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eric_morris
03 Apr 16 17:31
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Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 7,903 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
Think we might be seeing the start of something today. Green as grass and found the gears against a Dubawi on ground with give in it to go past him after making a fair bit of ground up. Pinched the 14s after the race hopefully the Derrinstown or Chester before the Derby.

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Replies: 127
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 03 Apr 16 17:52
Just one more run before the Derbi
Hum
Entered in the Dante i noticed

Wink
By:
pearcebuff
When: 03 Apr 16 18:40
I was impressed, start of ante post favoritism - i have got on at 10s.
By:
eric_morris
When: 03 Apr 16 19:10
Kept his balance when having to hustle past his stablemate to come through a tight gap augurs good for the balance needed at Epsom.
By:
Beryl
When: 03 Apr 16 19:35
Let's hope he is a bit more robust than his siblings Words and Nevis who had very short careers.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 04 Apr 16 09:55
Was a very nice introduction and he will relish the Derby trip for sure.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Apr 16 11:00
One winning run and the "Derby" trumpet is being blown in earnest by AP O'Brien - what happened to Ol' Man River, John F Kennedy and Highland Reel?
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 04 Apr 16 11:06
Would need to improve about a furlong.
By:
penzance
When: 04 Apr 16 19:22
short as 6/1 with some firms.
Anyone else trained it would be
longer,imo.
By:
one to note
When: 04 Apr 16 20:32
very green in the parade ring and you would expect a lot of improvement- long way to go to G1 but that was a decent performance
By:
geoff m
When: 17 Apr 16 16:22
Ashaq hardly advertised the form.
4/1 for The Derby someones having a laugh
By:
mr_sykes
When: 17 Apr 16 16:24
Ashaq could possibly have bounced although USAR wouldnt be for me..
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Apr 16 17:36
I still believe Us Army Ranger is just another one of APB's hyped horses - until he runs in a proper Derby Trial eg The Dante - done nothing apart from beating a short priced 'fav' / runner from another Irish stable of past mega reputation; I'd still back Foundation for The Dante over Us Army Ranger and/or Epsom Derby given known form. At 9/2 it is a blindingly silly price for and only for the O'Brien faithful (or foolish) I'm afraid.
By:
x20
When: 17 Apr 16 18:26
Remember IG
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Apr 16 22:23
I remember IG (ran 4x - won 2 lost 2, totally ground dependent), John F Kennedy, Ol' Man River, Highland Reel, and many others too. And at 9/2 Us Army Ranger is an absolute stinker of a price having achieved so little, and until winning a recognised trial eg The Dante, it is best not to indulge.
By:
x20
When: 18 Apr 16 20:23
won when it mattered
By:
ffs
When: 22 Apr 16 00:34

Apr 4, 2016 -- 6:00AM, impossible123 wrote:


One winning run and the "Derby" trumpet is being blown in earnest by AP O'Brien - what happened to Ol' Man River, John F Kennedy and Highland Reel?


lol, Highland Reel might have monstered Goodwood as a 2yo, but no-one ever said he was top-class, that said he still ran a strong 4L back in the Irish Champion, winning the Secretariat and Hong Kong Vase, and yet he was no superstar.

Aidan O'Brien has so many amazing horses I'm not surprised you got confused, poor fella.

(though not really this year, not the Derby anyway). It's that simple.

By:
impossible123
When: 22 Apr 16 09:05
ffs

Highland Reel is a good horse but not as good as APB alluded to. Also, we are talking about the Epsom Derby ie 1m 4f.

Highland Reel was touted as a Guineas, Derby and even a possible St Leger runner; Highland Reel ran in the Irish Champion and was trounced by Golden Horn, and Jack Hobbs in the Irish Derby; I do realise Highland Reel won a Gp3, Gp2 and 2 Gp1 (overseas) but against runners that were not top class apart from Flintshire (a 2nd specialist)- Flintshire also had had a hard Arc prior, a race Highland Reel did not run in.

