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Pinatubo

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Replies: 309
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 15 Sep 19 20:46
Still wince every time El Gran Senor is mentioned after getting beat in the Derby.
By:
brigust1
When: 15 Sep 19 20:53
1984 longish time ago and to me the Derby seemed more important then.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Sep 19 08:39
Pre-race, Pinatubo was rated (BHA) 5L superior to Amory over 7f.

Based on the winning distance using their method of calculation he has to rated 128 tomorrow although whether they increase his rating that much is another story, I personally think they will go 127.

I stated on my lay thread yesterday (pre-race) he was the best 2 year old i had seen this season (including Mums Tipple) yesterdays’ run in a very fast time only strengthened my opinion. I think we have to go back to 2010 to find an equal G1/2 year old performance, Dream Ahead who won the Middle park by 9L (and didn’t make the 2000 Guineas). He will not be beaten this year, even by MT if he also takes the Dewhurst route and i would back him accordingly, but there is no way i would take 6/4 for next years’ 2000 guineas at this stage.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 08:51
Good morning Andrew, I hope you are well. I have been quietly following your thread in the lower house and you are doing incredibly well. I watched Pinatubo win yesterday and thought it would be great to see him in the Dewhurst. I went to watch Frankel win his Dewhurst and even walked down the course with Teddy Grimthorpe although he went back at the 7f mark and I continued on until the 12 furlong mark. But unfortunately I'm flying out again on the 8th. Now that is a b u mm er. I would agree about the 6/4 especially after Too Darn Hot.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Sep 19 09:16
Good morning Laurie,

I would also like to go to Newmarket for the Dewhurst, but i'm in Paris the weekend before (Arc) returning to München on the Monday evening, so it would mean travelling again 3 days later, although not impossible of course.

Dream Ahead ran in the Frankel Dewhurst, in fact it was billed as the 2 year old race of ther century, there was another so called superstar Saamidd, all 3 were unbeaten at the time.

Pinatubo is much better than Two Darn Hot (who i always maintained was over-rated) he was mega impressive yesterday.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 09:31
As can happen I don't think Dream Ahead properly recovered from the Middle Park win but on a line through Approve and Saamidd that is difficult to be firm about. I did think Saammidd was over rated but if I remember correctly it may have had something to do with his win at Doncaster which was part of the foundation for the claims about the time Frankel ran on the same or the next day.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Sep 19 09:58
the smile on buicks face as a he was pulling up said a lot ,like a treasure hunter finding a kilo nugget of gold ,this thing looks a freak so far ahead of everything ,lets hope connections dont fook it up .
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 10:05
I know what you say Foyles and the form of the race looks like it worked out as expected. It did have the look of a precocious 2 year old performance though so although I hope we have a real star I will be holding back on ante post bets this year.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Sep 19 10:06
without trying to put a dampner on it ,  worth noting a fair few "superstars have not progressed and  6 months  and a winter is a long time and the gap between him and the rest can be closed .so 6/4 not that attractive at this stage .god knows what price he will be if he does a similar job in the dewhurst!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Sep 19 10:07
credit to woodmanchester for calling it so early .
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Sep 19 10:09
sorry brigust our posts crossed yep echo your thoughts
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 10:09
Remember Johannesburg? Unbeaten in 7 as a two year old including 4 Group 1's. Never won again.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Sep 19 10:10
Over-rated Laurie, what makes you say that Wink

Saamidd was dubbed the new Pegasus by connections (Suroor trained) and went into the Dewhurst 2/2, but finished last of 6 and never won in 8 subsequent races.

