We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1179 comments are related to the topic:
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,179
|
By:
If Treve had been beaten in the Prix Vermeille I'm sure afterwards it would've been said no 5yo had ever won the race, no horse had ever won the race twice, Treve was beaten in the race last year and she was only using this year's race as a prep so wouldn't have been at peak, therefore no way should she have been a 2/5 chance. As it happened she bolted up so none of this was mentioned. However, just because she won so easily still didn't prove whether she was the right price or not.
|
|
By:
Flintshire gve 9ibs to GH worth 6 lengths.He was beaten by just 2 lengths.Thats the point.Take it or leave it figgis.
|
|
By:
I can't understand your argument in your last post figgis.Care to try again?
|
|
By:
still didn't prove whether she was the right price or not.
I think this is what your point was about. Am I right? A price can't be proved to be right or wrong either before or after a race but it can be judged to be so. And doing so before the race is what this betting game boils down to, does it not figgis? |
|
By:
The argument is that when analysing a result yes some things can be learned but when a short priced favourite is beaten the explanation afterwards is always that the price was wrong or too short and reasons are put forward, yet when the favourite goes in it is simply accepted that the right horse won and price either isn't mentioned or it is even suggested the fav should've actually been shorter.
If you look at a race as a puzzle to be solved then this is how things are viewed. But the truth is everything has a chance and a price and whether a horse wins or loses one result alone can never prove whether a horse was the correct price or not. |
|
By:
If Treve had won then I guarantee that afterwards nobody would try to argue that no matter that she won she was still too short a price. If she had won than I'd have won too but it still wouldn't prove that I'd got a value bet, no more than a loser proves a horse was poor value.
|
|
By:
when a short priced favourite is beaten the explanation afterwards is always that the price was wrong
Is it? Who by But the truth is everything has a chance and a price and whether a horse wins or loses one result alone can never prove whether a horse was the correct price or not. I agree. But you can still judge. If Treve had won then I guarantee that afterwards nobody would try to argue that no matter that she won she was still too short a price You can't speak for everyone fggis. I would have still said that the price wan't right. |
|
By:
If I am offered 4/6 about odds or evens at roulette I would still argue that was the wrong price no matter what the outcome. Using your judgement is what we do, or it should be.
|
|
By:
Is it? Who by
On most threads on here containing a short priced loser. I would have still said that the price wan't right. Well I've never seen you argue that point after a short price winner, maybe that it was too short for you to want to back it, but never that the price was wrong. If a horse is correctly priced at even money (which can never actually be proved but just for argument's sake) but gets beat then the result post mortem more often concludes that the horse was overrated or underpriced or there were warning signs beforehand that should've been heeded. When in reality such horses will get beat 50% of the time, so it's hardly an unexpected outcome. |
|
By:
[Well I've never seen you argue that point after a short price winner, maybe that it was too short for you to want to back it, but never that the price was wrong.
I've been on here since 2001 and apparently I have made 2589 replies in that time. Have you read them all? If you have, thank you.Your powers in recalling what I have written in that time are a lot better than mine. |
|
By:
I said I've never seen it, not that you hadn't done it. If Treve had won in the style she did last year then what were the odds of anybody who opposed her posting after the event that yes she won but she should have been a bigger price? I'd say about 50/1. It would make the Treve layer look a sore loser so it's unlikely to happen, still doesn't mean they wouldn't have been right though.
|
|
By:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10019000/anthony-oppenheimer-keen-to-run-golden-horn-in-breeders-cup-turf
Owner-breeder Anthony Oppenheimer remains "fairly keen" to give his stunning Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe hero Golden Horn one last hurrah in the Breeders' Cup Turf. One race too far, anybody?  |
|
By:
Sheikh Mohammed (Godolphin) owns 50% of Golden Horn!
|
|
By:
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/timeform-sectional-debrief-special-arc-weekend-2015-5102015
The Timeform sectional methodology suggests Treve should have finished upsides Golden Horn given the pace and positioning. As a Treve backer looking for any possible excuses I'm still not convinced after taking everything else into account but interesting nonetheless. |
|
By:
A value bet is a good bet whether it wins or loses.
