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lay all frankels
you'll be up in the long term |
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Jamesp, agreed, like Ghanaati shes bred to go further than 8F next year. My bet is on the basis that she has a crak at the Guineas first, like a lot of the better fillies do.
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17 fillies remain in this Sunday's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Latest betting from Power: 9/4 Toulifaut, 4/1 Promise To Be True, 9/2 Dabyah, 5/1 Sobetsu, 7/1 Cavale Doree, 8/1 First Of Spring, Hydrangea, Grecian Light, Rhododendron, 12/1 Wuheida, 14/1 Normandel, 20/1 Baileys Showgirl, 25/1 Senga, Key To My Heart, 33/1 Thais, Body Sculpt, 40/1 Elegante Bere
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The unbeaten Toulifaut, smooth winner of the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale last time, probably deserves to be favourite, but there's not much to choose between her and the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados winner Cavale Doree (using Asidious Alexander, runner-up in both races, as a guide). First Of Spring (by Galileo out of Homecoming Queen), a stablemate of the favourite, is unbeaten in two starts over 6f and could be anything, though it's worth noting that trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has never managed to win the Boussac. Pascal Bary boasts a fine record in this race over the years, so his possible runners Senga and Thais merit plenty of respect. Hydrangea has the best form of Aidan O'Brien's four entries and holds Promise To Be True and Rhododendron on Moyglare Stud Stakes running: it will be interesting to see whether Aidan allows a couple of these to run, and if so which one Ryan Moore will choose to ride. Sobetsu made a big impression when winning her maiden by 10 lengths, but Godolphin have never won this race, and preference is for Dabyah, whose trainer John Gosden has won this race on three occasions: she has looked a very smart prospect in her two races to date.
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Using Asidious Alexander as a guide the Irish fillies have little to fear from Toulifant and Cavale Doree, but horse racing is never as simple as that.
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I don't quite see your point, impossible123 - Asidious Alexander hasn't raced against any of the Irish fillies that might run at Chantilly on Sunday. She was beaten 3 lengths or so by Roly Poly three months ago, but I'm sure that Simon Crisford's filly has improved quite a bit since then (over longer trips).
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Wuheida (12/1 for the Boussac), who outshone stablemate Grecian Light (8/1) on the gallops recently, could be a bit overpriced for Sunday's race. No idea whether she's an intended runner though...
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Don't think Sobetsu will run. Appleby expressed a definite preference for the Fillies' Mile, on her doorstep and over the same C&D as her recent very impressive success.
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Despite Appleby expressing his preference for the Fillies Mile for Sobetsu someone is prepared to take a chance on her her at 7/1 for £10 in the Marcel Bossac, any willing taker? The confirmation is 10:30 today, easy money?
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jamesp
I think Promise To Be True (PTBT) is a better filly than Roly Poly despite running no race in the Moyglare Stud Stakes on formlines and starting prices hence if running to her true form in the Boussac she'd have the edge over Toulifaut and Cavale Doreeon; I'm on PTBT and I hope she runs. Apology for not responding earlier. |
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11 fillies remain in the Prix Marcel Boussac after this morning's declaration stage. There were no supplementary entries. The following six fillies were not declared: Sobetsu, Hydrangea, Rhododendron, Grecian Light, Key To My Heart, Thais. So Aidan O'Brien relies on Promise To Be True to redeem herself. Godolphin rely on their smart prospect Wuheida, whose form has worked out so well (she beat Spatial, who went on to beat Sobetsu). A competitive-looking renewal, with three individual Group race winners and some smart unexposed fillies.
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Great, I have not lost my money on PTBT - I'm hoping she'll accredit herself well.
Wuheidi has credible form but I'm sceptical of Godolphin sometimes lofty expectations with their 2yr olds eg going straight from from a Listed and/or Gp3 race win to Gp1, and costing punters/followers a packet; Rhododendron is probably being aimed at the Fillies Mile now after being scratched from this race. A very informative and exciting weekend of top-notch flat racing. |
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18 fillies remain in next Friday's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile, with Aidan O'Brien (six entries) and Godolphin (five entries) dominating numerically, as usual: Asidious Alexander, Butterflies, Easy Victory, Emmie, Fleabiscuit, Grecian Light, Hydrangea, Kazimiera, Miss Infinity, Nutcracker Suite, Promise To Be True, Rhododendron, Rich Legacy, Sobetsu, Spatial, Urban Fox, Wild Irish Rose, Wuheida.
