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cryoftruth
08 Jun 16 14:27
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Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
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Sorry Jamesp you can start a more sensible thread a bit later.
However Fair Eva , the fourth of Frankel's offspring to reach the race course made a really taking debut today.
She messed up the start, then ran green for a bit. Them she rapidly made up ground into midfield. Then she went wide and I thought she might find it all a bit much. Then she bolted well clear, maybe running arounda figure of 88P, first time out.
The thing is loads of fillies could have won this race by 4 lengths, but they are unlikely to look quite so much like Frankel! (And she really does look like Frankel).
33/1 with 365
20/1 with Willy Hillz ( who must have been impressed too)
My earliest ever bet for the following year's classics!
Best wishes all.

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Replies: 208
By:
sintonian
When: 08 Jun 16 20:12
She definitely has Frankel's stride. Looked good.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 08 Jun 16 21:04
I have been a horse racing fan for many years. I remember watching Mill Reef's first crop appear. I even remember his first winning son called Soldiers Point I think.

Frankel was the peak of race horse breeding. The greatest flat horse of my lifetime with an unthinkable 148 timeform rating.
His first crop is so important to me and all the many Frankel fans.

Seeing a chestnut filly with the white blaze, the Abdullah colours and that stride going clear today was quite something.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 09 Jun 16 10:00
Well I've joined you in having a specualtive flutter - though I only got a score on @ 25/1 with VC.

I only had two such long range bets last year, backing horses for the following years classics straight after their debuts - Alice Springs (1,000 Guineas) and Idaho (Derby) both @ 25/1 who both finished in the frame.

Obviously she might not be good enough, get injured etc but the main worry is the trainer - has Roger Charlton ever even had a placed horse in a Guineas?Shocked
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 09 Jun 16 10:44
Yep me too. Managed to get a few quid on at 25's... really taking debut.
By:
Madhu
When: 09 Jun 16 11:04
unclepuncle-

'has Roger Charlton ever even had a placed horse in a Guineas?'

Yes, Top Offer was placed in the final 3 a few years ago!

You could look to Jeremy Tree where he was assistant as inspiration possibly- Rainbow Quest 2nd in the Craven and 4th in the 2000gns- I doubt RC goes back to 1980 with Known Fact (2nd 2000gns). I am a great fan of RC from July onward.
By:
Augustine
When: 09 Jun 16 19:21
Top Offer was unplaced. Brilliant home worker but had a breathing problem and was sold cheaply.

Inchinor ran sixth in Zafonic's Guineas.

Frenchman's Bay ran third to Golan in the 2001 Two Thousand.

I can't remember any runners from the yard in the One Thousand.

He's a top trainer, for me, and one thing you can be sure of is Fair Eva being given time and not over-raced at two.
By:
grinch
When: 11 Jun 16 23:30
Quest for fame
Sanglamore
Deploy

Though he just took over license
Has won multiple g1 and not a concern for me
By:
jamesp
When: 29 Jun 16 08:30
cryoftruth
08 Jun 16 15:27
Sorry Jamesp you can start a more sensible thread a bit later.
No problem, cot, I don't 'own' the thread, and as I hadn't got my act together in time I'm pleased to see that you started off a new thread for next year's Guineas.

Like everyone else, I was impressed with Fair Eva's winning debut at Haydock earlier in the month.  She's a lovely-looking specimen, she moves very well and won most impressively.  However, I decided to keep my powder dry and wait to see how she performs next time.  There is also a slight doubt (admittedly only a small doubt) in my mind about her stamina, as she is clearly very speedy and both her dam African Rose (winner of the Gr.1 Sprint Cup) and her aunt Helleborine were best at distances short of a mile.  [I know that Helleborine, full sister to African Rose, won over a mile, but that was a very slowly run 4-runner race, and she appeared not to stay when subsequently beaten in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac: she was a strong-travelling type with plenty of speed and was an impressive winner over 6f on her debut.]

It was widely reported last week that Roger Charlton was thinking of running Fair Eva tomorrow in a 6f novice event at Newbury, but she was not entered for the race.  One assumes that she will wait for a Listed or Group 3 race.

