Horse Antepost
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03 Jul 17
22:29
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07 Sep 15
The 3yr old colts are heading the market. Cliffs Of Moher (CoM) the Derby runner-up is fav at 11/4; the SJP winner and conqueror of Churchill Barney Roy is 4/1 with Derby 5th Eminent at 9/2. Their elders are headed by Decorated Knight and Ulysses at 8/1; Jack Hobbs is 14/1 (only 6/1 with the sponsor) but will he run after the drubbing on good/firm ground (possibly similar going here) in the Prince Of Wales at Ascot just 2.5 weeks ago come race day?
Is CoM the justified 11/4 fav with two 2000G principals in the field?
Is CoM the justified 11/4 fav with two 2000G principals in the field?
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With Coolmore likely to be able to set the race up for him I expect CoM to go off around 7/4 and win.
Eminent needs a bit of cut imo and I'm not sure about Barney Roy staying. |
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This is a clear 3 year olds versus the 4 year olds race so it will be interesting to see how the younger horses get on.
Of the 3 year olds I cannot really separate them. CoM has a little in hand of Eminent and Barney Roy has already won a Group 1 but will he stay. He runs like he should but they are inseparable. Of the older horses I think Jack Hobbs and Ulysees are the best but JH has to bounce back and Stoute's horses are jut missing at the moment. I've already lost a few quid in this race on Churchill, again, and I also backed JH, after Ascot, at 16s and 20's. I don't think the Ascot race was run to suit and if they water I think the going and the stiff track should suit him well. He was favourite to beat Highland Reel in the PoW after all. And his two runs before that are the best in the race. |
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this looks between CoM and Eminent to me - JH is just too unreliable and BR won't stay
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CoM is the 5/2 fav because he finished infront of Eminent (5th) in the Derby but unlike Eminent he did not run in the 2000G; Eminent was unsuited by the pace in the 2000G and was shuffled back and not seemed to have acted at Epsom either, I think.
But what I find perplexing is Barney Roy's preference for this 10f race and not the 8f Prix Jean Prat a day later at Chantilly despite winning the one mile SJP race - I'd have thought connections would want to cement and prove he is the best miler in Europe after defeating Churchill in the SJP, unless of course they reckoned that was a fluke and he is better suited over 10f here. As for Jack Hobbs I think this race could come too soon for him and the distance similar to the PoW is far from ideal either, and the anticipated going could be a negative too; Ulysses also ran in the PoW. |
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Does n't look the most inspiring of renewals - I keep reading that the 3yos are no good but there's no stand out older horse and the wfa is a boon for the younger brigade.
In fairness if CoM, Eminent and Barney Roy all turn up we might see one of them emerge as the leading 3yo - it's easy to forget how lightly raced they all are still. Permian is probably underrated but not sure if he is going to turn up and it's easy to see him running well without looking like winning. I'd be interested in Deauville too if I was convinced he was going to turn up and run on his merits - but AOB has signposted this race for CoM since the Derby and he looks the Ballydoyle no. 1 going in. I'm assuming it's going to be quick which would count against Jack Hobbs surely - there's a threat of thunderstorms on Thursday evening but that could work either way because it might just dissuade the CoC from watering... |
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I don't think JG is too bothered about the ground because it was quick at Ascot and he still started favourite. He did not run the greatest race but I'm not sure about the pace Scottish set it looked steady then they quickened at the home turn leaving JH in the wrong place with the pace quickening. I think Ulysees was also inconvenienced by the pace and going. If he runs, and it looks like there will be pace in the race, I think JH and Ulysees will put it up to the younger horses. With my bets on Cracksman for the KG I would obviously like the three year olds to do well so it will be interesting.
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I wouldn't say the race lacked strength in depth, in fact it looks deeper than a lot of renewals but it certainly lacks a true Gp1 horse. I have this year's SJP winner the worst since Most Improved. Not quite as poor as him but only a couple of pounds higher. Yet remarkably Barney Roy tops my figures at the weights, which I agree with ReaseHeath are favourable to the 3yos at this time of year. From the way BR won his maiden over 1m last year I think there's more chance he'll get the trip than not. The problem with him for me is it looked a taxing effort last time and I'm not sure if that was an ideal prep for this race.
