figgis, how do you rate horses like sangarius, jash etc, surely the two year olds are the billy bollox this year?

Mystic, I always take an interest in how other clock followers see things. But maybe I also remember your reference to Haafhd's Washington Singer win as I remember having a good bet on him at short odds after that win and watching in disbelief at a bookies as he was beaten.

@Figgis : Haafhd was a bit of an enigma. Like you, I couldn't believe his subsequent form as a 2yo (too bad to be true). Then he bounced back the following Spring in the Craven & Guineas looking like the next incarnation of Nashwan, only to lose his form (again) after his first 2 runs of that season.

I confess that following the Guineas (t@rt that I am) my allegiance had switched to Azamour (who I thought was an eye-catcher in the Guineas). That wasn't a bad move in hindsight (apologies for ye olde after-timing), but it meant that come Champions Day I was firmly in the Azamour camp. I was there that day (having lumped on Azamour ante post). Watching the horses go to post I distinctly remember having 3 thoughts : 1) Oh dear, Azamour won't like this softer ground, 2) Wow, Haafhd looks great, 3) Wow, Chorist looks great. Of course, Haafhd trotted-up at 12/1 without a penny of mine burdening him, with Chorist 2nd & Azamour 3rd.

Haafhd's dad was also a bit of an enigma - clocking outrageous times & looking unbeatable as a 2yo, but far from that at 3.

I'm hoping for a TDH v Quorto Dewhurst clash. Given good ground, I would expect TDH's connections to swerve it, favouring the 'Futurity'. For me there's little between them on figures but Quorto has battled hard to beat a tough and more experienced rival. I've got Quorto running to a figure the same as Galileo Gold's Guineas and Masar's Craven. I expect another bit of improvement from him next start and he looks the most likely Guineas winner to me. Won at 6f at 2, stamina guaranteed, not that complicated (despite being a bit keen on Sunday). Of course, there's been nothing exceptional about his time, but what else is out there? Calyx is a cast iron non stayer in my book. So just a question of the prep now, and there's the worry you sometimes have with non-O'Brien colts. For me it would be the Dewhurst then straight to the Guineas, but he'll probably be taken to Dubai and might even run in a trial.

Assuming Ten Sovereigns comes over to Newbury on Saturday

Not entered for the Mill Reef although a few stablemates are.

Will run in the Middle Park on 29th (i'll be over for it) an ideal race and a Group 1.

Could also run in the Dewhurst in October, although very unlikely the Racing Post Trophy (i know it's renamed).

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/leading-guineas-hope-quorto-finished-for-season-as-connections-bypass-dewhurst/347272

I see this as a positive for Quorto, how do you see it Mystic Wind? Better he doesn't have a hard race after what couldn't have been an easy race last time. Looking at the last 10 year winners I think he could have a better chance than I thought. I have that latest win good enough to have taken two of the last ten and to dead heat with another, so that's a pretty decent chance. It's too easy to fall into the trap of trying to compare these Guineas prospects with the better winners but looking at the overall recent past gives a better picture. Will have to see if anything a bit special comes out of the races to come. I'm confident he has the beating of TDH though whose form looks to have levelled  off.

Figgis, I presume you're using some sort of sectional upgrade for Calyx, as it's hard to believe anyone could rate his overall ('final time') speed figures as anything above average so far. I accept his Coventry run was that of a top class colt but that's based on the way he dispatched the rivals on his side rather than the final time figure.

Thanks Figgis. My answer to that would be that there are plenty of years when the times stack up between the 5f and 6f races. I don't see Calyx staying in the Guineas and besides, I have the feeling we might not see him again.

I see Quorto more as a middle distance prospect for next season, given that his dam [Volume] finished a close third in the Irish Oaks and is a daughter of a half-sister to Leger runner-up Vertical Speed (by Arc winner Peintre Celebre out of 2m4f Cadran winner Victoire Bleue). OK, his National Stakes win is just about the best form on offer so far this season and it's possible that he may still have the speed next May to win a Guineas, but I'd rather bet on him needing in excess of a mile to show his best form next season. I was hugely impressed by Too Darn Hot in the Champagne Stakes and can't see him getting beaten in the Dewhurst if he reproduces that level form (even though the bare form of the Doncaster win is probably not an improvement on his earlier Solario victory): I was pleased to see that Mustashry, who won a Group 2 on the same Doncaster card as the Champagne Stakes in an identical winning time, won another Group 2 (the Joel Stakes) today in quite a fast time.

Really can't see Quorto lacking speed for a Guineas. If he reproduces his Curragh win I think he'd have at least been placed in any of the last 10 Guineas. Whether he'll train on is another matter with Godolphin's recent record. It's picked up a bit since Appleby but still very hit and miss. I wouldn't be surprised if TDH actually goes backwards on his next run. He's recorded almost identical back to back speed figures at full stretch. I'd have put him away for the season but we'll find out in the Dewhurst.

Quorto out,injured in Dubai.

ducked the Dewhurst,now out for
at least 1/2 the season.

I think this could be a penalty kick for Too Darn Hot, assuming he's as good this season as last; Quorto (2nd fav) is out thro' an injury, and Persian King (France's best colt) is only 2nd or 3rd choice for this race, according to connections.

been support for 10 sovs the last few days  ,any news ? . king yeah the fav will be hyped to the max he may well win but as you say never be afraid one horse etc,and with him taking a massive chunk out of the market it leaves some juicy prices on the rest .good luck !

Impossible sitting on both fences.  I think Jash will beat Ten Sovereigns, but..........

i dont like the way ten sovereigns moves . too stiff in the back , daisycutter style .

Very disappointed Fabre has said Persian King will not run in the 2,000 Guineas. I had him as nailed on ew, & some nice big prices AP. But I have noticed his price being chipped away following the big drift. Magna Grecia being backed in tells you everything about PK's chance in the race if he turned up - beat him cosily at Newmarket.

the fav will be hyped to the max

That's already happened. I was going to say he's the most hyped horse for years, but then I remembered people were saying Saxon Warrior could be the best horse they'd ever seen and the year before that Timeform were calling Air Force Blue the best for years. At least it's not a Coolmore horse this time.

Seems you can't read a piece in the racing press about TDH without Frankel being mentioned. It would be unfair to compare TDH to Frankel's full career but even as a 2yo Frankel had already run much faster than him. TDH the fastest horse since Frankel? He isn't even the fastest horse of his own generation. He may win the Guineas if the faster horses don't stay but he's not even close to potential superstar status for me.

I've only made up my mind that he's been massively overrated as anything more than a possible average Guineas winner.

TDH is unbeaten so there is an argument that we still may not have seen the best of him, but from the way the Dewhurst was run I can't see how he can be any better than the bare form, which is just about good enough to win an average Guineas, but no more than that. The Dewhurst reports made it sound like TDH was caught momentarily flat footed before accelerating and swooping past the leaders and winning easily. In my view this is nonsense. TDH was giving all he had but was outpaced by a Gp2 sprinter, Advertise, and it was only when Advertise was spent that TDH got on top, winning decisively in the end. Ten Sovereigns has already run faster than TDH and so has Calyx. The only department TDH has better credentials than those two is stamina, as he is guaranteed to get the mile whereas there is some doubt with TS and Calyx until proven.

Like all the others TDH still has to prove he's trained on. If he has trained on (I have some doubts that he will) he is sure to be involved in the finish and might even win, as it doesn't matter if there are other horses faster if they don't stay the trip. For me though, all the talk of him being a superstar is utter garbage.