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The Eclipse - Sandown July 6th
The Eclipse - Sandown July 6th
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Reading this thread, am i the only one that thinks Enable is a bet at evens in the Eclipse tomorrow ?
 With respect to the respective posters, i'm surprised at comments aka ‘I'm sure that Magical has progressed past Enable now‘ and every runner has big negatives they will need to overcome Enable is one of the best middle distance fillies of recent times, up there with Zarkava, Treve and Oh So Sharp. It's not a particularly strong field, she goes well fresh, has the best form, won on the ground, a good turn of foot and best jockey on board. The BHA for whatever ridiculous reason dropped her 3 lb to 125 from her last run, but she's still the top rated by 2 lb. Her rating is too low anyway, how can they have Mustashry only 4 lb below her. I don't see 10f at Sandown being an issue, it's a galloping track with a steady uphill slope in the straight with an emphasis on stamina anyway, she had the speed to win over 8f as a 2 year old and the Chester Oaks as a 3 year old over the extended 11f. She has a high cruising speed and will be ridden up with the pace as always. The winner for me. Good luck. |
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Value is in the eye of the beholder. I think she is the likely winner but not a bet at Evens.
If you would be totally shocked if she was beaten then Evens is a good price. That’s the fun of horse racing. |
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Surely the Chestet Oaks form isn't seriously being put up as proof she has the speed as a 5yo for a top 10f all age event? I backed her for the Oaks after that race but this is a massive step up from that.
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Zarkava, Treve and Oh So Sharp
Incidentally, not one of those fillies ever won a 10f all age Gp1 . Pebbles, Snow Fairy, The Fugue, all much faster fillies on their day for me. |
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Enough negatives for me to make Enable a lay at evens although I can't say which one will beat her. First time out, 10 furlongs, first time on fast ground for 2 years. At least she is now declared overnight so no longer an ante post bet.
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Figgis,
Zarkava, Treve and Oh So Sharp Incidentally, not one of those fillies ever won a 10f all age Gp1 Wink Correct, but i was comparing Apples for Apples, they are all primarily 12f fillies. Good luck Enable layers, but i will not be one of them. |
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Andrew, I have no argument that Enable was a top class 3yo. She would have been very difficult to beat even at 10f with the allowances. A question for you though. Enable received 10lbs off her elders when winning her first Arc. Do you believe she showed she had improved that 10lbs from 3 to 4?
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Figgis,
No i don't and nor do the BHA, in fact they state she improved 2 lb between the two Arcs. Her current rating is 125 that i feel should be higher anyway. She ran off 126 at Kempton in her comeback last year when not 100% fit beating a very reliable yardstick for which she was raised 2 lbs. If she runs a couple of lbs below her rating tomorrow she will probably win. Ratings are not set in stone anyway, we all know that, but in mý opinion Magical is the only realistic danger and she will not have the 4 lb allowance she had at Churchill Downs. |
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Enable as a 4yo gave Magical 4lbs and a 3/4 length beating. For me, if Enable and Magical had both run as 3yos Enable could still have given Magical 4lbs and the same beating. I saw no improvement whatsoever.
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Apologies, I meant did you think she improved 7lbs, as the fillies allowance is obviously still there.
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Andrew, another question, do you think Magical could have shown what she's shown this season last year off level weights (including the fillies allowance)?
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Figgis,
Enable as a 4yo gave Magical 4lbs and a 3/4 length beating. For me, if Enable and Magical had both run as 3yos Enable could still have given Magical 4lbs and the same beating. I saw no improvement whatsoever She didn't have to show improvement, i'm not sure this is relevant anyway. Enable was the better 3 year old, 4 year old and is still the better filly compared to Magical. One thing to consider, Enable is relatively lightly raced for a 5 year old, only 11 races, Magical a year younger has had 16. Anyway, more tomorrow, i have a flight to catch soon. Good luck. |
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She didn't have to show improvement
That is obvious and not in dispute. i'm not sure this is relevant anyway Of course this is relevant when the weight allowances change. We have one filly, Enable, who I think you would agree even as a 3yo could've given Magical 4lbs and a 3/4 length beating. It therefore has to be disappointing that as a supposed fully mature 4yo she did no more than she could've done a year earlier. On the other hand it would be hard to argue that Magical as a 3yo could've performed as she has this year carrying the same weight as her elders. |
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It therefore has to be disappointing that as a supposed fully mature 4yo she did no more than she could've done a year earlier
Why disappointing ? She won, didn't have to do more than she did and was coming off a hard race in the Arc. The bottom line is, Enable is a much better filly than Magical, irrespective of age, lengths and lbs and i think she will show this tomorrow, but i've been wrong before. |
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Why disappointing ? She won, didn't have to do more than she did
Well for those who backed her it obviously wasn't disappointing. However if a 3yo filly is rated 134 for winning an Arc we know that in reality it ran to 127, 7lbs were added for estimated age disadvantage. If that filly does not make that 7lbs improvement I'd say it becomes a massive factor when she's priced up like a horse that has actually run to 134. |
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I guess you are a layer of Enable?
