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US Army Ranger

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By:
impossible123
When: 08 May 16 21:48
I do - The Derby with many more runners will not help UAR - but I'm more concerned about UAR not able to quicken away once joining PD despite going much the better of the two.
By:
marve
When: 08 May 16 21:57
Not being able to quicken? Off a slow pace he quickened past PD who had at least two lengths on him, they ran the last 4 furlongs in 48 seconds, that is quick for a mile and half race, what about the horses in behind who were left for dust

Whatever the reason for UAR not being more strong at the finish (some have mentioned the far rail is bad place to be at chester), but anyway whatever reason, it is not because he is unable to quicken

And as Eric has said, a slow pace is not what UAR wants anyway
By:
marve
When: 08 May 16 22:00
The problem is people are not giving PD any credit, if there was no port douglas in that race people would be saying omg look at ranger, while it is my opinion ranger is still the better horse, people dismissing ranger are also dismissing port douglas

The chester vase in my opinion is the best trial to date
By:
sykes10
When: 09 May 16 00:17
I suspose UAR's damsire is Dalakhani which is possibly more stamina than speed so UAR would be a lay for me although knowing my luck lately he'll probably go and win!
By:
impossible123
When: 09 May 16 09:55
O'Brien: Don't dismiss Us Army Ranger

Aiden O'Brien has given his full backing to UAR....and insisting pundits are wrong to knock the son of Galileo. UAR would have been a near 8 length winner if he had not run Port Douglas in the race, and would be a very short price for The Derby."
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 09 May 16 10:13
I backed Port Douglas.  However after reading what AOB just said today in the Racingpost,  UAR is the no.1 choice.  And Coolmore would want this to win for maximum stud earnings. 5-1 is too short anyway...i;ll back in running during the race.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 09 May 16 10:15
I guess without Port Douglas US ARMY ranger would be a 6-4 shot for the derby.  AOB is probably correct
By:
eric_morris
When: 09 May 16 10:50
Think he'd be around 2/1 the Derby if O'Brien hadnt wanted him to have a race at Chester against the 2nd fav his stablemate in only his second racecourse outing. He would have won cantering without Port Douglas in the race. Great he was as US Army Ranger learned much more for the Derby having a battle.
By:
sintonian
When: 09 May 16 10:55
So have you backed him again since Chester if you believe that?
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 09 May 16 12:16
I;m not topping up on PD as I am not sure he will run TBH.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 May 16 22:46
I think PD will head to the Epsom Derby especially after the "scare" he gave to UAR; O'Brien had 3 runners last year and I'd expect a similar number at least from him eg UAR, PD, Idaho and Shogun.
By:
eric_morris
When: 11 May 16 07:55
Doubt PD will run in the Derby
By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 16 08:19
I beg to differ, assuming all is well; POD has improved since upped in trip; he has no other engagement prior except The Epsom Derby unlike The Gurkha who is France bound; he also has the best credential of all the O'Brien's contingent; he is next best - after UAR - in the betting market of the O'Brien's with BV, the business associate of the stable who did not price up Minding for the Epsom Derby with/out a run.

POD might be "friendless" now but could be massively supported prior to and on Derby Day similar to Goivanni Canelleto who was backed from 16/1 and finished at 6/1 on the day.
By:
geoff m
When: 11 May 16 09:32
So AOBs no 1 US Army Ranger only just beats a tenderley ridden(seasonal debut) stablemate receiving 4lbs .Yet they will leave PD in the stable come Derby day.
IF US Army Ranger has a good chance in The Derby then so does PD>
If folks seriously think PD wont run in The Derby its time to take up another sport.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 May 16 14:35
If folks seriously think PD wont run in The Derby its time to take up another sport.

Coolmore and breeding values mate.
By:
geoff m
When: 11 May 16 14:41
Yep which bigger race are they saving him for?
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 May 16 14:46
Both are capable of winning the Derby.  As we saw with Bondi Beach rerouted to Ireland to win an easier race, AOB is not afraid of making these kind of decisions.  Nothing surprises me in racing.
By:
geoff m
When: 11 May 16 15:00
This is THE DERBY and as you state its about stallion values.
A place in The Derby would enhance PDs reputation more than winning any other race they could save it for.
Irish Derby/Eclipse can be  be on the agenda after
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 May 16 15:03
i agree, don't trust aob though, esp on what he says 30-40% of the time
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 May 16 15:04
what i meant is the value of an unbeaten derby winner is probably worth double than if PD were to win.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 May 16 15:05
PD is multiple group  winner in the making though.
By:
geoff m
When: 11 May 16 15:08
I dont trust any of em .Greed .
What they say and what they do can be taken with a pinch of salt.
But if you put yourself in their shoes what would you do with PD and usually find if you go with your gut instinct that makes commonsense you wont be far wrong.
PD will be a vital part of The Ballydoyle team as he can travel up front and therefore miss what could be a messy race in behind in what is a very open Derby
By:
geoff m
When: 11 May 16 15:10
Im sure Seamie will let Ryan past again on the line if he needs toLaughLaughLaugh
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 May 16 15:10

May 11, 2016 -- 10:10AM, geoff m wrote:


Im sure Seamie will let Ryan past again on the line if he needs to


it's not their decision to as before.

