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The Eclipse Stakes (sat 8th July)

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Replies: 185
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jul 17 16:10
It is based on the fact he won the Gordon Stakes.

So narrowly beating a horse who had just been beaten in 2 handicaps and was then subsequently tailed off in a Gr2 is enough evidence.

If you are happy with that it is OK with me. It doesn't convince me but then that is up to me.

I will add that your opinion of Goodwood, a sharp, undulating track when compared with Ascot which is uphill for the final mile and of a galloping nature is strange but expected.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 16:23
It doesn't convince me but then that is up to me.

Exactly, you don't need to agree, but agree or not it's a plausible conclusion.

I will add that your opinion of Goodwood, a sharp, undulating track when compared with Ascot which is uphill for the final mile and of a galloping nature is strange but expected

My reasoning is based on the fact that if a trip takes around 6 seconds (equates to almost half a furlong) longer to run on one course than it does on another then it has to be a stiffer track. I know you don't believe in times and prefer to rely on vague descriptions such as 'sharp, undulating' and 'uphill for the final mile', even though there are no measurements provided of precisely how steep the uphill section is. That is up to you.

You still haven't answered why Highland Reel is better at 10f.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 16:40
Incidentally, Ascot's 11f 211y trip is listed as start height 88y, finish height 88y. Goodwood's 11f 218y is listed as start height 150y, finish height 159y.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 10 Jul 17 17:49
Brig - pack your suitcase and go off and enjoy your hols. And just pray to God that Ulysses doesn't win the KG.Laugh
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jul 17 18:27
Thanks Uncle. Just got back front the dentist. Nothing done thank goodness.

The only reason I wouldn't want Ulysses to win the KG is because I won't be backing him. And I doubt Figgis will be backing him either.

I am actually not going for about 2 weeks then staying a month so will also miss Goodwood which is a shame but I don't think I will miss anything betting wise. Hopefully not.

I don't know how many times you have walked Ascot and Goodwood racetracks Figgis. Probably the same number as you have walked Epsom. Thank goodness I am not relying on you to give me course details. That is all I can say. If you think a mile climb without a break is easier than a downhill 4 furlong finish then good for you. You were wrong about Epsom and you are wrong about Goodwood. The reason Goodwood takes longer to run is because of it's undulating nature and sharp turns so the strong galloping horse is unable to stretch out properly and get into a rhythm. Ascot has a steady downhill to Swinley Bottom then a gradual rise for about a mile with a level half furlong at the end. It is completely different to Goodwood and no comparison. If the horse doesn't get a breather in at Swinley Bottom then it will need at least one before they turn in that is why the times are faster whereas at Goodwood with it's sharp turns and undulations it is not possible to gallop flat out so pulls have to be taken where breater's can be obtained slowing down the times in the process.
It has nothing at all to do with a stiffer or easier track.
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jul 17 18:40
It is the nature of these courses and the lie of the land that is important and that is why the last mile at Ascot takes longer to run than the last mile at Goodwood.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 18:53
And I doubt Figgis will be backing him either

You were wrong about Epsom

Only in your head. You provided no proof to the contrary, whereas kincsem did post details that proved Epsom is indeed a stiff 12f.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 19:08
If you think a mile climb without a break is easier than a downhill 4 furlong finish then good for you

But that's exactly what you were saying about Epsom. The course climbs before the descent into the straight. The start height at Epsom is 110y, despite the descent the finish height is 125y. They've climbed 15y from start to finish. So the uphill part of the course easily outweighs the downhill. You seem to think it doesn't matter if you're climbing higher for most of the race as long as you face a downhill straight, which is absurd.
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jul 17 19:13
Epsom racetrack is difficult because of the lie in the land but stamina wise it is not stiff. The start is the equivalent of over four two storey houses stacked one on top of the other higher than the finish with the majority of the racecourse downhill and on the turn. Horses cannot easily or comfortably gallop flat out downhill that is why the times are slower not because the course is stiffer. I suggest you take a racecourse tour.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 19:17
Horses cannot easily or comfortably gallop flat out downhill that is why the times are slower

Are you really going there again? Okay if horses cannot comfortably gallop downhill and this leads to slow times then why is the Epsom 5f the fastest 5f around with the fastest times?
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jul 17 19:38
Have you seen the downhill at Epsom before the home straight Figgis. You must have done. A gradual downhill as shown in the home straight is a completely different ball game and even by the times it is not extreme. That is the wrong tree you are barking up. If you cannot see the difference goodness knows.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 19:43
Have you seen the downhill at Epsom before the home straight Figgis. You must have done. A gradual downhill as shown in the home straight is a completely different ball game and even by the times it is not extreme

So you're saying that in spite of them running the last 4 furlongs at Epsom on the quickest track in the country, the downhill turn not only negates the advantage of those fast last 4 furlongs but it actually costs the horses to slow down so much that in effect they lose half a furlong in times compared to Ascot?
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jul 17 19:54
Have you ever seen the course at Epsom. Do you think the final furlong is downhill? Wakey wakey.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 20:03
Have you ever seen the course at Epsom. Do you think the final furlong is downhill? Wakey wakey.

Does this have any relevance? We've already established it's the fastest 5f in the country. So the last 1f is partly uphill but only the last few yards leading to the post, what difference whatsoever does that make to your argument that Epsom is an easy 12f?
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jul 17 20:20
I seem to remember you telling me Goodwood was stiffer than Ascot because there was a NINE YARD difference in their respective heights. Well there is nearly a THIRTY YARD difference at Epsom from start to finish so if nine yards more makes it stiffer then it goes without saying that thirty yards less makes it the opposite.
You can argue all night. You are wrong and you will always be wrong. You would argue it's dark outside and then try to prove it. Go to Epsom and find out I fon't see why I should waste any more of my time trying to educate you. I'm off.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 20:23
Well there is nearly a THIRTY YARD difference at Epsom from start to finish so if nine yards more makes it stiffer then it goes without saying that thirty yards less makes it the opposite.

