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Opposing Thistkecrack in the Gold Cup!!!
Opposing Thistkecrack in the Gold Cup!!!
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Don Cossack did n't travel a furlong further in last season's Gold Cup than Thistlecrack did on Saturday. He only traveled 42 yards further.
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I don't do my own speed figures and maybe somebody who does would like to comment.
However, according to the Raceform speed ratings, Thistlecrack achieved a better figure on Saturday than he has ever done before over hurdles or fences and better than the rating Don Cossack achieved in winning last year's Gold Cup. |
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Just checked and hadn't realised the extent of the added distance on Saturday, so stand corrected.
I'm not a speed man either, although Topspeed ratings for the two races assess Don Cossack at 167, Thistlecrack 151. However, the point remains valid - in a good going Gold Cup, Thistlecrack is likely to be travelling much quicker than he has so far over fences. |
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I accept that but I'm taking the view that he's better equipped to travel at that speed than most of his likely opposition. His inexperience is an issue obviously and he might make jumping errors (though he's not alone in that either).
Last year only three could go the gallop ultimately - Don Cossack won't be back unfortunately and there are question marks about Cue Card based on his age and his performance on Boxing Day. Djakadam would have every chance but his performance at Christmas was a little disappointing too and he's come up short twice. All the rest have more question marks against them than Thistlecrack. He got beaten at 4/9 and his sequence of 9 unbeaten races came to an end - but in terms of experience gained and his performance over what was virtually Gold Cup C&D, he actually enhanced his Gold Cup prospects on Saturday for me. There's no point in getting involved now - if the bookies have a good week (and it's shaping up as if they might), they'll be out to get him on the Friday morning.Can see 5/2 or even 3/1 being available and, as things stand, I'd be interested in getting involved then. |
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There has to be a possibility that whatever chance he had of winning the Gold Cup was left on the battlefield of prestbury park at the weekend.
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My view has always been that he will jump better the faster he goes because he has such a high cruising speed and that the slight mistakes he made in his early races were due to him not going fast enough and slightly losing concentration.
Good ground and a faster pace would not concern me, in fact I think it would suit him. A big field where his jumping would be put under pressure by plenty of experienced quick, fluent jumpers would be a concern as he would have to jump as fluently as them to not keep losing ground at every fence that would then have to be made up expending further energy. |
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I think on good ground Thistlecrack is worth a punt at 3/1 - the danger could be Djakadam; soft, Cue Card, Djakadam, Native River and BMD; heavy/tacky, Don Poli, Native River and Minella Rocco.
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^
the rest you mean  |
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Absolutely agree with Impossible 123 here.
If Thistlecrack does not win the Gold Cup, one of the others will. |
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Just out of interest is there still anybody out there who believes Thistlecrack to be as good as Arkle?
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Tom Segal wrote on Saturday that he thought he was the best jumper he'd ever seen which was quite a statement.
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bonkers statement, even before Saturdays race.
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Segal would be basing that statement on an impressive round of jumping in the KG. Well he wouldn't be the first horse to do likewise around there where a horse's jumping can be impressive when they can get into that rhythm, put it in around Cheltenham before we make those type of judgements.
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cyclops • February 2, 2017 1:34 PM GMT
Tom Segal wrote on Saturday that he thought he was the best jumper he'd ever seen which was quite a statement......he said he was the best horse he had ever seen |
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he also said Altior was better than sacre -
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Handicapper wasnt having it either KG win was low 170 mark. Worth remembering that Kauto Star was 193 at his peak
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You can't expect TC to have reached his chasing peak after 5 starts can you? even at the age of 9 there must be more to come.
Kauto hit the 193 after 23 chase starts. We could say that Thistlecrack is probably at peak physical maturity for chasing but more improvement will come with more experience surely? |
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i was just pointing out that clowns like Segal saying he was the best horse he'd ever seen - have short memories!
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Perhaps there will be an adjustment in perceptions once his career is over but if TC has an OR of 171 after 5 chase starts then one could expect him to hit 180+ before the end.
Then if you combine what he achieved over hurdles and chasing then some may well want to measure him above Kauto Star, because World Hurdle winners do not win King George's the next season after only 3 chase starts. This is what is remarkable about the horse. Kauto met with many defeats before he reached his peak and there were defeats afterwards of course. They can't run at peak every race, so expect more from TC and hope that he delivers. |
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The early retirement of Don Cossack, the untimely but tragic death of Vautour and possibly No More Heroes have very much lessened the quality and standard of this year's Gold Cup.
