Im missing the mark at these big races but felt Elishpour didnt get the run of the race for a trainer with marvellous strike rate in that race and picking the wrong Mullins horse for another trainer with a great rate in that race plus yesterday Chilli Kite and American Hope finished well to get in the places. Personally I thought the mark of GM Hopkins had gone a tad too high to win a race like this and had temptress on my shortlist but tend to veer more towards horses around 20/1 in these big races looking for value. I think todays Britannia is impossible with little angles to help me reduce the field and alot of closely matched form. The only pointer is you typically want a horse coming off the back of a win or place last time out and just the two season runs. Mutakarez and Capel Path are probably priced about right then but with so few pointers an upset wouldnt surprise me so going slightly against the above in some respects I have backed to small eways Dancetrack, Heartbreak Hero and Rotherwick with PP to get 6 places. The 535 has quite a high place strike rate for Bin Suroor and the Stoute yards so they look worth close inspection. I therefore think Keep in Line at around 25/1 on a 5 place market is a fair bet. Good luck

Wokingham - I had this down to Telmeyd, Zalty, Dinkum Diamond and Dutch Masterpiece.....with the first two out, I'm adding Tatlisu to Dinkum Diamond and Dutch Masterpiece. Dutch Materpiece has some fantastic 2 yo form so any signs of back to his bet and he could be well in here at 40/1.... won a group 3 before being favourite and disappointing in the G1 Abbaye and done nothing since but dropped 10lb and visored first time on Saturday....must be worth a shot with PP giving 6 places

Friday - 5pm race - decent bet this week for me on Arab Dawn at 7/1 with 5 places on offer, must be thereabouts surely !  Ill also be backing to much smaller stakes Famous Kid at 33/1 again as 5 places on offer. The 535 race looks like Aloft could be work taking on.....lots of trends against it but Ryan Moore, say no more..... back to the trends, not many have tried but only 1 from 7 has even placed having been off the track more than 90 days, the draw....only 1 horse has won from the last 79 to try and overcome a draw higher than 8 in this race. But shocks are also rare with 99 horses starting >12/1 all losing. The usual big guns do well here Stoute, O Brien and Mark Johnston so I'm temped to look towards Bantry Bay and Yarrow

Well done with Arab Dawn.

Short listed three for Wokingham

Intrinsic
Algar Lad
Huntsmans  Close

Dutch Masterpiece pulled out grrr....

Another place....

Northumberland Plate......I had 4 but Taws not made it in the final decs.  The draw a little unkind too to a couple of them but Im on Aramist 25/1, Quest For More 12/1 and Oasis Fantasy 12/1.  Strangely 4 and 6 year olds do really well but 5 year olds struggled....odd but hopefully that wont hold this year as two of my selections are 5

and Aramist again at 25/1 Betway 4 places. Need a winner not a place this time !

I wouldn't let that put you off...

THanks chaps, its just I was thinking the thread may contain more discussion but I think the specific big race threads supersede this one

Quick recap as hit the bar a few times and had a few main picks missing the cut / pulled out plus I rarely back below 10/1 and most are 20/1 + and there are 25/1 and 50/1 winners elsewhere on this forum from me and I dont post often other than this thread now

Scottish National - one of two main fancies pulled out (gallant oscar who was on watchlist) other picks unsighted
Bet 365 - 3rd 4th 5th.....
Chester Cup - Altaayil missed the cut (on my watchlist), Duke of Clarence was given little chance after being drawn widest of all, ran ok in midfield, backed Trip to Paris who won but couldnt post here that day
Victoria Cup - Bertiewhittle pulled out, Baraweez big punt from 33/1 to 10/1 but midfield
Epsom Dash - Desert Law won for me at 25/1, Boom The Groom placed, Confessional nowhere
Ascot Stakes - Elishpour hampered but placed at 33/1 other two behind
Hunt Cup - Buckstay not declared (on my watchlist) so backed Chil The Kite hampered but 3rd at 16/1, American Hope 33/1 finished well to get 6th with Paddy Power paying 6 places, Munaaser a Stoute stinker again at Ascot
Britannia Stakes - Dancetrack pulled out, Rotherwick a place in 5th at 20/1 the other unsighted
King George - Keep in LIne 25/1 awful
Wokingham - main fancies on watchlist pulled out (Telmeyd, Zalty, Dutch Masterpiece) Backed Dinkum Diamond and Tatlisu who were poor, Robert Le Diable saved the day in 2nd
Duke of Edinburgh - my biggest bet of the week and a rare bet at under 10/1 in a big handicap Arab Dawn wins well for me at 7/1. Famous Kid hampered and so close to being in the 5 places at 33/1
Northumberland Plate - Taws not declared so on Aramist, Oasis Fantasy who were poor and the winner Quest For More at 12/1

Already working on Old Newton, John Smiths and Bunbury

Hi Stevo.....this is where I am on the Old Newton.....