The Epsom finish is HIGHER than the start. Go and have a lie down brigust Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Jul 17 20:27
brigust...do not bother with anyone constantly moving the goalpost of a discussion/debate to suit. It's neither time well spent, informative nor conducive for others.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 20:32
And along comes Bungle Happy
By:
A_T
When: 10 Jul 17 21:13
is Ulysses a 12f horse?

No. Brigust's opinion

Yes. Already won a 12f race. By a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner. His trainer (who knows a bit about these things) thinks he will.

You decide.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Jul 17 21:28
A_T, I'm still curious as to how Highland Reel can be considered a 10f horse that only gets 12f when everything goes his way. I mean I know that can happen sometimes, but with this horse I see no suspicion of that in what he's done on the track.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 11 Jul 17 00:47
I hope Ulysses does go for the King George. I think he would be a very good each way bet on the day if the current prices are still available. Held up and delivered as late as possible over a fast run 12 furlongs would suit in my view.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 11 Jul 17 08:22
Figgis 10 Jul 17 20:32 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 6,940 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
And along comes Bungle Happy


LaughLaugh
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Jul 17 10:14
I nearly missed my table last night discussing the nuances of racecourses with some who simply do not understand equine athletics. They may know how to rate a race and we have all seen how good ratings are, and they may think they know about timing a race, and we all know what a chocolate teapot that is but they have not one clue about the physical requirements of the horse's whose ratings and times they study. How often a horse breathes in a race, how it will stride out on the track the best positions to obtain in the race relative to the racecourse etc. It is simply not just about ratings and times.

Henry Candy thought Limato would be a miler. On his form at a mile he could have won a dodgy mile race somewhere even at Gr3 level and if he got lucky maybe at Gr1 level but that doesn't make him a miler.

The three Highland Reel races in question, the 2016 King George the review stated Moore sent Highland Reel into the lead from the start and the favourite set a steady early pace from Erupt

In the 2017 Coronation Cup the review stated Allowed an easy lead in the early stages of the Group One with Godolphin pair Hawkbill and Prize Money content to track Ryan Moore, the five-year-old travelled smoothly through the early stages of the mile and a half contest.

In the 2016 Breeders Cup the review stated 'Made all, set modest tempo until quickened around 7 lengths clear passing halfway, ridden over 2f out, kept on well, unchallenged, fine ride.

And in the Arc where the draw played a crucial part and where the result was not complimentary to many of the riders who sat out the back, the review stated Tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, went 2nd 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner

If you are considering backing Highland Reel in the King George this year you will want to hope he gets an easy untroubled lead, thankfully he is trained by AOB so I cannot see spoilers running, and that the ground is on the fast side. Added to that this time there may be another 10f horse in the race in the shape of Ulysses if he is lucky enough to be allowed a soft early lead he will have to watch out for him.
Will I be taking 7/4 about Highland Reel anytime soon? No because in my opinion he has certain requirements that cannot be guaranteed.
Will I be backing Ulysses at 7/1 anytime soon. I backed him in the Eclipse at 8/1 so the answer is no. I have no evidence he will get the 12f and again any chance he may have could be dependent on the ground.

On the ante post front I have wanted to take on HR without much success yet. I had a nice bet on Enable who looks like running on Saturday, I had a nice bet on Cracksman who looks like going to York, I had a small bet on OoSG who looks like going to Goodwood so all I have left is a nice bet on Jack Hobbs at 12s and a small bet on CoM at 40s and 33s. Combined they make a much better bet than HR is. I hope I get to see the race on holiday.

I don't think there is anything more I cam add to the above but I will be back in about 6 weeks time to review my position and see how everyone else has done. Good luck and happy punting.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 17 13:23
In the 2017 Coronation Cup the review stated Allowed an easy lead in the early stages of the Group One with Godolphin pair Hawkbill and Prize Money content to track Ryan Moore, the five-year-old travelled smoothly through the early stages of the mile and a half contest.

This is the kind of thing repeated by UK idiots trying to adapt Americanisms to our racing without understanding what they are talking about. Just because a horse has an uncontested lead it does not make it an 'easy lead'. A horse can be going a decent pace on its own in front without having to be pressed for the lead. If anyone would've wanted to go faster than a sensible early pace I'm sure Moore would've been happy to sit just off it and let his horse go its own pace. It has been published that Highland Reel covered the first 5f in 70.38, Enable covered it in 70.53 on the same day. Is anyone trying to say Enable only stayed 12f because she went slow early? Utter bollocks.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 17 13:35
And in the Arc where the draw played a crucial part and where the result was not complimentary to many of the riders who sat out the back, the review stated Tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, went 2nd 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner

And this is total rubbish. The Arc was run at a fast pace, those held up had every chance and those staying on from the back were actually slowing down, just less so than those who had been nearer the good pace, as you'd expect.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Jul 17 13:59
And in the Arc where the draw played a crucial part and where the result was not complimentary to many of the riders who sat out the back, the review stated Tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, went 2nd 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner

Not too dissimilar from the comments for Highland Reel's run in the International at York last year, which like the Arc was run at a fast pace

Led 1f, tracked leaders, upsides 3f out, kept on same pace last 150yds

Maybe HR doesn't even get 10f when run at a fast pace? Grin
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