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thought it was going to do it for a second - lol
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Got the ew bet up in the Lucky last, but it was backed in from $16 to $9.8
Early picks for Wednesday as I’m away from HK for the week and can’t access gambling sites. R5 Super Giant to win (could be ew price), first go at HV but won well at Chester not the best of draws but could be a decent price. R6 California Fortune EW, interested to see how he goes as he’s been beaten last 2 by Regency Legend who I think is a group horse if he progresses from a 3yo. R8 Epic EW, one run so far and might improve, has trialled fairly well. |
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yeah seen that Accie in the last , wd.
I like the speculative chances of Magnificent in R8 now being stepped up in trip - place price $10 I'm also having a small play in R5 - Imperial Gallantry W/P - Has won here a few times and will be interesting to see if this 7yo can be more competitive now back in a class 3. |
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So sick - still happy with the $25/1 place starting price
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holy **** - it dead heated -omg
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paid 188/1 on the Win - think i'll get half of that - unbelievable
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Not really anything that stands out tomorrow imo
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I’m having 2 bets, Furore ew in the 4yo series as he’s currently around $9. In R2 a small ew on no 7, first up but he’s trialled vet well.
50-50 could run a place in the G1 vs Beauty Generation, leaving the 2000m race completely as the brothers will no doubt ruin each other’s chances again - I think TW is being run by Cruz to do that and then sets up Exultant to win....but he’s not a price you could back. Waikuku running in R5 too. |
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glad i didnt play today - would have been a disaster for me
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I am looking at a few each way tonight - one I am particularly keen on is Shining Gem in R5, not a great draw but he's a good price to make it worthwhile at 10-1. I think the 8 horse will win R6 but and may not be an ew bet now, Callan's horse ew in R7 could go well from gate 1
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tough day - didn't like anything tbh.
Sha Tin looks a really tough track to get right from a betting perspective - i could be wrong as im stilling learning about HK racing .....but it just looks like everything needs to drop right in running to land a touch from a trainer's and Jockey's perspective. I see that the Draw bias at the Valley is more obvious....but i just get a feeling that you just dont need as much luck with the field's running tactics. Whats your luckiest track Accie, from a betting perspective ? and which one do you prefer ? |
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Hi Roz.....I'm equally unlucky (or a bad judge) at both of them!
The best way to bet either course is wait until the last half of the card and see how the track is running, which can be a pain if you've got something early on in the card that you really like. If that's the case I tend to rein in the stake, if I like one later in the card and it suits the way the track is running then i will increase the stake.The other point to note is the course that is being used and how horses tend to run on that course, generally anything on the C you need a handy horse as not much comes from the back. Those that trial well on the AWT generally run well at HV but you cannot underestimate the affect on the lights and the crowd at HV so it's definitely horses for courses.....I suppose it takes years of experience, I've been here 11 years now and I struggle - but that is sometimes down to poor discipline too!!! On another note, KR has 2 entries for the festival (He's 33-1 for both at the moment), but I wouldn't back him just yet as he may not run as he could run earlier in a different valuable handicap. IT's all ground dependent.....will keep you updated as and when. Will come back later on my thoughts about tomorrow |
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Classic Beauty race 8 ew for me, got a 6lb turnaround with the fav for their last run and will suit the step up to 2000m, drawn 2 is a positive too. I also think Volpino should go close in the lucky last - might have a little bit on Gold Chest in R2 if he drifts a bit more
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I wont be betting at Cheltenham this year like years past - just on the last day for interests sake - getting a bit too wise to become too involved in all the hype.
I've decided to only follow International Racing from now on - Its where all my profit has come from within the last 14 months. good luck today - i'll be up early to watch the racing 5am out time |
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Volpino is currently 8$ - surprised ist so big.
Im going to play Righteous Doctrine too in the last race - now down into a class 3 - small interest only W/P |
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Waikuku (my outsider pick a few weeks ago for the derby) runs again today over 1800m. Hopefully he runs well enough to go for the actual race in 2 weeks. He’s carrying top weight so I’m having an ew go on Charity Go as I think he’s the value in the race at 10-1, won’t be too disappointed if Waikuku wins though as that could see him fav for the big race.
