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unclepuncle
24 Jun 18 10:05
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,408 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
With Royal Ascot over I thought it might be time to start a thread on next years first Classic.

Calyx is now a best price 6/1 following his very impressive Coventry Stakes win, but for all I respect his connections such flashy types rarely train on, and if they do they tend to be sprinters.
Think of Carravagio, Three Valleys, Dilum etc. Having said that the breeding on the dams side suggest a mile+ would be his trip next year so maybe he is just a freak. 
The two horses he beat at Ascot, Advertise and Sergei Prokofiev deserve respect but both are speedily bred and unlikely to want a mile next year.

Not sure anything else at Ascot looked a future Guineas winner for all that it was heartwarming when Arthur Kitt won the Chesham. To my eyes the horse to take out of that race for the near future (July meeting, Goodword, York etc) was the 4th horse Beyond Reason.

One horse that did leave a lasting impression on me last week ran at Newmarket on Friday evening.
Quorto, trained by Charlie Appleby, was well backed through the day against a well touted Stoute horse who had run very promisingly on it's debut, and he ran out a very impressive winner.

By Dubawi he is the first foal of Volume who was placed in both the English and Irish Oaks (beaten just half a length in the latter) so on breeding one would think 10-12f would be his trip but he looked very sharp on Friday and I'd expect some of the better 7f races would be on the agenda this season (maybe the Superlative Stakes at the July meeting next, or the Salario at sandwon which they won with Masar last year?).
My only note of caution is that I have been impressed with a few Godolphin first time out winners, especially on the Newmarket July course, down the years and they have never gone on to do much.

He's 33/1 with BetVic.

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Replies: 360
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 24 Jun 18 13:59
Unlike Carravagio who always looked like a sprinter to me, I think Calyx is a proper Guineas horse. He should get the mile next year with no problem.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Jun 18 16:45
^On breeding I totally agree and he couldn't be in better hands.
By:
sageform
When: 24 Jun 18 18:46
Calyx should improve a lot if they keep his had right. He raced with the choke out but still won well. Frankel and Kingman very similar types although Frankel always looked as if he would stay further.
By:
sageform
When: 24 Jun 18 18:47
*head not had.
By:
jamesp
When: 26 Jun 18 17:13
One couldn't help but be impressed by Calyx's win in the Coventry Stakes, but there must be some doubt about him getting a mile next season in the Guineas: he clearly possesses loads of pace (he had the race won well over a furlong out at Ascot) and he's quite speedily bred.

There was a similar discussion about the filly Fair Eva two years ago: her dam African Rose seemed to stay a slowly-run mile early in her career (as a juvenile and first time out as a three-year-old), yet she ended up winning a Group 1 over 6f as a three-year-old and thereafter was never asked to race beyond 7f. Fair Eva showed plenty of speed early in her juvenile career but didn't last home over 7f in the Rockfel later in the season and failed to get the trip in last year's Guineas (though there may have been an excuse for the latter performance, as she produced a dirty scope after the race).

African Rose's full sister Helleborine (the dam of Calyx) did manage to win over a mile as a juvenile, but that was in a very slowly run 4-runner race, and she appeared not to stay the mile when subsequently beaten in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac and the French Guineas: she was a strong-travelling type with plenty of speed and was an impressive winner over 6f on her debut.

Calyx should certainly get 7 furlongs, but a mile in top company could stretch his stamina. There's enough of a doubt, anyway, to make 6/1 at this stage look decidedly unattractive.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 26 Jun 18 19:05
Helleborine comes from a middle distance family. I would be surprised if Calyx is not a miler next season on pedigree and on what I have seen of him on the racecourse so far.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Jun 18 15:40
Another dark horse to throw in is the Martyn Meade trained Confiding.
As with Advertise (2nd to Calyx at Ascot)  he was an impressive first time out winner of a Newbury maiden and the 4th, 5th and 7th have all won next time out. I await his next race with interest.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 30 Jun 18 16:01
^ The 8th horse won nicely at Newmarket today.
Wish I could get a juicy price on Confiding.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 05 Jul 18 19:14
^The runner up won at Newbury tonight.Happy
By:
sageform
When: 06 Jul 18 11:09
Could be worth watching the Sandown maidens for clues today.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 06 Jul 18 17:00
^ nice debut from King Of Comedy for Gosden.
By:
sageform
When: 07 Jul 18 07:08
Yes, he looked very green but quickened up well. Kingman already has a few exciting prospects.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 09 Jul 18 17:29
The 3rd horse from Confiding’s maiden has just won at Windsor.

