Horse Antepost
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St Leger - Ante Post Musings...
St Leger - Ante Post Musings...
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Replies: 142
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buick on bondi beach.
sds on fields of athenry. |
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I don't know if SDS is a good booking or not in that Seamie Heffernan, who is 3/3 on the horse, stays at Leoparstown.
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SDS a good booking for me. Far better jock of the two. Strange AOB arrangements though. Not sure why JOB was never going to ride any of them if Dettori could?
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For me, only 2 horses in the field have shown form worthy of a Leger winner, Storm The Stars and Bondi Beach, the rest look like a bunch of handicappers, although one or two are still open to improvement I suppose. The best horse is obviously STS and normally he'd be a bet at these odds but he's already had 8 runs this year, with many of those being hard, fast run races and particularly concerning is his last latest win also falls into that category. If he can win again here he'll have to be an exceptionally tough 3yo and would be a deserving winner but I'd say it's odds against he even runs close to his best form so I won't be backing him.
Bondi Beach is the fresher horse, has improved at the right time with his latest form behind STS being his best. I reckon there's still some value in his price so he's the one I'm backing. |
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AOB has pulled the jolly. Ground concerns ?
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Commiseration to those on OSG - what a farce!
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o'donoghue now on bondi beach.
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not surprised at all by that - he was always likely to run at the Curragh.
Very little in my mind between Fields of Athenry and Bondi Beach - they'll both be tough to beat. I wouldn't go near Storm the Stars. The O'Brien pair both thrive on the 2f and are still on the upgrade. |
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rain all night surley this was georges for the taking
odd decision really unless they think blondi beach is a good thing |
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Bit of cut won't worry FoA and with OSG out as well I wouldn't be against some rain.
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I may be a little biased due to my ante post wager, BUT. ....
I think this now sets up great by way of race shape for Storm the Stars, can see Fields of Athenry popping out in front, and STS sitting just off him in 2nd, getting a nice trail and then around 2 1/2f out pushing the button and see if he can hold off the late threat from Bondi just as he did at York. Thank goodness they pulled out OSG as I thought he would be the one to do my ante post in !! Good luck all, really enjoyed the comments and let's hope they come back in one piece having had a good fair race - (With STS in front by 20 :) ) |
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I've flip flopped here. Now on Storm the stars, will possibly regret it.
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Thinks STS is way too short at 2/1 all things considered tbg. Loads of tough races this season and is not bred for the trip.
Maybe AOB has pulled out OOSG because he feels he has the race won with one of the other two... |
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Donny's a funny track though. I think you need to travel, not completely convinced a great big horse like Bondi Beach will take to it. Storm the stars I think will relish the track. Not worried about the tough season for Sts, as he's a tough horse anyway.
As you say there's a doubt about the trip, he was leaning into the second last time out, but still Bondi Beach had plenty of chances to go past. Steve Miller the dosage expert in the weekender thinks Sts is the most likely winner so that's good enough for me! |
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Something must be seriously going wrong with O'Brien. Has his bottle gone with his position under threat? Is it him making these choices?
All season some absolute bizarre decisions. Now another one. Withdrawing a horse because the ground's not soft enough even though a deluge of rain is due  |
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And yes I'm pocket talking
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Call me bonkers but I've also had a saver on the French horse. Trainer has already won a classic with Makfi and with rain due he's one of the few sure to get the trip, even if his form isn't quite good enough in theory.
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Gees It's unfortunate, but I doubt it was down to the ground. More likely he felt he had enough ammo for the race already. Maybe like Sint says he already felt the ones he had in their were good enough, or possibly the opposite and he felt none of them are good enough?! I guess we'll find out.
My view with O'Brien though is when he has several options, as he had or has in this case, more likely than not none of them are good enough. Even if the field is somewhat depleted, so it may well be the case that for a classic this might not take much winning. |
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*there
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It's such a poor race they should have moved it to the end of the card and had a decent betting race on CH4 instead.
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At the end of June AOB had 16 horses still in the race...SIXTEEN !!