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No, one of my bets would've been a lay of her if the race hadn't cut up but it did.
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I will be opposing her with a fair degree of confidence but not as much as I would have if there had been a runner to really fancy. Actually I really wouldn't mind if she did win this as I'm confident she'll get well beaten in the King George.
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Personally I'm against Enable because she's running in a group 1 fto without a prep race, which is a very difficult thing to do after Royal Ascot and Magical whom I think needs a rest.
Zabeel Prince...25/1 ew. Forget her last run at Ascot, it's probable he does not like the place, ran a very similar race there last season. Prior to that, he beat a solid group2 horse in Study Of Man, but it's the earl of Sefton form that's impressive. The 2nd came out and won group 2 race, the 3rd..Mushtarry won the Lochinge..group 1 and 4th, Elaaqam has won 2 listed races. To my eyes that is solid group 2 form, would only have to improve a few pounds to be in the mix.. Off the others, then Telecaster s Dante win is now looking impressive, but can he bounce back after his Derby flop? |
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telecaster wouldnt be first horse to run well at york and shockingly at epsom.
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just looking now on eclipse winners, christ nashwans time of 2 min 07 secs was outstanding. (wasnt it heavy).
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Thought I might get evens a place Magical but this now seems most unlikely so will put Enable in a few multiples.
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Happy to see Enable win but not my kind of bet and as outlined earlier with very fast ground on the cards I think Mustashry has to be the e/w bet at 16/1.
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Even though her fans will scoff at the suggestion, I say there are a few here that have shown more speed than Enable. However it doesn't matter what has shown better in the past, it's about doing it tomorrow that counts. A few of her opponents are on a downward curve or coming here as an afterthought after a hard race or two, whereas I expect Enable to be primed for this.
On ability Magical would've been my clear pick and a confident bet. She may well prove a tougher than average filly who can keep coming back for more but at the price I have to play the percentages and I think there's a strong chance we won't see the same filly as at Ascot. I think it's possible she could run a few pounds below that and still win but she could also bomb, so I have to pass. Even though Mustashry clearly had the ability to win the Lockinge I passed on him as I'm just not keen on backing 6yos in Gp1s. He proved me wrong that day but I'm still leaving him here. Some people have said the Dante form was poor but I don't agree. He's obviously no superstar but I think Telecaster showed form there as good as some ordinary Derby winners such as Masar or Ruler Of The World. I didn't fancy him for the Derby because I thought he had quite a hard race that day with little time to recover, so it was no surprise to see him finish down the field. In hindsight, as an AVD backer and seeing how things have panned out I reckon if Telecaster had shown his York form he would've won the Derby. As I said he's no superstar but, Magical aside, the older horses haven't shown proper 10f Gp1 form so 10lbs is a massive advantage. I have no idea if he will return to form here. He never ran as a 2yo so the York race might've taken a lot out of such an inexperienced horse, but at the price I have to back him in the hope he can repeat the York effort. I'm also backing Regal Reality. In his case I feel sure he'll run to form as he ran a career peak last time. The problem here is that it was a few pounds short of 10f Gp1 form, but I'd still argue he ran as fast that day as Enable ever has minus the allowances. Including Enable's fillies allowance I have him level with her. I think he can run her very close and it's possible he hasn't finished improving, just a few more pounds and he can beat her. |
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However if a 3yo filly is rated 134 for winning an Arc we know that in reality it ran to 127, 7lbs were added for estimated age disadvantage.