Confiding has an entry in the July Stakes at New’Mkt on Thursday, though his stable companion Advertise is also entered and is a warm favourite.
By:
sageform
When: 12 Jul 18 12:40
Advertise runs but has Legends of War to beat.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 14 Jul 18 12:13
OP wasn’t bad was it.Cool
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 27 Jul 18 09:35
Quorto 25-1 b365 for the Derby looks fair considering he's bred for it.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Jul 18 14:36
To my eyes the horse to take out of that race for the near future (July meeting, Goodword, York etc) was the 4th horse Beyond Reason.

Beyond Reason won a Group 3 in France at 5/1 today.Cool
By:
unclepuncle
When: 29 Jul 18 18:29
Very competitive renewal of the Vintage Stakes coming up on Tuesday.
Could be plenty of pace on so hopefully Confiding can swoop late.

I’m also a big fan of Drogon and if he is allowed an easy time of it up front he could be hard to peg back.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 31 Jul 18 13:49
Considering how weak he was in the market Confiding ran OK. Can’t have the winner as a Guineas horse.

But with the news that Calyx misses the rest of the season ( and who will be surprised if he never runs again) I have had my first bet on the Guineas on Gosdens King Of Comedy at 33/1 with.B365. His maiden is working out nicely enough and he looked to have any amount of improvement in him. Not sure where he runs next - Solario maybe?
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 31 Jul 18 19:49
Didn't you bet Quorto after opening post?
By:
unclepuncle
When: 31 Jul 18 20:16
No - my opening post on him, and the ones on Confiding were just for information purposes.Grin

The 33/1 on Quorto was tempting but I treat Newmarket July course form a bit warily.And I’d have wanted at least 50/1 on Confiding to tempt me - I did put a bet up on here for a couple of weeks but it was never matched.

I did back Beyond Reason on Saturday though.Cool
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 17 Aug 18 10:02
Quorto for me at this stage.

I backed both Dubawi and Kingman ante post at double-figure prices to win their respective Guineas. Despite the ultimate disappointments on that front, it's great to see their progeny staking claims for next year's Guineas.

My modus operandi revolves around speed ratings. On my clock, the only 2yo colts to have posted speed figures worthy of Guineas consideration so far have been Calyx, Advertise and Quorto.

To my eye, Calyx is a precocious 2yo and is far from certain to make up into top-class 3yo miler. John Gosden does not usually rush his better 2yo's, and running in the Coventry just 10 days after winning his maiden didn't strike me as a strategy he'd normally deploy with a potential classic winner. Single-figure odds about a horse on the injured list make no appeal.

Advertise is a likeable sort. He 'won' the race on the far side in the Coventry and followed up to win the July Stakes in taking style from lesser horses. Despite winning a Group 1, I found his victory in the Phoenix slightly under-whelming. Connections say he wants 7f, but to my eye that performance raised doubts that this son of Showcasing will stay much further.

Quorto is a couple of pounds behind the other 2 on my ratings, but he could not have been more impressive in his 2 races to date. His maiden was a slowly-run affair, but he quickened up in the style of a good horse. He did the same in the Superlative (much faster race) and looks certain to get a mile at 3. The strength in the market for the Superlative was encouraging, as have been the subsequent comments by connections. It looks as though he's going to be taking the 'Dubawi route' (maiden, Superlative, National). He's proven on fast ground but being by Dubawi I wouldn't be worried about running on softer (I suspect he'll appreciate a bit of cut). I also don't see him as a Derby horse - it seems significant that he has an entry in the Dewhurst but not the Royal Lodge.

At 14/1 I thinks there's still a bit of value in his price at this stage (I'd have him as favourite personally).

1pt Quorto @ 14/1
By:
gpz6316
When: 20 Aug 18 21:18
i,m sure you know uncle , but , you didnt mention it. first foals tend to be small and not train on .no idea on the biology except to say its well known in breeding circles that first foals are small and are good at 2yo , but , fail to develop .
By:
gpz6316
When: 20 Aug 18 21:21
sacred life would fall into the catergory
By:
unclepuncle
When: 20 Aug 18 21:33
Can’t say that aspect of his breeding would put me off Quorto, though as I haven’t backed him I hope you’re right.Devil

King Of Comedy’s Sandown form has had a couple of boosts in the last few days and I’m hoping it gets a massive one in the Acomb on Wednesday.Cool
By:
gpz6316
When: 20 Aug 18 21:43
i wouldn't try to put you off or anyone else , i,m just  stating there is a issue
By:
unclepuncle
When: 22 Aug 18 17:31
As predicted in my Acomb thread another massive boost to King Of Comedy's Sandown form today.Cool

I'm quite surprised he is still available at 33/1.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 23 Aug 18 12:21
33's would seem big now,ran very green in that Sandown race, I'll follow your advice with this one.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 15 Sep 18 15:41
Lovely performance from Too Darn Hot and with no news about King Of Comedy I have to assume that TDH will be Gosden’s Guineas horse - sorry.