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Waikuku (my outsider pick a few weeks ago for the derby) runs again today over 1800m. Hopefully he runs well enough to go for the actual race in 2 weeks. He’s carrying top weight so I’m having an ew go on Charity Go as I think he’s the value in the race at 10-1, won’t be too disappointed if Waikuku wins though as that could see him fav for the big race.
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Waikuku (my outsider pick a few weeks ago for the derby) runs again today over 1800m. Hopefully he runs well enough to go for the actual race in 2 weeks. He’s carrying top weight so I’m having an ew go on Charity Go as I think he’s the value in the race at 10-1, won’t be too disappointed if Waikuku wins though as that could see him fav for the big race.
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That 25-1 Waikuku doesn’t look too bad now.
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inspired selection - should have followed you in
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I’m having a little ew at 20-1 Vidorra for the Al Quoz sprint.
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Well, he's in for Thursday.....rain has come, extra 4f should suit....he's well, but it's Cheltenham!!
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Ive had a little bit on Vidoora at 20s
Good luck tomorrow |
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Thanks Roz, I’m hoping for a bit more rain but g/s and soft should suit him. He doesn’t owe us anything so it’s just amazing to have a horse decent enough to get in. I don’t agree (obviously biased) with the expert views that he was found wanting off this Mark last run, he only had 3 weeks between runs and didn’t really enjoy the ground that much.
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All the best HK, hopefully the showers arrive tomorrow for Riko. Tough race, especially with Hughes not riding but he might improve again stepping up in trip. Just hope he doesn't get too far back early on!
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I think it will improve him as his better hurdle form was at around 2m 3/4f - just hope for a safe round and a decent showing, can’t believe the price on here! He has raced near to the pace before so I’m hoping he won’t be too far back and he brings his best jumping, if he does that then he’ll be in with a shout.
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They have had a good shower at Cheltenham this morning, it might go back to Soft ground all around... hopefully! Waiting to see if I can get some more juice out of Riko's price before having an EW bet. Backed Didero Vallis last night at 25-1 EW and will add Riko later.
Not a great draw for Waikuku in 14 HK. Dark Dream not too bad in 8... Ka Ying Star interesting in 2, he could dictate the pace again from that barrier. A strong pace would make it easier for Waikuku to drop in, could be tricky otherwise. |
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150/1 on betfair win market , 12/1 place market
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Tough for Riko, this race nearly always favours horses up with the pace. Happy to squeak some place money with Didero!
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Was always going to be tough for Riko - only a select few horses can act around there.
I backed that Mullins mare Concertista at crazy prices on the exchange in the 4.50 - so sick beaten by a short head - had never run over hurdles in any country ![]() |
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Crazy race that one Roz!
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Good luck today Accie with Waikuku
Ive played a little ew on MARQULA at 30/1 in Race 4 - only $21 on the HK tote at this moment ... which will most likely get bigger as we get closer to the race. |
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He blew his chances before leaving the paddock, as I said it was a bonus to get to run there, many have the dream! He's still a good horse, and he did run on again at the end....one more run and then a rest for next season.
Not worried b Waikuku's draw but I do think that Mission Tycoon is huge value at 16-1 on HKJC. |
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Yeah i seen him running on - its just so brutal there at Chelts , also all the rigmarole in the paddock
any other horses you like today ? |
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Unlucky Accie
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Have BF dropped Hong Kong?
Cards have been missing the last couple of weeks. |
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I think Betfair do put up the cards at their own prices on sportsbook for the Happy Valley meetings , but to be honest that might have stopped recently , i dont really know.
I cant see how BF can have an SP , as the only official SP is the HK Tote price B365 are good for HK Racing as they offer both their prices and access to the HK Tote - Totepool normally have prices up but they are unreliable. Ladcrooks offer in shop Tote betting (only on Happy Valley) - they dont offer odds on Sha Tin at all , in shop or online. |
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Sent you PM - Dinos, Accie
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Thanks Roz - been away from HK on a trip to Phuket so the only gambling I’ve been doing is with my liver and on the golf courses!
I’m going to also add Brave Smash in for the Al Quoz tonight. Will me having a look tomorrow at ST |
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Chairmans Sprint , any opinions Accie, Dinos ?
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