Roger Charlton: "She is very professional and always has been. She is a nice natured filly that takes everything in her stride. I don't over cook them. She took everything in her stride at Haydock. She led the group down and didn't duck and dive about."
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 30 Jun 16 13:45
Fair Eva's form getting some nice boosts.
By:
jamesp
When: 18 Jul 16 17:00
Roger Charlton is reportedly very pleased with Fair Eva, and she's come on since her debut run at Haydock.  She features among 20 entries for the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on Saturday, a race which should give us a good opportunity to see how she measures up against fillies with proven pattern race form such as Al Johrah, Magical Fire, Kilmah and Bletchley.  The likely fast ground should suit her well.  It should be noted that Russian Rhythm is the only winner of the Princess Margaret Stakes to have gone on to win the 1000 Guineas in the last 30 years (since it was raised to Group 3 status).  The Star Stakes (Listed) at Sandown on Thursday was also under consideration for Roger Charlton's filly, but they have opted to stay at 6f for the time being.

We'll find out tomorrow whether John Gosden's impressive maiden winner Dabyah is going to take up her entry in the Star Stakes (Listed) on Thursday.  In recent years the Sandown race has not been a great guide to the classics (although previous winners include Confidential Lady, and subsequent Guineas heroine Wince managed to get beaten in it!), but Dabyah looked well above average when winning at Newmarket and it will take a really smart one to beat her.
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Jul 16 12:11
Dabyah was not declared this morning for the Star Stakes at Sandown on Thursday.  It doesn't look a particularly hot race this year and is unlikely to throw up a Guineas contender.  Dabyah remains a top prospect, however, and my guess is that we will see her next in either the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket on 6 August (a race which Gosden has won previously with Rainbow View), the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados (a race he won with Elusive Kate) or the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood later next month (a race he won with Sense Of Joy and Nannina).
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Jul 16 13:52
Seven runners go to post for tomorrow evening's Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown.  This race quite often goes to a smart filly, with Jack Naylor (runner-up in the Irish Oaks), Maybe (winner of the Moyglare Stud Stakes, third in the Guineas) and Together (runner-up in the Guineas and Irish Guineas) among the recent winners.  But the race has a mixed record and some of the recent winners have failed to make much impact subsequently: Tanaza (2015) (-4780), Wonderfully (2013) (-6469950), Harasiya (2012) (-23047854), Cabaret (2009) (-0709), Luminous Eyes (2008) (-49279), Triskel (2007) (-8) and Chanting (2006) all failed to win again after landing this race.

Aidan O'Brien has won four of the last seven renewals, so once-raced maiden winner Promise To Be True (full sister to Maybe) merits plenty of respect, but she only won a slowly-run five-runner Tipperary maiden, in which the placed fillies had been well beaten previously.  She's clearly held in high regard (the trainer was talking about the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes as a possible future target), and the RP analyst was very impressed ("She might well be the best juvenile filly we have seen so far this season"), but much more will be needed here.

Joseph O'Brien's filly Intricately (daughter of a half-sister to Rock Of Gibraltar) sprang a surprise at 33/1 when winning first time out on soft ground at Gowran Park, and the form looks fairly ordinary, but she showed signs of greenness and should be capable of plenty of improvement.  Jessie Harrington, who won this race with Jack Naylor two years ago, relies on debut winner Drumfad Bay (a daughter of Gr.2 Blandford Stakes winner Manieree), who is well regarded (trainer was talking about the Moyglare Stud Stakes after the filly's win at Naas) and will appreciate the step up in trip, but she will need to find some improvement.  Take A Deep Breath, only 7th behind Drumfad Bay on debut, showed a lot of improvement when winning impressively next time at Naas over 6f (slow time), and the trainer reckons that his highly regarded filly, who should appreciate faster ground, "could be made for a race like the Silver Flash at Leopardstown".  Elusive Beauty, a staying-on close third in the Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes last time, Oh Grace and Brooklyn's Rose look rather exposed.

A tricky race to weigh up, with several unexposed lightly-raced sorts, and one to watch closely.
By:
jamesp
When: 21 Jul 16 12:41
Promise To Be True is a far shorter price than expected (currently a shade of odds-on) for this evening's Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes.  She's clearly expected to win, and a smooth victory will doubtless see her odds tumble for the Guineas.  It's probably foolish to oppose the favourite, but I've had a small bet on Drumfad Bay at 18.5, as the market looks skewed (based on what they've actually achieved so far).
By:
jamesp
When: 21 Jul 16 12:54
Fair Eva is confirmed as one of 13 runners in the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on Saturday.  This looks a good opportunity for her to prove that she's a pattern-class filly.  However, eight of the last ten winners of this race had already run in pattern company, so I'll be looking to back Magical Fire (but only if the price is tempting enough).
By:
jamesp
When: 22 Jul 16 21:52
Another skewed market: Fair Eva, although she's much the likeliest winner of tomorrow's Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes, is an unrealistically short price, so I have had a lumpy each-way bet on Magical Fire at around 12/1 (a far bigger price than I expected - I rate her around a 6/1 chance).
By:
maleuk01.
When: 22 Jul 16 22:36
I'm in on fair eva 14/1 antepost.