By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 16 15:20
PD will line up in The Derby - there is only one Derby; what happened at Chester will not be replicated at Epsom, if so, connections of PD and UAR could be ostracised by the racing public and fraternity.
By:
geoff m
When: 11 May 16 15:29
tongue in cheek impossible.
Coolmore wont mind PD beating US AR if they are 1st and 2nd.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 May 16 15:33
as long as pd lines up i don't care.as long as i get my money's worth with a run  at 25-1 i don't care
By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 16 16:23
I'd like to think the AOB/Coolmore boys will not exercise the same wilful disregard for the racing public and punters of those shown by the WPM/RW/RR clan; the Derby is so open this year and the Coolmore team will be represented by their best "bullets", I'm certain of that. And they also like a flutter on race day.
By:
Howellsy
When: 11 May 16 16:49
PD is not good enough to win the Derby. He has raced too many times for too low a rating. The people who are equating his chances with those of US Army Ranger are failing to grasp the substantial scope for improvement of classic colt between 2nd and 3rd starts. This is not to say USAR will make massive improvement or that he will win the Derby - it is just to outline the logic behind believing he could win the Derby whereas PD can't.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 11 May 16 17:08
r are failing to grasp the substantial scope for improvement of classic colt between 2nd and 3rd starts

True. On its third run So Mi Dar probably improved 12lb today and was green.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 16 19:21
It was PD's 1st race as a 3yr old and over 12f; if UAR is 5/1 for the Derby then PD ought to be nearer to that price and not 24/1 given the former was receiving 4lbs from PD.

PD has improved from 2 to 3 over a longer trip.
By:
eric_morris
When: 11 May 16 19:25
The two biggest factors for improvement for US Army Ranger for me are, firstly his inexperience yet he still beat a very experienced (by comparison) stablemate a mile clear of the other runners off a slow early pace which means you have to show a good turn of foot as nothing is slowing down as they would off a fast pace. You would have to be impressed with this from a cruiser which he obviously is.

The second factor is the track at Chester does not suit cruisers. The tight bends mean you are slotted in position and your pace is determined by the front runner. If you are a cruiser who can live with a strong pace and then kick off that (even though you are really slowing down over the last couple of furlongs) then you are not limited to the pace in behind a front runner around the turns of Chester and you can pressurise the lead to increase in pace on a more open track. This pressure from US Army Ranger on the lead on a more open track is what we havent seen yet from him. If he can cruise long enough without being let down too early then he could be coming to the 2 furlong pole at Epsom on the bit with the others rowing away (i think Midterm is a similar type hopefully he will show that tomorrow).
By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 16 19:38
With So Mi Dar's scintillating performance in the Musidora, and assuming she avoids Minding and turns up in The Derby instead it would be extremely difficult for the colts to concede her 3lbs, unless Midterm pulverises his Dante field tomorrow; So Mi Dar is entered and could so easily run in The Derby.
By:
eric_morris
When: 11 May 16 19:41
The 3 in behind were bunched for second which devalues So Mi Dar's form today for me.
By:
eric_morris
When: 11 May 16 19:42
Good enough for an Oaks maybe but not the Derby with the colts
By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 16 20:05
"Good enough for an Oaks maybe but not the Derby with the colts"

So Mi Dar beat 2 colts easily last time and the same two colts won their respective Epsom trials. And today's annihilation of her field especially Fireglow, has re-emphasised the two fillies ie So Mi Dar and Minding, of their superiority over the colts I firmly believe.

If I was the owner of So Mi Dar I'd go for The Derby as it's not only an easier race to win, the winner' prize money is also £300k more.
By:
eric_morris
When: 11 May 16 20:12
So Mi Dar
Fireglow 4l
Promising Run hd
Harlequeen hd

The 3 in behind finished together suggesting they arent that good, so for me this devalues the 4 length win
By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 16 20:26
Not necessarily, in this case it showed the winner is a class above the others and special.
By:
G1_Jockey_4
When: 12 May 16 12:12
harlequeen ran no sort of race.
would have got a hell of a lot closer has she settled in the first half of the race.

also looked like she needed further.
By:
eric_morris
When: 12 May 16 17:52
This is the reason i covered my positions on the race with Wings of Desire at prices up to 27 last night. If I was the owner I would be asking why he cost me £75,000 supplement just to keep a low profile with the horse. Suppose Gosden can tell him to use the Dante winnings but the fact he ran him in the dante means he had the Derby in mind. They knew as Dettori swapped mounts from Foundation. Gosden will get away with it as the owner will be chuffed to have the Dante winner and Derby favourite.

eric_morris 22 Mar 16 23:44 Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,167 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
The flat is tougher now as Gosden is very poor in giving out accurate information on his steers. Rare Derby and Arc double winner Golden Horn was underplayed by Gosden right up until the Dante imo intentionally. Not for financial reasons but dont think he likes the pressure of having the best. This costs antepost punters financially the bookies had a virtual skinner on the Derby thanks to Gosden not letting the public know the real quality he was seeing at home. These are the worst type of trainers for antepost punters.
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