A poor value bet is a bad whether it wins or loses. |
|
By:
A thread yesterday asked if Treve was a banker I wrote no as I thought something would beat her. I had figured her price in my reply, so to me she was too short to back even if she won. I did not have a bet on the race as I could not find value on anything I liked. It doesn't matter what won I could not find a bet which means I thought Golden Horn was not value at 6-1.
|
|
By:
http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake
A couple of good points made By Kevin Blake. I said myself that it was a good ride by Dettori but there is something in what he says here. One of the reasons it seemed so praiseworthy was simply that we're so used to most jockeys having a sheeplike mentality and following the pack instead of adapting to the pace of a race and being proactive if necessary. I also agree with his other point about the tactics employed by Treve's connections. Not that it necessarily would've made any difference to the winning result but it was piss poor all round really. I've said it before but is it really so difficult to get a pacemaking jockey to execute the job he's (presumably) been instructed to do? |
|
By:
Sheikh Mohammed (Godolphin) owns 50% of Golden Horn!
Now we know why Jack Hobbs didn't run |
|
By:
The Dettori ride on GH was very good but it was clearly a well thought through plan involving owner and trainer as well and Dettori didn't have to do anything exceptional to win. Smullen on the other hand beat Dettori in a race where 2 good fillies were as evenly matched as it is possible to be and he won while Dettori lost.
|
|
By:
A couple of good points made By Kevin Blake.
The truth is perhaps that she isn’t quite as good as she once was and while she almost certainly retained enough ability to have gone very close in this year’s Arc in a more truly-run race under a more efficient ride, it was largely the decisions that her rider and the rider of her pacemaker made on the day that restricted her potential to make history and that is very unfortunate for all concerned. KB spot on. This is the heart of it for Treve supporters.Her win in the Vermeille disguised the fact that she may not only not run to her Personal Best (PB) but that she might have trouble running to her 2014 level. Nevertheless, she showed enough to prove that if she hadn't been held up and run without cover, thereby forfeiting a lot of her chance (when on the day and ground Longchamp had a pace bias to front end runners), she might have gone very close to winning.That strip of fresh ground along the rail proved the place to be all day. |
|
By:
Don't forget the statements from the trainer and paddock observers that Treve was bigger, stronger than ever before. Expectations were high that she might improve even. People see what they want to see.
|
|
By:
Top Speed rating for GH is 89 (which seems very low) and he has an RPR of 127. Treve has been given an RPR of 120. Last year's Arc she had 126 and 2013 Arc 131. Shows how slow the pace was and how favoured the front end horses were as a result.
|
|
By:
Led, set moderate pace,
The formbook comments for Treve's pacemaker. Could it be that everyone who watched the race knew there was a moderate pace being set except the bloke on top of the horse? Were these in fact the instructions from Head, despite having a mare that needs help to settle and possesses a very good turn of foot? Which apart from being baffling tactics would beg the question why have a pacemaker at all? You would imagine with so much at stake tactics weren't just scribbled on the back of a **** packet at the last minute and if the jockey didn't do as instructed why did the jockey and trainer not refer to the lack of pace in the race afterwards? Do French jockeys actually know much about pace at all? Maybe that's why so many of their races are run at a crawl and as Fabre has said himself many times he comes over here when he wants a decent pace for his horses |
|
By:
Before I read the rest of this excellent thread,
One point for Figgis to consider, she may have won her Prix Diane on G/F, but she's had obvious foot problems since then and to my eye she wasn't letting herself down fully on the very fast finishing straight. Also, big thumbs up to whomever speculated a deal had been made for Godolphin to stand Golden Horn, meant he was going to run even if conditions levelled up between him and Jack Hobbs. |
|
By:
Well if she didn't handle the ground she did remarkably well to finish the race markedly faster than those in front of her and nearly everything else behind. Finishing splits that most fast ground horses would be pushed to better.
|
|
By:
Re: The ride Golden Horn got - well the winner always looks good - but it's no brilliant solution to the wide draw.