The form of her maiden looks good.

It was the acceleration which was visually impressive.

Hopefully she bolts in tomm.
By:
jamesp
When: 22 Jul 16 23:12
The fast ground at Ascot should suit Fair Eva.  She's a very pacey filly - after a sluggish start on debut she quickly glided into contention and the race was all over after 5f.  I have a few niggling doubts about her getting a mile next year, and I'd like to see her run over 7f this year before thinking about the Guineas.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 23 Jul 16 05:53
Digressing slightly james Promise To Be True is 25/1 with 365 for the Oaks and I just think it is an absolute machine. Bred same lines as Maybe might be issues about staying and don't know what it beat but boy oh boy that looked extra special time very good too. Max your cards out and get on. I thought had any amount left in the tank Ryan knew it and could see it winning the Oaks next year by ten.
By:
jamesp
When: 23 Jul 16 09:03
I think that Promise To Be True is an unlikely stayer.  Her sisters Maybe and Fluff didn't train on terribly well and were both tried at a mile and a half (without success) before being dropped back to a mile.  Her dam Sumora was a sprinter (best at 5f).  As far as the Guineas is concerned, I wasn't hugely impressed by her win on Thursday evening - she showed acceleration and won quite comfortably in the end, but I thought it was a workmanlike performance and much more will be needed if she's to reach the top flight.  On the other hand, she's still learning and is in the right hands, and she has the scope to do much better.  She's under consideration for the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes, which would be the logical next step, but 16/1 for the Guineas looks quite a skinny price.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 23 Jul 16 14:00
Well that was quite pleasing.Grin
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 23 Jul 16 14:03
Very pleasing indeed.
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Jul 16 14:25
That was a superb performance from Fair Eva beating Kilmah by an easy 4 lengths going away. She must be 'fav' for the 1000G and has every chance of staying 8f next season given her ability to settle, travel and quicken off a good pace putting distance between her and Kilmah who had good solid form. A justified winter 'fav' for the 1000G for me unless AOB has one that has yet to see a racecourse.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 23 Jul 16 14:33
Having come their cruising it looked for a couple of strides like she might not find that much and be in for a real battle but it was really good to see her do her best work at the finish. The last 200 yards was very Frankel'esque - really flicks her toe so good or faster going is important.

Surely no point in going for anything but a Group 1 next. Charlton mentioned the Moyglare, whcih on paperis the perfect race(7f and not too late in the year when the going can be isuse) but it would mean taking on O'Briens battalion on home turf?
The Cheverley Park is only over 6f so would still mean their are stamina doubts going into the winter. The other fillies Group 1's (Fillies MIle and Boussac) are over a mile.

Maybe they should she enter her for the Dewhurst.Laugh
By:
unclepuncle
When: 23 Jul 16 14:35
The Group 2 Lowther being mentioned by Teddy - she would surely hack up there, but doesn't really help in terms of finding out about the Guineas trip?
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Jul 16 14:54
The Moyglare would be a bold statement to 'Coolmore' - we ain't afraid of taking on the best of your lot!

The Dewhurst, a colts race? You do not mean the Fred Darling, do you? A colts race, I doubt that very much...too premature to be locking horns with Caravaggio but big doubt about Caravaggio going there myself despite bookies have him 5/4 'fav'.
By:
jamesp
When: 23 Jul 16 15:39
Very impressive performance by Fair Eva.  She has graduated effortlessly into pattern company.  But the race didn't tell us any more about her stamina.  She's a very pacey filly, she wanted to get on with it from the start but Frankie pulled her back, she cruised through the race and lengthened impressively in the final furlong and a half.  She's a smart filly.  Well done to those who took 20/1+ for the Guineas following her Haydock win.  If she trains on and proves equally effective over a mile, she'll be a leading player for the Guineas, but current odds of between 4/1 and 5/1 for the Guineas are completely ridiculous (as anyone who has been betting antepost for the last 25-30 years will know). 

