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Messy race and CoM clearly had his chance compromised so perhaps give him another chance.
I said Ulysses went through the PoW like best horse and was the each way bet. He travels so well but still got there too soon so while many will think Barney would beat him next time in the Juddmonte I wouldn't be so sure. I still feel Eminent is crying out for some proper cut in the ground and at least he will be a decent price if and when he does get it. |
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Brig .. are you keeping the faith in Cracksman Voltigeur then all in for the Leger? I'm loading up.
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Well I came out of the race up but not sure it is deserved, thanks F. I think with a bit of rain Jack Hobbs would have won that but who knows?
What on earth was the jockey on Taj Mahal doing? I would have thought he would have ensured a strong pace but just sat on the outside going steady and in the end his stable companion CoM got murdered. Surely the pace didn't suit CoM must run him at Ascot now he had no race today? Hi loto. I waited to see what happened here just in case the KG still looked a possible. I've just taken a nice bit of the 11/4 available think that is a reasonable price. |
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Not sure about the Leger though. Wasn't sure he needed 12f so I will go for the GV first and then watch the Leger.
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Cheers Figgis - nice to get a winner but have to say was disappointed in the Derby runners in principle. I thought you were being unduly pessimistic about the pair but maybe hard races are already catching up with them.
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Yes Howellsy, impossible to say for sure how much the interference affected COM but can't say I saw much to take encouragement from. I think it's now fairly safe to say they're crap
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Decent run from Barney Roy though. I was wrong about the hard race possibly affecting him last time but right about him staying. He's a bit below top class as really a true Gp1 3yo should be beating all but the great older horses on these terms. I think the yard chose the right race for him though and it almost paid off. Think things might get a bit difficult for him from here as not only has he had another tough race but the weight allowance decreases so he'll probably need to improve a bit again unless his future Gp1 races are all weak.
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Barney Roy has only had 5 races and it is a little over 9 months since he made his racecourse debut so I can still seem him improving.
I doubt they'll go for the Sussex Stakes now though given he did n't appear overly comfortable with the dip at Newmarket and he definitely was n't found wanting for stamina today, the first two pulled nicely clear. I'm not sure Godolphin would want to run him against Ribchester either. It may sound a bit daft but I'd consider a pair of blinkers for the winner, he looked like he thought he'd done enough at the end having travelled through the race like the best horse to my eye. Juddmonte surely the target for Barney Roy now - but I agree that's shaping up like a tougher race than today and he'd need to improve to have a winning chance. |
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Coolmore will probably regret having only one other a pacemaker that didn't do a very good job - another couple of runners might have provided Churchill-style "cover" for CoM and prevented the attempted excursion over the rail. Jury out on CoM. Eminent was awful pulled from the start and backers quickly knew their fate - can forget him now IMO.
I would put the winner in the bottom 50% of Eclipse winners but not amongst the very worst. |
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Incidentally first blood to the older horses over the 3yos. Hard to see where this generation are going to win the big G1s against their elders - especially if Almanzor and Minding come back sound.
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Figgis, you might be right about Barney but I can't see why he won't be ready to run a big race at York, a race that might just suit him ideally.
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What a confusing result. I first thought the start and early pace and the fast ground suited the miler types but the third horse is not necessarily a miler. Stoutes claim that Ulysses is potentially a 12f horse I think is wrong, we will see. I think the Derby horses were inconvenienced by the fast ground and the slow early pace. I think Barney Roy will get a strongly run 10f because he led just past the line and was not stopping. CoM's best form, apparently, was making the running on yielding ground. I thought Eminent would have gone forward but was given a strange ride having been strangled for the first 2 furlongs. RM wasn't hard on CoM at all because he knew he couldn't go the pace at the end on that ground. The last two turning in finished wide and filled 1st and 3rd places. The 2nd horse also challenged wide. As I said a confusing result.
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Having watched the race a few times I wouldn't mind betting the instructions to Taj Mahal's jockey were 'do not let Eminent have an easy lead' and that may be why he sat wide while those inside him didn't want to go on which was odd because they think TM stays 12f. Rumours were that Eminent would stride on thus if he was taken on, harried by TM, it would jeopardise his chances and also ensure a good pace for CoM. For some reason SDS strangled Eminent early and reined back behind TM. Leaving Taj Mahal's jockey to either let the pace drop even further or to go on. The tactics on Eminent were odd because off a steady pace he couldn't beat Barney Roy.
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I wouldn't give up on Eminent just yet, he could be the type of horse that needs a lengthy absence to show his best. I'm not convinced that he needs softer ground either. Proberley they September stakes at Kempton would be his best chance of a decent prize. Will be a better 4yo.
