, you seriously saying that today you would put it on lone eagle???
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No I would never stake 1k on one horse
Stake sensibly and properly. There is always another race. I have a score on the Eagle @ 58/1 so I hope he turns up next week. If he does I will back the place as well.. I think he's got a good E/W chance and if he was trained by AOB he would be 4/1 |
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High Definition drifting badly this afternoon - possible non runner?
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punts I only used 1k as an example because its a meaningful amount that you wouldn't want to throw away on an ante post fishing exercise where you don't even know the horse will run yet. I'd rather put your £20 on the O'brien horse personally because the value bet is it will run but yours quite possibly won't. Different kettle of fish though if its NRNB......
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I get/respect your point punts but for me neither price is takeable. BB too short and LE with little chance of even being placed - only 25's on 365 btw. imo. Third Realm and Hurricane Lane might improve on their listed form but are a bit short too. Be lucky.
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been on about this for years, wish bookmakers would give 2 set of prices antepost price AND nrnbet price as well
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https://www.attheraces.com/news/2021/May/28/meade-eyes-derby-tilt-for-lone-eagle
Seems as if he is going to run. This year's Max Vega? Both won the same 2yo race with cut, both rated 109. |
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having just spent a few hours reviewing the video form of the top contenders , i feel that i can give some perspective to the race . bolshoi ballet is a daisy cutter who likes to go left and has top class form . high definition is too complicated and prolly wins the leger , mac swiney is a soft ground miler despite his pedigree he wont stay , john leeper is over-hyped and not so good , mohaafeth wants a right handed flat track , hurricane lane looks a bit scratchy action and needs cut but not much , third realm reminds me of perfect sunday if you recall him , its all good but hes a group 3 horse . conclusion if its top of the ground bolshoi ballet if theres cut the horse that looks a champion is hurricane lane .obv at the odds im on hurricane lane .best of luck
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an afterthought i forgot to mention, was the strength of high definition in the market given how strong appleby horses usually are and the horse that split them magellan will be top notch also
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ive put a squeek on hurricane lane as he reads in my eyes the winner . my concern is hes too big at 12.7 . im gonna have to put that down to a diverse market rather than the horse not being well . im sucking up another pony . done it . ok lets see
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The market is a concern because Hurricane Lane shouldn't be anywhere near double figures.
As I see it the negatives are the possibility of a lack of pace on drying ground. The positives are his temperament, he isn't ground dependent and his Dante run is arguably the best form on offer. Bolshoi Ballet has basically beaten the same horses twice. I would sooner use Taipan as a guide to their merit rather than Mac Swiney. |
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Yes agree re Third Realm and he might not be good enough , interesting that he had injury time off last year , so improvement still likely , plus Varian said that at Nottingham it was the fastest ground he (Varian ) has seen all year . Though workmanlike there , beating nothing , his last 100 yerds was quite impressive . Have 20s + so optimistic , especially as the occassion wont bother him either .
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>LE with little chance of even being placed
What makes you think he has little chance of being placed? I think he has a great chance. He is a son of Galileo and proven to be going the right way i.e a good one particularly with SDS on board.. He is one of the few Group winners (Zetland at 2) you can forget his Sandown run imo. Comes down to the trainer doesn't it? if AOB had this profile of a horse, by Galileo etc. he would ne 4/1 like I said. Question is can Meade deliver? I don't know but still looks overpriced... I'm fascinated to see how good he can be as I've backed him a few times and been impressed. |
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A few might remember Nick Mordin had a few filters for an English Derby winner.
1)If debut before end of July in 2yo season went on to reach the first four in a 2yo Group race. 2)If raced at two won over 7f+ as a 2yo. 3)After winning a maiden never lost outside Group level. 4)UK debut after June at Newbury or Newmarket (I added The Curragh). 5)Won at 10f+ as a 3yo. 6)Won a Group race. 5 pts: Bolshoi Ballet; High Definition; Hurricane Lane; Lone Eagle; Mac Swiney 4 pts: Earlswood; Etonian; Gear Up; Van Gogh; Youth Spirit 3 pts: John Leeper; One Ruler 2 pts: Adayar; El Drama; Gloucestershire; Kyprios; Mohaafeth; Sandhust; Sir Lamorak; Taipan; The Mediterranean; Third Realm; Yibir 1 pt: Hector De Maris; Mojo Star; Southern Lights; Stay Well 0 pts: Seattle Creek; Seattle Sound 3)After winning a maiden never lost outside Group level. ... my interpretation is if a horse did not run again it gets a point, or if it only contested Group races unsuccessfully after its maiden win it gets a point My opinion is as both High Definition and Mac Swiney did not win at 10f+ as 3yos they are suspect. Other negatives for me for these two is High Definition appears to lack tactical speed and agility, while Mac Swiney has run well only on soft and heavy. |
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I have too Punts ,plus Goodwood worked ok for Epsom last year and also backed Snow Fairy after her win there .
