Only just looked at this race which is just as well as the ground has changed dramatically in the last day or two. For me the clock says Penhill,Great Hall,Apterix and Gabrials Star.

Will back the first two each way.

Good luck Kipper.

Waady...so much ability :)

Hate Mark Johnston......unlucky with Watersmeet

sure was, I can never get Johnston right so tend to avoid which can be costly like this race. His horses are so in and out and imo win when at a price, flop when shorter.... Shame Farquhar was so far back during the race after tardy start as couldnt get my in running lay matched as always behind :(

They certainly are thought Watersmeet would go by but?

Excellent selection indeed IDB wish I had got over my Johnston block and followed you in !!

From my experience its better to stick with what you know and how your system works for you...

If you don't back Johnston... that's fine... I have some trainers I don't touch too...

you win some and lose some ...but if your in a profit at the end that's all that counts

Bunbury Cup and john Smiths, two cracking Handicaps. If Lightning Spear runs in either, I will back him. If not, then at the moment I like Jelota in the Bunbury and Arab Dawn in the John Smiths.

The way I profile big handicaps seems to oppose the bookies view in the John Smiths....either Im way wrong or have an edge lol

My shortlist -

Weakest and unlikely to be backed are Odeon and Educate who are both heading towards winning marks again, maybe not quite there yet though
Fahey isnt usually too far away in this and Loving Spirit is difficult to read up in trip
Im surprised Forgotten Hero is 33/1, hes quite tempting at that price if 5 places
I will be backing Haggas in this though and I was waiting eagerly to see who was declared. Homage at 25/1 and Battalion at 20/1 do appeal. Tricky to read, especially Battalion whose form seems to suggest better with cut (dry few days forecast so unlikely)
My main bet and one Ive been waiting for is Voice of a Leader. 20/1 still seems decent and he will carry my main bet in this with savers on the Haggas pair

My likely bets are going to be

50 eway Voice of a Leader
25 win Battalion
25 win Homage

Bunbury Cup looks tougher than this imo, still pondering that one

Bunbury Cup not easy is it ?

Im torn between recent form of Jalotta and One Word More at 14/1 and 16/1 versus the solid handicap form but skinnyish odds of Chil The Kite at 8/1, the in and out Field of Dreams at 25/1 and the potentially well handicapped Horsted Keynes at 25/1

Im thinking

Chill the Kite 40 win at 8/1
Field of Dreams 20 win at 25/1
Horsted Keynes 30 win at 25/1

Tough race

Voice of a Leader my main bet tomorrow hammered in the betting today at around 11/1 12/1

Terrible in big races today :(

Much prefer the jumps Facts so left the flat alone this season. Tried looking at the Cambridgeshire and these were my ramblings to the betting club Im in last week


Tough race, 35 runners, 100/1, 40/1 and 33/1 winners in the past 11 years it’s a lottery !



Some basic  “trends” that might help narrow the field down are



Horses aged 7 and older are 0 from 61 (only a couple of runners this year)

Horses rated 105 + are 1 win in 41 tries along with only 1 winner in 66 tries for horses carrying 9st 6+

At the other end, horses rated lower than 87 are 0 in 81

You also tend to need to not be disgraced last time out as horses outside the last 10 on their last start are 0 from 99

On a lesser note those horses having had more than 8 runs this season already are 0 from 113 (Fire fighting, Bronze Angel, Birdman, Ginger Jack, Gabriels Kaka, Ifwecan, Mistiroc, Obsidian, Artful Prince)



Looking at previous winners, a lot had course form, having won here or placed at least. Another profile view seemed to be horses not winning that regularly but running well enough to be on a career high rating but without be overraced so with a bit more to come rather than horses held back to lower their mark



Bronze Angel has won this twice and won really well again last time that he must be thereabouts but trends say he may be a little too high this time and a lesser raced improver could be the one to look for



Some of the obvious ones are -



I kept looking at Brendan Bracken but no course form and sliding back down the handicap doesn’t typically fit



Nafaqa is a horse I really like and Im sure he is on a decent mark based on some sparkling form but he seems to flatter and get beaten regularly. Also Hills has run 14 in this across the years and only managed a place



Prince Gargarin has good course form but is again dropping down the handicap on recent runs and the trainer 0 from 6 in this



Abseil is popular in the markets but no course form and trainer is 1 place in 11 runners



Earth Drummer is popular, just the lack of course form and trainer 0 from 6 puts me off a little



Master The World is for Elsworth who has won this twice before and has won twice at the course. Im just not sure hes on a winnable mark



Donncha might not be far away but a lack of course form



Halation is closely matched with Educate who I like and has been 2nd at the track in 1 run to date and was on the shortlist



Mussadas is 1 from 1 at the track and wont be far away but Suroor drives me mad with his lack of winners when I back them and he hasn’t even made a place in this from 10 runners



Forgotten Hero was close to being a pick as has fair course form but just not sure it’s the winner



My Dream Boat has shot up 20lb this season already and is going up again soon so well in here in theory but that’s quite a rise



Man of Harlech is again quite fancied but has no course form but trainer has not even a place in 9 runners so far



Third Time Lucky isn’t far off favourite but with no course form and Fahey 1 place in 16 runners he may not be the best bet here at 12/1



My Picks…….



