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I don't think the ground was to blame for Fair Eva's defeat at York - they were both good to firm - but I think York was an easier track than Ascot, and suited the sprinter ie, Queen Kindly, more. If anything, I thought Fair Eva stayed with the front two despite Smullen being easy on her at the finish. I look forward to Fair Eva running over either 7f/8f in her next outing.
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I'd say it was simply that she'd never been pushed to run as fast before and was beaten by two faster fillies, one of them even being able to give her 3lbs and a beating.
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You may be right and that York is as good as she is.
I am not sure about that though. I think she ran below her best at York and we may see her return to or improve on previous form at some point. As I said I was personally disappointed with her appearance in the paddock and her demeanour before the race too. Pat Smullen did say he was never happy with her at any stage. |
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Well that's possible it was an off day, I remember Cape Verdi winning the Lowther then disappointing next time in the Cheveley Park but then going on to win the Guineas easily. The difference there was Cape Verdi disappointed after a fairly busy time and a hard race. I do, however, also remember the colt Grand Lodge disappointing with no obvious excuse after his impressive debut but going on to show he hadn't run his race.
In this case I suppose I'm going to be biased towards doubting the filly as I'd already said she her Ascot win was overrated. For me she ran just as fast at York as she had at Ascot, just the opposition proved much stronger. I'd say Smullen was never happy because she was being asked to run faster than before and was out of her comfort zone. I saw the Charlton interview before the race and he seemed happy with his filly. I didn't see much of the pre-race paddock shots, what was it you were disappointed about her cryoftruth? |
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I agree Fair Eva ran as fast as she did at Ascot in the Lowther but jut could not quicken as much as Queen Kindly or Roly Poly over the easy 6f at York.
Fair Eva was going as well as the eventual 1st and 2nd but had no answer to Queen Kindly when the latter found a gap and took it up; Fair Eva was not given a hard race either as soon as her pilot knew she was not going to win. I think a step-up to 7f/8f will suit her more than Queen Kindly, and possibly Roly Poly. |
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Bin Suroor's string also suffering from a bad virus for the last month or so which hopefully means Easy Victory's lamentable show last time may be excusable.
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A form boost for Fair Eva with Kilmah winning the Prestige Stakes.
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Latest reflections by trainer Richard Fahey on his star filly Queen Kindly:
Richard Fahey has had a rethink over the prospect of Lowther Stakes winner Queen Kindly getting a mile and developing into a genuine Qipco 1000 Guineas contender. The Malton handler had felt the Frankel filly might struggle to see out the trip in the Classic, for which which she was cut to as short as 8-1 following her success over six furlongs on the Knavesmire, but Fahey has since had a change of heart. He said: "Queen Kindly is in great form. The Cheveley Park (Newmarket, September 24) is still the target. She is a great one to have around the place. She is very easygoing and has no issues." Fahey added: "She might get a mile. When I was speaking before I was only looking at her mother's side (Lady Of The Desert). On her father's side there is every chance she will get it. When they have so much speed you are worried that they are not going to get the trip. She is such a sweet filly. Horses that are very quick don't tend to stay a mile, but Ribchester is very quick and he stays it." |
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Fair Eva could be heading to Newmarket for the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes over 7f:
Fair Eva could step up in trip for the Shadwell Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket on September 23 after her defeat in the Lowther at York. The Roger Charlton-trained juvenile is one of the most high-profile daughters of Frankel after winning her first two outings impressively. However, she could not match the pace shown by Queen Kindly - another Frankel filly - and Roly Poly at York, and had to make do with third place. "She's fine and came out of the race fine," said owner Khalid Abdullah's racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe. "Ascot and York are two different racecourses and they are probably two very smart fillies who finished in front of her last time, we don't really have any excuses. We are confident about her and have not lost faith in her developing into a nice filly. We'll probably go a bit further with her next time, try her over seven (furlongs) and look at something like the Rockfel." |
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The problem with these Frankel fillies is that it's too soon to know how much stamina their first-season sire will impart. Frankel recently had his first mile winner (the Luca Cumani-trained filly Aljezeera), but that one is from a strong staying family (the dam won over 9-12f). It's hard to know whether the speed shown over 6f by Fair Eva and Queen Kindly is down to sheer class or whether they have inherited their speed from their dams - or both!
