2017 1000 Guineas

Only just caught up with Sobetsu's effort last weekend which was impressive on the clock also.

That's partly because I was at Ayr where Delectation travelled beautifully in winning the Firth of Clyde Stakes - she seems to have gone a little under the radar, perhaps because of the profile of the race and her connections - there is also a possibility that her Australian owners will want her to pursue a career outside the UK. She's by Delegator so there could be a stamina question mark but I notice the dam has already produced a 10f winner from very limited offspring.

It seems unlikely that she will reappear until next Spring anyway so I would n't consider backing her until connections are more definitive about her future.

The other recent eyecatcher was Talaayeb in the maiden at HQ today. She's a half sister to Muntazah so may need a trip (although he has become rather tripless?) but her dam is a half sister to Ghanaati. She's not in the Fillies Mile but does hold an entry in next year's Irish 1,000 Guineas.

Would n't be surprised if any of those took a big step forward in what looks a very open market

According to AOB Promise To Be True (PTBT) could be heading for the Boussac won by Found and Ballydoyle in 2014 and 2015 respectively. This is significant considering PTBT ran so poorly in the Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland two weeks ago.

Promise To Be True was Ryan Moore's mount in the Moyglare and was well fancied (evens favourite), so it was a surprise to see her fold so tamely at the Curragh. It's hard to believe that it was due to the ground, as she'd won on similar ground before (and her sisters Maybe and Fluff both won on yielding ground). But perhaps they reckon she's better on fast ground (the likely underfoot conditions at Chantilly next Sunday). If so, she's certainly worth another chance in what is likely to be an open race.

The actual going in Ireland can vary enormously from the official one eg the Moyglare Stud Stakes this year which was officially 'yielding to soft' - it was nearer to soft/heavy similar to last year's Champion Stakes where connections of Golden Horn very nearly pulled him out of the race.

The Boussac is a race normally targeted by AOB for his best filly, and I hope PTBT goes there and redeems herself; she was 12/1 for this race prior to the Moyglare and she is definitely better than her performance in the Moyglare.

It's hard to believe that it was due to the ground, as she'd won on similar ground before (and her sisters Maybe and Fluff both won on yielding ground)

Fully agree, the ground was more like soft for the Moyglare but it was also more like soft at Tipperary that day, in fact it was even slower at Tipperary and that can easily be seen from the time comparisons.

O'Brien does not seem to have a marked preference between the Fillies' Mile and the Prix Marcel Boussac as a target for his best fillies - he has won both races on several occasions, and last year's Fillies' Mile winner Minding turned out to be his best filly this year. It's been a long time since he won either race with a filly that had finished well beaten in the Moyglare - Rumplestiltskin, Misty For Me and Minding had all won the Moyglare, while Listen, Found and Ballydoyle had all finished close up (beaten no more than 1½ lengths) in the Moyglare. You have to go back to 1998 to find one of his fillies that had finished well beaten (4½ lengths) in the Moyglare before winning one of the late-season Group 1's - and she scrambled home in a three-way photo to win a poorish renewal of the Fillies' Mile. It would be a bit of a surprise if Promise To Be True bounced back to win a Group 1 so soon after that disappointing run in the Moyglare. Perhaps they believe that she handles soft ground but is actually a much better filly on faster ground: it sounds like we may find out, one way or the other, next Sunday.

I think AOB do consider the Boussac for his best filly eg Found and Ballydoyle (Moyglare starting sp and ground) - Minding progressed more the following year and ground lucky; Found was not right hence missing the English 1000G but stable number 1.

It would not surprise me if Promise To Be True shows her potential in the Boussac - if running and ground is suitable - the proximity to the Moyglare does. I also believe if the ground in the Boussac is unsuitable the Fillies' Mile a week later is on her agenda too; I think she is the stable number 1, all things being equal, at his stage.