Having had more time to analyse the Derby I'm convinced that COM was the best horse in the race but didn't quite get home. I reckon he'll be better over this 10f but that still only makes him a fairly moderate 3yo and not one for me at the price. Eminent wouldn't be too far away if capable of recapturing his Craven form. If Deauville can repeat his most recent run he'll be right there in the mix too and I have Decorated Knight just behind him. This race looks a real headscratcher and I wouldn't be surprised to see any those five mentioned win in a year without a real star. I favour Barney Roy on form but the hard race last time puts me off playing at the price. Maybe I'll change my mind after looking at the paddock shots but no bet at this stage. |
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Jack Hobbs ran a shocker...I feared he could have had suffered an injury given his performance in the PoW. He should never have run there given the distance and state of the going - Gosden gave these as reasons after the race but did not go as far as admitting to a mistake for his taking part.
Crowley has been booked for Ulysses so he'll probably show up here but I still doubt very much Jack Hobbs will - he has the King George VI (KG) on 29th July (his 2nd nominated race post Meydan triumph) an alternative; of course not a given as it is Gosden; is Cracksman going for the KG? I thought connection were giving him a break post the Irish Derby,...as it is horse racing nothing is set in stone. What a shame the two best fillies last season ie Minding and Seventh Heaven have been injured? The latter would have revelled in this firm going. |
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I don't see the trip being a problem for Barney Roy, in fact I think it's a big positive. The horse looked to be needing further in the Guineas, and won on debut over a mile as a 2 y/o. I think 1m 2f is perfect
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Barney Roy is charting new territory if running here whereas the race at Chantilly the following day is at a trip he's won on three occasions. Eminent and CoM are no pushovers either.
Re: Jack Hobbs Gosden: "We've left Jack Hobbs in the Eclipse and if they get the thunderstorms they say are on their way, he's an intended runner. It was a bit too quick for him at Ascot and if we'd waited with him for the King George we could find it's pretty much the same surface again. He seems in good shape and has winning form at Sandown." At least he is none the worse after Ascot. However, from the above statement if running here he'd be missing in the King George. Personally, he's the principal adversary to Highland Reel apart from the ground. |
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Imp I have said all along I think JG has either Enable or Cracksman lined up for the King George. He is trying to target the 10f races for Jack Hobbs that won't suit his two three year olds. The Juddmonte, Irish Champion Stakes and Champion Stakes. AOB may have been aiming his Derby winner, had CoM won the Derby, at the KG and sent Highland Reel on the 10f route because, as I have always said, HR is really a 10f horse who gets 12f only in the right conditions.
Maybe that is backed up by the fact that CoM is entered in the King George but Capri is not. Makes you wonder. |
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Maybe that is why AOB isn't saying CoM definitely didn't stay but he is saying he may have not been fit enough. That could be a hint. Perhaps it's the KG next for CoM if he wins. Three week gap isn't out of the question.
You can get 30+ on here for a few quid and 16s elsewhere Figgis. May not be the worst bet in the world considering you think he should have won the Derby. |
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I have to admit I did take the 40s for a quid. Why not?
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the weather forecasters have been honing a skill in predicting thunderstorms that never actually arrive for most of the summer so far...
 CoC can't water because thunderstorms might put down 20mm or 0mm - I suppose if they don't arrive he could water after racing on Friday. Mr. Gosden will presumably have to declare Jack Hobbs because the thunderstorms are n't forecast until Thursday night anyway - usual mo is walk the course with a big stick on Saturday before racing then still not make a decision and wait for jockey feedback from the first two races. He is n't quite in the Dermot Weld class at this yet but he's getting there... |
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AOB
"We then stepped him up to a mile and a half at Epsom and we weren't sure he'd get that either. He didn't really see out that trip and was caught late, so we don't know whether it was a case of him not fully staying or whether it was a lack of fitness as he'd only one run under his belt at Chester going there. "We'll find out at Sandown whether a mile and a quarter is his ideal trip or not. We still have quite a few left in at the moment but Cliffs Of Moher is the horse we're looking at for the race."  |
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May not be the worst bet in the world considering you think he should have won the Derby
I didn't say he should've won. I said I think he was the best horse in the race but he didn't quite stay the trip well enough to win. Still means he's only the best of a bunch of plodders though. He has a chance of winning on Saturday but not one greater than his price in my view. He's still open to improvement but he'd have to win impressively against that field for me to upgrade my opinion of him and if he does win I doubt they'd go back up in trip with him, I know I wouldn't. |
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Did owner of Cracksman not allude to the horse being given a break and could be back in the autumn or next season? Enable could be backed here for the KG at 20+ just a few moments ago,...does that not reflect his chance of running in the KG? Even Jack Hobbs is trading less than that. As such I'd doubt it very much esp with just two weeks between the Irish Oaks and the KG.