As for the race, it was upto scratch. A very good finishing time, with 2 very good horses putting 3 lengths between them and the 3rd. Of the 2, I felt Barney Roy has had the harder race, was already at work when Ulysses came cantering by him, but fair credit to him for fighting back. Ulysses reminds me of the od forum favourite, Harchibald...immense talent but needs to be produced on the line. All eyes on the International now, which is shaping up to be the race of the season, though I'd still expect Ulysses to finish ahead of Barney Roy and throw in the exciting and progressive filly Nezmaah and we've got a classic to look forward to. Atm, I'm still not convinced by he 3yos, but Caravaggio does look top notch and wouldn't look out of place in any previous July cup and Churchill, who's 3rd group 1 in 6 weeks was proberley his undoing at ascot. |
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no doubt there's a race for emiment somewhere - but not at G1 level - 3 strikes and you're out
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Ulysses was a worthy winner however, I cannot believe this was a top notch form despite the winning time; Ulysses has a tendency to stop once hitting the front, and the ground was probably quicker than officially recognised as the day progressed, I believe.
CoM and/or Eminent could be extremely expensive to follow at this distance, and I'd not be surprised if Eminent is dropped back to 8f after this and the Epsom Derby. I do not think these field will worry either Almanzor and/or Highland Reel given similar conditions in the Juddmonte. |
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I have Ulysses in the lower range for a 10f Gp1 but even though in the lower range he's definitely a Gp1 horse. I believe Stoute is right that his future is over 12f and if he were mine and comes out of the race well I'd have no hesitation in aiming him at the King George. In my view a performance that might be seen as a lower range performance over 10f translates to an average level performance over 12f as the longer distance races usually don't require quite the same speed to win. I have Ulysses on the same mark as Stoute's Conduit who went on to win the King George. If Ulysses can replicate his Eclipse form over 12f, and I see no reason why he shouldn't, he'll take a lot of beating. The only possible danger being Highland Reel, and while that horse will be no pushover if recovering from his latest efforts I'd just give Ulysses the edge.
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so it proved that the best form on offer in the race was the 1 1/4 length 3rd behind highland reel, although matched on ratings with
decorated knight in this race, the winner had the better potential for improvement as a 4yo, having gone up to 119 from 116 for its last race. ive lost count of the times on this forum that highland reel has been mentioned as not being a very good horse. well done winners. |
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Should have said the only possible danger assuming Enable doesn't run, and if the Irish Oaks is still a firm target she'd have to be unlikely to turn up at Ascot.
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Eminent's connections got what they deserved. They seem to suffer from 'little man' syndrom, enjoying their 5 minutes in the spotlight and making unnecessary jockey changes and overly bullish noises about the horse - reminds me of David Bridgwater.
![]() He has won first time out both seasons so clearly goes well fresh so if he were mine he wouldn't run again until at least September, and then at a lower level to see if he actually still possess the inclination to win. I do feel from his action he would like some cut (or ease) as well so will see how it goes and at least he should be a very big price in the top races (QEII maybe?) - if he isn't I won't be backing him. |
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I have to disagree F. His 12f form is not good, he had a couple of bumps in the Derby but was beaten half the track mostly in the last 2 furlongs. He showed a lot of speed in the Eclipse on fast ground and he showed similar speed in the PoW before emptying. I don't think 12f is his bag at all. Unless he is showing something at home he isn't showing on the racetrack and I cannot see them galloping 12f at home at all.
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He was a very inexperienced horse going into the Derby. His maiden win while promising didn't really amount to much. In the Derby he was already under pressure before the 10f mark so no surprise that he faded and it was the same story in America. He had potential for big improvement this year just like so many Stoute older horses have in the past. The Gordon Richards Stakes win was again promising but didn't really reveal how much he had improved as it was slowly run. The POW was another slowly run race and while a quicker run race probably would've shown him to better effect, in the light of yesterday's win in a faster run race it's stretching credibility to say he got done for stamina in the POW, as even Decorated Knight got back up against him. I've always said it's ridiculous to judge a horse's form as though it's a straight line on a graph. Horses have peaks and troughs and in my opinion Ulysses is currently in the form of his life, 12f will be no problem against similar opposition.
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You could be right F, that turn of foot if he did get the trip would be useful. He is bred to get it but I think he won't. His Derby form with Deauville stacks up as being not good enough, he only hung on by his fingertips yesterday and he beat Dark Encounter in third, the rest had possible excuses. Be interesting to see but not for me.
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His Derby form with Deauville stacks up as being not good enough
Are you seriously suggesting his Derby run is a representation of his current form? |
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Well the Derby form and Gordon Richards form is very similar and if the bumps knocked a couple of lengths out of him they would be the same.