TALAAYEB is my choice of top 2yo performer over the Fri-Sat-Sun period, despite running in a maiden. Topspeed figure of 86 compares favourably with Friday's Group 3, and only 6 entered in the Fillies Mile Group 1's 49 entries has a better Topspeed. Of those 6 only Dabyah has a better debut Topspeed, at 89.  Breedings good, dam won 2yo debut and sole start, then next time out, on 3yo debut, opened with 2&1/2L win in the Fielden Stakes, beating the colts at the Craven meeting. Also dam is 1/2 Sis to 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati.  She looked slick on debut, and I couldn't resist the 25/1 on offer post-race for the 1000.

I was quite impressed by Talaayeb's win in the maiden on Saturday, but everything about her performance (led inside the final furlong, ran on strongly) and her pedigree suggests that she will be a middle distance performer, and I'll be surprised if she doesn't start off over around 10f next year.  Her dam Sarayir, daughter of Height Of Fashion, is half-sister to the top-class middle-distance performers Nashwan, Unfuwain, Nayef, Mukddaam and Alwasmi, and she herself won over 10f.  Talaayeb's sire Dansili has produced some smart filly milers (Emulous, Fallen For You, Giofra, Proviso), but these have usually been from quite speedily-bred (sprinter/miler) dams, and many of his best progeny (Flintshire, Harbinger, Rail Link, The Fugue, Passage Of Time, Winsili, Dank) have been 10-12f performers. [Miss France was one of his few stoutly-bred fillies to score at the top level over a mile.]  Talaayeb looks a really bright prospect over 10f+ next year, and if she's going to make an impact in the classics I think it's more likely to be in the Oaks than in the Guineas.

Correction: Sarayir is, of course, Talaayeb's grand-dam, not her dam.  Her dam Rumoush (half-sister to 12f winner Mawatheeq and 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati) was third in the Oaks and second in the Park Hill Stakes over 14f.  With that pedigree, I'd be amazed if she had the speed to make an impact over a mile as a three-year-old.

...but I've been amazed before (eg by Blue Bunting winning the Guineas in 2011), so it wouldn't be for the first time!

lay all frankels

you'll be up in the long term

Jamesp, agreed, like Ghanaati shes bred to go further than 8F next year. My bet is on the basis that she has a crak at the Guineas first, like a lot of the better fillies do.

17 fillies remain in this Sunday's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Latest betting from Power: 9/4 Toulifaut, 4/1 Promise To Be True, 9/2 Dabyah, 5/1 Sobetsu, 7/1 Cavale Doree, 8/1 First Of Spring, Hydrangea, Grecian Light, Rhododendron, 12/1 Wuheida, 14/1 Normandel, 20/1 Baileys Showgirl, 25/1 Senga, Key To My Heart, 33/1 Thais, Body Sculpt, 40/1 Elegante Bere

The unbeaten Toulifaut, smooth winner of the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale last time, probably deserves to be favourite, but there's not much to choose between her and the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados winner Cavale Doree (using Asidious Alexander, runner-up in both races, as a guide). First Of Spring (by Galileo out of Homecoming Queen), a stablemate of the favourite, is unbeaten in two starts over 6f and could be anything, though it's worth noting that trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has never managed to win the Boussac.  Pascal Bary boasts a fine record in this race over the years, so his possible runners Senga and Thais merit plenty of respect.  Hydrangea has the best form of Aidan O'Brien's four entries and holds Promise To Be True and Rhododendron on Moyglare Stud Stakes running: it will be interesting to see whether Aidan allows a couple of these to run, and if so which one Ryan Moore will choose to ride.  Sobetsu made a big impression when winning her maiden by 10 lengths, but Godolphin have never won this race, and preference is for Dabyah, whose trainer John Gosden has won this race on three occasions: she has looked a very smart prospect in her two races to date.

Using Asidious Alexander as a guide the Irish fillies have little to fear from Toulifant and Cavale Doree, but horse racing is never as simple as that.

I don't quite see your point, impossible123 - Asidious Alexander hasn't raced against any of the Irish fillies that might run at Chantilly on Sunday.  She was beaten 3 lengths or so by Roly Poly three months ago, but I'm sure that Simon Crisford's filly has improved quite a bit since then (over longer trips).