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12 fillies remain in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes after this morning's forfeits: Bound (AP O'Brien), Brave Anna (AP O'Brien), Dawn Of A New Era (JS Bolger), Elizabeth Browning (AP O'Brien), Eziyra (DK Weld), Hydrangea (AP O'Brien), Intricately (JP O'Brien), Promise To Be True (AP O'Brien), Rehana (M Halford), Rhododendron (AP O'Brien), Wayside Flower (GM Lyons) and Wild Irish Rose (AP O'Brien).
Aidan O'Brien, with seven entries, looks to have a stranglehold on the race, with the principal opposition Eziyra, Intricately and Rehana having all been beaten in lesser Group races recently (and therefore having to find some improvement to reverse form with the O'Brien fillies). Using Intricately as a guide, there does not appear to be much to choose between Promise To Be True, Rhododendron and Hydrangea, and it's safe to assume that whichever one Ryan Moore rides will start favourite. The Bolger filly is a full sister to Dawn Approach, but she would have to be a superstar to win this first time out. |
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Nine fillies will go to post for the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster on Thursday: Blending (J Gosden), Bongrace (K Ryan), Grecian Light (C Appleby), Hidden Steps (A Balding), Kilmah (M Johnston), Reachforthestars (D O´Meara), Rich Legacy (R Beckett), Tiburtina (S Kirk) and Urban Fox (J Tate). The winner, third, fourth, fifth and seventh from the Prestige Stakes renew rivalry, and this looks a good opportunity for Rich Legacy (a fast-finishing fourth at Goodwood) - she should be well suited by the step up to a mile. It's not hard to envisage the maiden winners Blending and Hidden Steps improving sufficiently to get competitive in this moderate-looking renewal.
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Simon Crisford sends Asidious Alexander, runner-up in the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados last time, to Chantilly on Thursday for the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale (a traditional prep race for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac), but she will have her work cut out to beat Freddie Head's smart-looking filly Invincible Queen, who looked so good on her debut at Deauville, and Jean-Claude Rouget's well regarded Toulifaut, a Frankel filly who's unbeaten in two races and won comfortably last time.
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I really don't know what to make of this year's bunch of two-year-old fillies. There have been plenty of moderate-looking renewals of Group races. Only Fair Eva (in the Princess Margaret Stakes) and the sprinter Lady Aurelia (in the Queen Mary Stakes and Prix Morny) have made a real impact, but nothing has tempted me to enter the 1000 Guineas market. Fair Eva looked very good at Ascot on her second start, after which she was a ridiculously short price for the Guineas, but the form is probably quite ordinary for the grade and she got beaten at York next time. The Irish Group race winners haven't looked anything special, and this afternoon's Moyglare Stud Stakes result threw another spanner in the works, with the progressive pair Intricately and Hydrangea fighting out a tight finish, improving sufficiently to beat the two better-fancied O'Brien-trained runners Rhododendron and Promise To Be True and the useful but exposed-looking Rehana.
I'm still not sure about the Frankel fillies: I'd like to see Fair Eva race over 7f before assessing her Guineas credentials, and Queen Kindly will have her work cut out to beat Lady Aurelia in the Cheveley Park Stakes (where Freddie Head's smart filly Alrahma can't be ruled out of contention). Perhaps something will make a big impact in one of the late-season Group races over 7f or a mile. Toulifaut looked good in the Prix d'Aumale the other day, and there have been a few eye-catching HQ maiden winners such as Dabyah and Spatial. I'm leaning towards Dabyah, but she'll need to win impressively next time (at Newbury on Friday) to justify her Group 1 entries (in the Fillies' Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac). |
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Well done to Joseph and Donnacha - they turned over their dad, 1st of many I'd imagine.
