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The Eclipse - Sandown July 6th
The Eclipse - Sandown July 6th
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Speed/time figures
What's the source of these figures? |
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Mine
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https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/ratings-update/ratings-update-enable-back-with-a-bang-872019
I see Timeform have a similar view about the Eclipse. And no I'm not putting that up as a backup for my viewpoint, just as another reference of opinion. There are many times I disagree with Timeform and from a punting perspective that's the way I prefer it. |
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It is the sort of figure that trainers throw out without thinking very hard. Does that mean the horse will improve its RPR/OR/race time by 15%? Of course not. She might be capable of improving by 2-3 lengths but that is about it.
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I've been looking at Magical to see how she could be ridden to better effect. Against Enable and Crystal Ocean she seemed to lack the tactical speed when it was required so perhaps the answer may be to lead from the outset. I do believe had she been ridden to lead in her last two races the winners would not have stopped her but then with her having the choice of when to quicken Enable and Crystal Ocean may have found it more difficult to pass her just as she did to pass them. It will be interesting to see how they ride her next time. Of course, what is more likely is that she is not as good as the other two.
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Well she definitely isn't as good as the first one.
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74 new posts, jaysus.
briefly been through a few. Figgis is never wrong, is the takeaway from it all. must be a nightmare to work with this guy... |
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I think Magical was ridden to near perfection by Moore in the 2018 Breeders Cup Turf despite lacking tactical speed for the 1st few furlongs, but she was soon in 6th place on the inside just behind her stablemate Hunting Horn (4th) who was serving it to Enable (5th) on his outside; Magical looked the likely winner when Hunting Horn allowed her through on his inside thus pushing Enable 5 wide rounding the final bend.
But, despite both Enable and Magical soon pulling clear of the field Enable just had sufficient in reserve to edge forward again to the line. Thus, I think it was no surprise Magical could not claw back the ground she gave to Enable over 10f - she just could not quicken as well as Enable. And, I cannot envisage Magical beating Enable in the Arc, all things being equal. However, in the Prince Of Wales I think Magical could have done better had she served it up to Crystal Ocean sooner, and not allowed Dettori and Crystal Ocean dictated the race to suit, assuming Crystal Ocean had not improved from last season. |
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Figgis is never wrong, is the takeaway from it all. must be a nightmare to work with this guy...
Coming from the man who very rarely has the balls to put up anything of note. Just scrambles around to chip in at the end of threads to bitch at anyone who picked a loser  |
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Reged
06 Jul 19 21:23 Joined: 22 Aug 01 | Topic/replies: 33,644 | Blogger: Reged's blog . A traditional big-hitter joins the frame. uptheboro went to Kelly's Dino to earn a blastiferous 14/1 and rise six to third. He'll be dinoing out on that for a while! That puts him behind Charlton2005, still banging them in with a hat-trick 11/4 that hitched him up one to second. Another 11/4 winner, youresomean, was up three to 10th. Apart from that we just had an odds-on from mymumsfinethankyou that left him in sixth. Best of luck to the Sunday strivers. I've put up triple digit winners on here fella, so please, bother someone else. |
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Well done you. Just a shame you can't put up an alternative selection to impossible123, yet you're always there first out of the traps to stick the boot in when he gets it wrong. Funny that, I wouldn't have thought a successful punter would care
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 never wrong fella, you really are never wrong. |
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Oh I'm wrong plenty of times, just like any punter I've known, losers and winners. But at least the losers had the spine to give a selection, and the winners didn't yap like little bitches when someone else got it wrong
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If I owned Magical knowing she is not a million miles away I would try to work out a way to beat Enable. They finally worked out how to beat Golden Horn with Found knowing GH didn't enjoy 12f on soft ground so they took advantage when the opportunity arrived.