Wuheida (12/1 for the Boussac), who outshone stablemate Grecian Light (8/1) on the gallops recently, could be a bit overpriced for Sunday's race. No idea whether she's an intended runner though...

Don't think Sobetsu will run. Appleby expressed a definite preference for the Fillies' Mile, on her doorstep and over the same C&D as her recent very impressive success.

Despite Appleby expressing his preference for the Fillies Mile  for Sobetsu someone is prepared to take a chance on her her at 7/1 for £10 in the Marcel Bossac, any willing taker? The confirmation is 10:30 today, easy money?

jamesp

I think Promise To Be True (PTBT) is a better filly than Roly Poly despite running no race in the Moyglare Stud Stakes on formlines and starting prices hence if running to her true form in the Boussac she'd have the edge over Toulifaut and Cavale Doreeon; I'm on PTBT and I hope she runs.

Apology for not responding earlier.

11 fillies remain in the Prix Marcel Boussac after this morning's declaration stage.  There were no supplementary entries.  The following six fillies were not declared: Sobetsu, Hydrangea, Rhododendron, Grecian Light, Key To My Heart, Thais.  So Aidan O'Brien relies on Promise To Be True to redeem herself.  Godolphin rely on their smart prospect Wuheida, whose form has worked out so well (she beat Spatial, who went on to beat Sobetsu).  A competitive-looking renewal, with three individual Group race winners and some smart unexposed fillies.

Great, I have not lost my money on PTBT - I'm hoping she'll accredit herself well.

Wuheidi has credible form but I'm sceptical of Godolphin sometimes lofty expectations with their 2yr olds eg going straight from from a Listed and/or Gp3 race win to Gp1, and costing punters/followers a packet; Rhododendron is probably being aimed at the Fillies Mile now after being scratched from this race.

A very informative and exciting weekend of top-notch flat racing.

18 fillies remain in next Friday's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile, with Aidan O'Brien (six entries) and Godolphin (five entries) dominating numerically, as usual: Asidious Alexander, Butterflies, Easy Victory, Emmie, Fleabiscuit, Grecian Light, Hydrangea, Kazimiera, Miss Infinity, Nutcracker Suite, Promise To Be True, Rhododendron, Rich Legacy, Sobetsu, Spatial, Urban Fox, Wild Irish Rose, Wuheida.

Half of the Fillies' Mile entries are also entered for the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes the same afternoon: Asidious Alexander, Easy Victory, Grecian Light, Kazimiera, Miss Infinity, Nutcracker Suite, Spatial, Urban Fox and Wild Irish Rose.  The remaining entries for the Gr.3 race are Cristal Fizz, Double Lady, Glitter Girl, Grizzel, Groupie, Kilmah, Mystic Dawn, Nations Alexander, Paco's Angel, Peak Princess, Pellucid, Phalaborwa, Pichola Dance, Poet's Vanity, Raven's Lady, Soul Silver, Tara Celeb, Tropical Rock, Unforgetable Filly and Vigee Le Brun.  29 entries in total for the Oh So Sharp Stakes.  Double Lady is an interesting entry for Andre Fabre, who won this race three years ago with subsequent Guineas winner Miss France: she was a close second (beaten ½ length) to the classy Toulifaut on debut (nicely clear of subsequent dual scorer Rymska) and then won her maiden easily by 3 lengths at Maisons-Laffitte.  She's bred to be quite smart - she's a half-sister to Silverfield [originally named San Marino Grey] (9f winner, just touched off in the Gr.1 Prix Jean Prat, RPR 113).

Spain Burg is likely to be aimed at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf and is expected to continue her racing career in the US, after she was purchased yesterday by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing (she fetched 1.5m euros at the Arc Sale). A shame for her talented trainer Xavier Thomas-Demeaulte.

Toulifaut, a leading fancy for this afternoon's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, was acquired yesterday by Katsumi Yoshida (not known for targeting the British classics), selling for 1.9m euros. The new owner's representative stated: "We will discuss with her new owner as to her future career, but we expect her to run in the Marcel Boussac".

