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US Army Ranger

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Replies: 127
By:
impossible123
When: 05 May 16 22:25
lewisham ranger,

Probably.

I do not think the winner, despite going ominously better, can quicken off any pace.
By:
eric_morris
When: 05 May 16 22:32
He will be much much better off a stronger pace he has a very high cruising speed (as does Midterm) a great engine.

Tight track like Chester he handled it really well on only his second run ever against his very experienced stablemate. There will be a lot doing the washing before US Army Ranger is even asked at Epsom. Great run with the pair going well clear.
By:
eric_morris
When: 05 May 16 22:39
Moore mentioned narrowly beating subsequent King George winner Nathaniel on Treasure Island in this race and we know one turned out a lot better than the other. Chester is tight constantly on the turn so will suit terriers more than horses who need to be let down late.

Also remember horse having his first ever run winning narrowly also from Nathaniel ... Frankel. Really not sure how the reaction came about to todays performance...the desire for many (what price does Nick Luck have for her ha ha) for Minding to run might have a lot to do with it.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 05 May 16 22:41
whatever the politics ryan will ride the one he thinks will win, im sure of that !
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 05 May 16 23:10
it's not about politics, he has to ride the coolmore horse if they insist. they are his retainer.

if it's clear that midterm is far better than anything they have (say if he comes out and wins the dante by half the track) then you could conceivably imagine a scenario where they say go on then ryan, you can ride him, but that would be entirely their discretion.

in any case I don't think US army ranger is winning the derby. on yesterday's evidence hee doesn't look anything like good enough. O'Brien also looked quite irritable in the interview with Nick Luck afterwards- much more than I'd seen him before. I got the impression that he was expecting a lot more from the horse and was quite obviously disappointed.
By:
kincsem
When: 06 May 16 00:47
I'm guessing this is a St Leger horse, or a cup horse.
It could win the Derby if the ground is soft or worse.
By:
eric_morris
When: 06 May 16 04:50
In the interview imo he was getting irritated with Luck's negativity with the questions after his horses had just slaughtered the field, including Midterms 3rd and 5th in the Sandown trial by much further. I saw his point of view and was actually wondering during the interview whether Luck has backed Minding for the Derby.
By:
eric_morris
When: 06 May 16 04:57
Without his stablemate in the race, who everyone is totally underestimating certainly in the context of his suitability for Chester (I wouldnt back this runner up for Epsom), US Army Ranger would still be favourite for the Derby. A horse with less ability than the runner up stuck to Midterm for longer at Sandown. There is an agenda of Minding running from the press and this will pop up every time an O'Brien horse has run in a trial.

US Army Ranger is definitely about the right value at 5s for the Derby after that showing a high cruising speed and excellent balance around Chester and it is now Midterm who is too short on current achievements.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 06 May 16 07:36
Agree with pretty much everything Eric has said - there I said it.Shocked
By:
impossible123
When: 06 May 16 08:08
The comparison made between UAR and Midterm solely on the distance the former beat High Ground is misleading for several reasons eg the difference in distance between the two races, High Ground did not settle hence weakened over 1f out and could possibly be more effective over 10f instead of 12f, and the going. But it is evidently clear Midterm can quicken off softish ground, would appreciate further than 10f.

UAR and Midterm both have only two races each and travel well but the latter can quicken and has a better constitution I believe. Hence, should it come down to between the two in The Derby Midterm for me, any time.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 06 May 16 08:32
lewisham, my understanding was ryan is retained by coolemore when not required by micheal stoute, it will be ryans choice anyway he has such clout and fair enough when your as good as he is.

aidan will want donnacha on the ranger
By:
impossible123
When: 06 May 16 09:01
Donnacha the new Joseph!
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 06 May 16 09:16
Fashion Fever Pat Smullen is riding Midterm next week in the Dante (if free) which would suggest than Ryan has to ride for Coolmore first
By:
Sankara
When: 06 May 16 09:57
The two horses beaten by Midterm pulled much too hard to be reliable guides to the form. Both USAR and Midterm look too short to me (Tirmizi the value in my opinion), though the former is much the likelier winner.
By:
TheCollector
When: 06 May 16 11:14
Holding 10s US Army Ranger and 8s Midterm and been very pleased with what I have seen so far. Think the only other fly in the ointment is Foundation who could run very well in the Dante.