Over 12f I cannot see CoM beating Highland Reel and/or Jack Hobbs, all things being equal. I also think a strongly run 12f race would catch out CoM. The only 12f horses for me are Jack Hobbs, Seventh Heaven, Highland Reel and Enable in order of merit. |
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we don't know whether it was a case of him not fully staying or whether it was a lack of fitness as he'd only one run under his belt at Chester going there
I don't buy the lack of fitness bit at all. I'm sure he didn't stay and that he put up a relatively faster time performance over 7f last year. Even though he didn't quite stay the 12f you'd have to think 10f will be no problem at all. I still don't have him as anything special at the moment though. Backing him to win what I thought was a moderate Derby is one thing but I want to see more from him before taking this sort of price in an all age Gp1, even a below par one. |
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He only got beat in the shadows of the post so I'm not sure he was a 'non-stayer' as such. He still beat Cracksman and nobody is suggesting he doesn't stay the trip. His move to go from the back to the front between the 3f and 1f pole was impressive though and if he can reoeat that he should be hard to beat. For all that Eminent ran very well at Epsom he never actually looked like winning.
Cleary though the evidence is that the three years old colts are all much of a muchness right now and it's only the lack of any really decent older horses that is making CoM, Eminent and Barney Roy so short. Ulysses e/w might be the safe play - he went through the PoW like the best horse. |
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For those who believe Epsom is a stiffer course than Ascot the trip should certainly not be a problem. And for those who believe Highland Reel is a proper 12f horse, good luck to you.
And look at the KG betting: Highland Reel (beatable here), Enable (not run?), Frontiersman (last win in a handicap), Idaho (Harzand form, good enough?), Capri (needs supplementing, CoM beats), Ulysees (Group1?), Cracksman (will it run?), Jack Hobbs (good enough?), CoM?. Not the greatest of races in my opinion and winnable. |
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Brig - I'll stake what's left of my critical reputation and state that CoM definitely won't be running in the King George, not this season anyway.
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He only got beat in the shadows of the post so I'm not sure he was a 'non-stayer' as such
Uncle, I meant relatively speaking he did not stay the trip well enough. For example if a horse rated 130 over 10f meets a horse rated 124 over 12f his stamina could start to sap late on and he could run 5lbs worse over the longer trip and still win. I reckon over 10f Cliffs Of Moher would've beaten those runners he faced in the Derby. I'm not saying he'd have thrashed them or anything and it still wouldn't make him anything special. |
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Betting on here suggesting Barney is a non runner.
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Figgis - I agree that a stiff 10f looks the ideal trip for CoM to achieve his highest rating - likewise Eminent, who I posted months ago (on the 2,000 Guineas or Derby thread iirc) that the Eclipse was his best chance of a Group 1. I'm on CoM and Eminent at very nice prices - much more on Eminent though so I hope he wins, even though I now feel CoM is the better horse (not by much though).
Knowing my luck they will both get chinned by one of the older horses.  |
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Only 5 left in Prix Jean Prat including Barney Roy - it really does look as close to a penalty kick as you can get assuming there are no supplementary entries on Thursday.
On the other hand, the others left are Thunder Snow, Spotify, Gold Luck and Trais Fluors so Godolphin might think they'd have a very decent chance of winning it anyway with Thunder Snow. Thunder Snow has already won a Group 1 in France and has been ridden by Christophe Soumillon in 6 of his 11 races - he ran well enough at Ascot too. So I think the market could be reacting to Barney Roy being left in a weak looking Group 1 in France but there is evidence to suggest it's not a done deal that he goes there. |
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^ Yes to be fair he hasn't been matched at silly prices for the Eclipse, just nothing looking to back him.
Presumably it might also depend on whether Jack Hobbs takes his chance for Godolphin. |
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Uncle you have backed CoM and Eminent in the Eclipse. If, as you hope, Eminent beats Com where do you think CoM can run next? I do understand if CoM bolts up the 10f division is a good one for races but the 12f division isn't so strong numerically. CoM has only had 2 races this season so is not ver raced. Golden Horn was an intended KG winner, bar the gong, and that would have been his 5th run. I believe nothing is cast in stone. I thought Highland Reel and Jack Hobbs would run in the PoW and I think Jack Hobbs will run in the Eclipse. It is a lot to do with the race programme the trainers work to.
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If he gets beaten out of sight then they will presumably give him a break, maybe even say he is injured and retire him.
 If he gets beaten and looks like he needs further then the Great Voltigeur / St Leger route might be considered, or give him a break and look at the Arc. If he gets pipped and looks like the 10f is ideal then the Juddmonte / Irish Champion. The King George just isn't an attractive race for a three year old in terms of future stallion potential. I expect in an ideal world Coolmore would want to win it with Idaho given he has yet to get a Group 1 to his name. TBH, even though he needs supplementing, I'd have thought Capri is a more likely runner especially if there was a bit of rain around. As I say I stake what is left of my critical reputation on it - you are in the fortunate position of having no critical reputation remaining.  |
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You are a hard task master Uncle.