Cant back anything with confidence as so few angles but the ones Im thinking that may run better than the odds suggest are



EDUCATE – won this before, ran well last year and a massive swing in the weights with the winner Bronze Angel. Could easily have been laid out for this with a few poor runs of late 33/1



PORTAGE – looks the form pick and only negative is the lack of course form. Slowly going up the ratings and on a career high, in form and well weighted means he should be thereabouts 12/1



EXPRESS HIMSELF – interesting one, running well, two places in two runs at the course, career high and of interest at 33/1



EXAMINER – weaker pick perhaps, placed at the course, just off career high, trainers first runner. Moved from Haggas earlier this year so just that doubt whether he would have moved if on a great handicap mark ? 80/1



FRANKLIN D – another lesser pick perhaps and not good enough per rating on trends but is running well and on a career high so could pop in 60/1



Doing win only as 35 runners......


3 point win Portage @ 12/1

3 point win Educate @ 33/1

3 point win Express Himself @ 33/1

2 point win Franklin D @ 60/1

2 point win Examiner @ 80/1

Not had the breaks on the draw these past big races during the summer so left alone for the jumps but tried the cambridgeshire above where Portage ran a great race from those drawn high to place 5th and Examiner the best of those down the middle to place third as the low drawn horses pinched the other places.  Tough race again here with so many runners and plenty of hard luck stories Im sure.
Taking a broad brush approach.....dismissing these due to trainers having several runners in the past with no success (much prefer a trainer who regularly targets specific races)
Out based on trainer those trained by Pipe, Prescott, Morrison, Fahey, Varian, Moore, Beckett, Williams, Ellison, Balding.....thats half the field gone....

Horses with 8 or more season runs have a very poor record with no wins and only 7 places from almost 120 runners so goodbye - Gavlar, Wordiness, One More Go and Saved by the Bell from those left

So the rest

Heartbreak City - trainer does really well in this and jockey combination do really well. Won well last time coming from way back and finding gaps to win going away. Must have a big chance but slightly dampened by 5 years olds having a really poor record compared to other age groups (1 win in 134 tries.  All ages have won so cant see why this is too much of a worry

Quick Jack - not many win this off the back of a well beaten run and from a pure handicapping perspective I just dont see him on a winnable mark although he always runs really well in these big races with an admirable record

Renneti - many like this but it takes a big step up from form shown so far although obviously from a powerful yard who dont send many to this race. I much prefer horses who have done it in big fields and the biggest field that this one has won was a mere 8 runner race. Also, as mentioned before poor run last time out

Bayan - Such an interesting horse. I was heavily on this when winning the Ladbroke as the trainer had a 100% record with his runners in that race. My big positive is the horse flat rating compared to his hurdles rating. Over jumps he gives Quick Jack a stone, on flat he gets 17lb. Quick JAck is second favourite so this one could easily be thrown in here. The only thing that tempers enthusiasm is that he has had this lowly flat mark before but not delivered

Oriental Fox - a trainer I always get wrong but capable of a big race here and would not be surprised to see this one there at the death for historically a good draw and for a trainer who has won this 3 times before

Noble Silk - better handicapped than most for sure so has a chance but bombed in this last year and came off the bridle quite soon last time out. A few too many negatives maybe

Cassells Rock - another one from the eyecatching Tony Martin yard. Favourite in the trial won by Low Key and showed nothing at all being well beaten. If anyone could have a different horse turn up tomorrow it would be Martin but was beaten such a long way and a race like this plus jockey bookings suggest Heartbreak City is the one

Arty Campbell - decent chance at the weights when compared to Gavlar and Teak and a trainer to be respected in staying handicaps Llewellyn has his first runners in this. Only a reserve though but could be a lively outsider if getting in

Rite to Reign - interesting first runner and not without a chance but not sure running well enough at the moment. Only 2 horses won this being worse than 7th last time out

Grumeti - Alan King sending horses to this is quite eyecatching and they have to be respected. Not much to say on its chances really as much better known in the NH field but trainer alone makes me want to have this onside

Stonecutter - not one that many would look at but I do find this one quite interesting. Hanging right down the bottom and only a reserve I backed at triple figure odds antepost but in essence unlikely to get in. I find it quite interesting that the horse has been put away for so long since being hampered and not getting the run of the race against a Gosden horse who subsequently placed in group company and is rated just over 100.

Big Thunder - not easy to dismiss but never seemed to quite do it on the big field races and 8th last time is a slight negative (albeit borderline !)

Norab - doesnt look to be the best handicapped but alot of AW form so difficult to read

First Mohican - Not sure how good this horse is. Could be badly handicapped, could have more class than shown so far and of interest as with Grumeti as representing the King yard.

My bets

Bayan
Heartbreak City
Grumeti
First Mohican

Stonecutter if gets in

Well done !

Thanks

Been out this afternoon so missed the racing and that didnt go very well... carnage at the 4th destroyed my Munster hopes and Sea Pride could only manage a third as Mullins "second string" busted the age stats angle winning at 8

16s with a couple of bookies now too

Good call KipperRSA

WP....Not the easiest trainer to predict shall we say.
The horse of VW in the 1-45 warrants a second glance,needs further and might be better left handed,judged on his run from Jan 2015 he remains very well handicapped

Good luck for the season.