Disappointing run from Promise To Be True and Rhododendron, and one cannot blame the ground either. Now, over to Fair Eva in the Rockfel. |
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All eyes (well, my eyes anyway!) will be on the 5.00 at Newbury tomorrow, where the potentially smart sorts Dabyah and Wuheida cross swords in the 7f conditions race won last year by Dabyah's stablemate Nathra (who went on to finish runner-up to Minding in the Fillies' Mile and this year won the Nell Gwyn Stakes and finished runner-up in the French Guineas). I suspect that Dabyah is a pattern-class filly (she was under consideration for the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes), likely to hold her own in much stronger company. Confidence is somewhat tempered by the presence of Wuheida, whose form has been boosted by the subsequent wins of runner-up Spatial (herself a beautifully-bred filly and a smart prospect) and fourth Poet's Vanity (10 lengths winner at Salisbury). If Dabyah wins comfortably she's quite likely to take her chance in Gr.2 or Gr.1 company next time (in either the Rockfel Stakes, the Fillies' Mile or the Prix Marcel Boussac) and I'll be tempted to dip my toes into next year's Guineas market for the first time...
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It's hard to know what Dabyah actually achieved this afternoon at Newbury: she was hugely impressive, always travelling well and quickening effortlessly clear to win eased down by 9 lengths in a slow winning time. Following the defection of Wuheida, she didn't have much to beat (the runner-up had shown very little in her one previous race, the third was making her debut, and her main market rival Desert Water finished last and must have run below par), but she couldn't have done it much more easily. She's clearly pattern-class, probably a Group 1 filly in the making. If we see her run again this season it's likely to be in one of the Gr.2/Gr.1 races mentioned in my previous post, and I guess she'll more than likely be stepped up to a mile (rather than tackle Fair Eva in the Rockfel). She's a lovely-looking specimen, blessed with loads of speed, goes on any ground and should get a mile without any difficulty. I wouldn't swap her for anything else in the Guineas, for which 20/1 looks a fair price.
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Bet bright were advertising dabyah at 33s so tried to place a £5 bet online and was declined! What a joke outfit. If the price is no longer available why advertise it
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Sobetsu and Dabyah were both hugely impressive last week. Look like group one fillies in the making. Would be interesting if they clashed in the fillies mile. I'd certainly rate them above the O'Brien fillies who may have higher ratings but are far more exposed.
In fact I reckon the two year old fillies are much stronger than the men this year, certainly in terms of strength in depth. |
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Both Dabyah and Sobetsu were hugely impressive. Dabyah did though beat trees pretty much on soft ground whilst Sobetsu maybe achieved a bit more in her Newmarket maiden on good ground.
Looking at Sobetsu's pedigree, it looks certain she may need at least 10 furlongs to show her best next year and she is bred to get 12 well. Winning an HQ maiden on good going by 10 lengths looks interesting to me and I have had a bet on Sobetsu at 25/1 - for the Oaks though not for the 1000 Guineas. |
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Maybe but in the guineas I always think you need something that can stay further than a mile as it's a stiff mile for early season three year olds.
Certainly Sobetsu is interesting for the oaks as well. Then again I'm always cautious about getting carried away with a wide margin winner so lets see them come out again and run well on their next run before getting completely carried away, assuming they do run again this season. |
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Throw in Spacial too, at 33/1.
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Thing is I forgot to mention that Godolphin have a terrible record with preparing for the classics in recent seasons, which is slightly off putting.
Yes Spatial would have a poke, as she has form which ties in with Sobetsu. |
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Fair Eva is not as good as most have envisaged and finally conformed today, I think. Maybe she could show her true colours next year or not.
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jamesp-looks like you were spot on about Fair Eva and her overinflated rating-much kudos to you to look at the evidence of your own eyes, rather than conform with the Frankel 'hype'.