Not good at stud either, only sired one, a filly who has only raced once, an egg and spoon maiden in India.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Sep 19 10:14
Gorytus
Tromos
Jacinth

Racing history is littered with 2 year olds that were not the same a year later
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Sep 19 10:17
if i was on at the big prices i would deffo take my stake back will still be on a decent bet and as we see the other week with the champion hurdler even of off the racecourse freakish  things can happen .
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 10:40
You do get horses that win the Middle Park and the Cheveley Park not training on but this was 7f yesterday and a mile looks a shoe in. It does have a too good to be true about it but if it is true he looks really exciting and almost untouchable.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 10:52
I really do hope he is as good as he looks and what I in particular will be watching for next year, and we can all join in, is to see how many opponents Ballydoyle field against him. As we know they fielded 23 against Sea The Stars in his 3 year old career but only 2 against the Galileo son Frankel (no idea why) Wink. And of those two the first was not off and the second an outsider they never ran in this country again. There is a bit of fun for you all. Happy
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Sep 19 11:16
not a paddock watcher but does he look a "2yo" or frame wise does he look as though there is room to fill the frame so to speak !
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Sep 19 11:20
my 1st instinct is to take these types on but 1 or 2 come along that you know you are throwing money into the wind opposing them ..........frankel ,big bucks in his pomp.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 11:33
I won't be taking him on but his price is likely to be too short as well. It isn't that uncommon for horses to come through largely unknown to the stable for their first run but they pretty soon latch on. And sometimes when a horse wins by a wide margin the 2nd has eased off but that wasn't the case yesterday.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 19 11:54
only 2 against the Galileo son Frankel (no idea why)

Just to back up the conspiracy theory, can you state which horses with even a prayer that you believe Ballydoyle held back on that year?
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 12:08
It is not a theory. They had an agreement with Ballydoyle. I thought you knew that. Doesn't make it right though.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 16 Sep 19 12:19
i wont be laying him and as  i have missed the big prices on pinatubo , his prominence in the betting does however leave some big prices on some  other late maturing types who could progress, have already backed tsar and will look for a few others after the dewhurst or over the winter.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 19 12:21
They had an agreement with Ballydoyle. I thought you knew that

So what was the agreement? They would agree to run Roderic O'Connor? Who having finished second in a Dewhurst and went on to win the Irish Guineas I would imagine was their best 3yo hope at a mile. They would also agree to run Zoffany? Who, apart from debut, was the horse who managed to run Frankel closest in his entire career. Which horses did the agreement stop them from running?
By:
dunlaying
When: 16 Sep 19 12:34
It is difficult not to get carried away with Pinatubo's performance yesterday but Monoski is the fly in the ointment .
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 12:42
Had any other trainer trained Roderic O'Connor it would not have finished 13th. It came out next time and beat the Guineas 2nd in the Irish Guineas. Also if any other trainer trained Zoffany it's next run would have been the Sussex Stakes.
This century Ballydoyle have never missed the Sussex Stakes with an average of two runners in each race except the two Sussex Stakes Frankel ran in. The same goes with the QE11 Stakes and the came goes with the Champion Stakes.
If you want to know the full details about the agreement I suggest you ask Julian Muscat at the Racing Post.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 19 13:08
Had any other trainer trained Roderic O'Connor it would not have finished 13th

Ok, so you're saying O'Brien deliberately had him unfit for the Guineas. Even though they knew that if Frankel was on form they had very little chance of beating him (the horse ROC went on to beat in Ireland under a length was stuffed 6 lengths by Frankel) but their horse would still have a good chance of bagging a place. Or if Frankel failed to fire they could even win. Interesting theory Happy.

if any other trainer trained Zoffany it's next run would have been the Sussex Stakes

This time you're saying they thought they were seriously getting close to beating Frankel with Zoffany and one more push might do it but they didn't want to burst his bubble? Another interesting theory. I'd say they just saw what most of us saw. That it wasn't the most well judged ride from Queally / possibly Frankel was even temporarily feeling the effects of the Guineas, and they were extremely lucky to get so close so let's go for far easier pickings in PJP, a race Zoffany still didn't manage to win.

Still no mention of any other possible contenders they ducked the issue with.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 13:15
They made a fortune when Frankel retired. In fact the stud fee increase from Galileo alone earned them more that AOB has won in prize money this century. You can bury your head in the sand if you like but the facts are there whether you like it or not.

The top three year old Guineas and Derby winner Camelot went for the Triple Crown instead of running against Frankel. No other trainer in the country would have missed the opportunity to take Frankel on. The reward was immense. No, I don't think he would have beaten him.