I predicted Cracksman would win the Derby last Oct when he was 40/1. I predicted Highland Reel and Jack Hobbs would run in the PoW and not the Hardwicke, I predicted if they went slowly in the Irish Derby it would be between Capri and Cracksman. OK I also predicted Churchill could run in the Derby and then the Eclipse but not confidently. I have predicted Jack Hobbs will run in the Eclipse, Enable or Cracksman would run in the King George and Order of St George would/may run in the King George as well. I have put my money where my mouth is so if I am wrong I will lose. I have JH at 16s and 20s, Enable at 8s and 9s, Cracksman at 12s and 14s and OOSG at 28s. Nothing too big just something to look forward to. I know non runners are a problem betting ante post but daily racing has become so drab. |
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I also backed WoE for the KG at 16s and have backed CoM at 40s for it as well.
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You must have money to burn Brig.
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That would be nice Felt. I won money on both Derby's and a little at Royal Ascot and I haven't lost on the Eclipse and KG yet. The everyday dross is just too difficult to keep up with unless you have time to burn.
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I think there were circumstances why Highland Reel ran in the PoW, and I believe they were Jack Hobbs and Idaho related. However, I cannot see Enable running in the King George VI if her number one objective is the Oaks double especially with Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs, Frontiersman and Idaho as probables. It is too soon and unnecessary as she's only a 3yr old and has only beaten fillies of the same age; she could go for the Fillies and Mares on Champions Day though, if sound.
I believe unless something untoward happens to Highland Reel and Idaho the most likely route for OoSG will be the Goodwood Cup in August and/or the Irish St Leger (not the King George) - the same path as last year; OoSG could go to the Arc again in October similar to last year. I do not think we'll be seeing Cracksman soon as he'd be given a break from racing and could come back in the autumn or next season, according to his owner. |
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It is too soon and unnecessary as she's only a 3yr old and has only beaten fillies of the same age
The same trainer's Taghrooda had only beaten fillies of the same age. she could go for the Fillies and Mares on Champions Day though, if sound Has to be the least likely option of Gosden's targets I'd have thought. I'm sure he'll be thinking of the Arc if she stays in form. |
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The reasons were, Imp, that it is a Gr1 race and Highland Reel was beaten in the Hardwicke last season. A stiff well run 12f is not his bag.
In his 'stable tour' AOB eluded to Idaho and the St Leger debacle saying he may try later in the season to see if he stays 14f. Would that be the Irish St Leger? OoSGeorge's target was the Gold Cup. I do not think the Goodwood Cup would compare with the KG. Remember Taghrooda, Imp? Won the Oaks then won the King George easily. I think it is good to know the expected but to sometimes plan for the unexpected. |
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I always had the impression Hamdan Al Maktoum was the driving force behind Taghrooda going for the King George - he had already decided she would be going to stud at the end of the year.
I think Enable will go Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks, Arc if all goes to plan (I suppose she could go for Prix Vermeille instead of Yorkshire Oaks as prep for the Arc). I don't see why they'd target Fillies and Mares race on Champions Day, the trainer has Journey who has finished 21 in the last two renewals of that race. You could n't discount the King George obviously - she gets 14lbs from the older colts and Gosden had 3 of the 8 runners when Taghrooda won. Wings Of Desire ran a decent prep race for the King George in the Hardwicke I thought (would want a little rain admittedly). I know this is a bit off topic because this is the Eclipse thread but it illustrates what a minefield some of these races are antepost - you have to weigh up what you'd do, what you think connections should do, what connections do actually do and changes to the original plan due to unforeseen circumstances. Then the 48 hour decs arrive and you could still have a non runner if the weather changes... |
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I think the Eclipse will be a deciding race. If the 3 year olds dominate then why not head for the King George? If Barney Roy wins well then keeping CoM at 10f may not be the best move. If Eminent wins then I think they will rest him and if CoM wins then it is not so clear. I do think the 12f is still in AOB's mind. If the older horses dominate then what has been said about the 3 year olds is probably true.
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4 subsequent winners have come out epsom derby.
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Yes, but Taghrooda did not take in the Irish Oaks which is Enable's number one target.
If Barney Roy wins here his next race will more likely be the Irish Champion (10f), follow by the Qipco Champion (10f) at Newmarket. If he loses back to 1m races; similarly with Eminent and CoM except CoM could go back to 12f for a definitive (confirmation) whether he stays or not. None of the above will contest 12f races eg the King George VI or the Arc, I believe. |