Well done if you backed Wuheida - much deserved.

However, a much better run from Promise To Be True but not good enough to win - she tended to run in snatches and was running on and catching the then front two ie Dabyah and Wuheida at the finish; a longer trip will suit, 10f and/or 12f.

some good business there for the owners of Toulifaut

I mean the previous owners

Toulifant could not have had a worse run - one for the future. I know he's been sold but will he be coming over for the 2000G?

I doubt it considering she's a filly.

impossible123 having a total nightmare of a day - he'll be seriously relieved it's his last one betting on the horses.

Today's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly looked the best juvenile fillies' race of the season so far.  The winning time of 1m 35.85s was a third of a second slower than National Defense's win in the Lagardere, but still very good (even allowing for the fact that Chantilly is quite a fast track).  Not all of Charlie Appleby's impressive maiden winners have progressed when upped in class, but Wuheida, who has always been highly regarded at home, took the step up in class in her stride, winning a competitive Gr.1 on just her second start.  Well positioned by William Buick, she looked a bit outpaced when Frankie kicked for home on Dabyah, but she stayed on strongly and gave the impression that a step up to middle distances will be right up her street next season, as befits a daughter of Ribblesdale winner Hibaayeb.  She looks a very smart filly.  In terms of classics, she looks a terrific Oaks prospect, but I doubt if she'll have the pace to win the 1000 Guineas (assuming that she's even aimed at the Guineas).  [Mind you, I thought the same about Blue Bunting a few years ago, so what do I know?!]

It almost certainly paid to be up with the pace and Frankie Dettori gave Dabyah an excellent ride, just outstayed in the closing stages.  A mile looks to be her trip at the moment, as she has plenty of speed, and it would be no surprise to see her aimed at the Guineas next season.  This was her first real race, and she's clearly a smart filly.  The runner-up Promise To Be True showed that her Moyglare run was all wrong (her trainer having alluded to the fact that she'd had a bit of a break prior to the Curragh race), and enhanced her Guineas credentials in the process.  She stayed on well in the closing stages, giving the impression that further than a mile will suit her in due course.  Her trainer described her afterwards as being "still a little bit of a baby", though it should be noted that neither of her full-sisters (Maybe and Fluff) trained on terribly well.

Pascal Bary's filly Senga caught the eye in fourth, having refused to settle for Stephane Pasquier in the early stages and meeting some trouble in running, before staying on strongly in the final furlong.  She looks tailor-made for the French Guineas, but if connections decide to aim her at the Newmarket Guineas instead she would have to be given a major chance.

Latest betting on the Guineas (best prices available, ignoring firms that never lay big bets): 12/1 Wuheida, 14/1 Spain Burg, 16/1 Fair Eva, 20/1 Brave Anna, Roly Poly, Promise To Be True, Dabyah, Talaayeb, Sobetsu, Spatial, Queen Kindly, 25/1 Hydrangea, Intricately, Rhododendron.  Considering that Wuheida looks more of a middle distance filly for next season, and Spain Burg has been sold to race in America (though I've not heard anything to suggest that the Guineas has been completely ruled out), and Fair Eva hasn't progressed, there must surely be some value to be had at 20/1 or bigger, but I'm inclined to wait until after the Fillies' Mile and Oh So Sharp Stakes next week.  It still looks completely wide open at this stage.

Trainer reaction:
"I'd say she's more of an Oaks filly than a Guineas filly." (Charlie Appleby on Wuheida)
"It was a great run, but she's a fast Sepoy filly and just didn't see out the trip." (John Gosden on Dabyah)
"She ran a great race and finished strongly from off the pace. She is definitely a nice prospect for next season." (Pascal Bary on Senga)

Replay of the Boussac for anyone who missed the race: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2376/

Rhodondendron won that well. Some 10's around which i took, but some other prices look a bit low.

Missed any 10/1 but thought the 8/1 available last night was very big myself and so had a decent bet.