Figgis, Incorrect if you're referring to BHA that i suspect you are, the rating is what it implies. If you want to take other factors into consideration use a different rating system. We've had several good discussions about Enable over time and you obviously strongly feel she is not as good at 4 as she was a year earlier simply because you expected her to beat horses by further (i.e. implying no improvement). Sometimes they don't have to, look at Brigadier Gerard as a typical example, or sometimes the ratings are wrong. Just because a horse gets closer to a rival in another race, one year later or not, doesn't imply the winner has regressed or not improved. There are so many variables, track, going, pace to name a few. I'm very surprised you think Magical is better than Enable on ablilty alone and that makes her a confident bet. You're basically devaluing everything Enable has achieved in only 11 races. Irrespective of whatever she does today her record of 4 Oaks, a KG, 2 Arcs and a Breeders cup (beating Magical twice in the process giving her weight) with possibly more to come, will never be repeated in our life times. She's an exceptional filly/mare and if she wins today and another Arc will probably go down as one of the best ever of her kind. Of course my opinion is biased, i love the mare, and see her differently to you, winning a good few bob by thinking that. Today will be different as i don't have a working BF account, but i feel she is the winner. Irrespective of this, the game is all about opinons and none of us get it right every time. Good luck whatever you play. |
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you obviously strongly feel she is not as good at 4 as she was a year earlier simply because you expected her to beat horses by further
No, mainly I expect her to run faster tom show she doesn't need the weight allowance anymore, she hasn't up to now. I'm very surprised you think Magical is better than Enable on ablilty alone and that makes her a confident bet I said she would have been a confident bet. I think she may have done too much on the way to this to run to her best. You're basically devaluing everything Enable has achieved in only 11 races. Irrespective of whatever she does today her record of 4 Oaks, a KG, 2 Arcs and a Breeders cup (beating Magical twice in the process giving her weight) with possibly more to come, will never be repeated in our life times I backed her to win the Oaks. I had her in a double to win a small fortune with Cliffs Of Moher that year (which obviously never happened). I posted on here after she won the Oaks that she was the fastest Oaks winner I'd seen and she could win the King George and even an Arc. I'd say I was well aware how good she was from quite an early stage. She's no Frankel, however. She needs to improve from the age of 3 to remain at the top as she loses the allowance. I saw no improvement from her at all last year. Basically she got away with it last season, in my view. I know it was by accident rather than design but she missed the whole of the summer when the really good fast races are being run. She went on to win the Arc narrowly from Sea Of Class, who many people felt was unlucky. Unlucky or not, in my opinion Sea Of Class is nothing special, Enable the year before in receipt of the same allowances would have thrashed her. Where would Cloth Of Stars finish in a top mid summer race? Well beaten, for me. Despite the prestige the race carries, the Arc often takes less winning than a top summer race. It's a race usually big on numbers and looks good on paper but many of the best horses are over the top by then. Any decent runner primed for the race has a big advantage. I said after Treve won the Arc that unless she improved from 3 to 4 she would struggle if they sent her over for a summer Gp1. I had a confident bet on The Fugue that day and the excuses were made for Treve, who in reality ran just as fast as she had when winning the Arc but without the allowance. I'd say Treve was about 3lbs better when she won the Arc, so unless Enable can find more at the age of 5 she's going to struggle even more. She might even just about get away with it today. Magical could be ready to regress. Telecaster's current well form is a shot in the dark. Regal Reality might not improve at all. I'd be more confident about her losing the King George but I still see her as very vulnerable today. Gosden should just have done what he did last year, found her a very easy prep in the autumn and hoped that this year's Arc was as weak as last year's. |
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* to show
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doubts about them all and in saying that going for stouts 2 mustashry and regal reality at 14s plus and around 10s on here .
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However if a 3yo filly is rated 134 for winning an Arc we know that in reality it ran to 127, 7lbs were added for estimated age disadvantage.
had this discusiion with you a couple of times figgis. you dont understand the principle of wfa. |
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I was talking about Timeform ratings. What is it I don't understand then?
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Incorrect if you're referring to BHA that i suspect you are, the rating is what it implies.
Andrew, here is the BHA handicapper's blog after her first Arc win https://www.britishhorseracing.com/handicappers-blog-5-october-2017/ Looks to me like they have not deducted anything for the wfa allowance, only the fillies allowance. They have rated her on the assumption that as a 4yo she would improve the 7lbs allowed for wfa. |
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surprised Enable is so short - first run and she's a 12f horse. top class filly though
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No, mainly I expect her to run faster to show she doesn't need the weight allowance anymore, she hasn't up to now.
She's run faster than anything she's met in 10 of 11 races so far |
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Andrew, I know you like the filly but why do you have trouble in separating the form she showed when in receipt of the allowances to the form she showed since?
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What kind of bookies are these?
They've shortened every single horse!  |
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Figgis,
Andrew, I know you like the filly but why do you have trouble in separating the form she showed when in receipt of the allowances to the form she showed since? I don't, but the simple fact is she is still winning without all the 3 year old filly wfa allowances that are a significant benefit late in the season. As stated earlier, i don't have a financial interest in the race, but i want her to win for racings sake (we all lke champions) and because of the faith i have had in her ever since Epsom. |
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Maybe the bookies do not fancy Enable thus shortening the others.
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Exactly as predicted.
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As a certain Mrs Turner used to sing ................. simply the best
 Enough said |
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Figgis
Date Joined: 28 Sep 04 Add contact | Send message 06 Jul 19 15:23 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 8,071 | Blogger: Figgis's blog Andrew, I know you like the filly but why do you have trouble in separating the form she showed when in receipt of the allowances to the form she showed since? you're the one who is having trouble fella |