The Lowther is the obvious next step, followed by either the Moyglare Stud Stakes or the Cheveley Park Stakes.  The Moyglare would be a completely new test for her - up in trip against much better fillies than she encountered today.
By:
jamesp
When: 23 Jul 16 15:42
It's very early to be talking about winter favourite for the Guineas.  It's only July, lots of fillies are still to appear, plenty of Group races (including Group 1's) to come.
By:
jamesp
When: 23 Jul 16 16:05
It's worth noting that the bare form of today's race suggests that Fair Eva is about the same filly as Brave Anna, the Albany Stakes winner: Kilmah was beaten 4 lengths by both fillies, and Dainty Dandy was beaten a length farther in the Albany.  Just a reminder that today's form probably doesn't amount to a great deal.  But Fair Eva remains an exciting prospect nonetheless.
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Jul 16 16:31
jamesp
I agree those not on at 20/1 or double figures have missed the boat. However, to say today's form probably does not amount to a great deal could not be further from the truth - Fair Eva beat Kilmah, a good and consistent barometer for juvenile fillies seen out so far; she could not have done any more than to beat her field convincingly than today.

She possesses the 3 key ingredients of a very good horse ie ability to settle off a good pace, a high cruising speed, and most important of all to quicken away. These qualities put her in pole position of any filly seen out so far, in my book; they will also see her in good stead staying 8f at least and possibly more (like Minding).

The present price of 5/1 would be no longer if winning the Moyglare for sure, but I believe the Lowther would come too soon and is unlikely.
By:
jamesp
When: 23 Jul 16 17:10
Yes, I agree that Fair Eva possesses the key ingredients one always looks for in a Guineas filly.

My point was that Fair Eva comes out about the same as (or slightly behind) Brave Anna, using Kilmah and Dainty Dandy as a guide.  Now, my guess is that Fair Eva will probably prove to be a better filly, possibly a far better filly, than Brave Anna, but the bare form is nothing special - unless you also rate Brave Anna's Albany Stakes form as being special.  However, aside from the bare form, the clock suggests that it was an excellent performance and that the winner is a very smart 6f filly.  It remains to be seen whether she will be capable of winning a fast-run mile classic, but she has certainly made a very bright start to her career.  If she were still a double-figure price for the Guineas, I'd be tempted to back her now, but odds of between 3/1 and 5/1 are completely false.  If she'd just won a Group 1 race (like the Moyglare) in that fashion, then 5/1 would be fair enough. 

If bookmakers carry on like this, I won't be betting on next year's Guineas... Laugh
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 23 Jul 16 17:28
Almost broke the track record on only her second outing and only needed Frankie to straighten her up and then bolt up. Very impressive in my opinion without any cover. 5/1 is a big price in my opinion.
By:
jamesp
When: 23 Jul 16 17:47
You must be joking Feltfair!!!! Laugh  Finsceal Beo was 20/1 for the Guineas after she romped away with the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac by 5 lengths in 2006, and I could list numerous other examples over the years which show why Fair Eva 5/1 is a really terrible price.  One of the poorest value quotes I've ever seen at this stage of the season.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 23 Jul 16 17:52
What price do you think is correct then?
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Jul 16 18:00
Since 2006 the bookies, sorry turf accountants, have changed beyond recognition ie they are no longer keen to lay bets instead book balancing is their prime intention.

I can remember Diminuendo was still available at 16/1 for the Oaks post finishing 3rd and closing in the 1000G, and she was trained by H Cecil - those were the days, my friends!
By:
maleuk01.
When: 23 Jul 16 22:01
We are talking here and now, not 2006.

What price should she be?

It isn't just the ease in which she won, its the manner. That burst of acceleration when frankie pushed the button is what makes her exciting.

Also I think she still ran a bit green in front and wandered about a bit, Frankie's couple of little smacks was to keep her straight. He did not go all out on her.

I would say 5/1 is fair enough to be honest, and I wouldn't want to take a hefty bet at that price. If you do then stick it up here only 5.3 is available, did go as low as 4.8. I reckon if you put 5/1 up here it would be taken.
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Jul 16 00:40
FELTFAIR • July 23, 2016 6:52 PM BST
What price do you think is correct then?

maleuk01. • July 23, 2016 11:01 PM BST
We are talking here and now, not 2006.
What price should she be?