I'm sorry if you think on what Us Army Ranger has achieved so far he's a worthy Epsom Derby 'fav' at a 9/2 price then each to his own; if you also think APB does not regularly ooze uber confidence about his juvenile charges with a win or two in Ireland alone eg Ol Man River, John F Kennedy, etc, then each to his own again.

Sorry, until Us Army Ranger (UAR) runs in the Dante at York or a Derby Trial in England I'd be extremely cautious about backing UAR for the Epsom Derby at 9/2.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 22 Apr 16 14:18
Decent if unspectacular performance from Midterm today. 6/1 for the Derby should be a joke price but there is a paucity of candidates this year.

Who has first dibs on Ryan Moore, Coolmore or Stoute/Abdullah -  or is he a free agent who can ride whichever he thinks has the best chance.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Apr 16 15:46
A respectable run from Midterm today nonetheless a proper trial is needed to justify a 6/1 quote on current form; Us Army Ranger, Foundation and Midterm, if so, very interesting and which will one choose? For me, Foundation - strictly on form.
By:
Sankara
When: 22 Apr 16 15:56
Paucity of candidates after one trial doesn't mean paucity of candidates after all of them. Two joke prices at the head of the market imo.
By:
eric_morris
When: 22 Apr 16 16:35
Dont think Foundation will be within 10 lengths of the Derby winner myself.
By:
ffs
When: 22 Apr 16 18:40

Apr 22, 2016 -- 4:05AM, impossible123 wrote:


ffsHighland Reel is a good horse but not as good as APB alluded to. Also, we are talking about the Epsom Derby ie 1m 4f.Highland Reel was touted as a Guineas, Derby and even a possible St Leger runner; Highland Reel ran in the Irish Champion and was trounced by Golden Horn, and Jack Hobbs in the Irish Derby; I do realise Highland Reel won a Gp3, Gp2 and 2 Gp1 (overseas) but against runners that were not top class apart from Flintshire (a 2nd specialist)- Flintshire also had had a hard Arc prior, a race Highland Reel did not run in. I'm sorry if you think on what Us Army Ranger has achieved so far he's a worthy Epsom Derby 'fav' at a 9/2 price then each to his own; if you also think APB does not regularly ooze uber confidence about his juvenile charges with a win or two in Ireland alone eg Ol Man River, John F Kennedy, etc, then each to his own again.Sorry, until Us Army Ranger (UAR) runs in the Dante at York or a Derby Trial in England I'd be extremely cautious about backing UAR for the Epsom Derby at 9/2.


come off it - Highland Reel did impress connections with his 2yo Goodwood win but was never considered an Epsom horse, he was always going to Chantilly as he wasn't thought to be a true 1m4f horse. He is still probably best at 10f. If you paid any attention to what I wrote on this forum last year you'd have seen I was a very keen treble backer of Golden Horn to do the Derby, Irish Champion and Arc (worked out at 50/1).

As for OMR and JFK - diff story, who knows what happened !? ..

And while Highland Reel didn't run well in the Irish Derby despite being actually fancied to by some connections, his wins in Secretariat and HK Vase were tremendous - all that said I'm no fan of his, he does well on tightish tracks but a Grade 1.5 horse for me.

If you took the time to read what I posted then you'd know I have no interest in AOB runners this Derby ... I said he had one exceptional runner, but that's for the Guineas !!! (AFB)

That said, given his record in the race and the huge number of middle distance runners he has, I'll be watching to see what he come up with and I'll definitely bide my time and watch what all of the trials show - I haven't spent much time on the Derby so far because I don't see anything with the standard required to be of major interest, and quite likely something else will come along.

By:
impossible123
When: 22 Apr 16 19:40
eric_morris

I wouldn't be so sure. Foundation has the best form of those at the front of the Epsom Derby betting market; my main concern is the likelihood of Foundation staying the Derby trip but connections had a similar doubt last year with Golden Horn, the rest is history.

