I guess you're against Shaneshill then as the former is not in the comp.

Yep, could be a blessing in disguise.

Don Cossack possibly going straight to Cheltenham, so good for some (not us)!

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=615089&r_date=2014-12-19#raceTabs=lc

Josses Hill entered up Friday at Ascot.

Williamhill are pricing up the Christmas hdl;
Faugheen 8/11
The New One 1/1
Interpret that which ever way you want, but to me those are mighty generous odds for Faugheen if you knew the latter wasn't going to turn up. I would bet without insight that the odds of them just meeting over Christmas was odds against, especially if you have listened to the Twistons. Yet those odds would suggest Hills no more than we do, then again they are the sponsors....may well be paying appearance money. hmmmmm interesting. Thoughts please.

The signs are very much in favour of The New One turnning up, where else does he go in January. Prize money for second would be more than any win anywhere in Jan. They didnt go hell to leather at Cheltenham so cant say he had a hard race. Has to go.

I think it's definitely a good thing if the New One goes in it for us, although no big deal if he doesn't as we have Irving in every line and Faugheen in 50%, so would be pretty confident of scooping 35pts whatever happens really.

Simonsig out of the KG, and apparently having training problems. I'd say it's actually odds against that we'll see him this season tbh, which although would be a shame, would be good for us as we made that late decision to dodge him. Sprinter's next intended target is now Ascot instead of Kempton, so again you'd be a bit worried about his well being currently.

Obviously a huge period over Christmas for us. The horses in the competition in the Welsh National are Shotgun Paddy, Monbeg Dude, Unioniste and Rigadin de Beuchene. We have the first two of those, so would be great if one of them could win it. Would be slightly annoying if Unioniste wins, as we had Black Thunder and Sam Winner in as possible WN horses, so for another Nicholls horse to win would be slightly galling.

With over a week to go and you dont even know the entries yet your pretty sure of 35 points. This race has prize money of nearly £2,000 for 6th place, which certainly pays for the expenses of turning up and with little or knowhere else to go you can bet this will be fairly competative. I can see a Sign Of Victory turning up, who you may remember was backed significantly in the week prior to being withdrawn because of the ground in Irving race, so he must be raring to go.
In the 41 races since its inception only 3 horses have gone on to win the Champion hurdle. Nicky Henderson has won the race most times (6) moreover he has won the last 4 runnings.

The New One misses Kempto...

Twiston-Davies said: "We're going to miss Kempton and the plan is to go to Haydock on January 17, all being well.

"I just think it's better spacing for us. It gives him more time after his last run and he doesn't have so long to wait for the Champion Hurdle."

Thanks very much. Really helpful. Still can't work out how you see what horses the leaders have though. Am I just being thick?

Disappointing that TNO misses Kempton, I hope Faugheen now takes in the Irish CH en route to Chelt now, but I suspect he won't.

No, open your message box.

^no it won't because Hawkes Point is n't in the competition and he's already said he does n't have Unioniste who is so it can only be good news for him at least as far as the monthly is concerned - you already highlighted that many of the leaders have SP,MD and Unioniste so if the latter is a non runner it can only be to the advantage of those who have the first two but not Unioniste.

If a horse who is n't in the competition wins the Welsh National that helps those who don't have a Welsh National horse in their lists for the monthly - but even then runner up points for the Welsh National could be crucial to the outcome of the monthly comp (or not!).

That's pretty easy to understand unless you're a very poor wind up merchant I would have thought.

Hawkes Point still quoted by all the bookmakers. Where did you read that he had been scratched.

As the entries stand for both those races and using dmutants confidence in the outcome if I may; then I have both the 35 points in those bonus races, whats more i have them together.

Incidentally I dont have any issues with dmutant2, I welcome his honest input to this thread. Why else would I offer him the knowledge of how to see the leaders horses.

I'd have more confidence in the Christmas Hurdle points than the Welsh National points purely because of the nature of the races but I agree that mentally counting the points before the races happen is potentially setting yourself up for disappointment - strange things happen, was n't too many years ago that Punjabi fell in Christmas Hurdle having been sent off 11/8 fav before going on to win Champion Hurdle three months later at 22/1 - there were only 7 runners that year and three of them fell.

yep, that's the sort of race that could make a difference I s'pose - Saphir Du Reu in lots of list but probably only worth 10 points,Carraig Mor in few lists but potentially worth 18 points.

I finished second in TTF flat in July and missed out on £5k so I feel your pain. I needed either Toormore to win or Toronado to be out of the fame at Glorious Goodwood but neither ever seemed likely so I was n't too disappointed. I only did 5 entries for a small interest so it's not the be all and end all.

Good luck with the prize, sounds like you have a decent chance - looks like somebody on here might well win at least.

Survived the Welsh National!

The overall leader is praying for Boston Bob to wrap up the monthly, he sadly has Oscar Whisky in that group too.
Four of the five on 143 want Sam Winner, if he wins then they will draw out the hat for the monthly and one of them has duplicated his line.

Yep, playing the long game.