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2019 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
2019 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
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*MG
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but everyone is raving about Persian king, and magna comes out as a very similar horse to him, no?
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i reckon madhmoon will be challenging for favoritism by raceday
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LR, I wasn't as sure about PK after the Autumn Stakes. I still say the bare form is nothing special but he looked all over the others and then either idled or his stamina was being stretched and the feeling was he could be better than the bare form. I reckon he improved on that in his trial this year, but that still leaves him with more to find to win an average Guineas. However if MG and PK faced each other again over a mile I'd expect PK to win comprehensively next time.
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I don't think magna grecia is a slowboat at all. look at his maiden win- no slowboat would power through them like he did at the two furlong pole.
I think he's a top class racehorse that's only going to come into his own as a three year old as he's a huge horse with loads of scope. no great fan of coolmore here but respect their track record. you can't knock it can you. I wouldn't have ten sovereigns in the same ball park as this fellow, personally. plus, his last few furlongs have been his strongest. and the guineas has traditionally won by the stouter stayers. so what's not to like, and how you can prefer the sprinter over this horse is frankly baffling, Figgis. |
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how you can prefer the sprinter over this horse is frankly baffling, Figgis
Because he's more than a stone faster  . Of course if he doesn't stay the mile then it won't matter how fast he is. Personally I couldn't even fancy MG for the Derby, as he's even too slow for that up to now. |
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Can't remotely agree he's been more than a stone faster Figgis. It's 6lb on my figures, and as you often say, it's a lot harder to earn it over a longer distance. I agree that TS is top class, but I also forgive MG his slightly underwhelming show in the VF due to having his 3rd run in 3 weeks. Much more to come from him and I can't see beyond him now.
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magna grecia 107 ten sovereigns 109 according to racing post top speed. not sure what clock you are using Figgis, a sand timer?
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LR, I learned a very long time ago that Topspeed is rubbish, useful that it's out there though
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BHA
Ten Sovereigns 120 Magna Carta 113 |
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It is falling into place nicely for madhmoon
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Frankie is riding Advertise instead of Set Pieces with Crowley riding the latter; AOB is likely to be doubly represented with Magna Grecia and Ten Sovereigns.
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Can't remotely agree he's been more than a stone faster Figgis. It's 6lb on my figures
Howellsy, I have another 10lbs on top of that. I don't know if TS will stay. I think he will but admit I have come around to that way of thinking partly through other dangers dropping out and Coolmore being willing to run him. However it's because of this that I've devoted more time to watching his races and do genuinely think he might stay. On ability alone he should be odds on in my book and if he does stay I expect MG will be 5 lengths+ behind. |
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Fascinating that Godolphin have supplemented Al Hilalee today. He is one of 2 I’ve backed for the Derby stablemate Line Of Duty being the other). Thought he looked pretty decent on his debut and has bags of scope. Didn’t think he’d have enough pace for a Guineas but he must have been showing them something in Meydan. Had a speculative few quid on him for this.
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I must admit looking at ten sovereigns just now, I think he'll stay as well. dosage index (I know what you're going to say, that's irrelevant) is quite high at over 2, but makfi was over 2 as well. he's also by seeking solace who stayed middle distances. the other thing in his favour as well re the distance is coolmore make very few mistakes when it comes to distance. very few horses they run fail to stay, or at least it seems so.
magnificent looking horse who has been impressive so far. the only negative I can find looking at the videos, is dare I saw it the middle park run was his least impressive run? outbattled the runner up and certainly didn't win that race like an out and out sprinter, but a big horse and he didn't look particularly happy on the track, for me. |
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Al Hilalee running in this now,it looks like.
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thing is with ten sovereigns... Figgis you say he's x amount of pounds clear of the rest and with respect I disagree... a horse x amount of pounds so much better than the rest wouldn't have scraped home from jash imo. I can't see him winning the guineas on the snaff, I think he'll stay but find a couple too good. just my opinion though.
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I think a supplementary fee of £30k for Al Hilalee is probably less than the bill for a week takeaway at Godolphin.