As a matter of interest who do you think would be the most likeliest winner of the Epsom Derby then?
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 22 Apr 16 21:12
Foundation is a unlikely to stay well enough to to win a Derby in my view. Golden Horn was bred to stay at least 10 furlongs whereas Foundation has more of a miler's pedigree.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 22 Apr 16 21:16
*Foundation is unlikely to stay well enough to win a Derby
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 22 Apr 16 21:55
Surely the question with foundation is whether he will be good enough, i know that ground at newmarket wouldn't have suited but it was a wretched performance, i wonder if he doesn't quite have the tactical speed for the derby, could see him getting caught in a pocket or blocked in and that was even if he stayed the trip which i now think is doubtfull. I was quite positive on him before but i am starting to lose faith.
By:
Madhu
When: 22 Apr 16 23:59
I wouldn’t put a sausage on Foundation even if he was 50/1+.

Although his extended pedigree has G1 Prix Royal-Oak winner Ardross and G1 St Leger scorer Scorpion a few generations back, I can’t see Zoffany producing a Derby winner. Zoffany’s sire Dansili needs a dam’s sire with staying influence to produce a top class MD horse. In Foundation’s case he has Polish Precedent and the Danzig line to rely on. Not much hope there. I also think he hits the ground quite hard and would much prefer give in the ground which wouls seem unlikely on Derby day. Moreover the winner of the Royal Lodge Stakes has not produced a Derby winner since Benny the Dip. Good looking horse though.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 23 Apr 16 00:32
He should stay 10 furlongs no problem but I think he is unlikely to stay the 12 furlongs at Epsom, and if you don't truly stay you don't win the Derby.
By:
eric_morris
When: 23 Apr 16 00:34
Foundation simply doesnt look good enough, not enough class he is well over-rated, lacks scope think what we have seen is as good as he is. Gosden will have another candidate in the wings for the Derby he is keeping us waiting.

I have a couple for profit in the race and they are Midterm and US Army Ranger.

I thought it was a tremendous performance today by Midterm and he should be strong Derby favourite after that. Everything you could want from a seasonal debut and more. Looks real class to me and will come on from that a ton just as US Army Ranger will. Midterm's race had a real quality feel to it the way he came going much easier than the rest, which will help keep his balance at Epsom as the jockey wont have to get serious until late, then the front two quickened well away off a decent pace testing Midterm's resolve, turn of foot and staying power under pressure. He was still going away at the line 6s is great value as think after his next trial he could be under 2s.

To answer your question impossible123 i think Midterm will win the Derby.
By:
eric_morris
When: 23 Apr 16 00:36
OMR and JFK didnt train on so dont think they can be compared with US Army Ranger who has shown a great turn of foot to win this season. The opposition is questionable in his race which is another reason why i prefer Midterm.
By:
eric_morris
When: 23 Apr 16 01:18
UAE Prince is the most interesting horse to see now.
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Apr 16 14:05
I thought the Ballysax was a better trial. Looked two very good horses in first and second to me.
By:
ffs
When: 25 Apr 16 21:49

Apr 23, 2016 -- 9:05AM, sintonian wrote:


I thought the Ballysax was a better trial. Looked two very good horses in first and second to me.


Idaho v eye catching, great line of breeding, always thought a lot of. Looked like he could come on a ton for that race, big powerful horse, lots of Danehill about him, could be a big player this season. Not crazy about the Weld horse, thought the ground helped him reel the other in. Good Spot though

By:
FELTFAIR
When: 05 May 16 07:59
Aiden very bullish about this one at Chester yesterday. I`m still to be convinced and have had a little each way on Dazzler`s mount.
By:
impossible123
When: 05 May 16 12:37
Is Hit It A Bomb ok? There seems to be no news about him at all. He's not injured I hope.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 05 May 16 20:49
Still not convinced. Improved from debut but still needs to improve markedly again.
By:
impossible123
When: 05 May 16 21:32
Moore might not have a difficult decision to make regards his Derby mount if Midterm excels next week.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 05 May 16 21:38
But he's claimed by coolmore isn't he? So doesn't get the choice.
By:
Try My Best
When: 05 May 16 22:21
Think the winner had a bit more in hand than it looked.
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