Horse Antepost
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HKIR 2019
HKIR 2019
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Totally agree with all of that Roz.
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I was looking at Salouen, the form/rating he got from June seems to have held from his Arc run, I think he could be a value bet on Sunday on the HKJC but I wouldn't back him at 10-1.
Ezirya is also starting to interest me as a prospect she's got some decent form in the book, but that BC run wasn't that great so does she travel that well. I do agree this is the hardest race to fathom as there's no real standout horse like last year. I can't have any of the HK horses winning it either (that statement alone should guarantee one wins), but if the good Pakistan Star turns up he'll win - but you can't guarantee that. I have backed him as a hedge in the UK at 12-1. I'm likely to stick with Mirage Dancer as he looks like he's settled in nicely and that form with Best Solution looks quite solid now. The sprint is equally as difficult, BTC got a decent draw and might be my pick come race day, DB got a shocking draw in 2 I think as he may encounter traffic problems from there - Mr Stunning (my early pick) may be sat 3 wide from there so I need to have a proper look, he does have the best time over the CD out of all the HK horses. The mile draw hasn't been as significant over the years so i wouldn't read too much into it, BG will go and lead anyway. The cup is with Japan I think again, but which one? |
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This Salouen - has never won a group race....not even a group 3.
And here he is as low as 7/1 for one of the best 1m4f races in the world. Its all about that Coronation Cup way back in June. |
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Only bet for me is Eziyra in the Vase at 16/1.
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^She had a shocking draw in the Breeders Cup so basically ignore the run imo.
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Roz - think it’s his Arc run too, but you’re right he’s no value in the Uk. I think he’ll be double thatvon hkjc come Sunday so then he does come into consideration based on his form (non-winning form).
Nice bet Uncle, the girls have won this race before, as has The AK. Last year was all about HR, so easy to pick - this year I’ve changed my mind so many times! The only bet I do have on at the moment is Pakistan Star and that’s without conviction as it’s a just in case bet! |
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One of the UK high street bookmaker allows you to bet on the HK tote , actually you are only allowed to bet on the HK Tote with them in their shops.
Might be worth doing some of the bets in their shops. |
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Strongly fancy Mirage Dancer presuming the ground being good or quicker. Wide draw but hopefully breaks well and Moore can get him across and dictate it from the front. He doesn't have to lead, but would be worried he may end up posted wide if he's held up, lack of pace in race, and then it becomes more difficult. Think he is still improving and clearly at his best on quick ground. Ran an incredible race at Newbury just to lose out to Young Rascal giving him 6lbs - I have no doubt he was hating that ground.
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Mirage Dancer will struggle big time to get to the front and dictate the pace of the race with Crocosmia running. She goes to the front no matter what and has great gate speed, she also has the perfect position for a front runner in Barrier 1 and will be on the lead. She doesn't muck about and if they let her do her own thing she will be dangerous. There are a few in this which like to be handy and this race looks like it could have a good pace to it, especially if they try and take on Crocosmia. I'm sticking with Lys Gracieux... heart is ruling my head but as I've posted previously she has put in some quick final 3f times this year and the way she mowed them down in QEII Cup, the trip shouldn't be a problem (stamina in the pedigree). Magic Man onboard... anything is possible.
Had another bet on Persian Knight, took the 10/1 EW with SPBet, that was too big IMO. HK Vase: Lys Gracieux 8-1 EW (UnBet) HK Sprint: Beat The Clock 10-1 EW (SpBet) HK Mile: Persian Knight 10-1 EW (SpBet) / Vivlos 20-1 EW (B365) HK Cup: Sungrazer 9-1 EW (crazy price at the time B365) Some fantastic races Sunday at Sha Tin, cannot wait... good luck with your bets.  |
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Some rain on Friday but nothing too significant, can’t see too much coming today or tomorrow. Temperature have dipped and it’s fairly chilly at 16 degrees now (was 28 at the start of the week).
There are some decent support races too tomorrow with imports making their HK debuts with the 4yo series in mind for the new year, looks like a minefield of a card so any winner will be a bonus! I’m looking to break even so I can go out after racing!! I think if I’m not up after the first 3 races it’ll be a bad day from a profit angle! Good luck |
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Got a feeling there could be better value in the HK Mile tomorrow morning, the HK punters will pile on Beauty Gen! I really should know by now to be been more patient with my bets.
 Age has caught up with him a bit this year but as it's his last race before retirement, I'm going to have a sentimental EW bet on my old pal Staphanos… he's finally got a good draw and doesn't mind sitting close to the pace, which could be an advantage if the pace ain't that slick.  |
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SlyBet just put up some weird prices for the HK Mile... Persian Knight 20-1! I've gone in again EW. Every horse is a double figure price apart from Beauty Gen who is 1/2.