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One can never be sure about these things - she might simply have been 'over the top' by this stage of the season - but I got the impression that Fair Eva didn't quite get the 7f today (her stride shortened in the last 100 yards, she changed her legs, and she appeared to have little left). She's quite speedily bred (as noted in earlier posts), and when she was beaten in the Lowther at York last time she cruised up to win her race but then appeared to be outstayed by the two fillies that beat her. Her Ascot form was nothing special (despite being visually impressive), and perhaps this is as good as she is.
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More head-scratching after this afternoon's Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, where Brave Anna just got the better of Roly Poly in a battle to the line. They're both tough battlers, but neither looks good enough at this stage to win the 1000 Guineas. Queen Kindly was beaten a long way, and even on her Lowther form doesn't make much appeal for the Guineas.
The Guineas betting is now predictably wide open. Best available prices: 16/1 Spain Burg, 16/1 Fair Eva, 20/1 Brave Anna, 20/1 Roly Poly, 20/1 Queen Kindly, 20/1 Dabyah, 20/1 Spatial, 20/1 Sobetsu, 25/1 bar. Spain Burg doesn't make much appeal: her 1½ length defeat of Miss Infinity in the Rockfel Stakes doesn't look anywhere near Guineas-winning standard. I think we need to look at some of the less-exposed fillies that have yet to be tested in pattern company, particularly Dabyah and Spatial, who have both given the impression that they could progress to a high level. |
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I think AOB has the upper hand here once again with Roly Poly, Rhododendron, Brave Anna and Promise To Be True - the last two mentioned ran a shocker in Ireland because of the ground.
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But none of those O'Brien-trained fillies looks anything special (on any of their form to date). Possibly Hydrangea will turn out to be the best of them. Promise To Be True had won on yielding ground on debut, so she shouldn't have had any excuses in the Moyglare.
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Only just caught up with Sobetsu's effort last weekend which was impressive on the clock also.
That's partly because I was at Ayr where Delectation travelled beautifully in winning the Firth of Clyde Stakes - she seems to have gone a little under the radar, perhaps because of the profile of the race and her connections - there is also a possibility that her Australian owners will want her to pursue a career outside the UK. She's by Delegator so there could be a stamina question mark but I notice the dam has already produced a 10f winner from very limited offspring. It seems unlikely that she will reappear until next Spring anyway so I would n't consider backing her until connections are more definitive about her future. The other recent eyecatcher was Talaayeb in the maiden at HQ today. She's a half sister to Muntazah so may need a trip (although he has become rather tripless?) but her dam is a half sister to Ghanaati. She's not in the Fillies Mile but does hold an entry in next year's Irish 1,000 Guineas. Would n't be surprised if any of those took a big step forward in what looks a very open market |
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According to AOB Promise To Be True (PTBT) could be heading for the Boussac won by Found and Ballydoyle in 2014 and 2015 respectively. This is significant considering PTBT ran so poorly in the Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland two weeks ago.
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Promise To Be True was Ryan Moore's mount in the Moyglare and was well fancied (evens favourite), so it was a surprise to see her fold so tamely at the Curragh. It's hard to believe that it was due to the ground, as she'd won on similar ground before (and her sisters Maybe and Fluff both won on yielding ground). But perhaps they reckon she's better on fast ground (the likely underfoot conditions at Chantilly next Sunday). If so, she's certainly worth another chance in what is likely to be an open race.
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The actual going in Ireland can vary enormously from the official one eg the Moyglare Stud Stakes this year which was officially 'yielding to soft' - it was nearer to soft/heavy similar to last year's Champion Stakes where connections of Golden Horn very nearly pulled him out of the race.