I'd love it if FOA won and his chance has increased now the race has severely cut up. No bets so far though. |
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I can see this fields of athenry setting a decent clip and it turning into a slog in the home straight.
If that happens Storm the stars could be first to strike but Vengue Masque might just outstay them. Stranger things have happened  |
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I can see FoA not seeing another horse.
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Backed the front two.
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Didn't Mordin used to have a stat whereby you could rule out horses for the St Leger that had already run at further than a mile and half going into the race. The race was won only by those who had been kept to a mile and a half or shorter.
The logic of this I seem to remember was something to do with owners not wanting to ruin the potential stud price of a horse by running it at staying trips, when the breeding world was obsessed with speed, until the day of the big race itself I seem to recall thinking this was one of Mordin's less crazy theories, and although this stat has been busted in recent years (Masterly was the first to do so, and others have followed suit) I still believe it holds some water. In other words Storm the stars has the ideal profile if he can get the trip, placed in both derbies (can you see anything else in this field managing that?) and won a great voltigeur. With a bit of luck this is his time. |
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I have a vague memory of that stat coming out and a Godolphin horse who had won over 2 miles winning the Leger a week later...
Or did I dream that. |
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I've looked it up and it wasn't exactly how I remember... it was Mastery who has finished 3rd in the Queens Vase at Ascot (over 2 mile).
Leading Light also won both races a couple of years back. It's a stat that I struggle with a bit anyway. Not sure how proven stamina can be seen as a negative. |
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Yes I mentioned Masterly in my post. I think Masked Marvel also ran over further than a mile and a half going into the St Leger.
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Well it's not a negative, just that some horses that are certain to stay might lack the class to win the race.
Like the old saying goes about derby horses, if you're sure to get the trip you're not good enough... |
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And horses that have been running over shorter, well they haven't played their hand yet, whereas to some extent Bondi Beach and Fields of Athenry, have already shown their hand over longer distances.
The way Storm the stars ran in both derbies is suggestive of a horse that wants a stamina test, running on but lacking that extra gear to quicken at the business end. 1 mile six might just be the making of him. I also think the sire of Storm the stars deserves a mention- he's been a big race sire over the last couple of years not just with this horse but also with Taghrooda. If Storm the stars wins tomorrow then with his progeny he's won an oaks, king george and a st leger in the last two years, as well as being placed in two derbies A record that the great Galileo himself wouldn't be ashamed by.... |
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Fair enough, not sure how I missed that. MM won over 1m 5f. My only ever Leger winner
 Aye, I wouldn't be against STS prospects of staying tbh. I just think him and Bondi (and OSC before being taken out) where too closely matched on form and priced accordingly/correctly in respect of one another's chances. For that reason I saw it worth looking elsewhere. And FoA appeals to me quite a lot. Reckon a repeat of the Ebor run might even take this...  |
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Strange about Sea The Stars as a sire - yes, there was Taghrooda, a pretty spectacular success story, but I can't help feeling he has been a bit of a disappointment at stud so far - where's the speed?
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backed FOA. GL all.
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4mm overnight and still raining...
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tons of sobs
Date Joined: 29 Jun 08 Add contact | Send message 07 Sep 15 15:38 Joined: 29 Jun 08 | Topic/replies: 492 | Blogger: tons of sobs's blog Rated 108 after her last win...the form (for me) is not good enough.....famous last words. OOPS..............   |
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He's not gone hard enough on FoA there. Was coming back at the end...
Filly surely keeps I. WD any winners. |
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Not so sure about that one...
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Well, I collected but very luckily as I thought the best horse won. Astonished at the amended result, as even though I believe the implementation of the rules has gone too far in leaving nearly every result as it stands I've seen many similar or worse examples left unchanged and this displays a total lack of consistency.
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The second incident is definitely caused by Bondi imo.
Agree there is no way of claiming the best horse didn't win the race, which is basically my interpretation of the rules. The rules really need revising these days. |
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Colm O'Donoghue didn't even seem to think he'd have won regardless.
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