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Markets are beginning to open up as Dinos points out - glad i waited.
I think its useful to use their HK tote prices as a guide throughout the next 12 hrs Eg: Salouen has drifted out to 33/1 with one UK book which is worrying , and the HK tote price is currently 43/1 https://bet.hkjc.com/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=EN&date=2018-12-09&venue=ST&raceno=4 |
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I wouldn't worry about the prices Roz... some of these bookies don't know if they are coming or going. The price fluctuations are something else and I forgot how big they can be for this meeting. At the end of the day it's great for punters who don't go with the obvious, there is amazing value in some of these races. I've cocked up with a couple of my bets but gained with others.
 I would be worried about Latrobe though, he has to pass the vets inspection tomorrow to run... foot issue! Hopefully he will be OK. |
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Thought I’d post all my selections.....
R1 - 2 is the obvious choice but will they try a different tactic and run him closer to the pace as he’s drawn 5 just to try? The 12 is worth a try ew as he’ll have to run the same way as before drawn 11 and the extra 200m will help. R2 - 7 R3 - 8 R4 - Wait to see how the track is running, I’m slowly starting to like Waldgeist despite the long season R5 - 2 R6 - 10 or 11 (depends on how the 10 is fitness wise so wait on Jenny’s opinion) R7 - maybe just watch, depends on the track R8 - Japanese, Deirdre being tipped by everyone R9 - 3 R10 - 7 (will be fav) or 10 ew could run a big race. Good luck all....I think it’s the hardest HKIR meeting I’ve known and this is my 11th year. Hopefully some winners and a sore head tomorrow. |
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The choices in the Vase for me are between 1, 5&12 (I’m on Pakistan Star as a Hedge I’m the Uk, as suspected he’s much shorter in HK, currently 3-1 fav)
The mile 2 and 13 if I have a bet) |
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Good luck lads,
my selections R1 - 5 SMART CHARADE R2 - 11 MASTER ALBERT R3 - 7 TIANCHI MONSTER R4 - Im already on Latrobe at 33s. but ive just taken 25/1 on Salouen , i just cant ignore him at that price. R5 - 4 BEAT THE CLOCK R6 - 9 STIMULATION R7 - NO BET R8 - 4 SEASONS BLOOM R9 - 8 KINGS SHIELD , 4 GOLD IN R10 - 1 CIRCUT HASSLER |
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Correction - Salouen is 33/1 - silly price
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Great pick in race 1 Roz.
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paid for my bets on the rest of the card - just thought the 7f would suit on last few runs
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I started to get a feeling today that the euros were going to flop in the Vase - all this whitewash talk eh
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I thought she had it then but the stamina just ebbed away near the line... fair play to Zac, he had Exultant in the perfect position off a slow pace and had enough stamina to fight back in the last few strides.
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I thought you had it too Dinos - so frustrating as Exultants has been slowly shortening in price in the euro markets .... but i just couldn't shake my unreasonable prejudice against the HK Runners, was as big as 14/1 just 12 hours ago
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Lys Gracieux likes coming 2nd in G1 races... 5th time now. Sums up my year, severe seconditis!
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you watching ATR , Dinos?
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I'm watching the HKIR cast online... trying my hardest not to wake anybody up.
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Ryan Moore is having a shocking year on the International races by his standards on previous years - hope he does it in this sprint or in the cup - i think he has only had international winners in japan is some lesser races ...i might be wrong.
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Accie unlucky there with DB Pin , nice place though at big odds
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Too much to do Roz but ran on very well. I thought DB Pin would run well, he was 28-1 with Slybet yesterday afternoon... kicking myself I didn't back him as well. Same 1, 2 as last year.
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interesting to see the value that can be obtained just 24hrs before the races - slybet prices were crazy for that short time yesterday
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The price changes were mad yesterday... got to remember to wait next year.
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what a freak BG is - totally dominant.
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He's a bit of a monster... happy to get another 2nd with Vivlos. Slightly disappointed with Persian Knight but he a wide trip all the way which didn't help. Nothing was beating Beauty Gen today, John Moore knows how to train milers.
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yeah, what price you get on vivlos?
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Backed her too early at 20-1 EW, so had to add a bit more when she hit 33-1.
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good luck with this Sungrazer - not that you need it , you've robbed them at 9/1 ew lol
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Hopefully he will run well... I would love to see Staphanos place again.
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wtf were they doing off the pace
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Odd race but yet again it shows you need to be on the pace at Sha Tin. Not a great way to finish.
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yeah, pace is slow up front then you have little chance off the pace
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