She came down the dip beautifully and the front two pulled miles clear - if there is a danger it is almost certainly in the same yard and Ryan Moore did choose Promise To be True over Rhody in the Moyglare. A decent saver on her @ 20/1 might be the wisest move. Dabyah is the other one I might cover on as well.

Even though I joined in the initial gamble at 25/1 it was hard to believe Fair Eva was just 4/1 after winning a mid-season race that doesn't usually have any bearing on the Guineas yet Rhody wins the same end of season race as last years Guineas winner in impressive fashion and is twice that price.

unclepuncle

Couldn't agree more that the danger to Rhododendron will most likely come from one of her stable companions eg Promise To Be True, who ran a great race in the Boussac despite still 'babyish'; the latter also has a pedigree ideal for the Oaks, have a look. The 'loose' ground in the Moyglare Stud Stakes had had an adverse effect on these two horses.

I don't know why you think Promise To Be True has an ideal pedigree for the Oaks when the dam was a sprinter. Rhododendron is far more likely to develop into an Oaks filly. Her dam won the Nassau Stakes over 10 furlongs despite being sprint bred on both sides of her pedigree. Her offspring by Galileo should comfortably stay 12 furlongs in my view.

All three of Rhododendron's full siblings seem to back up that view may I add.

Jack Bauer'24'

You are right about Rhododendron (R/DI 1.35) has a better chance of staying 12f than Promise To be True (PTBT/DI 1.6) with the other two fillies in the Oaks betting, Hydrangea (H) and Wuheida, best on DI 0.87. But I hope the promising run of Promise To Be True in the Boussac, despite being 'babyish' but running on late, and most fancied in the Moyglare Stud Stakes of the AOB's 3 fillies (PTBT/R/H) will mature further and show her true ability and potential come 2017.

I'm not really a fan of the dosage index, it's an inexact science in my view. Hydrangea's dam and grandam were both sprinters so there has to be doubts over her ability to stay 12 furlongs. It's all about which genes are inherited.

Check out the 'Thoroughbred Horse Pedigree Query' website - it is quick, informative and easy to use.

Well, the lack of contributions to this thread since October suggests that I'm not the only one who has lost interest in this year's 1000 Guineas. For the first time in nearly 30 years I will not be having any bets on the first fillies' classic. No filly last season excited my interest sufficiently for me to get involved in the ante-post market.

For those who are still interested in the race, we now know that both Rhododendron and Wuheida are likely to head straight to the Guineas without a prep run.

james I was wondering wat happened to u as u always provide a cracking update service on this event hopefully the trials will kick it in gear

I haven't lost interest. Don't think the O'Brien fillies are anything like as dominant as the market indicates and think they can be taken on. The favourite has already been beaten a few times and I think history will show the fillies mile was no good.

Very interested in Wuheida and the Owen Burrows filly

Are there any examples of a horse running once at 2, then winning a 1000 guineas on her 3 y/o debut ?

graeme - not for a very long time, if ever.  But don't worry about it She's fine

Talaayeb Barny ?

Oh Yes!.

Graeme - Ghanaati is an interesting comparision, even though she ran twice at two. Won the 1k first time out, from the same barn too.

Both heading straight to guineas off the back of winning a class 4. 16/1 still there. Will need good ground. That's my only concern.

Interesting trial at Leopardstown tomorrow with three of O'Brien's running eg Promise To Be True, Hydrangea and Rain Goddess running.

The form of Rhododendron was boosted by the victory of Hydrangea; Promise To Be True was again outpaced (I think), and looked more of an Oaks filly. The extra furlong in this race will see an improvement in her, I hope.

Not sure what i learned there. Maybe have another ten bob on talaayeb.

Talaayeb should come into her own over middle distances, but she surprised connections by the amount of speed she showed in her maiden win over 7f, so perhaps she'll have enough toe for the Guineas. She didn't handle the dip terribly well at Newmarket, but that might have been down to greenness. Whether she's good enough to win a Guineas is another matter...!