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Half of the Fillies' Mile entries are also entered for the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes the same afternoon: Asidious Alexander, Easy Victory, Grecian Light, Kazimiera, Miss Infinity, Nutcracker Suite, Spatial, Urban Fox and Wild Irish Rose. The remaining entries for the Gr.3 race are Cristal Fizz, Double Lady, Glitter Girl, Grizzel, Groupie, Kilmah, Mystic Dawn, Nations Alexander, Paco's Angel, Peak Princess, Pellucid, Phalaborwa, Pichola Dance, Poet's Vanity, Raven's Lady, Soul Silver, Tara Celeb, Tropical Rock, Unforgetable Filly and Vigee Le Brun. 29 entries in total for the Oh So Sharp Stakes. Double Lady is an interesting entry for Andre Fabre, who won this race three years ago with subsequent Guineas winner Miss France: she was a close second (beaten ½ length) to the classy Toulifaut on debut (nicely clear of subsequent dual scorer Rymska) and then won her maiden easily by 3 lengths at Maisons-Laffitte. She's bred to be quite smart - she's a half-sister to Silverfield [originally named San Marino Grey] (9f winner, just touched off in the Gr.1 Prix Jean Prat, RPR 113).
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Spain Burg is likely to be aimed at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf and is expected to continue her racing career in the US, after she was purchased yesterday by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing (she fetched 1.5m euros at the Arc Sale). A shame for her talented trainer Xavier Thomas-Demeaulte.
Toulifaut, a leading fancy for this afternoon's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, was acquired yesterday by Katsumi Yoshida (not known for targeting the British classics), selling for 1.9m euros. The new owner's representative stated: "We will discuss with her new owner as to her future career, but we expect her to run in the Marcel Boussac". |
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Well done if you backed Wuheida - much deserved.
However, a much better run from Promise To Be True but not good enough to win - she tended to run in snatches and was running on and catching the then front two ie Dabyah and Wuheida at the finish; a longer trip will suit, 10f and/or 12f. |
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some good business there for the owners of Toulifaut
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I mean the previous owners
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Toulifant could not have had a worse run - one for the future. I know he's been sold but will he be coming over for the 2000G?
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I doubt it considering she's a filly.
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impossible123 having a total nightmare of a day - he'll be seriously relieved it's his last one betting on the horses.
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Today's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly looked the best juvenile fillies' race of the season so far. The winning time of 1m 35.85s was a third of a second slower than National Defense's win in the Lagardere, but still very good (even allowing for the fact that Chantilly is quite a fast track). Not all of Charlie Appleby's impressive maiden winners have progressed when upped in class, but Wuheida, who has always been highly regarded at home, took the step up in class in her stride, winning a competitive Gr.1 on just her second start. Well positioned by William Buick, she looked a bit outpaced when Frankie kicked for home on Dabyah, but she stayed on strongly and gave the impression that a step up to middle distances will be right up her street next season, as befits a daughter of Ribblesdale winner Hibaayeb. She looks a very smart filly. In terms of classics, she looks a terrific Oaks prospect, but I doubt if she'll have the pace to win the 1000 Guineas (assuming that she's even aimed at the Guineas). [Mind you, I thought the same about Blue Bunting a few years ago, so what do I know?!]
It almost certainly paid to be up with the pace and Frankie Dettori gave Dabyah an excellent ride, just outstayed in the closing stages. A mile looks to be her trip at the moment, as she has plenty of speed, and it would be no surprise to see her aimed at the Guineas next season. This was her first real race, and she's clearly a smart filly. The runner-up Promise To Be True showed that her Moyglare run was all wrong (her trainer having alluded to the fact that she'd had a bit of a break prior to the Curragh race), and enhanced her Guineas credentials in the process. She stayed on well in the closing stages, giving the impression that further than a mile will suit her in due course. Her trainer described her afterwards as being "still a little bit of a baby", though it should be noted that neither of her full-sisters (Maybe and Fluff) trained on terribly well. Pascal Bary's filly Senga caught the eye in fourth, having refused to settle for Stephane Pasquier in the early stages and meeting some trouble in running, before staying on strongly in the final furlong. She looks tailor-made for the French Guineas, but if connections decide to aim her at the Newmarket Guineas instead she would have to be given a major chance. |
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Latest betting on the Guineas (best prices available, ignoring firms that never lay big bets): 12/1 Wuheida, 14/1 Spain Burg, 16/1 Fair Eva, 20/1 Brave Anna, Roly Poly, Promise To Be True, Dabyah, Talaayeb, Sobetsu, Spatial, Queen Kindly, 25/1 Hydrangea, Intricately, Rhododendron. Considering that Wuheida looks more of a middle distance filly for next season, and Spain Burg has been sold to race in America (though I've not heard anything to suggest that the Guineas has been completely ruled out), and Fair Eva hasn't progressed, there must surely be some value to be had at 20/1 or bigger, but I'm inclined to wait until after the Fillies' Mile and Oh So Sharp Stakes next week. It still looks completely wide open at this stage.
