You have a short memory F. Stoute used it as his guide, you even pointed it out. Some of it in bold type. It was Stoute using it as his guide.

Yes I know that, but you have referred to both last year's Derby and Breeders Cup as evidence that he doesn't stay.

The only 12f races he has run were last year. That still does not answer the question, which race do you think tells you he will stay 12f well enough to win a Gr1 race?
A-T he had enough speed to lead in a slowly run race, I thought that was clear?

So it is just your opinion. It is not based on anything you have seen on the track? When asked if they thought Barney Roy would stay the 10f they said he always ran to and through the line getting stronger not tieing up. And they were possibly right though he did have everything in his favour, fast ground steady early pace but watching the way he finished I too believe he is a 10f horse on top of the ground.

That's tough. He narrowly beat Ashleyluvsugar RPR 111, he was beaten narrowly by Chain of Daisy's RPR 111, he was beaten out of sight in the Derby, he narrowly beat Major General RPR 110 and he easily beat New World Power RPR 64. Take your pick.

[i]So it is just your opinion. It is not based on anything you have seen on the track?[/i

It is based on the fact that he won the Gordon Stakes. If you believe he won in spite of not staying then that is just your opinion not any evidence on the track. The 11f 218y of the Gordon Stakes is no easy 12f whatever the pace and certainly considerably stiffer than Ascot's 12f.

Not sure why fast ground is being mentioned as being in a horse's 'favour'. It is summer flat racing after all and ground that most of the best horses should go on.

You are not looking at last season's form F? Basing your opinion on last season's form? Don't be silly.

Fast ground is mentioned because, contrary to unpopular belief, softer ground produces more of a stamina test.

What I mean't A-T was that he had the speed to get to the front but not the stamina to stay there.

Goodness me I just don't think he is a 12f horse at Gr1 level. I think Stoute's suggestion about the Breeder's Cup was misguided when you look closely at the form and anyone thinking of putting their hard earned cash on him as a result of what he said should, at the very least, look at the evidence. I am not telling anyone not to back him I am just saying I won't be and putting my reasons why.
We still don't yet know how good the Eclipse form is. And I backed him in the Eclipse.

Fast ground is mentioned because, contrary to unpopular belief, softer ground produces more of a stamina test.

That's obvious. However, nobody says Dancing Brave won over 12f in the King George and Arc as he was favoured by the fast ground. Or Golden Horn won over 12f in the Derby and Arc because he got his favoured fast ground, etc, and there's no reason why they should, it's irrelevant unless a horse has to run on soft ground.

it will be wholly dependant on the ground

Stoute has already gone on record as saying that the ground was too soft when Ulysses made his debut, it was good to soft ground, so it's unlikely that he'd fancy the horse on soft ground over any trip and would be unlikely to run him so it's pretty much a pointless thing to get hung up about.

the course

Which course could he win at then? Not many easier Grade 1 12f trips than Ascot's.

I couldn't back Highland Reel last year and even though he won that does not change my view. I think he is a 10f horse who

Which piece of 10f form would you put above his King George win, his Arc second and his Coronation Cup win?

Figgis I won't keep being taken round in circles but let me explain Highland Reel's wins you raised.

In the King George last year he beat Wings of Desire who I believe would struggle to win an average Gr1. In the Coronation Cup he beat Frontiersman who has only won two handicaps and a maiden and in the Arc he beat Order of St George who is a two miler. Horses can win races at any level if the opposition is weak enough and circumstances allow it to happen. Poor jockeyship, tactics, poor opposition, ground, track, fitness there are many points to put in the pot. So as far as Highland Reel is concerned you decide which piece of form is best because I don't need to.

The fundamentals of horse racing are that every horse stays 12f. Limato could run in the King George. He wouldn't necessarily win it but he would finish.
Sheikh Mohammed and Jim Bolger thought Dawn Approach would stay 12f. The circumstances surrounding his defeat may not have changed their views but the decided to shelve that part of his career and return to a mile. These are the fundamentals we all have to work to. We make a decision based on what we know and believe then reconsider these opinions as we go along.

As you get deeper into betting then you introduce parameters around which you consider your options. These parameters are often the difference between success and failure. Some races, as you often say, do not warrant a bet because there are too many variables. Then, as you get more experienced the ability to remove horses from the equation becomes easier.
The facts are sometimes available but not always so forming an opinion is the basis on which most of us work. The better the ability to form an opinion the more likely we are to be successful. Often our opinions are proved to be wrong but hopefully, we are right often enough to make a profit.
Unlike some, we form out opinions before the event then reassess after the event. We might be minded to change our opinion but usually only if the evidence is there to support that.
You had your opinion about Cliffs of Moher before the Derby and you may well have changed that or you may say, quite rightly that there is not yet enough evidence to change your view. Often acting too quickly, making a decision too soon, and I see this a lot, can lead to regret and often at a very favourable price. You may think now that he doesn't stay 12f or you may think he will be better at 12f. Making the right decision is fundamental to succes in the long run not in the short term.

Agree with opinion re running over a mile,think he would be top drawer...He is already but could be even better over fast run mile,I would be pointing him at Breeders cup mile if mine.

So as far as Highland Reel is concerned you decide which piece of form is best because I don't need to.

You don't need to if you think you can just come out with random comments such as Highland Reel is really a 10f horse that only gets 12f in the right circumstances without having any explanation why he's a better 10f horse. If that's the case though most people will think those comments are groundless piffle.

Figgis you simply do not understand the concept of 'my opinion'. Anyone having an opinion that differs with your's is uttering mindless piffle. If you were right all of the time you certainly would not be on this forum. If you want me to bet with your money then that is fine but while I am betting with my money I will be doing it following my own opinion. I get it wrong and I get it right sometimes but everyone having a different opinion is what makes betting work. I will not be saying anytime soon that your opinion is mindless piffle even after it is proven to be because I know having an opinion is three sided. You can be right, you can be wrong and you can be completely undecided.

Wood if the going comes up on the softer side and Jack Hobbs, to name but one, runs then your money may not be as safe as the price suggests.

That's right for 55 years and working in top flat and NH yards I base my opinion on a hunch.

Still deflecting attention away from answering the very simple question of which form says Highland Reel is a better performer at 10f than 12f.

Where did I say Highland Reel had better form at 10f than 12f?

I refer you back to my post at 1.20pm.

I don't remember asking you 'what evidence on the track points to Ulysses being a better performer at 10f than 12f'.

That sounds like a question you made up.

I don't remember asking you 'what evidence on the track points to Ulysses being a better performer at 10f than 12f'.

No, which is probably why I didn't say you did.

I hope you are wrong Wood. It appears Enable will be running in Ireland on Saturday so my KG bets are diminishing by the minute.

So 'this was a question you asked me earlier' was about what, exactly?

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Figgis
Date Joined:    28 Sep 04
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09 Jul 17 20:06 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 6,928 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
That still does not answer the question, which race do you think tells you he will stay 12f well enough to win a Gr1 race?

Probably because as far as I can see you have only just asked the question. I believe the horse has proved he stays 12f on his past form. Until yesterday I did not think any of his races had proved that he was good enough to win a decent Gp1 over any trip, although I did say he was still open to improvement. He has now proved he is good enough to win a Gp1 over 10f. Nothing this year has altered my opinion that he stays 12f. It's quite straightforward, he's a Gp1 horse and I believe he stays 12f, as I did last year, therefore he can win a 12f Gp1 race.

It was already answered in that post yesterday evening. Maybe it's time for your afternoon nap.