Thanks James. I'd have liked her to have a prep. Lack of one isn't great.

Via Ravenna (trained by André Fabre) comfortably maintained her unbeaten record in the Prix Imprudence this afternoon. She is not entered for the 1000 Guineas and would need to be supplemented. She's a well-bred daughter of Raven's Pass and should be well suited by a step up to a mile. Awaiting news about future plans.

Stablemate Double Lady, beaten in last season's Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes, finished last.

The winning time for the Prix Imprudence was 2.77s slower than Al Wukair's winning time in the Prix Djebel, which suggests that the form doesn't amount to much (and/or that Al Wukair is very smart!)

Wuheida seems weak here, takers at 100 or more for pittance only - nothing amiss, I hope.

that's a shame if true as she was my fancy for the guineas and the oaks.

I do hope godawful haven't ballsed it up again.

Well done impossible 123, you were on the case.

Promise To Be True is progressively weak here (70). Would it not be ironic if Wuheida and Promise To Be True - 1st and 2nd in the Boussac last season - not make this race?

Why would it be ironic - the Boussac in run in France so they are surely more likely to run in the French classics?

Nothng much has come out of the trials and much like last year with Minding it would appear that if Rhododendron can bring her Fillies Mile form to the track she should win comfortably. I'm on at 7/1 and hopefully she will be short enough on the day (5/2 or less?) that I can lay off for a decent free bet.

My only other bets are on Fair Eva @ 25/1 (placed after her debut) and it's a surprise to see her second in the betting after dissapointing in her final two runs. I've laid off my stake at 10/1.

My only other bet is on Talaayeb @ 16/1, who just like Eminent, really made an impression on me in her back end maiden win. Obviously has plenty to prove but the vibes and market have been pretty strong on her.

Fair Eva looks interesting on her best form, but will she reproduce it? Old-school punters like me will remember that the 1000 is usually won by a filly with proven 2yo form - one that goes into the winter rated 110+ officially. Rhododendron ticks that box and little else does, but she doesn't look convincing to me. I'll have a small punt on something with a bit more 'promise'. TALAAYEB didn't beat much on her only run to date, but she did it well, will stay and is the subject of good recent reports. I'll take a (small) chance @ 14/1. Good luck.

looks like 29 left in at this stage

The 27(?) according to the Sporting Life includes Alrahma who sadly is no longer with us.

well I thought that awhile ago I was surprised it remained in

Very embarrassing for whoever is responsible. This is a declaration stage too, so not just a simple left in in error is it?

I can't find any reference to Alrahma having been put down. Sad, if true. Please provide a link.

james somebody said on here awhile ago it cant b right then or surely it wud not still b on here

James - I can assure you that the information came from a very reliable source!.  You will note that the RP already has her as a non runner despite being declared.

Yup. Just checked on the France Galop website: the entry states that she died last month.

then it needs taking out the market

I think Hydrangea is the one underestimated by the market.

Ok has it to do to turn around the form with the favourite but she was the only one to give her a race in the fillies mile and Hydrangea will have race fitness on her side. She did well to win last time out given they came to her and the extra furlong has to be in her favour.

She's tough as old boots and anything beating her will know it's been in a race. Assuming she lines up can't have her outside the top three.

I think figgis has raised doubts about fair eva earlier in the thread and that could well be wrong of course but it's possible that she's something of a hype horse. James SP has also brought up doubts about her stamina.

Couldn't have the favourite at 5-2 given she doesn't have a huge amount in hand on her stablemate and we've seen in the guineas before, like with homecoming queen how the O'Brien second string can often come up trumps.

The owen burrows filly interesting of course but just that niggling doubt about her form being good enough. everything to race behind her in her maiden win has been beaten since.

is Queen Kindly intended here?

thx

G Mosse jocked up for her m8.

I'm with Hydrangea too.Was happy with the Urban Fox run in the Dubai Duty Free to give the Fillies Mile form a bit of a boost.

its looking like both sea of grace and dabyah are france bound according to the odds on here

Hydrangea very fairly priced at 14-1 . But Rhododendron beat it very easily last year and Hydrangea was on faster part of track. When without the fav prices available will probably be around 8-1 and looks to be a great bet to me.