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Trainer reaction:
"I'd say she's more of an Oaks filly than a Guineas filly." (Charlie Appleby on Wuheida) "It was a great run, but she's a fast Sepoy filly and just didn't see out the trip." (John Gosden on Dabyah) "She ran a great race and finished strongly from off the pace. She is definitely a nice prospect for next season." (Pascal Bary on Senga) |
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Replay of the Boussac for anyone who missed the race: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2376/
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Rhodondendron won that well. Some 10's around which i took, but some other prices look a bit low.
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Missed any 10/1 but thought the 8/1 available last night was very big myself and so had a decent bet.
She came down the dip beautifully and the front two pulled miles clear - if there is a danger it is almost certainly in the same yard and Ryan Moore did choose Promise To be True over Rhody in the Moyglare. A decent saver on her @ 20/1 might be the wisest move. Dabyah is the other one I might cover on as well. Even though I joined in the initial gamble at 25/1 it was hard to believe Fair Eva was just 4/1 after winning a mid-season race that doesn't usually have any bearing on the Guineas yet Rhody wins the same end of season race as last years Guineas winner in impressive fashion and is twice that price. ![]() |
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unclepuncle
Couldn't agree more that the danger to Rhododendron will most likely come from one of her stable companions eg Promise To Be True, who ran a great race in the Boussac despite still 'babyish'; the latter also has a pedigree ideal for the Oaks, have a look. The 'loose' ground in the Moyglare Stud Stakes had had an adverse effect on these two horses. |
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I don't know why you think Promise To Be True has an ideal pedigree for the Oaks when the dam was a sprinter. Rhododendron is far more likely to develop into an Oaks filly. Her dam won the Nassau Stakes over 10 furlongs despite being sprint bred on both sides of her pedigree. Her offspring by Galileo should comfortably stay 12 furlongs in my view.
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All three of Rhododendron's full siblings seem to back up that view may I add.
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Jack Bauer'24'
You are right about Rhododendron (R/DI 1.35) has a better chance of staying 12f than Promise To be True (PTBT/DI 1.6) with the other two fillies in the Oaks betting, Hydrangea (H) and Wuheida, best on DI 0.87. But I hope the promising run of Promise To Be True in the Boussac, despite being 'babyish' but running on late, and most fancied in the Moyglare Stud Stakes of the AOB's 3 fillies (PTBT/R/H) will mature further and show her true ability and potential come 2017. |
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I'm not really a fan of the dosage index, it's an inexact science in my view. Hydrangea's dam and grandam were both sprinters so there has to be doubts over her ability to stay 12 furlongs. It's all about which genes are inherited.
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Check out the 'Thoroughbred Horse Pedigree Query' website - it is quick, informative and easy to use.
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Well, the lack of contributions to this thread since October suggests that I'm not the only one who has lost interest in this year's 1000 Guineas. For the first time in nearly 30 years I will not be having any bets on the first fillies' classic. No filly last season excited my interest sufficiently for me to get involved in the ante-post market.
For those who are still interested in the race, we now know that both Rhododendron and Wuheida are likely to head straight to the Guineas without a prep run. |
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james I was wondering wat happened to u as u always provide a cracking update service on this event hopefully the trials will kick it in gear
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I haven't lost interest. Don't think the O'Brien fillies are anything like as dominant as the market indicates and think they can be taken on. The favourite has already been beaten a few times and I think history will show the fillies mile was no good.
Very interested in Wuheida and the Owen Burrows filly |
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Are there any examples of a horse running once at 2, then winning a 1000 guineas on her 3 y/o debut ?
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graeme - not for a very long time, if ever. But don't worry about it
She's fine![]() |
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Talaayeb Barny ?
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Oh Yes!.
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