The Boussac is a race normally targeted by AOB for his best filly, and I hope PTBT goes there and redeems herself; she was 12/1 for this race prior to the Moyglare and she is definitely better than her performance in the Moyglare. |
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It's hard to believe that it was due to the ground, as she'd won on similar ground before (and her sisters Maybe and Fluff both won on yielding ground)
Fully agree, the ground was more like soft for the Moyglare but it was also more like soft at Tipperary that day, in fact it was even slower at Tipperary and that can easily be seen from the time comparisons. |
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O'Brien does not seem to have a marked preference between the Fillies' Mile and the Prix Marcel Boussac as a target for his best fillies - he has won both races on several occasions, and last year's Fillies' Mile winner Minding turned out to be his best filly this year. It's been a long time since he won either race with a filly that had finished well beaten in the Moyglare - Rumplestiltskin, Misty For Me and Minding had all won the Moyglare, while Listen, Found and Ballydoyle had all finished close up (beaten no more than 1½ lengths) in the Moyglare. You have to go back to 1998 to find one of his fillies that had finished well beaten (4½ lengths) in the Moyglare before winning one of the late-season Group 1's - and she scrambled home in a three-way photo to win a poorish renewal of the Fillies' Mile. It would be a bit of a surprise if Promise To Be True bounced back to win a Group 1 so soon after that disappointing run in the Moyglare. Perhaps they believe that she handles soft ground but is actually a much better filly on faster ground: it sounds like we may find out, one way or the other, next Sunday.
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I think AOB do consider the Boussac for his best filly eg Found and Ballydoyle (Moyglare starting sp and ground) - Minding progressed more the following year and ground lucky; Found was not right hence missing the English 1000G but stable number 1.
It would not surprise me if Promise To Be True shows her potential in the Boussac - if running and ground is suitable - the proximity to the Moyglare does. I also believe if the ground in the Boussac is unsuitable the Fillies' Mile a week later is on her agenda too; I think she is the stable number 1, all things being equal, at his stage. |
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TALAAYEB is my choice of top 2yo performer over the Fri-Sat-Sun period, despite running in a maiden. Topspeed figure of 86 compares favourably with Friday's Group 3, and only 6 entered in the Fillies Mile Group 1's 49 entries has a better Topspeed. Of those 6 only Dabyah has a better debut Topspeed, at 89. Breedings good, dam won 2yo debut and sole start, then next time out, on 3yo debut, opened with 2&1/2L win in the Fielden Stakes, beating the colts at the Craven meeting. Also dam is 1/2 Sis to 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati. She looked slick on debut, and I couldn't resist the 25/1 on offer post-race for the 1000.
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I was quite impressed by Talaayeb's win in the maiden on Saturday, but everything about her performance (led inside the final furlong, ran on strongly) and her pedigree suggests that she will be a middle distance performer, and I'll be surprised if she doesn't start off over around 10f next year. Her dam Sarayir, daughter of Height Of Fashion, is half-sister to the top-class middle-distance performers Nashwan, Unfuwain, Nayef, Mukddaam and Alwasmi, and she herself won over 10f. Talaayeb's sire Dansili has produced some smart filly milers (Emulous, Fallen For You, Giofra, Proviso), but these have usually been from quite speedily-bred (sprinter/miler) dams, and many of his best progeny (Flintshire, Harbinger, Rail Link, The Fugue, Passage Of Time, Winsili, Dank) have been 10-12f performers. [Miss France was one of his few stoutly-bred fillies to score at the top level over a mile.] Talaayeb looks a really bright prospect over 10f+ next year, and if she's going to make an impact in the classics I think it's more likely to be in the Oaks than in the Guineas.
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Correction: Sarayir is, of course, Talaayeb's grand-dam, not her dam. Her dam Rumoush (half-sister to 12f winner Mawatheeq and 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati) was third in the Oaks and second in the Park Hill Stakes over 14f. With that pedigree, I'd be amazed if she had the speed to make an impact over a mile as a three-year-old.
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...but I've been amazed before (eg by Blue Bunting winning the Guineas in 2011), so it wouldn't be for the first time!
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