In his last races, Golden Horn was sent on, held up and took keen hold, went on. That surely influenced the decision also. But the fact is, holding wide and tracking across does take up precious energy vis-a-vis the jump New Bay and Flintshire got into pretty much the same spot, What is it worth ? Take the air resistance of 3f alone, climbing, and your old friend Pythagaros ! ... maybe a couple of lengths ? Kingston Hill was passed a tired horse, Taghrooda never got as handy a spot, but no question Flintshire and New Bay benefited from the draw and the position they held from the start. Treve has no excuses, Thierry Jarnet's jockeyship was par at worst, she was ridden in her customary manner and had she been the best on the ground she'd have won - had every chance. I said very early in this thread that if the standard was Flintshire + 2L, being how I rated Treve, then I saw a lot of contenders. Her 3yo season was spectacular, but just another in recent years to go from Derby (Oaks) to Arc. et fin. |
|
By:
Figgis, she might have been fastest by miliseconds... but she only gains about a length on Free Eagle in the whole finishing straight, so Im not sure the times prove she liked the ground.
None of us can prove anything, but I've always been of the opinion she is a better horse on softer and Sunday did nothing to alter that. However her biggest downfall was that she didnt settle that well. She was quite free and quite keen throughout, had very little cover on the outside and was forced to go widest of all. For whatever reason Jarnet didnt decide to use the low draw and stay on the inside, anmd that may have cost her. |
|
By:
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/timeform-sectional-debrief-special-arc-weekend-2015-5102015
Figgis, she might have been fastest by miliseconds... but she only gains about a length on Free Eagle in the whole finishing straight, so Im not sure the times prove she liked the ground The final 600m of a 12f race in 33.69, you think a horse can do that when it doesn't entirely act on the ground? |
|
By:
The ride Jarnet give her is a side issue, as whether he went inside or outside it was still going to be extremely difficult to make up that ground off such slow fractions. He would've had to keep her much closer to the pace and that may have caused problems of her settling even worse, so I haven't made an issue of his ride. I'm also not saying she'd have won, personally I don't think she would have. However anybody with even the most amateur grasp of sectional times would concede she'd have gone closer than she did off a better pace.
The real issue is the ride on the pacemaker, this man had one job to do, he had no other concerns than to set a decent pace, he didn't even come close to achieving this. He was either totally incompetent or his instructions and their tactics were abysmal. |
|
By:
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/oct/05/freddy-head-blames-hype-defeat-prix-de-larc-de-triomphe
The Heads on the Treve defeat. A lot of talk about inside or outside, the ground not accepted as an excuse, being too far out offered as a possible explanation but not one mention of the pace of the race, extraordinary. |
|
By:
I didn't say she didn't act on the ground. I said I think she prefers it softer. Not least because it seems to slow her rivals down much less than it does her. I think he makes some valid points about her being trapped out wide though. It was definitely a factor to me, as I posted before.
|
|
By:
Amazed everyone's still focusing on ground, deterioration, ride etc.
It's pretty clear cut to me - she's become unrideable....and if I were Jarnet I'd be more than a little miffed the Heads and others aren't fessing up. |
|
By:
Not sure how a horse that's just won two Gp1s and beaten only 2.5 lengths in an Arc after showing little more than keenness in a slowly run race (a slowly run race that should have been avoidable) can be said to be unrideable, hardly a rodeo act.
|
|
By:
I made no mention of the GPdSC, Figgis. It started in the Vermeille.
Watch the Vermeille (which she didn't need 'riding' to win). Ask yourself why Jarnet draws his whip deep inside the final furlong when miles clear. Watch the Arc (which she did need riding to win). He spent the majority of the straight trying to pull her off Free Eagle. She's unrideable when the chips are down now imo. Interestingly CH had started to say she was better going right-handed. You're not wrong there Criquette. |
|
By:
Watch the Vermeille (which she didn't need 'riding' to win). Ask yourself why Jarnet draws his whip deep inside the final furlong when miles clear.