The top older horse So You Think was sent off to stud early with a possible injury. Really after running all over the world suddenly just before there was a chance to take Frankel on he was sent off to stud. Really?
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 19 13:25
The same goes with the QE11 Stakes

Which older milers would you have run that they didn't? They shelled out for Excelebration then pitched him against Frankel in the Lockinge and QE11. Don't tell me, you would've had another crack at Frankel with him in the Sussex with a new cunning tactical plan?

the came goes with the Champion Stakes

Prior to the Champion Stakes they'd just run their best older middle distance horse, St Nicholas Abbey, against Frankel. They even ran two pacemakers to try to expose any stamina limitations Frankel might have over a trip some said he'd be vulnerable at. Result, SNA stuffed by 7. The ground turned soft at Ascot, which was far from ideal for Frankel, but O'Brien had also said previously that SNA wasn't as good on soft. Would you have still run him against Frankel at Ascot? And again which other horses would you have run there that you think they allowed Frankel to dodge?
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 19 13:27
Apologies, meant they ran Excelebration against him in the Lockinge and Queen Anne.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 13:30
They bought Excelebration, some could say because he was keeping Frankel's rating down then he proceeded to run the two worst races against Frankel including the one where he was rated 147 by Timeform. Shocking run at Ascot.

St Nicholas Abbey had never won over 10f even being beaten by his pacemaker. I suggest you watch the race again and see the ride he was given. And listen to the comments of the commentator. Then watch the ride Murtagh gave the Ballydoyle runner against Sea the Stars.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 13:33
I am not saying any more though there is loads more to come. You are obviously a denier so I cannot help you. I did think you were a racing man so any of those instances I suggested you should find abhorrent.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 19 13:47
The top three year old Guineas and Derby winner Camelot went for the Triple Crown instead of running against Frankel. No other trainer in the country would have missed the opportunity to take Frankel on. The reward was immense. No, I don't think he would have beaten him.

So, as you don't think he'd have beaten him do you not think they thought the same? Instead of any absurd notion that they were giving Frankel an easy? Camelot only just won a weakish Guineas (not as bad as this year's) by getting up late. He was no Sea The Stars, 12f was always going to be his optimum. Would you have seriously dropped him back to 10f to chase Frankel rather than opt for what looked an easy opportunity to be the first male triple crown winner since Nijinsky? Maybe you would, but it was hardly a baffling decision by them to go the route they did. If he'd have won the Leger easily then it could be said what might have been if the horse was in another yard. Fact is he didn't even win the Leger.

The top older horse So You Think was sent off to stud early with a possible injury. Really after running all over the world suddenly just before there was a chance to take Frankel on he was sent off to stud. Really?

Yes really. A lot of people would say running hard all over the world up to the age of 6 would increase the chance of a horse eventually picking up an injury. Not you apparently. Fact is he was being aimed at the Eclipse next, a race he won the previous year, a race that wasn't even on Frankel's agenda. Mystery solved, no conspiracy, nothing to see here Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 13:50
I had you down as having more sense. Big mistake. Huge. Let us hope Pinatubo challenges him and his ridiculous rating then these points will finally get public discussion they deserve. Like to see you defending it then.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 19 13:57
Then watch the ride Murtagh gave the Ballydoyle runner against Sea the Stars

Yes, this might be news to you, but jockeys, at least the competent ones, do tend to be a bit more vigorous in the saddle when they're in a neck and neck battle approaching the final furlong with another runner who only beats them a length, compared to one whose backside they're peering at from 7 lengths Laugh
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 14:02
This jockey though was riding a horse who needed every yard and more than 12f. He was sat hard on the bridle when Frankel went past him and he gave him one single backhander in the whole race. Even the commentator commented. But if you think that is Ok then I will leave that with you.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 19 14:02
Brigust, so what did you make of Moore in the SJP? Disobeying orders? Or were they just air shots and him pretending to row a boat? Grin
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 14:05
Two wrongs do not make a right. I have no idea what you are talking about. And I am not interested.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Sep 19 15:13
Pinatubo gets 134 rating from Timeform
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Sep 19 15:20
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/news/pinatubo-awarded-135p-rating-following-national-stakes-romp-1692019
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