It is far too early and imprudent to be comparing Thistlecrack with Kauto Star who has achieved significantly more over chases; Thistlecrack did not even manage to beat Many Clouds in a chase over a distance further than the former has ever gone before but less than the Gold Cup. I'd reconsider my opinion if Thistlecrack beat Cue Card and Djakadam - a good guide to previous Gold Cups - next month. |
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And Kauto Star couldn't even beat Our Vic at Aintree. So your point is?
Let's judge these horses on the best form not the days when conditions or whatever go against them. So why are you judging him on one race in gluey conditions after only 5 chase starts? TC will never win as many GI's as Kauto Star nor perhaps get as high a rating but he will more than likely rule the roost for 2 seasons and potentially be one the of the best ever. |
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Always fascinating to see how people assess greatness in horses.
Highest rating, consistency, who beat them, who they beat, versatility, longevity, consistency. It might be of interest to reproduce the stats I dug out on the Don Cossack thread: There have been 40 performances this century that have been rated 175 and more by the Racing Post in chases of 3 miles plus (I've included the Betfair Chase when it was only 2m7f and the odd other one just short of 24f). It's possible I've missed the odd one. 191 Kauto Star 185 Kauto Star 184 Kauto Star, Denman 183 Denman (Twice) 182 Kauto Star, Don Cossack, Imperial Commander 181 Kauto Star, Don Cossack, Long Run (3 times) 180 Kauto Star, Denman, Don Cossack, Cue Card (3 times), Long Run 179 Bob's Worth 178 Kauto Star, Denman, Don Cossack (Twice), Cue Card, Best Mate, Coneygree, First Gold 177 Imperial Commander, Kicking King (3 times) 176 Kauto Star, Denman, Cue Card, Best Mate 175 Kauto Star, Coneygree So the only horses to appear more than twice are: Kauto Star 9 Denman 6 Don Cossack 5 Cue Card 5 Long Run 3 Kicking King 3 And, just to round off the survey, these are the top chasers this century over all distances, in terms of the number of times they exceeded 175. Kauto Star 17 times from 31 starts (55%) Sprinter Sacre 8 from 18 (44%) Don Cossack 7 from 19 (37%) Cue Card 7 from 24 (29%) Denman 6 from 19 (32%) Master Minded 5 from 25 (20%) While we can all argue about the rating of an individual race, the accumulation of stats is probably as near definitive as can be achieved and there probably wouldn't be a lot to argue over the relative positions of many in the tables above. The enigma is probably Imperial Commander who, in 16 chases, only exceeded a 170 rating just 3 times, and often ran like a dog, but beat Kauto Star and Denman to win the Gold Cup and ran Kauto Star to a nose at Haydock. Where he'd stand in the pantheon, I wouldn't know. |
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I think supporters of Thistlecrack are still very much clinging to his scintillating KG victory despite the under-performance of Cue Card (proximity of others to him) and his defeat by Many Clouds up the Cheltenham hill in the Cotswold Chase; Thstlecrack deserves to be fav but not at 7/4 (at least 2x I believe) because there will be many who are prepared and willing to take him on from the start; the Cheltenham hill is another factor that could be the deciding factor (if) he is still in contention.
The Gold Cup is more open than the present market is suggesting. |
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As always, horse racing is mainly about opinions and as such time is the best judge of all, all things being equal.
the untimely but tragic death of Vautour and possibly No More Heroes have very much lessened the quality and standard of this year's Gold Cup Like reading google translate! |
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Well at this stage,Thistlecrack has won the King George impressively,though the opposition has to be questioned......11 year old Cue Card who may or may not be regressing,Conti who has definitely regressed and Josses Hill and Tea for two.
Then he lost to Many Clouds who is not a top class three miler. He could go on to achieve great things,its very early in his chase career,but right now he is far from a great and far from any comparism to Kauto Star. |
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Let's hope the Cotswold has not taken too much out of him otherwise he'd not be in contention at the last fence in the forthcoming Gold Cup given the likelihood of the race being more gruelling than the Cotswold; his air of invincibility has been gravely tarnished but not diminished (yet).
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his air of invincibility has been gravely tarnished but not diminished (yet).
Tried google translate but it says 'does not compute'. |
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The sentence does does not make sense. Something cannot be tarnished without being diminished in some way.
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I concur, replace not diminished with not extinguished and we're all good
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Apology, typo error. It should have been extinguished and not diminished - the mind and the hand were out-of-sync there.
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Well done opposers. You win.
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Commiseration to backers of Thistlecrack.
Opinions aside it is nothing but a hollow victory, one that is not expected or wished for. |
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i guess todays news suggests he may have bee carrying a tiny injury when beaten by many clouds, i think gizzards interview today said as much
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tizzard
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TC back into 8s,on here.
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