Enable is different because she clearly stays 12f well and doesn't mind soft ground. But I do think she may be vulnerable over 10f on fast ground and a fast track, like York. JG is leaning towards the Yorkshire Oaks but the owner sponsors the Juddmonte. Magical is also entered in the Juddmonte. She has also made all twice and won over 7 furlongs. If I owned Magical I would go for the Juddmonte and try to make all. She stays 12f well so stamina is not an issue. |
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I do know the Juddmonte is over 10.5 furlongs by the way.
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Hi Laurie,
Hopefully your're still in UK. Magical is a good filly, but she’s no Enable, irrespective of how close she got at Churchill Downs and Sandown, and to be honest I doubt she will ever beat her at 10f or 12f. Enable is always going to be difficult to beat anyway apart from her class, she can win from on or off the pace (although they tend to race her prominently these days) she switches off and travels well (good cruising speed similar to Frankel) and a burst of acceleration 2f out that often takes her 2-3 lengths clear, no matter who the field is. She understandably faded at Sandown, but never looked like losing. Magical is rated 2 lb below Enable, understandable knowing how they are calculated but it’s crazy and i think you know i’m not an avid fan of form ratings aka Timeform or BHA using weight vs lengths anyway. They’re not overly reliable and occasionally manipulated, but it’s the only equational system of designating form lines we have, so we tend use it. Enable has never been eyeball to eyeball with another in the final furlong yet, but I sense she will always fine more. She’s likely to take the KG, Yorkshire Oaks, Arc and Breeders route, but if she wins in France it wouldn’t surprise me if KA called it a day, she will certainly have deserved it. |
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Good morning Andrew. Yes, I am around for a few days. I have the dentist on Wednesday and with the kids breaking up on Friday arrangements are a little tricky at the moment.
I don't believe Magical will beat Enable but I was looking at what I would do if I were in AOB's shoes. She is not a forlorn hope in my opinion and if the send Enable to York for the Juddmonte I would give her an outstanding chance. We both know how good the 3-year-olds can look with the allowances but it often changes when they lose the allowances and Enable hasn't looked as good as a 4 and 5-year-old. I thought Montjeu was the exception but even he couldn't cope with the 3-year-olds in his 2nd Arc. I agree about the rating's people. They do seem to have completely lost the plot. You know what I think about the F rating and they then continued to confirm my opinion about how much they have lost the plot with the Cracksman rating. I don't know what you think about this year's 3-year-old colts but what would you say if the beat Enable in the King George? I have never rated Crystal Ocean as a Group 1 horse so it will be an interesting race all round. |
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*they
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Laurie,
This season 8f-12f 3 year olds are much of a muchness with only Japan really holding form up, but hopefully Ten Sovereigns can fly the flag for the sprinters. I can't see them troubling Enable at Ascot and it will be a good pace if Sovereign runs. The KG is Enables to lose of course and Crystal Ocean is a danger although Japan would have been another, i thought he ran well yesterday even though it may not have look it. Sea of Class obviously won't be there and it's difficult to see who can beat her to be honest, although i'm not suggesting she's a certainty of course. Sadly i will not get to Ascot as i intimated, i was checking flights at the weekend and realised i'm back in Sweden on 26th (evening) returning 29th (morning). Bad planning, but i book those regular flights early to get the price. Never mind, i've seen her run twice and will see her again in October. |
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do you know, wouldnt surprise me at all, that japan could well turn up at ascot, for me had an easy race on sunday and 80s on here , i.ll have a few quid on that just in case
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The price tells you all you want to know.
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"The Arc always has been [in our minds] and after the last day we wanted to give him one more run and so it was nice to come here. He would then have a possibility of the Irish Champion or coming back here for the Niel," said O'Brien.
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They'll want to keep the illusion going that he's a proper Gp1 horse for as long as they possibly can. Therefore no danger of him appearing here.
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No chance of Japan turning up this saturday given the firepower at the disposal of Coolmore. He's presently on holiday after a few quick runs for a hopefully "fruitful" Autumn campaign.
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No chance of Japan turning up this saturday
Correct, the race is Saturday 27th July ! |
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