Forget Minding. Won't run. Simple as that.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 May 16 11:33
TheCollector,

You could be right about Minding not running in The Derby - too much to lose for Coolmore - even the Coolmore "betting" associate has not priced her up at all.

Regards Foundation, he's the forgotten horse post the Craven run, and he could still be backed at 37/1 here - nearly 3x that of on-street bookies.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 06 May 16 11:39
Forget Minding, The Gurkha and Masat as all will not run. I have backed Port Douglas and Harzand.  Nothing wrong with UAR's performance yesterday, however, it will need blinkers to improve for the Derby.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 May 16 11:39
TheCollector

Regards Minding participation in The Derby: you could make a quick 40% within a month through "arbitrage" given the huge discrepancy between the prices here and on-street bookies.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 06 May 16 11:40
and Massat as all will not run
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 06 May 16 11:41
Forget Minding, 
The Gurkha
and and Massat
as all will be
.... N/Rs
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 06 May 16 11:43
backed PD and..
..Massaat..at 20s

UAR will be a force 
with blinkers on IMO.
But 5-1 is too short
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 06 May 16 12:22
What is with the funny writing greed

if they have the blinkers on the ranger even more reason to avoid the horse in my view, I tend to have an inbuilt bias against anything wearing headgear, although it didn't stop ruler of the world who wore cheekpieces when he won his derby.

As to whether or not Ryan Moore rides Midterm in the derby, as I said before my understanding was that Coolmore have first claim on his services, I could be wrong about that though.

I seem to recall a few years ago when Authorized was favourite for the derby there was a general sense of relief when Godolphin decided not to run anything in the race, as at the time Dettori was their retained rider, I think they tapped into public sentiment as Frankie had never won the race before and it was clear to everyone and his dog that Authorized was going to win it.

Incredibly that was the year that O'Brien had eight (!) runners in the derby.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 06 May 16 12:40
no idea.
wtf happened to me?

AOB did say UAR might
need blinkers for chester
as it is too green still.

who knows??
wouldn;t back any of the favs
at those prices.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 May 16 14:08
Moore is riding for the Queen instead of Coolmore - thinking about the Knighthood perhaps?
By:
eric_morris
When: 08 May 16 14:49
After the Derrinstown US Army Ranger still looks their no 1 hope with a stronger pace at Epsom ideal.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 08 May 16 17:09
You correct in suggesting the Chester Vase was run at snails pace for 80& of the race, and US Army Ranger may well be the real deal but IMO he is too too inexperienced to win at Epsom.  My gut feeling is that UAR could be scratched from the Derby.
By:
eric_morris
When: 08 May 16 17:17
They're all inexperienced at Epsom. Its just who has the most natural ability on the day. He has the cruising speed and the balance and has arguably beaten the most experienced rival so far in his stablemate with them pulling well clear.

Good thing is that race wont have taken much out of US Army Ranger and will have primed him. A stronger pace and less running round bends will see his cruising speed burn them off to better effect at Epsom.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 May 16 17:41
I think UAR will go to The Derby solely because of the potential value it could bring to his connections but is an unlikely winner. Despite his high cruising speed he just cannot quicken and sustain it at 12f. Maybe a longer trip like The Leger might see him to best effect.

As such, which is O'Brien's current number one Derby horse if it is not UAR? Port Douglas, perhaps.
By:
eric_morris
When: 08 May 16 17:49
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10274326/joseph-obrien-remains-sweet-on-us-army-ranger
By:
sintonian
When: 08 May 16 18:24
IF THERE were a Golden Horn or an Australia around I could have half understood the early call the connections of Galileo Gold took in avoiding the Derby. However, given the paucity of high-class colts this year, I can't help but think they have made a hugely premature decision.

I know I'm biased, having backed him for the Derby after the Guineas, but before the Newmarket race all the talk from his trainer was that he was a ten-furlong horse and that he would be worried about him over a mile. To quote "on pedigree, there's a chance he's a Derby horse and I think he would have stayed ten furlongs last year".

Of course he showed himself to be a fast horse in the Guineas, but how good was that race? Surely if you have a chance of winning the Derby - the biggest Flat race in the world - you should always have a shot at it.

I can't believe Al Shaqab Racing and Harry Herbert are comfortable with the decision of keeping him at a mile and, while I fully understand the chances of Galileo Gold being as good at a mile and half as he is at a mile are slim, that most certainly doesn't rule him out of winning the Derby.