Going for Urban Fox each way - there are so many doubts about the market leaders and I can see her nicking a place - Nashwan in the pedigree so likely to have got stronger over the winter and not a bad run as a pipe opener.

I think this will go to AOB but which one, Hydrangea or Rhododendron? Or could it be Winter who ran well last time out to be 2nd to Hydrangea?

Because of the victories of Seventh Heaven and Churchill Rhododendron is only 6/4 to win this tomorrow.

Even though I win most money if Rhodedendron wins I'd be much happier if Fair Eva or Talayeb win.

Besides if anything can stop the Coolmore juggernaut it's one of my antepost bets.

Maybe I'm hoping here but have a feeling Obrien won't win this race. I mentioned Hydrangea earlier and she's quite tough but just none of his fillies really excite me.

Think Talaayeb under the radar but massive chance.

Never trusted fillies from two to three so only minor interest today. Backed Fair Eva last year and will trade some. Backed Rhododendrum win and Winter each way. Will also look at Fair Eva in the place market.

plenty value elsewhere now this markets not right now rhodo may win but shes no 5/4 shot

May be an uncertain race, but the fav is ensuring decent prices in there. Can't see her going off so short.

The worst quality field I can remember for a while. For me, the best form any of them achieved last year was Queen Kindly at York. She ran below par next time but that wasn't a total surprise after the hard race. She may come on for her first run of the season but there has to be a doubt about her staying this trip, also she may just turn out to have given her best as a 2yo. I said last year that Fair Eva's Ascot win had been overrated and that seemed to be proved true afterwards, nevertheless, against this moderate lot she'd have a decent chance as I'd expect her to stay the mile. Rhododendron's price seems to be based entirely on her Fillies Mile win but that was an odd race in my view as the rest either didn't perform or stay the mile at that stage of their career. The final time was rubbish. Her previous form puts her in the mix here but her price looks well too short so I've laid her.

horrible race and a horrible favorite at the price, not a big betting race for me but have backed winter here as feel trainer change a nice pipe opener over an inadequate trip should put her spot on for this, she looks a big improver to me...

you couldn't help but like the way daban won the nell gywn considering how she pulled early, she was fresh that day and got a nice prep race, she is a danger if progressing which i expect her to, so have saved one her

like the 2000 guineas this is another poor renewal and the breeding class wise in britain contains to wain to an average level, its a shame decent breeders have been wiped out down the years by big operations and this is now why class horses are in very short supply imo

I'd agree with you here Figgis she looks a rancid price

Unfortunately though OBrien is winning everything at the moment and making it all look very easy so that would worry me a little

rhododendron being backed as if she can't possibly lose, we'll see what happens but looks ominous

poets vanity e/w

gl all

Not my sort of race at all. I agree the fillies mile was a very ordinary time and couldn't possibly back her at the price but it wouldn't surprise me if she won. O'Brien tricast?

Decent renewal. O'Brien was sweating like Churchill pre-race. After the race he was like a winter backer, who also had a few coins on the fav. The horses needed a much better ride than that. Shows you the strength of the trainers hand when you can 1-2 like that.

Nice pick Harry.

cheers figgis nice lay so wd for getting her in the locker, wd to other winners and especially feltfair whose 2 guineas picks both days even though without analysis was well read

thought she won easy tbh even though the favorite was unlucky in the run personally i thought she injected the pace and hit the front plenty soon enough, quite surprised the second is 5/2 for the oaks tbh on the back of that, thought she maybe shorter and even though i wasn't convinced before the race on reflection it wasn't a bad renewal in the end...

winter had a perfect trip but she had the tactical pace and travelled smoothly the whole way, i really like her moving forwards and with normal progression she could be a top class filly at a mile

No longer analyse,congratulate or self indulge harry as it has irritated and upset old brown eyes and others in the past. Suffice to say all my selections are based on the clock which rarely lies.