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Points for Group 1, Group 2, Group 3, Listed wins
Greater winning distance = higher points; higher grade win = higher points 11: Bolshoi Ballet; Mac Swiney 8: Lone Eagle; Van Gogh 6: Gear Up; Mohaafeth 3: Earlswood; Etonian; High Definition; Hurricane lane; One Ruler; Youth Spirit 2: El Drama; John Leeper; Third Realm |
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GL paulo. I will back the place (maybe 4 places) on here if he turns up
If he and SDS can pull it off then that is +1k  (we can dream... really excited). |
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O'Brien claiming he is planning to run all 8 of his runners!
Looking like it could be a maximum 20 runners |
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Aidan O'Brien must be without a contender if her runs eight.
He ran eight in 2007: 2nd; 5th; 8th; 9th; 10th; 11th; 12th; 17th. |
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meatloaf the high definition "drift" is quite possibly down to the fact he has dropped out of the Timeform 3yo Top 20 ratings recently.
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kincsem so a 2nd place doesn't qualify as a contender? I personally think he has covered all ground scenarios and if the ground turns around to be fast perhaps his softer ground performers will be used strategically and not given hard races before Ascot.....
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I think it would be fitting if Mohaafeth won the Derby this year and William Haggas is well bullish though I suppose that can be said about most connections and trainers of Derby runners.
Does sentimentality ever win races? I hope so. |
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I wish you luck punts. There;s nothing quite like pulling off a bit on an a/p coup, is there.
I can't remember the least time I actually had a bet in the Derby. It might have been the time I took a suitcase full of fifties and lumped on Shergar. Not.My biggest loser was my biggest teacher - Leonardo Da Vinci. Cecil/Eddery. Pat came off it after it won saying it was possibly th best horse he had ever sat on. I invested. The Dante proved otherwise.  Now I never touch ante-post other than in the greyhound Derby, with a view to greening up as I go. Good luck to all. |
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DeSSieReborn
kincsem so a 2nd place doesn't qualify as a contender? 2nd was beaten a long looking five lengths in 2007. I backed the 2nd, and never had a chance of collecting. |
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Fwiw I think the maximum field is 18, but not sure of that.
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x20
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Reading between the lines of O'Brien interview this morning....
Van Gogh goes to france Sir Lamorak goes to Ascot Likely to run 5 runners |
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no rain forecast all week and temperatures upto 24.oc , looks unlikely to be anything but top of the ground . im finding it hard to see how bolshoi ballet gets beat and its hard to talk about a charlie appleby horse being over-priced . cant get bb beat in my mind except if third realm makes him go too early for hurricane to out stay them
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x19 currently left in.
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What happened to the forecast that the clerk of the course was talking about?
It seems as if Bolshoi Ballet is the only one being backed. Is that actual confidence or just getting in before Moore chooses to ride? If the horse was that superior why waste your time running four or five more? Quite a few of these are style over substance and he would still be in that bracket. Through Taipan the two trials he has won look poor. You would think that Hurricane Lane had lost a leg. You can now get double figures. How much more can they push it? Bad news that Godolphin are not running a pacemaker, unless they intend to sacrifice the non-stayer, One Ruler. It just concedes the shape of the race to O'Brien. |
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Godolphin have kept Adayar in, but he looks an out and out plodder. I can't see him having the pace to lead. That said he should stay which should ensure he does at least finish ahead of One Ruler. The 20/1 for the St Leger might look reasonably attractive after the race.
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No doubt good ground will negate the possible stamina limited expressed by some of Bolshoi Ballet. Would similar condition hinder Mac Swiney? I think High Definition will lack early tactical speed (a bit like Broome in 2019 Derby), but if lying handy coming off Tattenham Corner he's the one to fear, I believe.
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Assuming he stays there are two big question marks with Mac Swiney. Is the mile classic form any good? I would very much doubt it is anywhere near exceptional. Just look at his form in three runs on good ground. He has bombed every time. You might forgive a horse once. I would have thought he is the most ground dependent horse in the race.
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LONE EAGLE is in,.. Looks like I will get a run for my money @ 55 to flippin 1
He is the best VALUE bet in the race |
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Have increased my bet on The Eagle.
It's now or never. https://i.postimg.cc/RZNH10Fq/Lone-Eagle-APBet.jpg Hope he turns up. I'll be backing the place as well (3rd/4th dont know yet, depends on odds etc) |