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LR, someone else on here once said they don't actually rate horses they rate races, and that's the way I look at it. If a winning performance is, say, 140 and the second horse runs to 138 it doesn't mean I necessarily rate the second horse a '138 horse'. Yes that is what it ran to that day but it doesn't mean I would always expect that type of run again. I reckon Ten Sovereigns is as good as his winning performance in the Middle Park, which is very good. Provided he trains on I expect him to be able to repeat it. As for Jash, he put in a great run that day but whether he will be able to repeat that I'm not so sure.
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I can't see him winning the guineas on the snaff, I think he'll stay but find a couple too good
Possibly something has been hiding its light under a bushel so far but on the evidence up to now the rest look very slow. If he stays it's extremely likely he'll win and win easily, that's when the hype will start and he'll probably go from underrated to overrated. |
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I would exclude Advertise as being slow but he doesn't look a miler to me.
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having just spent the last two hours watching vt of the contenders i concur with the supporters of magna grecia that he will win . Bit boring not to have seen something others have missed , but , the market seems about right . If you wanna bit of a outsider you could do worse than have a poke at momkin whom was not expected at 28-1 in the craven , but , ran skardu close whom was expected at 3-1 . best of luck with your selections
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Looked through the race tonight for a small, speculative bet at a big price and alighted on Urban Icon. Hannon has had two big priced Guineas winners in recent years who lost in trials - he seems to leave plenty to work on. He clearly thinks a lot of this horse (see his comment in RP stable tour); I think he ran well for such an inexperienced colt in the Greenham, beaten by Great Scot (very solid form at 2) and Mohaather (could be anything at 6-7 furlongs). I made it a good time and even in defeat, UI has arguably achieved as much as the likes of Skardu and Royal Marine. It might be that he was unfavoured by racing towards the stands' side of the group, and I can see a huge step forward on Saturday. The negatives are that perhaps he won't want it too fast and that Cityscape has no track record as a sire of class horses. Still, I'm having a tickle at 40-1.
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very picky i know howellsy , but , he leads on his near fore and i consider that a disadvantage in the guineas
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LR, someone else on here once said they don't actually rate horses they rate races, and that's the way I look at it.
ok. so what you are saying is it's a bit like a journeyman golfer finishing runner up to tiger in a major, and because of that some are erroneously rating the form through that, when tiger is by far the more likely to repeat his performance in another tournament. and i'd agree with that. agree with the opposition being poor, but not so convinced that ten sovereigns is that great himself, I guess we'll find out at the weekend. my feeling is with both guineas this year is that we have a strange feeling going in, it feels very low key. like the public just can't get excited about these races, and perhaps with good reason, as the horses just aren't very good. very wide open both races imo. |
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ok. so what you are saying is it's a bit like a journeyman golfer finishing runner up to tiger in a major, and because of that some are erroneously rating the form through that, when tiger is by far the more likely to repeat his performance in another tournament. and i'd agree with that.
Yes, pretty much sums it up. In other sports we witness plenty of events where a lesser opponent gives the top player/team a battle and we know they did it by playing very well, often much better than they would generally play. We accept the opponent played to a high standard even though we wouldn't expect them to repeat it. Whereas in racing there is a tendency to rubbish the form in similar circumstances. |
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Royal Marine is progressively weak in the market, and matched at 14 from 9 since sunday; reality setting in perhaps.
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Seems significant that Dettori is riding for Martyn Meade and not Gosden, perhaps less significant is a friend of mine who lives in Newmarket said he had heard good reports about Advertise. Therefore will have to have a little on the aforesaid but I think Ballydoyle hold all the aces and will back their front two in addition.
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I'm still totally baffled how so many people are looking at Magna Grecia and seeing likely Guineas winner. I mean yeah if he was 16/1 you could give him an outside shout as one who might outstay the rest, but 3/1-4/1? A joke.
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wtf figgis second to persian king when unexperienced only second run ever and held his form right to the line beaten a neck and then rp trophy winner on his third start and you want 16-1 ! youd want want 5-1 on a coin flip !
