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impossible123
29 Jun 18 19:19
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
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The Derby winner and 3rd ie Masar and Roaring Lion respectively are in contention - the former needs to be supplemented; the former is 7/4 fav, the latter 11/4.

Masar has ducked the Irish Derby to run here. The main question would be will Masar be as effective over this 10f than 12f over Roaring Lion who was going seemingly the better of the two 2f out in the Derby? Poet's Word cannot be overlooked either with his ideal distance and ground to suit, I believe; latest win over Cracksman is kudos of the highest degree.

The rest running for a place at best if the above turn up.

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Replies: 49
By:
unclepuncle
When: 29 Jun 18 22:40
Poets Word already announced as a highly unlikely runner.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 29 Jun 18 22:50
I think both Gustav Klimt and Without Parole would be live contenders if they run - my hunch is that the former will run but the latter won't...
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 29 Jun 18 22:50
I think both Gustav Klimt and Without Parole would be live contenders if they run - my hunch is that the former will run but the latter won't...
By:
harry callaghan
When: 29 Jun 18 22:54

Masar has ducked the Irish Derby to run here.





he has not ducked the irish derby, it was stated after the derby this would be his probable target why on earth do you have to keep pizzing on ffs.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Jun 18 18:01
Too soon for Saxon Warrior, I believe,...the Juddmonte over 10f perhaps on 24th Aug. No more 12f for him, I firmly believe.
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Jul 18 15:25
As an owner of a Derby winner, if you had the choice to win the Eclipse or the Irish Derby after Epsom, you would pick the Eclipse every time.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Jul 18 17:06
Hard to see past the front two. Similar race set up to when Sea The Stars beat RIP Van Winkle.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Jul 18 16:03
Surprisingly Saxon Warrior is amongst the 10 still declared for this along with stablemate Rostropovich the runner-up of the Irish Derby who finished one place ahead of him. Not this weekend just a week after the Irish Derby, surely? Then again the two principals ie Masar and Roaring Lion finished behind him in the 2000G, and 24th Aug is a long way to wait for the Juddmonte.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jul 18 18:40
Despite holding a voucher for him here I'd rather he does not run given it was only a week ago, and a fairly hard race too in the Irish Derby. Maybe back down to 8f in The Sussex (a good chance too) prior to the Juddmonte; he's too good a horse to be messed about by connections who undoubtedly made the wrong decision to run last weekend.
By:
dunlaying
When: 03 Jul 18 20:14
I don't think Masar is given the credit he deserves . If he beats Roaring Lion again he can take him home .
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 03 Jul 18 20:41
he's too good a horse to be messed about by connections who undoubtedly made the wrong decision to run last weekend.

In what way was it the wrong decision?  The horse was odds-on to win the race, the conditions were perfect for him and he had every chance but was just not good enough on the day for whatever reason. If you are going to say he didn't stay then I think that is plainly nonsense.

I have watched the race numerous times and there is no way you can say he was beaten due to a lack of stamina, if anything it was a lack of speed inside the final 3 furlongs that cost him the race. The burst of speed that won him the Guineas was just not there when the rider asked him to quicken 3F out.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jul 18 23:36
Rhododendron and El Gran Senor both going ominously better than Enable and Secreto respectively in the Epsom Classic.

I understand Sax won the 2000G 1st out, but he could have beaten a mediocre bunch of 3 yr old milers eg Masar beaten by Happily in the Lagardere, and Gustav Klimt 2nd race back; Masar and Roaring Lion performed much better over a longer trip. Maybe the reverse is true with Sax; Sax could have walked past the leading two in the Irish Derby but did not - his tank was running on fumes (probably) why O'Brien immediately post race nominated the Juddmonte after a rest. Otherwise, why has he left Sax in the Eclipse? As a cover for Happily, the only horse who beat Masar in France?