Ranger is no danger

Of course if there were a potential superstar in the line-up who was a certain stayer you could argue Galileo Gold would be better targeted at Royal Ascot, but that is certainly not the case so far and I cannot believe there is anyone out there who can have any interest in backing US Army Ranger at around 5-1.

There was a lot of hullabaloo about the ride Seamie Heffernan gave the runner-up Port Douglas in the Chester Vase in the week and it was entirely justified. However, I think the point that was missed is that twice Port Douglas came off the rail with US Army Ranger going through and the winner never had to go around a single horse.

In short, US Army Ranger had the perfect trip throughout the Vase yet really could have lost to a horse who was giving him 4lb. Now I get he might improve, but so might everything else in the Derby field, and on what he showed at Chester I wouldn't be interested at backing him at 25-1, let alone 5-1.

The Dee Stakes and Lingfield Derby trial threw up nothing and Midterm has been shuffled into Derby favouritism on the back of winning, admittedly in good style, at Sandown. He could be the real deal and the Dante will be a crucial piece of evidence, but at this stage I would back Galileo Gold to beat any horse I've seen over the Derby trip and shutting the door so early was a staggeringly strange decision.
By:
sintonian
When: 08 May 16 18:25
Strong stuff from Tom Segal.

I agree fwiw. You'd have to be a fcukinh klingon to back him.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 08 May 16 18:37
lol klingon. classic.  read that sportinglife article too, seems odd that everyone in ballydoyle is bigging him up yet 'lost' last time out (albeit to a very good horse).  i'd be a backer at 20s too, defo not 5s
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 08 May 16 18:40
However, my guess on US Army Ranger is that they only really started training him seriously 6-7 weeks ago.  Everyhting before that he has probably done nothing so hence the JOB comments.
By:
marve
When: 08 May 16 19:19
Tom is going to have to eat humble pie, ranger might not win but he sure as well will be not far off at all

This guy is probably crying because his insiders fed him wrong info about galileo gold

Anybody who writes ranger off clearly cant read horse racing, they ran a final 4 furlongs at chester in 48 seconds, for a mile and a half race off a slow pace, that is very good

Every other trail so far is producing blanket finishes apart from chester, everyone seems to forget the line of form through midterm too with ranger

Yes wide open derby so far, but writing any horse off at moment is stupid
By:
eric_morris
When: 08 May 16 19:58
Tom already had his say with Galileo Gold imo.
By:
eric_morris
When: 08 May 16 20:20
Still prefer Midterm but US Army Ranger can improve for a stronger pace and think he will run very well.

Antepost is a great leveller as unlike day of race where inside info can be a great advantage to Segal, antepost is about gut feeling well in advance of a race. This takes away his advantage as too much inside info can actually be a disadvantage antepost if you are used to relying on it. Your eyes, experience and gut feeling are all you need for antepost.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 May 16 20:43
If one fancies UAR one must also keep Port Douglas on side as the latter was conceding 4lbs, 3x better price here plus a less "professional" ride from his pilot in The Chester Vase. If Midterm is turned over by Foundation - the forgotten horse - in The Dante which is not inconceivable the 'fav' in The Derby could start at 5/1 at best, I think.
By:
eric_morris
When: 08 May 16 21:02
How did you think the track made a difference to Port Douglas with regards his running style and also the pace he set with regards the finish?

I think a horse with a high cruising speed is disadvantaged by a slow early pace and also by a tight track. Instead of the pace winding up to the advantage of the cruising horse, the turns are going to slow the pace as there is more emphasis on keeping balanced and can ultimately lead to a sprint off the last turn. The advantage of the cruiser is removed on a tight track imo whereas normally on a more open track he might be getting others pushing to remove their kick.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 May 16 21:23
UAR looked as if he could get pass Port Douglas (PD) in the straight whenever he wanted and be gone within a few strides but he didn't. Instead, Heffernan deliberately came off the rails and allowed UAR through; if UAR had not had that "help" which he will not in The Derby should the same two horses be in contention towards the end UAR would have had to come round PD and probably lost at least a length doing so. And on level weights with many more runners in The Derby I think PD would have the edge over UAR given their difference in running style.

I also believe the inability of UAR to quicken and pull away is a concern for his backers.
By:
eric_morris
When: 08 May 16 21:30
Do you not see my points that the early pace of the race and the track could have affected the finish? Incidentally they both went well clear so both showed a good turn of foot against the rest of the field.
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