Well it looked as though he did it to keep her straight from hanging right into the rail. Was this any worse than the abrupt swerve Golden Horn did away from the rail when colliding into Free Eagle towards the end of the Irish Champion Stakes without any obvious explanation? Not for me. He spent the majority of the straight trying to pull her off Free Eagle. She hung slightly to her right into Free Eagle in the straight while she was quickening better than those around her at the same time. She also hung right towards the rail in the straight for her first Arc. Jack Hobbs hung much more in the Derby. Golden Horn hung one way then the other in the International. Gleneagles hung to the rail in the Guineas. This isn't a huge negative for a horse. If Treve's connections had a big change of plan and decided to give her one last swan song in the Champion Stakes and were looking for a jockey I'd bet they'd be queueing up to ride this 'unrideable' horse |
|
By:
Well it looked as though he did it to keep her straight from hanging right into the rail.
Yep. Or maybe try going through the rail. Was this any worse than the abrupt swerve Golden Horn did away from the rail when colliding into Free Eagle towards the end of the Irish Champion Stakes without any obvious explanation? Yep again. Golden Horn hasn't done anything like that before or since, has he? And it was at a track he'd never run at before with various excuses offered subsequently. What are the Treve excuses Figgis? She knows Longchamp better than Soumi ffs! And the pattern of her behavior is that it is getting appreciably worse. She hung slightly to her right into Free Eagle in the straight while she was quickening better than those around her at the same time. She also hung right towards the rail in the straight for her first Arc. Jack Hobbs hung much more in the Derby. Golden Horn hung one way then the other in the International. Gleneagles hung to the rail in the Guineas. This isn't a huge negative for a horse. It might have looked to you as though she 'hung slightly'. This is because Jarnet is putting all his efforts into keeping her straight, knowing the French Rules re interference. Comparisons with races in England and Ireland are erroneous. Comparisons with horses that have done it once and not before or since are also erroneous. If Treve's connections had a big change of plan and decided to give her one last swan song in the Champion Stakes and were looking for a jockey I'd bet they'd be queueing up to ride this 'unrideable' horse Wink  |
|
By:
And it was at a track he'd never run at before
He had run at York before hanging left and right in the International. with various excuses offered subsequently What plausible excuses were these? It might have looked to you as though she 'hung slightly'. This is because Jarnet is putting all his efforts into keeping her straight I seem to remember Dettori having to take similar action to stop Golden Horn hanging into Free Eagle in the Sandown straight. I think it's quite easy to back-fit the earlier signs once the results are known. If Golden Horn had underperformed at Longchamp it would be easy to say the signs were there at Leopardstown, even Freddie Head thought so. |
|
By:
He had run at York before hanging left and right in the International.
The Irish Champion is at Leopardstown Figgis  What plausible excuses were these? Shadows I seem to remember Dettori having to take similar action to stop Golden Horn hanging into Free Eagle in the Sandown straight. Your memory fails you. FE has never run at Sandown and GH certainly didn't hang into whatever horse you're thinking of A La Treve. |
|
By:
I would agree it's easy to back-fit theories though. I try to avoid doing so. Not much point debating them to death as we'll never really know.
|
|
By:
The Irish Champion is at Leopardstown Figgis
Your answer suggested it's excusable if a horse hasn't run at a track before. I'm saying he hung left and right in the International where he had run before. FE has never run at Sandown and GH certainly didn't hang into whatever horse you're thinking of A La Treve Sorry, my mistake, I meant The Grey Gatsby. Golden Horn was definitely showing tendencies to hang into TGG which Dettori was obviously taking action to correct. Whether he interfered with the horse more than Treve interfered with Free Eagle is irrelevant as the hanging tendency was still there and it depends on whether you think Dettori is a stronger jockey than Jarnet, my opinion is that he is. |