Despite Appleby being bullish about Masar - he was the same about him prior to the 2000G similarly, Wild Illusion in the 1000G and Oaks - which he'd been proven wrong I believe Roaring Lion can beat him here. Similarly, Sax, if the Irish Derby had not taken its toll or connections had targeted this race instead he'd have a chance 2nd to none of winning here.

As always, horse racing is mainly about opinions nevertheless, I'll never back Sax over 12f ever again in a proper Gp1 race.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 04 Jul 18 00:05
He obviously wasn't running on fumes as he was staying on all the way to the line, similarly at Epsom despite being unbalanced on the track. If you were watching him without knowing his previous form you would not conclude that he wants a shorter trip and that 12 furlongs was the reason for his defeat, you would be more likely to conclude that he actually wants further.

He was always going to go to York or Leopardstown next whether he won or lost because that is O'Brien's usual route with his best middle distance 3yo as he doesn't tend to target the King George. I posted on another thread that I would expect him to go to York or Leopardstown next before being trained for the Arc, and O'Brien confirmed that he was always going to come down to 10f for his next race after the Irish Derby.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 04 Jul 18 00:17
Do you really think he was running on fumes 3 furlongs out when Moore asked him to quicken past the front two and he was unable to? Of course he wasn't, it was a turn of speed in a modestly run race that was lacking, not stamina.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jul 18 14:22
I think or am fairly certain Sax was coming to the end of his tether when he did not quicken past the other two despite looking going the best (I believe) when Moore asked him to go and win the race.

Make no mistake Sax was disappointing at the Curragh. It also convinced me 12f was not his forte, sedate pace of race or not. I'll not back Sax with a free bet over 12f against similar opponents in the two Derbies, but over 8f (good ground/quick pace) or 10f I'd especially against his own age.

Very, very, very unlikely after his defeat at the Curragh he'll be running over 12f again, I firmly believe, but a campaign over 10f mostly (possibly 8f too) in the future. And he might run if Happily does not on this saturday, I've a hunch.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 04 Jul 18 14:47
He wasn't coming to end of his tether after 9 furlongs in a sedately run race when asked to quicken. That is just very poor race-reading. He would have faded away if he was running on fumes as you seem to be trying to convince yourself into believing.

He was winning races over a mile in soft ground as a 2yo where he was very strong at the finish and rallying against a horse as good as Roaring Lion despite being hampered. The notion that he was at the end of his tether after 9 furlongs and unable to quicken past his rivals in a slowly run race is simply nonsense.

If he comes back to his best at York or Leopardstown and wins impressively, I suspect there is every chance he will be trained for the Arc as I believe he is capable of winning top races over 10 or 12 furlongs on his best form. Group 1 wins over all three distances would be very desirable for Coolmore and the horse's stallion prospects.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jul 18 15:28
I realise he beat Roaring Lion in the soft in the Racing Post as a 2yr old. If I'd said Sax was coming to the end of his tether at 9f marker my apology; he was going better or at least just as well as the other two at the weekend but unable to quicken past them to win the race when Moore asked him to go and win the race. Thus, convinced me he was not a Group 1 12f horse. I try not to dwell on things especially horse racing when I'm fairly certain what I thought had happened ie Sax could not quicken despite going the best when asked to.