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he beat Dark Encounter in third
As for Dark Encounter, he certainly put up a far better performance than I expected. However, the final time was good, most of the other runners ran to a mark I had them on before, and he was running on past beaten horses. It was a level that he will probably never be able to repeat again. Frontiersman put up a similar run in the Coronation Cup and even though it's more possible that horse has improved personally I'm a bit wary of him repeating it. While the run of Dark Encounter was almost impossible to predict I still wouldn't regard it as a shock, as the form book is full of such performances throughout the years. People tried to crab Harbinger's Hardwicke Stakes win because of the proximity of Duncan, ignoring that every other runner in the race was thrashed. Duncan ran a similar race to Dark Encounter, running on past beaten horses and reaching a level he couldn't repeat again. I reckon it would be just as foolish to downgrade Ulysses because of Dark Encounter, not that he's another Harbinger of course ![]() |
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Well the Derby form and Gordon Richards form is very similar and if the bumps knocked a couple of lengths out of him they would be the same.
I really can't believe anybody would truly think that was his current form and not allow that some horses improve greatly from 3 to 4, but each to their own I suppose. |
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I look at all of the clues F. If Deauville had finished 10 lengths in front of Ulysses in the Derby then it could be right to claim the bumps he received were costly but it doesn't look as though they were. It is all part of the jigsaw, discount nothing.
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It is all part of the jigsaw, discount nothing
But in nearly all your posts you appear to discount that some horses improve massively from 3 to 4. In the cases of older horses you repeatedly refer back to 3yo form, when sometimes it's almost completely irrelevant to what the horse is capable of now. |
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its a fact that ulysses best runs have been at 10f, so stepping up to 12f in the king george would be a slight worry for me, also think his 3yo form has no bearing in regards his form now, which has stepped up to a completely new level in his last two races.
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I only go by what I have. At the beginning of the season the previous year's form is all there is. The trainer may tell you it has improved but they are not always right. If a horse is lightly raced then improvement could be there, it is subjective. Some horses lose a bit of speed as they get older and are put up in trip accordingly but not, in my experience, up in grade. I judge everything on it's own individual merits. Nothing Ulysses has done in his 10 starts tells me he is a 12f horse. Of his 3 attempts he was well beaten in the Derby, he won the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood fast ground, sharp track he beat a poor bunch narrowly. And then he ran 4th in the US again sharp track, fast ground. None of it looks potential 12f Gr1 winning form to me. I won't be backing him in the KG anytime soon.
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By Galileo out of an Oaks winner 12f should be Ulysses' best trip. Stoute has a tremendous record with older horses in the King George - a clash with Highland Reel would be one to savout.
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Well my first thoughts after rating the Eclipse was I hope Ulysses goes up to 12f as that level of form would be hard to beat over another 2f. I wouldn't be as interested in him in future races at the same trip. I hadn't heard or read Stoute's comments at the time so it's interesting that on reading what was said he quickly mentioned 12f without appearing to be prompted about the option.
He said: "Don't rule out going back to a mile and a half. He ran a big race at Santa Anita last year [fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf] and he's not as keen now. He settles better, and he'll get a mile and a half" I hope most people disagree with the pair of us as if he does decide to go for the KG hopefully the price shouldn't shorten too much. |
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Figgis - While I have no issue with Ulysses stepping up to 12f I find it strange that you say you wouldn't be interested in him at 10f.
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Uncle, even though most of us racing fans relish the 12f tests I believe that generally the 10f races are more competitive and require a slightly higher level of form to win. The level he reached in the Eclipse is at the lower end of my Gp1 scale for 10f races but over 12f it would be a more typical winning level. Obviously I'm not saying he's not going to win more 10f races, just that I think they could be more difficult to win unless they remain on the weak side, plus he'll probably be priced shorter at the same trip.
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I do not care what Stoute says especially when he uses the Breeders Cup race as a guide. Ulysses beat Ashleyluvs Sugar and Texas Ryano in a photo they were 40/1 and 100/1 respectively and that wouldn't even qualify him to win a Breeders Cup 12f race. Of course if the conditions as far as ground and course are perfect and the opposition is poor then he might manage a 12f Gr1, possibly in Europe but he will have to do it before I believe it.
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he will have to do it before I believe it
Okay let's clarify this. You're using last year's form to prove that Ulysses doesn't stay 12f. Which of his races last year would you say was his best piece of form? |
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Well with Almazour now likely to stay in France for the forseeable future with the Arc as the declared main target (will he run in an Arc trial instead of the Irish Champion?) the remaining 10f Group 1's look like being no stronger than the Eclipse to my eyes.
I do feel York will really suit Barney Roy and so have backed him for the Juddmonte (also partly becuase I hope your are right and Ulysses goes elsewhere) but I'd really fancy Ulysses for the Irish and English Champion Stakes double if that was the route they take - though obviously the weather may intervene. |
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^ Obviously as you say he will priced much shorter in future for 10f races so I'm not saying he's a 'value bet' for those races if they go that route.
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Well with Almazour now likely to stay in France for the forseeable future with the Arc as the declared main target
It would be daft to write Almanzor off so I'm not doing but all this stuff we hear about not being ready and needing more time smacks a bit of a horse that probably hasn't trained on. |