In a sense, this is an impossible question to answer.  Just because people were prepared to take 6/1, it doesn't necessarily follow that 5/1 is a fair price.  If I were a bookmaker (or a layer on here) I would see no point in offering more than about 5/1, since some people are prepared to take this price.  But as a backer I would want a considerably bigger price.  One of the ways to judge whether a price represents value for money is to compare prices offered in recent years for fillies following comparable performances.  Consider the following Guineas offers:

2005 Rumplestiltskin 20/1 for the Guineas following easy 2l win in Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (RPR 106)
2006 Sander Camillo 10/1 for the Guineas following impressive 5l win in Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (RPR 116)
2006 Arch Swing 25/1 for the Guineas following easy 4½l win in Gr.3 CL Weld Park Stakes (RPR 110)
2007 Zarkava 10/1 for the Guineas following 2l win in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac (RPR 115)
2008 Rainbow View 8/1 for the Guineas following impressive 6l win in Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (RPR 112)
2009 Lady Of The Desert 14/1 for the Guineas following 3l win in Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (RPR 112)
2010 White Moonstone 12/1 for the Guineas following 5l win in Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (RPR 110)
2011 Discourse 12/1 for the Guineas following 4½l win in Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (RPR 113)
2014 Found 8/1 for the Guineas following 2½l win in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac (RPR 116)
2015 Minding 5/1 for the Guineas following 4½l win in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile (RPR 119)

There is no way that I would rate Fair Eva's performance as highly as Rainbow View's second-time-out win in the Sweet Solera Stakes in 2008.  In my opinion it's roughly on a par with Discourse's win in the same race in 2011 and Sander Camillo's demolition job in the Cherry Hinton in 2006.  It's nowhere near Minding's performance in last season's Fillies' Mile.  Based on what she has actually achieved, even allowing for visual impression, I think Fair Eva should be around a 12/1 chance for the Guineas.  Obviously, due to all the hype surrounding the filly and the fact that she was already as short as 14/1 following her maiden win, no bookmaker is going to offer 12/1 now, but based on many years of antepost betting I can state unequivocally that 5/1 is a very false price.
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Jul 16 00:45
PS: If I'd had the foresight to back Fair Eva at 25/1 or 20/1 straight after her Haydock win (or even at 14/1 more recently) I would certainly be very tempted to lay off at 5/1 now.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 24 Jul 16 08:07
I agree about the odds James.
Because she is a Frankel there is so much popular interest.
Let's not knock it too much though. Its great for racing to have a flashy looking filly like her attracting public interest.
I have score on her at 33's for the 1000 Guineas. I have no intention of laying a bean of it off although i reckon her true odds would be about 12/1.
Isn't she quite like Frankel? Seems to take an age to pull her up.
I am anxious about loads of things. She may not train on, she may get soft going on Guineas day, something from Coolmore might be too good, or she might get injured.
I am not at all anxious about her getting a mile. Frankel was bred to get 12 furlongs and stayed 10 very well in soft ground. The dam is by a miler out of mare by a Derby winner and triple crown winning Nijinsky is close up on the dam's side as well. Fair Eva has a half sister by Dansili that stayed 10 furlongs. Fair Eva may not get 12 furlongs but will surely get 8 and probably 10 next year.
So yes she is a shocking price ante post, its the hype. But she does look very good and seems sure to improve over further. With that turn of foot she seems likely to continue to be quite difficult to beat.
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Jul 16 09:55
I agree, cot, that it's great for racing (and for Juddmonte, of course) to have an exciting daughter of Frankel that has attracted public interest.  She will certainly get 7f and she looks like she will stay a mile (though I think 10f might be pushing it).  The tactical speed she shows in her races is probably down to sheer class.  My slight concerns about stamina stem from a couple of members of her family that showed a lot more speed (and less stamina) than might have been expected from their breeding: firstly, Frankel's own dam Kind (trained by Roger Charlton) was a Danehill half-sister to Powerscourt and other staying types (out of a Lancashire Oaks winner), yet she often refused to settle and was best at 6f; secondly, Fair Eva's dam African Rose, by top miler (stayed 9f) Observatory out of a mare who stayed 12f, seemed to stay a slowly-run mile early in her career (as a juvenile and first time out as a three-year-old), yet she ended up winning a Group 1 over 6f as a three-year-old and thereafter was never asked to race beyond 7f. [Incidentally, African Rose's full sister Helleborine failed to stay a mile in the French Guineas and was arguably best at 7f.]  But these are minor quibbles, and I expect (and hope for your sake, and the sake of everyone else who's backed her for the Guineas) that her class, temperament and style of racing will help her stay a mile without much difficulty.  I'd love to see her race over 7f against better class fillies in the Moyglare, but connections must be very tempted to keep her to 6f this year.

PS Congratulations on getting some 33s for the Guineas!!
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