I've backed Happily on her Lagardere form over Masar - Sax very unlikely a runner, in my opinion. The biggest danger is Roaring Lion who scored convincingly in the Dante and was a shorter price against Masar in the Derby and Craven; his trainer is also a plus factor against the Godolphin outfit.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 04 Jul 18 15:33
what a load of waffle written on this thread. masar will win.
By:
geoff m
When: 04 Jul 18 17:20
Saxon Warrior likely runner if works o.k in morning
By:
geoff m
When: 04 Jul 18 17:20
Saxon Warrior likely runner if works o.k in morning
By:
geoff m
When: 04 Jul 18 17:20
Saxon Warrior likely runner if works o.k in morning
By:
A_T
When: 04 Jul 18 19:06
strange decision if it happens given they could wait for the Juddmonte International or Irish Champion if they want to get a 10f win into him. maybe they think he's plateaued and will only fall further behind his peers as time goes on so want to get a win in now if possible.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 04 Jul 18 19:26
that will shake up the betting.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jul 18 19:27
If Sax does show up this weekend, and not runs well then The Sussex would be his next target, not Juddmonte, I believe, or possibly the St Leger. Have we been here before? Oh yes, US Army Ranger!
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jul 18 21:04
Someone could be jumping the gun, Sax has been matched at 4.1 but mainly 5 for a quite an amount. As such, Masar and Roaring Lion have eased about 0.5. What will Moore ride, Sax or Happily?
By:
impossible123
When: 05 Jul 18 11:43
Sax is running, but who's the rider? I hope it is Donnacha and not Moore or Heffernan.
Cell 3 Cell 4
By:
Figgis
When: 05 Jul 18 13:23
I have Masar about an average Derby winner and normally I'd say you need an above average Derby winner to win an Eclipse. However this is a very poor year and if he can repeat his Derby form that will probably be good enough looking at the recent form of the rest. I'm just not confident he'll still be in the same form after the early season he's had so no interest at the price. Roaring Lion was my Derby bet and even though he probably just ran out of stamina at the end I saw it as a disappointing effort, as I thought he would improve on his Guineas run and for me he was never beating Masar even at 10f. The older horses here are very moderate and look up against it with the wfa concession, but if there's a lack of pace that extra weight will be less of a factor. This is a race where I'm not sure any of the better runners are primed to give a peak performance so there is no result that would shock me. It's one of my favourite races but don't want to force a bet, so it's just one to watch this year.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 05 Jul 18 15:58
[b]If Sax does show up this weekend, and not runs well then The Sussex would be his next target, not Juddmonte, I believe, or possibly the St Leger. Have we been here before?





really funnyGrin and yes we have been here before
By:
deepingfox
When: 05 Jul 18 19:37
Donnacha and Saxon, the dream team.
By:
dunlaying
When: 06 Jul 18 10:48
I think Masar is the likely winner but Hawkbill appeals e/w at 33/1 . His run at Woodbine was on firm and over 12f so I don't see the going being too much of a concern . Speculative but not a forlorn hope .
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 06 Jul 18 17:37
very confident masar will win, we know this track suits him ideally, he can be ridden up there or he can be ridden for a turn of foot, he stays further so if he's anywhere near them in the final furlong he'll just outstay them up the hill.
By:
1st time poster
When: 06 Jul 18 17:48
masar out,they can sit at home and think about the irish derby they give away last week
By:
unclepuncle
When: 06 Jul 18 17:53
Bizarre - only 7 runners for e/w puproses now as well.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Jul 18 18:57
Will the dream team oblige tomorrow or will one of their stablemates surprise them? Poor Godolphin, the wasted supplementary fees, and the Irish Derby they forego.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Jul 18 11:10
The race make-up is very similar to last year when the three year olds with Classic form, Cliffs Of Moher, Barney Roy and Eminent,  dominated the market - but were beat by the older Ulysses. This seasons English classic form hasn’t exactly looked strong with the Guineas form turned around at Epsom and then the St James Palace and Irish Derby going to horses that dudn’t even contest the Guineas/Derby.
That means either Hawkbill or CoM might be the value, though neither has the profile of Ulysses, and for the sake of having a financial interest I have sided, to very small stakes, with CoM at 20/1.
By:
sageform
When: 07 Jul 18 11:17
Forest Ranger could be the best of the older horses but I fear it has been handed to Saxon Warrior. Great shame that Cracksman, Enable and Eminent are not there at their best and even Laurens might have made it interesting.
By:
A_T
When: 07 Jul 18 13:41
would not surprise me at all if this is SW's final race
By:
A_T
When: 07 Jul 18 13:43
worth going with the older horses here CoM maybe
By:
Platini
When: 07 Jul 18 13:58
Cliffs of Moher for me

20/1 too big.
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