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if ya look on the magna grecia thread you will see some got around 25s on here and 16s when it was put up.
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second to persian king
So how good is Persian King? rp trophy winner I know last year's RPT winner went on to win the Guineas and one or two others from the past but it's not usually a race that's a massive pointer to the Guineas. Added to that he only scraped home by a head in a race where 3.5 lengths covered the first 6 despite there being a decent pace. Moderate form. |
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this race feels a lot like the supreme , whilst mullins liked klassical dream vice versa aob with magna grecia the relatively mute confidence says imo that if their is something special they dont think theirs is the very top drawer , but , might just be the best about
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The best 8f juvenile may run in the Irish 2000G; Magna Grecia can take this one though.
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if ya look on the magna grecia thread you will see some got around 25s on here and 16s when it was put up
As I said, I can see why some punters would be interested at those odds. I just can't see how anyone can look at him in the market now and think 7/2 what a great bet. |
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yes agree there i wouldnt be backing magna grecia at those odds ,but looking at whats left i wouldnt back anything at the prices , ten sovs looks as though he may have a bit more class but the trip is the unknown.
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Madhmoon is going to win this. Breeding screams 2000 Guineas winner for me. Will love the firm ground after a pipe opener on softish going and his romp over Broome reads well. Just hoping for a middle draw now.
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a horse x amount of pounds so much better than the rest wouldn't have scraped home from jash imo
Jash is a good horse rated 119 (won his previous race by 9L) but Ten Sovereigns was always holding him and the pair drew right away from the field. Bear in mind TS was a late debutant (due to injury) and had 3 races in 35 days, in fact only 7 days between the first two that must have taken a little out of him. He had won by 7L and 3.75L previously and this was the first time he had to 'race', it was a new experience for him and he was green when challenged. Also the first time he had run on good/firm. The time was good and comparing standards, almost on a par with the year older Wissahickon who won the Cambridgeshire 40 minutes later (abeit the latter carried 5 lb more). As stated before, i think he's good, and could be very good. I was a massive fan on my last lay thread and in my opinion was the fastest 2 year old over 6f. |
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Was Persian King not shorter than what Magna Grecia is at the moment? And he only just beat Magna Grecia on the latter's 2nd run of his career! Then, the latter beat Pheonix Of Spain who'd four previous runs one of which was a 2nd to Too Darn Hot 2 weeks later in the Racing Post.
Ten Sovereigns is the highest rated, but over 6f. Next best is Magna Grecia over 8f in a Gp 1 similarly, Madhmoon similar (Gp 3) and Royal Marine (Gp 1) who'd been disappointing since the Lagardere. From the above info I believe Magna Grecia who'd 3 races within a month two of which in a Gp 3 (2nd to Persian King) and Gp 1 (won) would have the most credential for further improvement, if trained. |
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the trip is the unknown
For me that is the only thing that stops him having an odds on chance against this field. If I knew for a fact he'd stay then I'd make him a 2/5 shot (not saying that's the price I'd take) and that is no exaggeration. Of course if he doesn't stay then he might as well be 100/1. I don't think anyone could be completely confident about his stamina one way or the other. His pedigree says more likely not to stay, although it definitely doesn't rule it out. From what I've seen of him on the track I'd say he's more likely to stay. A couple of years ago Coolmore were toying with the idea of running Caravaggio in the Guineas but decided against it. I don't know if they took the decision purely because of negatives about Caravaggio's stamina or because they knew they had a capable alternative in Churchill. This time they've taken the decision to run. So you'd think they either have more hopes about TS or they don't have too much confidence in MG. I admit that if there is no big market move for TS then it would have to be taken as a negative. I don't believe for one minute that those connected think MG is in the same ballpark as TS. According to O'Brien TS has wintered well physically. We don't know for sure how he's been in training but O'Brien sounded satisfied in his last interview. If he's been showing up as well as last year then the only thing they don't know for sure is if he'll stay. Unless they have huge stamina doubts (then why run him?) they will surely back this horse if he's still training well. |