Big negatives are horses who raced a week ago or less so out are Notarised, Mighty Yar (liked the form of this one too), the two Gabrials, Saoi
Also out is Windshear off such a high mark (although dropping lately and I struggle to get Hannon and Johnston horses right !)
Out are Johnstons as he is 1 winner from 26 in this so hardly targets it....
I'm not liking the form of Fractal, Lungarno Palace, Pressure Point, Curbyourenthusiasm, Apterix
First race in a while is usually a negative too but I'm not easily dismissing Battersea but dumping Excellent Result, Wadi Al Hattawi
Im not sure on John Reel re trip and fast ground so dropping
Farquhar is interesting from a yard I like and first runner in this, just seems to be better with cut ?
Elbereth won really well last time but has an awful lot more to do in this so not for me
Kinema again, not one Im sure of, good enough ?

My shortlist.....
Astronerous - some amazing form of late against solid horses must run a race and be thereabouts
Battersea - did really well last year before a stinker at Newmarket and seasonal debut is negative but definitely has ability
Great Hall - runs quite well when firm in the ground although last race wasnt too good but was season debut and means 10lb better with Notarised here
Nancy From Nairobi - always runs into a "good one" but seems way overpriced to me at 33/1 ?! Not sure what I'm missing here and expected 16/1 so has to be a bet if running. Only beaten 6 l in G2 Ribblesdale, ran Mahsoob to a neck off levels (Mahsoob now OR 111 and Nancy 95), much better off with Elbereth too for a couple of lengths yet Elbereth 14/1
Penhill - yard dominated this years ago, less so now though but always worth keeping runners close

So.....

Have to bet Astronereus more of a saver though for me at 7/1 ish. I think Penhill may be short enough for what its achieved too so no bet. Battersea I will reluctantly pass by due to lack of recent run but will revisit if one of selections doesnt run. Great Hall at 16/1+ is a bet for me as is Nancy from Nairobi at 33/1

Likely to bet something like

Nancy From Nairobi 25 eway
Great Hall 40 win
Astronerous 60 win

Indeed Watersmeet has every right to be up close to my pick Astronerous, just with Astronerous coming out on top when they meet and having less runs there maybe more improvement to come but with a small swing in the weights there shouldnt be much between them again

Worth waiting for decs/nrnb Stevo re Nancy as entered Fri, Sat and at York the week after

The decs and odds swings have changed my approach to this race...

Astronerous not declared, 7lb claimer booked for Nancy for Nairobi weakens confidence dramatically. A huge shortening on Battersea and Penhill as low as 4/1 ?!

Some poor value imo so my final bets will be

20 win Mighty Yar @ 12/1
25 win Great Hall @ 20/1
20 win Farquhar @ 16/1
5 eway Nancy from Nairobi @ 33/1

Aha, maybe I am on the wrong one, hopefully if mine lose you get the winner ! Re Nancy, as I said, I thought the horse was well in when compared to Mahsoob and Elbereth and not needing 7lb off its back. My doubt was the trip as seemingly much better over 10F than 12f ? Jockey booking put me right off ! Ive liked Great Hall all along, have doubts around Mighty Yar and Farquhar but much rather be on them at decent odds than taking chance on fitness (Battersea) or ability (Penhill) at 4/1 and 6/1

Ill probably give Notarised a chance for the Old Newton Cup - he has a nice racing weight Silvestre on board... horse runs a bad race/ good race pattern...

Johnston horses difficult to predict bur id take a chance on him at 20/1

Few non runners around, Mighty Yar pulled out yesterday so replaced with a tenner on Kinema in Old Newton at 17/1 on here, leaves me with Farquhar and Great Hall and my eway on Nancy

Dutch Masterpiece on my watchlist out of the group race, Taws on my watchlist for being well handicapped badly treated in a listed race so not for me, although had eway double on Waady and Havana Beat at around 5/2 each