Mahdmoon was also impressive at Leopardstown and I’d love it if Keven Prendegast brought him over for the Dewhurst.
By:
blackbarn
When: 15 Sep 18 16:25
MadhmoonCool
By:
jamesp
When: 15 Sep 18 16:43
Hugely impressed by Too Darn Hot in the Gr.2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster today. Went through the gears off a fast pace and won a competitive renewal quite comfortably, staying on strongly in the latter stages. A strongly run mile will suit him even better. The winning time (exactly the same time as the Gr.2 Park Stakes on the same card won by the 112-rated 5-year-old Mustashry) suggests he doesn't need to find much more improvement to win an average Guineas. 5/1 looks a fair price.

Madhmoon was impressive at Leopardstown, but the form doesn't look anywhere near as good as the Doncaster form, if the running of Broome is anything to go by (Broome was beaten nearly 7 lengths by the Champagne runner-up Phoenix Of Spain at York previously).
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 16 Sep 18 15:52
Impressive performance by Quorto today, looked every inch a Guineas horse. Will be interesting to see if they pull stumps for the season or go to the Dewhurst. Couldn't understand double-figure quotes post race, although they've pretty much gone now - I till think he should be Guineas fav.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 16 Sep 18 17:24
It was a good professional performance but not worthy of making him favourite ahead of TDH imo. The runner up is clearly very decent but is more of a Derby horse and needs the mile already.
Would be great if TDH and Quorto they met in the Dewhurst but maybe one of them will go to France or to the Racing Post Trophy.
Be even better if King Of Comedy beats them both.Laugh
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 18 18:47
Like Mystic Wind I have Quorto better than Too Darn Hot. I have him a couple of pounds higher so I still think he'll need to improve, unless next year's Guineas is as crap as this year's was. I have Too Darn Hot's form flatlining though whereas Quorto has improved significantly with each start and he might do so again. You could argue he had a slightly harder race but he was up against a better opponent. It is the opponent that I would take from the race as I thought Anthony Van Dyck ran an excellent Derby trial.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 16 Sep 18 19:14
I fully understand why people look at AVD as more of a Derby type, he looks as though he'll stay a lot further. The problem I have with him in this regard concerns his breeding. His dam (Believe 'N' Succeed) was lightly raced (no guidance there) but she's by a sprinter and her only other progeny of note (Bounding) was also a sprinter - albeit the result of a union with a speedier sire than Galileo. If Galileo can impart sufficient stamina then he's certainly in the mix.

Regardless of the above, I do consider AVD a genuine Group 1 horse and believe Quorto's performance today ought to be judged in that context.

Opinions, opinions!
By:
deepingfox
When: 16 Sep 18 19:22
Unhappy to regard QUORTO as a Derby candidate too, given his dam's breeding and two 3rds in the English and Irish Oaks (beaten 2 necks in the latter). If Masar was a Guineas candidate who then Godolphin wanted to try the Derby, then QUORTRO is absolutely likely to do this too. 16s for the Derby is massive.
By:
deepingfox
When: 16 Sep 18 19:22
Unhappy to regard QUORTO as a Derby candidate too, given his dam's breeding and two 3rds in the English and Irish Oaks (beaten 2 necks in the latter). If Masar was a Guineas candidate who then Godolphin wanted to try the Derby, then QUORTRO is absolutely likely to do this too. 16s for the Derby is massive.
By:
deepingfox
When: 16 Sep 18 19:24
I'm Happy (not unhappy(as below). Derby odds are tasty.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Sep 18 19:33
Mystic Wind, regarding Quorto, I remember Haafhd being a horse you backed ante post after his Washington Singer win. Just wondering how you rate Quorto compared to him as a 2yo? I had Haafhd as a moderate Guineas winner but have Quorto 4lbs behind him.
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